Pandemic lockdown was a catalyst to rethink why and how we work – how we work personally, how we contribute to teams, how we work for and as organisations and ecosystems.

Hybrid working, obviously – but also more flexible to fit with your life, more collaborative across geographic borders, more access to resources and new work tools like Miro, more multi-tasking, less commuting, more empowered, less formality, more deep work.

Remote working was not the answer. It brought frustrations – the lack of socialisation, of a team home, the intensity of being “always on”, the seeming lack of purpose and importance given of business given else was happening in the world, and then going back traditional organisations seemed too rigid and hierarchical, and “the great resignation” followed.

Now, as companies look beyond the pandemic, many are adapting to new hybrid models – hybrid in the sense of home and work, hybrid in the sense of employed and freelance, hybrid in the sense of work and lifestyle.

The future of work, however,  is a much bigger question – the search for meaning, the shift towards organic organisations, working in partnerships and ecosystems, rewards beyond money, portfolio working as a norm, finding new ways to engage young people, harnessing digital tools for efficiency, and humanity for imagination.

The disruption, and experiment, has allowed companies and individuals to reimagine how we work.

Work Recoded

“The future of work” was already a huge question before Covid ever hit. Digitally-enabled transformation of every market and organisation demands that business thinks, adds value and works in new ways. Fast and connected, automated or augmented, collaborative ecosystems and empowered teams, gig workers and multi careers, more flexible, more hybrid, more human.

Haier, the world leader in home appliances, is a ecosystem of 10,000 micro-enteprises, highly innovative and incentivised. Google did a huge study into what made teams effective, and transformed its ways of working as a result. Haufe, the German electronics engineer, has a bi-annual employee vote to agree the CEO. Dutch homecare organisation Buurtzorg empowers people to work how they judge best to achieve team goals.

The World Economic Forum’s Future of Work agenda, updated annually, creates a strong vision of a rapidly changing world of work, most significantly driven by the fourth industrial revolution, the challenge of technology, but also the imperative for human ingenuity. My new book Business Recoded builds on this, connecting it with other ideas such as Laloux’s reimagined organisations, Haier’s “rendanheyi” devolved structure, and Google Aristotle’s safe and extreme teaming:

  • Future-proofed organisations – simple, flat and agile structures – connecting people and partners
  • Align new technologies and skills – augmenting and enabling people to add more beyond process and machine
  • Work portfolios – everyone is a project worker, internally or gig-working, lifelong learning and evolving
  • Doing meaningful work – more purposeful, more responsible, more valued outcomes, particularly for GenZ
  • Human-centric leadership – organisations as platforms to enable people to achieve their potential

The pandemic’s disruption has accelerated this shift. Without choice, we all found ourselves experimenting with new environments, new tools, new ways of working.

Deloitte’s Global Human Capital Trends report for 2021 focuses on the shrift from surviving to thriving, both in the sense of surviving the pandemic and thriving as we emerge, but also a more general complacency in business, to choose stability over change.  It highlights 5 big trends:

  • Designing work for wellbeing (and the end of the work/life balance or separation)
  • Unleashing human potential (beyond skills, enabling new mindsets and freedoms)
  • Building superteams (power of teams, and using tech to augment the humanity)
  • Adaptive strategies (embracing uncertainty, to make better decisions, with agility)
  • Rearchitecting organisations (enterprise-wide mindset, more fluid, connected and human)

One of the most insightful analysis of what is happening comes from Microsoft, and while they clearly have a Teams-centred tech view of of the digital workspace, they are also an organisation of 166,000 people across the world. Over the last two years I have seen at first hand how they are rapidly embracing a new work style, physical and virtual, not just where, but why and how their people approach work.

Microsoft’s report (see below) has key messages including “leaders are out of touch … productivity masks exhaustion … GenZ most at risk … authenticity drives well-being … innovation in danger … talent is everywhere”.

Teal organisations, hybrid models, B corporations, extreme teams, psychological safety, meta jobs, soft skills, project centric, GenZ engagement, new work contracts, portfolio working, employee democracy, human-tech augmentation, and much more.

I call it “Work Recoded”:

Future Work

By 2025 the majority of workers will be freelance individuals working around the world, independent of distance or background. They will apply their human, emotional, and creative skills to solve ever-more complex problems. They have the hunger to keep learning throughout their lives, the agility to keep adapting and updating their skills, and the open-mindedness to see things differently.

Modern and high-tech working environments are enhanced by a community feeling with shared facilities and resources. Many of the workers are not even employed by the companies, instead they are happier to remain freelance “gig-workers” working on projects that require specialist inputs. New ideas, new skills, new innovations and new opportunities swirl around in the creative atmosphere, and new partnerships often emerge out of the fusion. This is the new world of work. No jobs for life. Few permanent roles. Fluid job descriptions. Multiple jobs at the same time. And companies working together.

Some of the jobs of the future will be highly technical, whilst others will be much more human. In exploring the jobs of the future, Ben Pring from Cognizant explores 4Es to consider the skills required:

  • Eternal skills: Some human skills have existed since our very beginning. No matter how brilliant our technologies become, these human skills, along with many others, will be of value through eternity.
  • Enduring skills: The ability to sell has always been important. Other such enduring abilities – being empathetic, trusting, helping, imagining, creating, striving – will always be needed. Such skills will be central to jobs of the future.
  • Emerging skills: New skills for the future relate to the complexity, density and speed of work. The skill to use a 315mb Excel spreadsheet, or to navigate a drone virtual cockpit. These will enhance our ability to utilise new machines.
  • Eroding skills: Many skills that used to be special are now normal, to manage a social media platform, to product a fantastic presentation, whilst others are redundant like photocopying or replaced like data entry.

However the World Economic Forum suggests that more jobs will be created than lost, 133 million created and 75 million lost over the 5 years to 2025, as we see a huge evolution in the workplace of what people do, as well as how they do it. Top emerging jobs will include:

  • Data analysts and scientists
  • AI and machine learning specialists
  • Software and application developers
  • Sales and marketing professionals
  • Digital transformations specialists

Beyond technology, data and AI, many new roles will also emerge in the broader aspects of engineering and sustainable development. The growth in elderly will drive a boom in care work, and many more creative roles will emerge through relentless innovation and more human pursuits, like sport and entertainment.

Completely new jobs in specific industries will emerge such as

  • Flying car developers
  • Virtual identity defenders
  • Tidewater architects
  • Smart home designers
  • Joy adjutants

Analysis by BCG in 2020 shoes that 95% of most at risk workers could find good quality, higher paid jobs, if they are prepared to make the transition. This shift also offers the opportunity to close the wage gap, with 74% of women and 53% of men likely to find higher paid roles.  It suggests that around 70% of those affected will need to make a significant shift in job, requiring a huge skills revolution.

At the same time, it is not just about refitting people for new jobs. The “dandelion principle”, embraced by organisations like SAP, starts by hiring great people with a diversity of backgrounds and skills to create a richer talent base. It then seeks to build jobs around people, rather than people around jobs, in a more symbiotic way.

More human, more creative, more female

As machines take on our more physical skills, the opportunity is for people to be liberated from the drudgery of repetitive tasks to add more human, creative and emotional value. Imagination will drive progress, whilst machines sustain efficiency.

Human skills matter not only within the workplace, but also in engaging with consumers. In a world of automated interfaces, brands will differentiate  on their ability to be more intuitive, empathic and caring. The roles of people, assistants in stores, nurses in hospitals, teachers in classrooms, will be to add-value with premium levels of service.

Creative skills are not only in demand in the areas of communication, marketing and innovation, but also in rethinking how organisations can better work, how business models can be transformed, and machines themselves deployed in better ways.

Typically these “softer” skills are what we could call more “female” attributes. Of course, that is to stereotype genders, but it certainly requires more empathy than apathy, intuition than evidence, influence than instruction, care than control. At the same time it requires men to adopt these behaviours too, and in general to embrace inequalities and diversity.

BCG’s 2020 research suggests that analytical and critical thinking skills will be crucial to the future of the work, alongside more emotional intelligence and social influence. Learning and creative capabilities will be the most significant growth areas for development in the coming years. They identified these priorities:

  • Analytical thinking and innovation
  • Active learning and learning strategies
  • Creativity, originality and initiative
  • Technology design and programming
  • Critical thinking and analysis
  • Complex problem-solving
  • Leadership and social influence
  • Emotional intelligence
  • Reasoning, problem-solving and ideation
  • Systems analysis and evaluation.

Meta skills, rather than technical or specialist skills which we may have trained for or focused on in the past, will become more significant. These are the more enduring skills which  allow us to evolve and adapt to relentless change. Sensemaking, learning to learn, coping with uncertainty and change.

Sometimes this will require us to unlearn first, to let go of old assumptions and prejudices, and open our minds to new possibilities and perspectives.

In “The 100 Year Life” Lynda Gratton recognises that as life expectancy moves beyond 100, most of us will work for longer, and transition more often, with around seven different phases in our career journeys – not just new jobs, but entirely new vocations.

Future Organisations

Qingdao is the home of Haier, the world’s leading home appliances business. Over the years, the company’s CEO Zhang Ruimin has become an innovator not only of washing machines and refrigerators, but of organisations and entrepreneurship too.

Once a devotee of the “six sigma” approach, Zhang has developed his own management ideology: rendanheyi. By dividing a company up into micro-enterprises on an open platform and dismantling the traditional “empire” management system, rendanheyi creates “zero distance” between employee and the needs of the customer.

At the heart of rendanheyi is the cultivation of entrepreneurship – by removing the costly level of middle management (Zhang famously eliminated the positions of 10,000 employees), you encourage innovation, flexibility and risk-taking.

The quantum mechanics of business

On meeting, we quickly found a common background, having both studied physics, and specifically quantum mechanics. I was curious about how he had embraced the ideas of physical science into his vision of how Haier should work as an organisation. We quickly got into a passionate, and somewhat technical discussion about atomic structure and wave theory. Whilst I’m not sure atomic physics would be many business people’s ideal topic, I was intrigued.

“When I first studied physics, I was amazed by the perpetual motion of subatomic particles. Electrons and protons coexist in a dynamic equilibrium, created by their equal and opposite charges. This sustains a continual existence, it enables atoms to come together in many different formats as molecules, each with their own unique properties, and within these atomic structures is huge amounts of energy”.

The application to business becomes clear, and also much of the founding ideas behind why and how he has developed his rendanheyi model of entrepreneurial businesses.

“Applying this idea from physics to business” he says “small teams of people with different backgrounds, skills, and ideas, can co-exist incredibly effectively. It is the ability to create small diverse teams where ideas and actions are equally dynamic, that enables a business to sustain over time. They become self-organising and mutually enabling. Ideas, innovation and implementation are continuous. And they can easily link with other teams, like atoms coming together as molecules, for collaborative projects and to create new solutions.”

As a result, he challenges the old supremacy of shareholders in the value equation, putting a premium on employees, and the value created by them and for them. However, at the same time, he recognises the need to empower employees to be more customer intimate. As a result, the rate of growth has risen from 8% to 30% in recent years.

 “People are not a means to an end, but an end in themselves. We took away all of our middle management. Now things are working much better. Zero signature, zero approval. Now we have only one supervisor, which is the customer.”

Haier’s evolution has been rapid and relentless, as Zhang has driven the company from an old refrigerator factory – where indiscipline and poor quality was so rife that he took to shock tactics, taking a sledge hammer to some of the products to demonstrate that such mediocrity was no longer acceptable – to a pioneer of digital tech.

In the 1990s, Haier focused on the Chinese market, building a portfolio of high-quality standardised products. The 2000s was about internationalisation, reaching across the world, and then adding more localisation and customisation. The 2010s have been all about digitalisation, embracing the power of automation and data, to the point where Haier is now one of the world’s leading producers of “smart” products, embedded with Internet of Things, IoT, and connected intelligently.

However, the implications are profound. Today, Haier is not motivated by seeking to create the best product. With a brand purpose that seeks to make people’s lives better, it looks beyond products to services, to how it can do more to help people live in their everyday lives, with a focus on the intelligent home.

“In a digital world of globalization, connectivity and personalization, there is no such thing as a perfect product. People will buy scenarios, or concepts, where the products might be free and act as enablers for services. Haier’s products embrace IoT to ensure that they connect with other devices, with other partners in our ecosystems, and with people and their homes. In the future, maybe the product will be free, and people will pay for services – from food delivery, to home entertainment, security or maintenance.”

Organisations as living organisms

The way we manage organisations seems increasingly out of date.

Most employees are disengaged. Too often work is associated with  dread and drudgery, rather than passion or purpose.

Leaders complain that their organisations are too slow, siloed and bureaucratic for today’s world. Behind the façade and bravado, many business leaders are deeply frustrated by the endless power games and politics of corporate life.

Frédéric Laloux offers an alternative. In his book “Reinventing Organizations” he uses the metaphor of an organisation as a living system, with radically streamlined structures that facilitate active involvement and self-management.

He envisions a new organisational model, which is self-managed, built around a “wholeness” approach to life and work, and guided by an “evolutionary purpose”.

Wholeness means that people strive to be themselves, rather than putting on a mask when they go to work. This, he argues can only be achieved when they let go of the idea of “work-life balance” which encourages a compromise. By aligning personal and organisational purpose and passions, you have less stress, and contribute more.

Evolutionary purpose means that meaning and direction of the business is not defined from above but drawn from what feels right amongst people. It might be articulated in a manifesto which defines the actions most admired, the new projects that receive the most interest. And it is constantly evolving, as both the culture inside, and world outside, evolve too.

Laloux describes humanity as evolving in stages. Inspired by the philosopher Ken Wilber, he describes five stages of human consciousness, with associated colours, and proposes that organizations evolve according to these same stages. They are:

  • Impulsive (red): Characterised by establishing and enforcing authority through power, eg mafia, street gangs. For business, this is reflected in the functional boundaries, and top down authority.
  • Conformist (amber): The group shapes its own beliefs and value. Self-discipline, shame and guilt, are used to enforce them, eg military, religion. For business this means replicable processes, and defined organizations.
  • Achievement (orange): The world is seen as a machine, seeking scientifically to predict, control and deliver, eg banking, MBA programs. For business this means Innovation, analytics and metrics, and accountability
  • Pluralistic (green): Characterised by a sense of inclusion, to treat all people as equal, more like a family, eg non-profits. For business this means a values-driven culture, empowerment and shared value.
  • Evolutionary (teal): The world is seen as neither fixed nor machine, but a place where everyone is called by an inner purpose to contribute, eg holocracy. For business this means self-management and wholeness.

Most organisations today are “orange”, still driven by analysis and metrics, driving profitability and growth. Examples of “green” organisations include Apple, Ben & Jerry’s, Starbucks. Examples of “teal” organisations might be Patagonia, Buurtzorg and Morning Star.

The end of hierarchy

What replaces the old hierarchies of organisations?

Henry Ford built his organisation for stability, efficiency and standardisation. Clearly defined processes and controls ensured that it worked like a machine, no space for deviance or change. Some decades later, Kaori Ishikawa went further to systemise the approach with total quality management, seen as the secret of Japan’s industrial success in the late 20th century. Efficiency was the goal, not creativity.

However, today’s world requires a different approach. Business needs to be fast and adaptive to a world of change. Technology has transformed the roles of people inside organisations, automating processes, adding intelligent systems, and digital interfaces. The value of organisations lies in its ideas, reputation and reach. Organisations embrace the connectedness of the outside world, technology enabling knowledge sharing, fast decision making, and collaborative working.

Flat organisations became fast and agile, putting customers at their heart. Yet this is all structural, and did not in itself create difference. In a world where businesses could essentially do anything, they have become more purposeful, and also more distinctive in their character and beliefs.

Expert teams don’t need the old controls. Empowered and enabled, they become more self-managing, and teams collectively work together towards a higher purpose and strategic framework that guides but doesn’t prescribe. As a result, the business develops a human-like consciousness. It resembles a complex adaptive system, where there is a wholeness built on multiple non-linear connections, combining progress with agility.

Buurtzorg, like Haier, is a great example of self-managing teams. The Dutch healthcare business provides home support to elderly people. It recognised that local teams, which acted largely autonomously had a much great commitment to their work, than if they were managed centrally using standard efficiency metrics.

Haufe Group is an innovative media and software business in Freiburg, in the heart of Germany’s Black Forest. As an organisation they have long put people first, sharing in the development of strategy, and the rewards of success. When it came to appointing a new CEO, the company realised that this couldn’t just be imposed on such a democratic structure, and so now holds elections to find who amongst peers will be the leader.

If, as Peter Drucker said, “the purpose of an organisation is to enable ordinary human beings to do extraordinary things” then organisations must evolve to make this possible.

More useful links

Walk into the new Amazon Style fashion store in Santa Monica and you are guided by your smartphone through a truly personal, interactive, realtime shopping experience – as good as an online experience, better because it is 3 dimensional, human and sensory too. You’re guided to recommendations, can quickly try on design with your avatar, and one-click buy and ship home.

Sit down at home and dream of an interior by selecting the IKEA Place app, pointing the camera at your room then imagining what could be. Augmented reality, it might be, but a few clicks and you are quickly replacing your sofa with the latest Swedish design chic, adding wallpaper and lighting, cushions and curtains. Click to order wait to arrive.

Immerse yourself in the online gaming environment of Roblex, and you can browse in Gucci Garden, an entirely virtual format of Gucci’s store and museum, where you can buy digital handbags for your avatar, but real ones too (often cheaper), and deliver next day. You could head over to Nikeland for a virtual workout, but actually with physical friends, who you connected with in the gym.

Time for some entertainment, and you could find Justin Bieber‘s next gig is in the metaverse rather than a huge stadium. IN fact Fortnite, became the place for music stars to launch new albums, and put on concerts during the pandemic. And it continued afterwards. But if you want a real event, head to London’s ABBA Voyage concert, where you can dance the night away to four avatars on stage.

Liquifying the CX

Physical and digital is an old idea. This is not a choice, physical or digital. Today, they are the same thing.

“Liquid” experiences are more than “hybrid”, more than “omni”-channel, more than “phygital” (strange word!).

They flow seamlessly in their format between physical, sensory moments and digital, intelligent moments. They are neither one nor the other, but both. They combine the best of being human, with the enabling power of data and technologies.

In reality, this has always been the case. Even the most digital experiences, still require us to engage with it, at least in a Web1 or Web2 world. But we still liked to refer to solutions as either digital or physical. Think of retail, or banking, or entertainment. We have Netflix or a movie theatre, but imagine if both were part of one enhanced experience.

A liquid state, as any student physicist will tell you, is that state in between a solid and a gas. It has properties which are similar to both – it is visible, finite, bordered (like a solid) – but takes the shape of its container, transient in time (like a gas).

A liquid experience for customers is similarly constantly flowing and flexing in its character – sometimes real, human, tactile – sometimes virtual, yet highly intelligent, and automated – and sometimes both.

“Liquidity” challenges CX designers, and their brand owners, to rethink every type of experience, how they can harness the best of all formats, to create more human and enjoyable, yet virtual and convenient, solutions.

The reality is that we are ultimately human, physical beings. And therefore this is where most holistic value can be created. Digital is the ultimate enabler. The creative challenge is to better embed digital power within essentially human experiences.

Imagine how a “liquified” approach to CX design could transform your brand, and consumer’s experience?

Examples of Liquid CX

IKEA Place … using AR to imagine new physical possibilities with a simple app.

Amazon Style … the new physical fashion stores are fully digital.

Alibaba New Retail … a new vision for stores online, and in the high street.

  • Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=336YkwayCD4

Nikeland on Roblox … go online to get a physical workout

  • Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1yX7awE5P0

Moleskine Smart Writing System … fusing digital and physical notebooks.

  • Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mEmh6APKjQ

ABBA Voyage … physical concert, dancing to the digital avatars.

Steve Aoki … creating art at the junction of physical and digital.

It’s not easy to understand corporate financials.

The traditional metrics tend to hide what is really going on – the different sources of revenue, particularly as brands diversify into many types of services to complement their products – and then how profits are actually derived, or not.

Here are some fabulous visually-engaging financial analysis by Bertrand Seguin, a 37 year old French investor, who spent 12 years at Japanese gaming company Bandai Namco explaining finance to his bosses. They utilise what is known as a Sankey diagram to illustrate revenue and cost flows in ways that spark interest and conversation.

In his newsletter, which you can sign up to, he goes further and interprets the latest financial reporting, forthcoming IPOs and much more, to help make sense of the underlying health of organisations.

Apple is a money machine, now more valuable, market cap $2.4 trillion, than the rest of the “FAANGs” (Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Netflix) together.

Microsoft‘s reinvention has been impressive in recent years, driven by the cloud. It’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard will continue the revolution.

Alphabet’s dominance of search advertising sustains its model, but needs to look beyond this to new business models as markets evolve.

Amazon generates huge revenues but little profits, but that is the sign of a relentless innovator, able to focus on the future.

Disney had a great pandemic, as its streaming services rapidly caught up with Netflix. It is no in the driving seat of convergent media again.

Shopify, Tobi Lutke’s digital retail business, has come a long way since his first snowboarding shop which was more focused on community than sales.

Meta is a business in a mess, having lost 60-70% of its value in the last 12 months, with rapid decline in Facebook activity and advertising, and  self-indulgent dreams of its founder.

Visa is the most valuable financial services company in the world, more valuable than any bank. Payment systems in general are driving the real innovation in finance.

These are just examples, from the most recent financial reports. Seguin continues to generate more, and also to add much deeper, interesting commentary in his regular reports. Here are a few more of his diagrams:

 



You’ll find much more similar analysis, and interpretation, on his website and in his newsletters.

Over the past one hundred years, the office has been integral to the development of modern society. It has shaped the architecture of our cities, the behaviour of our organisations, and the everyday movements of millions of people.

And then the global Covid-19 pandemic brought our attendance in the office to an abrupt halt and triggered a complete reevaluation of the purpose of the workplace. Is it the end of the office as we know it?

Many companies have only partially returned to their offices. Most are currently exploring hybrid-type models of 2-3 days a week together. Some, like Dropbox have defined themselves as virtual-first companies. Airbnb said you can work anywhere, for life.

Many offices have been scaled back. Some have reinvented themselves – gone are the hot desks and cubicles – instead it is a place designed for creativity and collaboration – meeting rooms, social spaces, creative studios.

In fact that’s the point. It’s not about where you work, its about why and how you work most effectively.

There is a more profound transformation than just home or work. It is about the role of organisations in society, the role of talent in organisations, how teams can be most effective, what attracts GenZ, and much more. Teal organisations emerge, Netflix pride themselves on a no-rules culture, Haufne elect their leaders annually, DBS calls itself a 26000 person start-up.

Here are some of the best sources to explore on future of working:

In the midst of all this, what is the future of the office?

Jeremy Myerson and Philip Ross are founders of Unwork, a consulting firm specialising in office design, or more broadly, work design. They are also founders of the WorkTech Academy.

They’ve just published a new book, “Unworking“.

Here’s why. “Right in the middle of the biggest transformation of work and workplace for a generation, our new book seeks to provide an essential guide to the future by exploring 10 key forces at play.”

“We’ve put our heads together to create a panoramic view of the workplace and a manifesto for ‘Unworking’, – unlearning old habits and rituals established for an outdated office and crafting and creating new ones fit for an age of digital technology, design innovation, and diverse workforces.

We explore how the working patterns and established principles of the office over the past 100 years are now being disrupted by new ideas. Our book aims to bring these new concepts and ways of thinking to life.”

The book will make you think back to the offices in episodes of Mad Men through to the hybrid revolution that is currently underway, with conversations on important topics such as the four-day week, remote work and diversity and inclusion.

How can your office help create a happier workforce? How could your workplace contribute to your team’s wellbeing?

By examining 10 forces of change that all business leaders should understand, Ross and Myerson encourage us to reflect on and rid ourselves of defunct habits and rituals established by an outdated office.

The result leaves you free to create new blueprints for an age of digital technology, design innovation and diverse workforces.

 

What can we learn from today’s most inspiring business leaders?

In bring together the best ideas, insights and innovative approaches to business,  I wanted to explore the world’s most inspiring as well as innovative business leaders … leaders who really are changing their worlds, right now.

They are transformers, stepping up to imagine new futures, taking their organisations to new places,  in pursuit of a better future.

Of course, there is a diverse range of business leaders to learn from – some good, others less so. My personal favourites include Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, Piyush Gupta at DBS, and Zhang Ruimin from Haier.

Some leaders are great in some ways, but not so good otherwise. We’re inspired by the incredible ambition, and unstoppable determination of Elon Musk, yet I’m not sure I admire how he behaves or treats others.

Some people are just truly amazing people. Tan Le, for example, the Vietnamese boat refugee who became a world leading neuroscientist, or Warren Buffett, still dreaming and investing for the future, now in his nineties.

Entrepreneurs have fabulous stories, like Sebastian Thrun who went from GoogleX to Udacity to Kitty Hawk, or Tobi Lütke transforming the world’s retailers. As do corporate leaders like Bernard Arnault and Mary Barra.

The new DNA of leadership

Having spent many hours with leaders, one to one, and with their teams – teaching, coaching and advising them on strategies and change – and explored the many leadership theories, and insights from today’s most inspiring leaders – it became clear that there are some common attributes.

These attributes form a pyramid, somewhat analogous to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. At the foundation are the essentials required to operate, and deliver performance. Above these are the attributes required for progress, to make sense of change, to find new growth, and drive innovation.

At the top are the attributes required of leaders who want to transform their organisations, guided by purpose beyond profit, to create a better business, and a better world.

The key question for any leader should be “what kind of future do you want to create, shape and lead?” Leaders need the courage to step up, to envision and implement this future.

For that reason, I’ve brought together 25 of the best video stories of leaders. What can you learn from each of them?

50 Inspiring Leaders … video stories

Anne Wojcicki, 23andMe co-founder & CEO …  Wojcicki started out on Wall Street, and read an analyst report that said the future of healthcare is data. She flew to Stanford, and set up 23andMe, the DNA diagnostic business. Listen to he talk on the benefits of DNA testing, and the future of medicine. Recently she went public, partnered with drugs companies to make personalised medicines, and launched a telehealth DTC business.

Bernard Arnault, LVMH chairman and CEO … Arnault is the world’s richest man and the mastermind behind the world’s biggest luxury group, LVMH. But even he had his doubters early on. He built a huge portfolio of luxury brands, which work separately but with collective benefits. One significant area of group collaboration has been in embracing digital platforms, and entering Asian markets, where young people are now the core audience.

Shou Chew, TikTok CEO  … the Singapore entrepreneur started out at Goldman Sachs where he led investment in Alibaba, Xiaomi, and then Bytedance. He joined Xiaomi in 2015 as CFO, and then Bytedance as CFO 6 years later. Three months after joining the Chinese AI business, he became CEO of their TikTok business.

Here, in a TED interview, he describes how the video app works – from what distinguishes its algorithm and drives virality to the challenges of content moderation and digital addiction. TikTok, beyond all its controversies, is today a cultural phenomenon, seeking  – he says – “to inspire creativity and bring joy” by providing users with “a window to discover, a canvas to create, and bridges for people to connect.”

Jane Fraser, CEO of Citi … Fraser recently stepped up to CEO of the banking group, and became the first woman to lead one of Wall Street’s top banks, saying that leaders need “curiosity, creativity and courage”. She started out in the UK, and was not afraid to take a career break. She has worked across the world, and brings a very different perspective to the top of one of America’s leading banks.

Patrick Brown, CEO of Impossible Foods … Brown, the Stanford professor was heading towards a quiet retirement, but then stepped away from academia to start a business with a passion to eliminate animals from human food. The early years were spent on R&D seeking to create the perfect alternative to a meat-based burger. The problem was consumers loved not just the taste, but also the smell, juice and sizzle. He found his solution in heme, extracted from clover roots, which simulated the effect of blood. He has since scaled the business, starting in upmarket restaurants, then moving to fast food, then to supermarkets, then globally, in particular to Asia.

Tan Le, founder of Emotiv …  Le was a boat refugee from Vietnam, who found herself stranded with her mother in the South China Sea. Rescued by a British oil tanker, she arrived in Australia determined to make the most of every opportunity. She learnt English, worked hard, qualified as a lawyer, but was then attracted by neuroscience, Her company Emotiv is merging the human brain with technology and blurring the line between science fiction and reality. But before changing other people’s lives, she had to change her own.

Satya Nadella, Microsoft CEO … in 2014, he stepped up to take the fading tech giant to a new place, embracing AI and cloud as engines of transformation, and turning Microsoft from a $300 million into a $2 trillion business. In particular he gave the organisation purpose and mindset – famously, a growth mindset, a concept developed by Carol Dweck and saying “I want to build an organisation of learn it alls, not know it alls”. Much else has changed in Microsoft, as he opened it up, with new collaborations and ventures in every market.

Jessica Tan, co-CEO of Ping An … Ping An is one of the world’s largest insurance companies, based inn Schenzen. Tan, with a background in consulting, joined the executive team to look at new ways to grow the business, in particular into new markets. She recognised the huge opportunity for finding a low-cost, accessible healthcare model in China and beyond. Building an ecosystem of partners – doctors, pharmacies, clinics, technologies and data experts, she has created Good Doctor, the world’s largest online healthcare platform.

Hamdi Ulukaya, CEO of Chobani … Ulukaya is the Anatolian shepherd who grew up as a nomad in north eastern Turkey, went to USA, and created the world’s leading brand of Greek yogurt, Chobani. He calls himself the anti-CEO, recently won the Global Citizen of the Year award, and wants to give all his money away to charities fighting poverty and homelessness.

Sebastian Thrun, Udacity founder and CEO of Kitty Hawk …  Thrun spent his early years in academia and then at Alphabet, one of the founders of the Moonshot Factory, now known as the X Company. Described as this tech wizard he left to reinvent the way in which the world learns, with nano-degree digital eduction business Udacity. He is now seeking to launch the flying car market with Kitty Hawk.

Emily Weiss, Glossier founder and CEO … Having started out as a Vogue journalist, she found success in her blog which engaged thousands of women in talking more deeply about their love of beauty products, which they liked best and how they used them. This spurred her to create a business built on a community of passionate consumers, essentially a community-based or C2C brand. With Glossier her mission to reinvent the beauty industry. She talks about the importance of brand authenticity and her company’s emphasis on deep online engagement with its consumers.

Neil Blumenthal and David Gilboa, co-founders Warby Parker … the four founders were students at Wharton business school. Fed up with the high cost of prescription glasses, they decided to do something about it.

Zhang Ruimin, Haier CEO …  he recently stepped down after 30 years leading Haier, now the world’s largest home appliances company, talking about his innovative and entrepreneurial business model, Rendanheyi. In 2019 I interviewed Zhang Ruimin for my book Business Recoded. As a fellow physicist, he talked about quantum mechanics. Applied to organisation culture, innovation and progress. And much more. Here he talks about rendanheyi, how to create a living organisation.

Uğur Şahin and Özlem Türeci, cofounders of BioNTech … the immunologists (and married couple) share how their decades of mRNA research powered the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine – and what this could mean for the future of vaccines and more. As the Covid-19 pandemic struck, they rapidly pivoted a decade of research into new vaccines for cancer, into a way in which mRNA could address the pandemic virus. They gathered an ecosystem of experts and partners around their Mainz base, and in 6 months were able to develop a Covid vaccine. Compare that to the more usual 10 years or more.

Marcos Galperin, CEO and co-founder of Mercado Libre … the Buenos Aires-based online marketplace has become the most valuable company in Latin America. It operates in 18 countries, although Brazil alone accounts for 65% of its revenue, growing to 96% when including Argentina and Mexico. Galperin shares his expertise. lessons learned, and best practices within the e-commerce industry in Latin America.

Hooi Ling Tan, Grab co-founder … discusses growing the ride-hailing platform that became a “super-app” in Southeast Asia and how digitizing the region’s economy has helped empower both drivers and customers.

Read more about Hooi Ling Tan and Grab

Jacek Olczak, CEO of Philip Morris International … driven by a vision to make the world smoke-free, to “kill the Marlboro Man by 2025”, and in shifting from its old business, to drive new growth and value creation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUbUuv7urlw

Mary Barra, CEO of General Motors … She challenged the traditional culture of GM in dramatic style, rejecting complacency and embracing new tech, on a mission to reinvent her industry. In this video she discusses how her company will transition to an all-electric light-duty fleet by 2035. But how do you let go of the old business, when it accounts for nearly 100% of your profits?

Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder … talks about the early days of creating Amazon, after leaving his Wall Street banking job to create “the world’s largest online bookstore”, what he’s learned since then, and his rocket company, Blue Origin.

Tobias Lütke, founder and CEO of Shopify … giving every small shop the power to compete online in a global marketplace, how technology is transforming business and markets, and how he sees the future of retail.

Henrik Andersen, CEO of Vestas … the world leader in wind power, the world’s most sustainable company in 2022, what is the future of energy and what is the green transformation the biggest change in society since the industrial revolution.

  • More about Vestas, the world’s most sustainable company

Bob Iger, former chairman and CEO of The Walt Disney Company … from his early days as a weatherman, he transformed the company into one of the largest media conglomerates in the world. Then he retired in 2021. However at the end of 2022, Disney was struggling and the new CEO was fired. Disney’s board felt that Iger was the best person to sort out the business, and so he is back as CEO again.

Jensen Huang, Nvidia founder and CEO … AI is transforming our world. The software that enables computers to do things that once required human perception and judgment depends largely on hardware made possible by Jensen Huang. He cofounded Nvidia in 1993, building more powerful computer chips for video games. Here he talks about the next advances in computing, the future of AI, and the “omniverse” which is Nvidia’s metaverse.

Indra Nooyi, former CEO of Pepsico … a champion of long-term thinking and a “performance with purpose” strategy for growth, and helping more women succeed in the workplace.

Eric Yuan, Founder and CEO, Zoom … Yuan founded Zoom in 2011 to “deliver happiness” and bring people together in a frictionless video environment. He led Zoom to one of the highest-performing tech IPOs of 2019. Time magazine named him 2020 Businessperson of Year. He was also named Comparably’s Best CEO for Diversity in 2021.

Tim Cook, CEO of Apple … is joined by Jony Ive, former Apple Chief Design Officer and LoveFrom co-founder, and Laurene Powell Jobs, wife of Steve Jobs, and founder of the Emerson Collective.

David Vélez, founder and CEO of Nubank … discuss why he is passionate about social impact, his drive to continuously be challenged, and how he reinvented the wheel of the banking system. “Why would you wait decades to solve issues if you can now?” he says.

Ben Francis, founder and CEO of Gymshark … talks about how he started athleisure brand  as a teenager and how he has scaled it to be one of the UK’s most valuable privately held companies.

Olivier Bernhard, founder of On … On is a Swiss running shoe company created by Bernhard, a six-time Ironman champion and former professional triathlete. In just 11 years, the upstart company went from zero to a valuation over $7 billion. This is the story about how a two time world champion and his friends landed Roger Federer to help create one of the fastest growing shoe companies in the world.

Toni Petersson, CEO of Oatly … talks about the company’s strategy to transform the non-dairy sector, the forces behind a growth in plant-based diets, and why sustainability is core to the company’s mission. Petersson bizarrely sang in the brand’s Super Bowl ad, a tune he wrote himself accompanied by his keyboard in a wide-open field of oats.  Yet, the lyrics, which included, “it’s like milk, but made for humans,” and “wow, no cow,” were surprisingly catchy.

Brynn Putnam, founder of Mirror … she quit a career in ballet and invested her $15000 savings in her start-up idea, then secured $3 million in venture capital on the same day that she gave birth to her son, then in the summer of 2020, sold her business f or $500 million to Lululemon. All in two years.

Shou Chew, CEO of TikTok … How did TikTok become the app that every other company is chasing? Where will the social media company go next? From Singapore to Harvard Business School, Chew became an investment banker at Goldman Sachs in London before later becoming the CFO and President of International at Xiaomi Technology. He is now CEO of TikTok, and also CFO of parent company ByteDance .

Mike Cessario, founder and CEO of Liquid Death … He spent years figuring out how to make water cool. Now his brand is valued at $700 million. After attending the 2009 Warped Tour, Cessario realized bottled water lacked irreverent marketing like that of energy drinks. With about $1,500, he created a commercial before he had an actual can of water. It went viral and investors saw the potential. Liquid Death has raised $195 million and is on track to reach $130 million in sales by the end of 2022.

José Neves, Founder and CEO, Farfetch … the Portuguese billionaire is founder of Farfetch, a global luxury fashion online platform, founded in 2007, that sells products from over 700 boutiques and brands from around the world. In September 2018, the company went public.  In October 2021, Farfetch launched its in-house fashion brand, There Was One.

Jon Moeller, CEO of Procter & Gamble … He joined the consumer goods business in 1988, became CFO in 2009, and then CEO in 2021. Here he discusses company innovation, their drive toward sustainability, and his experience navigating supply chain disruptions.

Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO of SpaceX … She talks about balancing ambitious goals, putting people on Mars in a decade, leading collaboratively, and why she likes making decisions with data. … “Aim high. We have always achieved what we wanted to, never in the the timeline. We fail on timeline, but that feels like the right fail to make as oppose to not achieving what you are trying to achieve technically.”

Teiichi Goto, CEO of Fujifilm … When the camera film was fundamentally disrupted by the smartphone, Kodak lost its way and headed to oblivion. Fufilifm meanwhile started innovating, initially into medical imagining, and then into beauty products (skincare is equally a film, but applied to the skin) with Amore Pacific, and then into other forms of healthcare. It’s innovation process has the slogan, Never Stop.

Brian Chesky, co-founder and CEO of Airbnb … here he talks about the founding story of Airbnb, how to acquire customer loyalty, lessons in crisis management and more.

Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet, and its subsidiary Google … Under his leadership, Google has been focused on developing products and services, powered by the latest advances in AI, that offer help in moments big and small.

Tristan Walker, CEO of Walker & Company … In 2018, he sold his brand toProcter & Gamble, becoming the first black CEO under the P&G umbrella. He is founder of CODE2040, a program that matches high performing black and latino undergraduate and graduate coders and software engineering students with Silicon Valley start-ups for summer internships.

Astro Teller, Captain of X, Leader of Google’s Moonshot Factory … discusses the mission of X, what it means to be a cultural entrepreneur and how innovation can drive business.

Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway … the legendary investor shares two stories about women who started from nothing and sold their businesses to him.

Have the courage to lead the future

The implications for business are broad and significant: a better approach to people and the jobs they do, organisation structures and how people work, a different approach to strategic development and innovation, how brands develop and engage customers, and a more enlightened approach to how businesses grow to create and share value.

The new codes of business challenge our deeply engrained assumptions and practices, some extending and strengthening what we already do, others replacing the old ways.

There is no magic formula for business success, although plenty of concepts and models, frameworks and tools which can help. Developing leaders in today’s world is much more of a mindset, a way of thinking, opening your mind to a new world of possibilities, and the many ways to succeed in it.

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“Harvard Business Review” has become the bible of smart management thinking.

Now, in its 100th year, some of the most influential contributors and topics have included:

  • Michael Porter on competitive strategy
  • Clay Christensen on disruptive innovation
  • Tim Brown on design thinking
  • Linda Hill on being a first-time manager
  • Daniel Goleman on emotional intelligence
  • Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee on artificial intelligence
  • Robert Livingston on racial equity at work
  • Amy Edmondson and Mark Mortensen on psychological safety
  • Robert Cialdini on the science of persuasion
  • Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne on blue ocean strategy
  • Gary Hamel and CK Prahalad on strategic intent
  • Peter Drucker on managing yourself.

For the last 30 years I’ve looked forwards to each edition landing on my doormat, and being able to browse the archives online.

Sometimes it’s a lot to take in, and I make do with the excellent summaries. I also take comfort from the stored knowledge on my bookshelf, or online, available on tap.

But what’s best is when you sit down and immerse yourself in a great article.

I remember in my early days of business I did this. After just a few articles, on customer-centricity as I remember, I started to develop a richer perspective, confidence and capability to debate challenges, and implement solutions.

I was soon approaching work with a much richer global perspective. dropping anecdotes about companies, academic models, and latest ideas. It also helped me to see a bigger picture, alternative views, and new opportunities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pokle4K-kS8&t=3s

If I was to pick 5 articles for a quick re-immersion today, I’d probably go for these below, which I’ve interspersed with a few of HBR’s great catalytic videos just as examples:

The Authenticity Paradox

Herminia Ibarra (2015)

Authenticity has become the gold standard for leadership. But as INSEAD’s Herminia Ibarra argues, a simplistic understanding of what authenticity means can limit leaders’ growth and impact. All too often, we tend to latch on to authenticity as an excuse for sticking with what’s comfortable. But few jobs allow us to do that for long. In this article, Ibarra explains how leaders can develop an “adaptively authentic” style by experimenting with many different leadership approaches. It’s OK to change tactics from one day to the next, she says. That’s not being fake, it’s how we figure out what’s right for the challenges and circumstances we face. Three strategies can help you break free from a self-concept that’s too rigid: (1) Learn from diverse role models. Growth necessarily involves some form of imitation, but don’t copy just one person’s leadership style. Borrow selectively from various people to create your own collage. (2) Work on getting better. Set learning goals–not just performance targets–to focus on the value of experimentation. Stretch the limits of who you are by doing new things that make you uncomfortable but help you discover by direct experience who you want to become. (3) Don’t stick to “your story.” Jettison outdated self-concepts and draw on personal narratives that fit your circumstances as you’re taking on new challenges.

Blue Ocean Strategy

Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne (2004)

Despite a long-term decline in the circus industry, Cirque du Soleil profitably increased revenue twenty-two-fold over the last 10 years by reinventing the circus. Rather than competing within the confines of the existing industry or trying to steal customers from rivals, Cirque developed uncontested market space that made the competition irrelevant. Cirque created what the authors call a blue ocean–a previously unknown market space. In blue oceans, demand is created rather than fought over. There is ample opportunity for growth that is both profitable and rapid. In red oceans–that is, in all the industries already existing–companies compete by grabbing for a greater share of limited demand. As the market space gets more crowded, prospects for profits and growth decline. Products turn into commodities, and increasing competition turns the water bloody. There are two ways to create blue oceans. One is to launch completely new industries, as eBay did with online auctions. But it’s much more common for a blue ocean to be created from within a red ocean when a company expands the boundaries of an existing industry. In studying more than 150 blue ocean creations in over 30 industries, the authors observed that the traditional units of strategic analysis–company and industry–are of limited use in explaining how and why blue oceans are created. The most appropriate unit of analysis is the strategic move, the set of managerial actions and decisions involved in making a major market-creating business offering. Creating blue oceans builds brands. So powerful is blue ocean strategy, in fact, that a blue ocean strategic move can create brand equity that lasts for decades.

Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave

Joseph Bower and Clayton Christensen (1995)

One of the most consistent patterns in business is the failure of leading companies to stay at the top of their industries when technologies or markets change. Why is it that established companies invest aggressively – and successfully – in the technologies necessary to retain their current customers but then fail to make the technological investments that customers of the future will demand? The fundamental reason is that leading companies succumb to one of the most popular, and valuable, management dogmas: they stay close to their customers. To remain at the top of their industries, managers must first be able to spot disruptive technologies. To pursue these technologies, managers must protect them from the processes and incentives that are geared to serving mainstream customers. And the only way to do that is to create organizations that are completely independent of the mainstream business.

Teamwork on the Fly

Amy Edmondson (2012)

In a fast-paced and ever-changing business environment, traditional teams aren’t always practical. Instead, companies increasingly employ teaming: gathering experts in temporary groups to solve problems they may be encountering for the first and only time. This flexible approach was essential to the completion of the Water Cube, the building that hosted swimming and diving events during the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, and to the 2010 rescue of 33 Chilean miners. More and more people in nearly every industry now work on teams that vary in duration and have constantly shifting membership. Teaming presents technical and interpersonal challenges: People must get up to speed quickly on new topics and learn to work with others from different functions, divisions, and cultures. Several project management principles–scoping out the challenge, structuring the boundaries, and sorting tasks for execution–help leaders facilitate effective teaming. Leaders can also foster cross-boundary collaboration by emphasizing purpose, building psychological safety, and embracing failure and conflict. Individuals who learn to team well acquire knowledge, skills, and networks. Organizations learn to solve complex, cross-disciplinary problems, build stronger and more unified cultures, deliver a wide variety of products and services, and anticipate and manage unexpected events. Teaming helps companies and individuals execute and learn at the same time.

What Makes a Leader?

Daniel Goleman (2004)

When asked to define the ideal leader, many would emphasize traits such as intelligence, toughness, determination, and vision–the qualities traditionally associated with leadership. Often left off the list are softer, more personal qualities–but they are also essential. Although a certain degree of analytical and technical skill is a minimum requirement for success, studies indicate that emotional intelligence may be the key attribute that distinguishes outstanding performers from those who are merely adequate. Psychologist and author Daniel Goleman first brought the term “emotional intelligence” to a wide audience with his 1995 book of the same name, and Goleman first applied the concept to business with this 1998 classic HBR article. In his research at nearly 200 large, global companies, Goleman found that truly effective leaders are distinguished by a high degree of emotional intelligence. Without it, a person can have first-class training, an incisive mind, and an endless supply of good ideas, but he or she still won’t be a great leader. The chief components of emotional intelligence–self-awareness, self-regulation, motivation, empathy, and social skill–can sound unbusinesslike, but Goleman, cochair of the Consortium for Research on Emotional Intelligence in Organizations, based at Rutgers University, found direct ties between emotional intelligence and measurable business results.

Happy 100 years, HBR!

Growth is shifting, innovation is relentless, disruption is accelerating, expectations are high, and social tensions are rising. Making sense, and making use, of these dramatic forces of change will help you to make better strategic choices, shape markets to your advantage, and create a brighter future.

The “megatrends” may not surprise you, the question is how will they influence your future – both as challenge, and opportunity – and how, within your strategies and innovations, will you embrace the most significant forces of change?

I spent some time comparing the many different approaches to tracking and articulating these patterns of change, to find out which trends are the most common, and the most significant.

Isn’t it obvious? Technology is shaping everything? Yes, but its the implications of that, which matter.

Trends guide your future choices. It’s the oldest adage in investing, and it applies to projecting future business performance too. McKinsey’s recent analysis shows that riding the right waves of change, created by industry and geographic trends, is the most important contributor to business results … a company benefiting from such tailwinds is 4-8 times more likely to rise to the top of future performers.

Sci-fi author William Gibson is often quoted saying “The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet”. That’s partly true. Add, the view of American computer scientist Alan Kay who says  “the best way to predict the future is to invent it”.

The real question therefore is how will you use megatrends to help understand the possibilities, and then how can you shape your future, in the way you’d like it to emerge?

So what is a “megatrend“? Trends are an emerging pattern of change likely to impact how we live and work. Megatrends are large, social, economic, political, environmental or technological change that are slow to form, but once in place can influence a wide range of activities, processes and perceptions, possibly for decades. They are the underlying forces that drive change in global markets, and our everyday lives.

There are many different sources of “megatrends” … here are just a few … but its how you interpret them, apply them to your current and future business strategies, and the posture you take in shaping them, that determines your impact:

Of course megatrends can sound like hype and hyperbole. Particularly when promoted by individual companies or consulting firms to promote their services. But megatrends are also valuable, insightful, critical signposts to the future.

Here are some of the most interesting recent reports, all exploring megatrends:

I developed a more detailed analysis of the 5 most significant megatrends shaping our world towards 2030. Since I started working on this in 2020, what has changed?

A pandemic has certainly shaken up our world. Healthcare and wellbeing came to the fore of consumer agendas. Add new conflicts, and their consequences economically, politically and logistically –  regionalisation or global fragmentation has become obvious, enhancing a trend towards nationalism – and then rising inflation, oil prices and stagnant growth have further challenged our norms.

Much of the 5 megatrends below, however, are still relevant, and perhaps accelerated by the most recent change:

Megatrend 1: Shifting economic power

Population growth is at the heart of the shift in economic power. The influence of emerging and developing economies will mean huge changes for business, society and the way we invest.

1. Emerging economies are now the growth markets

In less than a generation, developing economies have gone from being producers of goods for developed countries, to becoming an important destination for consumer goods and services in their own right. They now account for nearly 80 percent of global economic growth, and 85 percent of growth in global consumption – more than double their share in the 1990s.

2. China will be the new global superpower

Two centuries ago Napoléon Bonaparte said, “China is a sleeping giant… when she wakes, she will move the world.” How right he was. Only 15 years ago, China’s economy was one tenth the size of the US economy. If it continues to grow as predicted, it will be bigger than the US economy by the late 2020s.

As a result, China expects to have 200 cities with a population of over one million people by 2025. To tackle overcrowding in Beijing, China is building a new city – Xiongan New Area – from scratch 100km southwest of the capital. Initially it will be double the size of Manhattan and is expected to become twice the size of New York and Singapore.

3. Global demographics will change

In 2016, Asia’s population was estimated at 4.4 billion, having quadrupled in size during the 20th century. It is now forecast to grow to over 5 billion people by 2050. Asia benefits from a wealth of resources, and has an ecological variety which makes it well-placed to support this growth. As a result, we can expect to see further economic growth across this region.

Implications

1. Power shift from west to east

Despite some challenges for the Chinese economy driven by debt levels and property market valuations, the potential long term growth of the Chinese economy relative to the US and Europe looks likely. China is already on a path to replace the US as the world’s leading superpower. When it does, political agendas, global trade and the sphere of influence are likely to shift towards Beijing from Washington.

2. Chinese business growth is relentless

China now boasts at least 100 unicorns (private companies with a $1 billion valuation), and by the end of 2019 it is forecast to be the largest user of the international patent system. It currently lies in second behind the U.S. An impressive six million enterprises were registered in China last year, up from 2.5m in 2013. The fastest growing sectors included science and technology, entertainment, sport and finance, whilst the number of mining, electricity and gas companies showed a slight decline.

3. Time to learn from the east, again

The best ideas, the best partners, the best practices are increasingly from the east rather than the west. American institutions and corporate leadership is declining. Look at the number of Indian CEOs in Silicon Valley. The continuing liberalisation of the Chinese economy means the assumption that the world speaks English will likely become a thing of the past.

Megatrend 2: Resource scarcity

The impact of global warming is all around us. Rising temperatures could eventually have a significant impact on crop yields, causing food prices to surge, which in turn could impact poorer communities. At the same time, coastal areas will be increasingly susceptible to regular flooding as sea levels rise.

1. Increased strain on the planet’s resources

The global population is expanding rapidly and becoming increasingly prosperous. This is leading to significant demand for energy, water and food, which is putting a strain on the traditional, finite resources of the planet. According to The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global population will surpass 9.1 billion by 2050, at which point they predict the world’s agricultural systems will not be able to supply enough food for everyone. And the UN projects that the global demand for fresh water will exceed supply by 40% in 2030, with some cities, like Cape Town, already suffering from ‘water stress’.

2. Increasing carbon emissions drive global warming

The average surface temperature of the planet has been on an upward path since the late 19th century and this trend looks set to continue. The burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause of global warming. Carbon dioxide and other gases are released and trapped within the atmosphere, which in turn means heat can’t escape. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have rocketed since the time of the industrial revolution and show no sign of abating.

The graph shows CO2 levels during the last three glacial cycles:

Average temperatures are forecast to rise by more than two degrees before 2100, creating significant and irreversible damage and increasing strain on global resources. A study by Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC)  estimates that this two-degree threshold could be reached as early as 2036.

Implications

1. More produce, less inputs

In order to meet the increased food demands of the future, the agricultural industry will need to continue to innovate to become more productive with less resources and inputs. Technology is playing a key role via the rising adoption of precision agriculture. Precision variable rate technologies such as one that can detect weeds with sensors and spot sprays could slash herbicide usage by up to 95%. McKinsey says that with a 20-40% adoption rate for precision, agriculture yields could be boosted by 10-15% globally by 2025.

2. Shift from oil to clean energy

Sustainable energy sources are increasing in importance as the rhetoric condemning fossil fuels continues and changes in commodity consumption occur. But change is also about using energy more efficiently in everything we do.

3. Decline of carbon-based mobility

As tariffs are placed on internal combustion engine vehicles, experts predict that by 2040 we will all be driving electric vehicles.11 And while the idea of driverless cars still feels like science fiction, the UK Government has set a target of having the first autonomous cars on the road by 2021, with companies such as Daimler planning ‘full production of autonomous vehicles by the early 2020s’.

Megatrend 3: Technological breakthrough

“We’re in the midst of a fourth industrial revolution, which will become known as the digital revolution.” says Klaus Schwab. The rapid advancement of technology, especially that of artificial intelligence and machine learning, is arguably at the centre of all megatrends.

1. The pace of change is exponential, not linear

The extent and pace of technological change is likely to have wide-reaching implications across almost all industries. People may be replaced with machines, and machines, robotics and AI may learn faster than humans. Think about linear growth compared to exponential growth – its impact multiplies at every year.

2. Data is the new oil

Data is the key enabler of this fourth industrial revolution. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine how powerful it could become. Jack Ma, the founder and executive chairman of Alibaba, likens data to the discovery of electricity. He said, “The world is going to be data. I think this is just the beginning of the data period.” The total amount of global data is expected to increase tenfold by 2025, the majority of which will be created and managed by business.

3. Automation of humanity

60% of all occupations could see at least 30% of their component activities automated. Many repetitive jobs can already be done by a machine, but with the rise of Artificial Intelligence, human expertise can now be learned and mastered by a system. Yes, this means that certain jobs will be replaced by machines, but it also means that the potential for new and emerging industries and opportunities is greater than ever before.

Implications

1. IOT drives connected living

By the year 2020, our world will be even more connected to the internet. Our cars, coffee machines, fridges and central heating will all be controlled from our tablets and smartphones. To put this into context, Gartner estimates that in 2014 there were 7 billion ‘things’ connected by the internet. By 2020, that will rise to 26 billion.

2. Improved standards of living through robotics and AI

As robots and artificial intelligence take on more jobs, costs should decrease, and more people will be able to afford better products. At the same time, dramatic improvements could be made to infrastructure, and transport costs might plummet.

3. Healthcare improvements

People will live longer and better lives, as healthcare technology improves patient outcomes and eradicates certain diseases. This will mitigate some of the issues of long-term care we discussed in the previous chapter.

Megatrend 4: Social change

There are already more over-65s in Asia than there are people in USA. By 2042 there will be more over-65s in Asia than the populations of the Eurozone and North America combined. Changes in global demographics (world population, density, ethnicity, education level and other aspects of the human population) will bring about significant social change, and therefore challenges and opportunities, for both government and business.

This megatrend underpins other structural shifts, such as technological development and shifting economic power. While the changes will vary by region, they will have a profound effect on local and global markets and societies.
1. Population continues to grow

According to the UN, the global population is forecast to increase by over 1 billion by 2030, with most of this growth coming from the emerging markets. By 2050, the UN estimates that 80% of the global population over the age of 60 will be in countries that are currently deemed to be ‘less developed’.

2. More old people across the world

In Japan 30% of the population is over the age of 60. Today in China, 29 million over 80 years old; by 2050, there will be 120 million. The UN’s latest demographics report forecasts that, by 2050, this will be the case in 55 countries. People will be living longer in retirement, which will result in the need for large-scale changes in government policy. This will also create a strain on healthcare services and providers, with many nations enforcing laws to ensure the elderly are properly cared for.

4. Fewer children

We’re having fewer children – particularly in wealthier and educated sections of society. This potentially has far-reaching consequences for business, including lower productivity, less labour-force participation, and less investment growth. Younger generations will be increasingly burdened with the expectation of looking after the elderly, which in turn could further reduce productivity.

Implications

1. Healthcare spending

In the US alone, healthcare spending is set to rise by 8% of GDP each year between now and 2040. That’s around $3,400 billion every year. According to analysis by the World Economic Forum, the retirement savings gap across eight major economies is growing by $28 billion every 24 hours and could reach $400 trillion by 2050 – around five times the size of the global economy today. There will be a renewed focus on saving for retirement and finding effective ways of drawing an income when people retire. As a result, there could be a greater need for financial help, and the rise of robo-advice solutions.

2. Robots will become our best friends

As populations age, it becomes increasingly likely that businesses will use technology to plug the shortfall in labour supply. Robots are more productive (they don’t sleep, get sick or need performance reviews, although they may have technical problems). As a result, there will be a greater need for skilled jobs such as data scientists.

3. Consumer preferences are changing the food industry

Consumers are increasingly focussed on what they eat, how they are eating it and how it is produced; creating significant changes in the food supply chain. For instance, organic foods sales in the US has risen 224% from 2005 to 2016. Fresh food is being preferred over processed foods and products with specific health related benefits, such as avocadoes and berries, have seen outsized growth. Consumers want their food to be more convenient, resulting in more online delivery, meal-kit solutions and convenient snacking options at supermarkets.

Megatrend 5: Rapid Urbanisation

More than half of the world’s population now lives in towns and cities, and by 2030 this number will swell to about 5 billion. Much of this urbanization will unfold in Africa and Asia, bringing huge social, economic and environmental transformations.

In 1990 there were only 10 cities in the world with a  population exceeding 10 million – the so-called ‘megacities’.  Today the number of worldwide megacities has nearly tripled to 28. Populations are increasingly concentrating themselves in cities and large urban areas. This will further drive technological advancement and impact climate change, having its own influence on other megatrends.

These large-scale shifts in population lead to both opportunities and challenges for society. The requirements of future urban populations will be remarkably different to the cities of today, with citizens demanding connectivity to everything – every device, every entity and every object. Wireless connectivity will be paramount to improving quality of life in cities.

1. Migration to the cities

Globally, more people live in urban than rural areas, and as the graph below shows, that trend looks set to continue. In 1950, 30% of the world’s population lived in urban areas, and that’s forecast to increase to 66% by 2050.2

Urban and rural population of the world, 1950-2050
2. Life is better in the cities

In the US, the patient-to-primary care physician ratio in rural areas is 39.8 physicians per 100,000 people, compared with 53.3 physicians per 100,000 in urban areas. This uneven distribution of physicians has proven to have an impact on the health of the population. With better healthcare outcomes likely, urban populations consequently grow faster than rural populations organically (without migration) as people are motivated to migrate towards them.

At the same time, urban areas tend to have better employment opportunities, better education and better access to social and cultural activities. This makes them more attractive places to live and makes it easier for businesses to flourish. In China, for example, the urban per capita income is more than double the rural figure.

Implications

1. Smart cities, new infrastructure

Cities will emerge, driven by modern urban populations that embrace technology to improve the efficiency of infrastructure and services. Mass migration will mean the need for new infrastructure and services. Transport infrastructure and networks will require upgrades due to the dominance of autonomous vehicles and the greater concentration of people.

2. Healthcare and security

As population density grows to unprecedented levels, existing healthcare systems will need to be radically overhauled to deal with this influx. Traditional hospitals will come under significant strain if they do not utilise new technologies available to them. With higher crime rates in cities than rural areas, governments will employ elevated levels of surveillance on citizens in cities, increasing connectivity means that every activity is logged and monitored.

3. Consumer behaviours change

In concentrated urban environments, the traditional symbols of progress will change – a car, a garage, a bigger house. Instead different priorities will emerge as we live in apartments. Products will need to be smaller, requiring less space or storage. Food deliveries and food replenishment will be fast. Traditional communities will not emerge like in villages, and so social lives will be less related to location and neighbours. Resources will be shared, from energy suppliers to mobility solutions. Group behaviour will dominate in new ways.

Sources: With thanks to Accenture, Blackrock, Deloitte, IFTF, PwC, WEF and World Bank for data in support of this report. 

Contact: peterfisk@peterfisk.com for more information on the Megatrends 2030 Workshops and Blueprint Programs.

Download: a summary of the keynote and workshop Megatrends 2020-2030 by Peter Fisk

We’re living through a time of anxiety and awe … economic uncertainty, relentless volatility, climate crisis, regional conflicts, social inequality, resource scarcity, rampant inflation, consumer distrust, lingering pandemic, new generations, B Corporations, digital centricity, virtual worlds … Yes, it’s a crazy time, but also a time for new thinking.

One certainty, is that those who sit around waiting for a return to how things used to be are deluded. The world has moved on for consumers, leaders, investors, everyone: new agendas, new practices, new expectations, new talent, and new priorities.

Now is the time to unlearn and relearn, to open minds and take new perspectives, to explore the opportunities presented by the biggest disruption of our business lives.

What are the world’s best companies doing now? In fact, who are they? How are their leaders adapting and innovating? What are the new strategies and techniques for success? Forget the old models that made GE or P&G great in the past, think instead about how Epic or Gymshark, Nio or Shein are thriving in fast, connected markets.

Of course, we shouldn’t throw out everything – there are many sound, enduring principles to build on. But it’s certainly a new environment, requiring new ideas and new ways to win.

Now is the time for business to step up. To see the opportunities of change, to provide a beacon of hope in a turbulent world – and to bring fresh, topical, practical insights and mindsets, tools and techniques, that will thrive in tomorrow’s world.

Below are a series of agendas, challenges and opportunities for business, and a range of new approaches which I have been developing with colleagues in order to respond:

Agenda 1: Developing “Performer-Transformer” Leaders

Leading through uncertainty requires adaptability, collaboration and resilience to keep the organisation focused and moving forwards; but it also requires courage to seize the opportunities of change, to disrupt markets and your own business, and to accelerate transformation. Leaders take comfort from short-term priorities, practical action. The best leaders do more, they “explore and exploit”, they are transformers as well as performers.

Agenda 2: Designing “Future Fit” Strategies

The best organisations dispense with evolution, with gradual improvements. Look at the auto industry: Volkswagen recently said it had lost 10 years of progress while trying to hang on to the old models and debate the new. Asian companies are particularly good at leap-frogging to the future. We need to connect purpose with foresight, new capability and new aspiration. And a new approach to strategies and plans, future proofed but also agile.

Agenda 3: Driving “Net Positive” Innovation

Sustainability is your best source of competitive advantage. It’s also the way to build trust in your brand, engagement with consumers, and find support in governments and society. But it’s much more than CSR, ESG and SDGs. Compliance is a start, but innovation delivers real impact. Innovating every aspect of business, from products and services, to processes and ecosystems. How can your business be a platform for good?

Agenda 4: Delivering “Human-Tech” Experiences

Digital technologies, from big data and AI, through to blockchain and robotics, continue to fascinate. As do new business models, built around consumers and platforms, new revenue streams and new partners. But the real potential comes from unlocking humanity and technology, enabling each other to be better. “Digital” is just one part of the best business transformations. But it is the new sauce that enables new possibilities.

You’ve probably recognised that each of these agendas are based on an apparent paradox. Like so many emerging trends, they challenge the existing polarities of thinking, and explore better ways of achieving success, connecting previously unconnected or often opposing concepts. As AG Lafley said, paradox is often the best source of innovation. 

Developing “Performer-Transformer” Leaders

Jim Hagemann Snabe, chairman of Siemens, vice chair of WEF, and one of our faculty, says “the best leaders should spend at least 40% of their time thinking about the future – thinking about what will happen next, or even after what happens next”. Too many leaders like to get into the fire-fighting, rather than empowering their capable people. Too many leaders wait for the future to happen rather than shaping it to their advantage.

Why? We bring together new ideas and insights to understand what it takes for leaders to create the future, and deliver today, at the same time. Topics include:

  • Think Again …  creates a framework for open-mindedness, to challenge assumptions and biases, and develop your critical skill of rethinking. We connect this to other concepts like behavioural economics and atomic habits.
  • Transformer 20 … Innosight’s global analysis of the world’s best transformational companies explores what they do. Adobe, Netflix, Microsoft, and many more. Scott Anthony and his team’s insights and toolkits are crucial for every leader.
  • The Upside of Uncertainty … Nathan Furr proposes a model for transforming uncertainty into a force for good. This starts with the psychology of reframing and priming. Time to rethink VUCA with a positive mindset.

What? We learn from some of the world’s most transformational companies, how they combine customers and technologies, teams and systems, to create better futures:

  • DBS … When CEO Piyush Gupta set about transforming the Asian bank, he created a blueprint for “the invisible bank” where people “bank less, live more”. From hackathons to an ecosystem of delivery partners, it’s now the world’s best bank.
  • Orsted … Over 10 years, the Danish wind energy business has transformed itself from “black to green”, public to private, a national laggard to a global leader. And it’s not stopping there, now developing energy islands to go further.
  • Ping An … The world’s second largest insurer sees growth beyond its core. Jessica Tan became Co-CEO tasked with building future businesses, now including Good Doctor, the world’s largest healthcare platform.

How?  New programs to inspire and enable you, building on these new insights, where I bring together global experts include:

  • Global Business Leadership … A flagship program to engage current and future leaders – “transform your business, transform yourself”. Faculty like Strategyzer’s Tendayi Viki from Zimbabwe, and 3D Leader Terence Mauri are key contributors.
  • Transform! … We think it’s the world’s best business simulation (see below), engaging participants to compete as exec teams. First to $60 billion market cap wins! Norway’s Christian Rangen, part of our team, ensures that it’s a lot of fun too.
  • Vision to Vitality … Leading in a world of relentless change is not easy. It demands personal vision, courage, fitness, and resilience. We bring together sports coach Mikael Trolle, chief wellbeing officer Steven Macgregor, and many others.

Designing “Future Fit” Strategies 

Zhang Ruimin, outgoing chairman of Haier, the Chinese world leader in home appliances, said to me recently “Within 5 years, all of our products will be free”. Imagine if every refrigerator was free. How will they make money? Services is the obvious answer, using IOT and digital platforms to replenish your home, help you cook better, improve your health. How much do you spend on a fridge? $400 every 10 years. On food? $150 every week.

Why? A “future mindset” is about building confidence and courage to go further, and then working backwards with agility to make it happen:

  • Terra Incognita … Inspired by futurists like Richard Watson (see his fascinating new map), we explore how the future will emerge, the critical uncertainties and trend intersections, from future mapping to scenario planning.
  • The Invincible Company … Alex Osterwalder’s articulation of an organisation that never stops innovating, is built on the dual portfolio of “Explore and Exploit”, to create a pipeline of business for a future-proofed business.
  • Design Futures … “Design thinking” has become incredibly popular, innovation built around deep human insight, but now it’s enhanced to explore the best future possibilities. We work with IFTF to deploy this powerful approach.

What?  We learn from companies around the world with the most stretching visions, disrupting before they’re disrupted, and the courage to shape markets to their advantage:

  • Epic Games … Web 3 is rapidly evolving in the world of online games, Fortnite has become the world’s top music venue. It’s already more popular then real world for most GenZ. This is the real metaverse, but with a little less hype than Zuckerberg.
  • Revolut … Neo-banks are everywhere, but how are they more than just automated versions of old banks? We explore Nubank to N26, and many more, to understand how banking will evolve, and also link with superapp models like Jio and Rappi.
  • Nio … the Chinese lifestyle brand is often called the Tesla of China, but beyond its supercar EVs is a strategy to reinvent lifestyle brands. This is also a story of courageous leadership, intelligent technologies, and ecosystem platforms.

How?  Examples of new  program content which we can design and deliver as part of your own business events or development programs include:

  • Gamechanger Strategies … How to reinvent not just products, or businesses, but your entire market, to your advantage. Inspired by Oishii strawberries and Rapha cyclewear, we explore what it takes to dIsrupt and reimagine an industry.
  • Exponential Technologies … What’s the real potential of AI in your business? How could you move to a platform business model? Terence Tse is an AI wizard who can help, as is Ricardo Perez who specialises in platform futures.
  • TikTok Business Models … Social shopping, live streaming, is all the buzz. Shein is now a $100 billion business, retail built on “the haul”. Sharon Gai, former Alibaba digital leader is part of our team, helping us to make sense of digital opportunities.

Driving “Net Positive” Innovation

“One of the great misunderstandings of our time, is that companies can either be good for the world, or good for shareholders” said Marc Benioff of Salesforce in Davos. “The reality is that doing good is the best way to drive growth, to reduce risks, and create economic value”. He talked about businesses as platforms for change, platforms for good, and in particular how they have the power through customers to amplify impact many times over.

Why? Sustainability used to be about reducing impact, and particularly in reducing global warming. Now it’s about more, the ability to make a positive difference to the world:

  • Net Positive … Paul Polman has built on his transformation of Unilever, to create a new framework for business and its role in society, asking “Is the world better because your business is in it?”
  • Corporate Knights … Vestas tops the 2022 Global 100 ranking of the world’s most sustainable businesses, followed by Chr Hansen and Autodesk, with a deep analysis of what it does to do better.
  • Doughnut Economics … Amsterdam, Berlin, Copenhagen – three cities who have recently adopted Kate Raworth’s model (see below) for economic development within the doughnut, doing less bad for the environment, and more good for society.

What?  We learn from some of the world’s top sustainable innovators, typically embracing new technology to address our huge challenges, social and environmental:

  • NotCo … In Chile, Matias Muchnick is using AI to reinvent food – for example, by combining pineapple and cabbage he was able to create an alternative form of milk, NotMilk. With Jeff Bezos’ backing, he’s now created many more healthy NotFoods.
  • Carbon … 3D Printing is set to revolutionise production, supply chains, and ultimately our whole relationship with products. Imagine subscribing to Prada, flicking through their IP catalogue, pressing print every time you want a new dress?
  • Schneider Electric … Last year’s world’s most sustainable business, Schneider is particularly focused on the battery technology to store and distribute clean energy. It’s also actively developing local micro-production with networks of “prosumers.”

How?  New programs and content that are all about innovation driven by harnessing the challenges of sustainability include:

  • Sustainable Advantage … How to reframe sustainability in your business to engage consumers and outperform competitors, drive profitable growth, and make a positive impact on the world. Mark Esposito works with me on this.
  • SDG-Driven Strategies …. The UN’s 17 SDGs provides a useful framework to explore how your business can do better, with practical tools and metrics. UN’s Jessica Lobo joins our program, to guide participants towards new thinking.
  • Connected Creativity … Biomimicry is one approach to reimagining innovation inspired by nature – from Bullet Trains to Vibram Gecko shoes. Innovation expert Ramon Vullings applies connected creativity, combining ideas from different places.

Delivering “Human-Tech” Experiences

The robots are coming to take over our jobs, AI to replace our brains. Lawyers are apparently most at risk, followed by accountants. This assumes that machines have empathy and intuitive, that they can dream and engage. As Elon Musk’s Neuralink business proposes, the future is much more about how people can enhance machines, and technology can enhance human capabilities. It’s about fusion, not about alternatives.

Why?  Man vs Machine, or rather Man and Machine, is one of the hottest topics right now, with a multitude of approaches from thinkers and advisors.

  • Humanocracy … Hamel and Zanini’s great book on “Creating organisations as amazing as the people inside them” has become a manifesto for a more human business. It connects purpose, responsibility, creativity, organisation and talent.
  • Radically Human … IDEAS – intelligence, data, expertise, architecture and strategy – is Daugherty and Wilson’s model to connect the best of human and technology capability within the organisation.
  • Hooked … Nir Eyal’s work on how to build habit-forming products has become crucial in a world of devices and interfaces. Playing games or searching data is largely intuitive, therefore digital anthropology and behavioural economics are key.

What? Companies are now recognising that technology alone isn’t the answer, it’s not just about “digital” transformation, but a more holistic human-centric approach:

  • Canva … Melanie Perkins’s online graphic design business has become one of Australia’s first unicorns, and empowered people everywhere to turn their creativity into real action, from posters and presentations to cards and crafts.
  • Valio … Finland’s leading dairy has seen huge decline in its traditional milk-based product sales, and so set about using human insights and new tech possibilities to create non-diary alternatives. Not the easiest plan, as it is owned by dairy farmers.
  • Nubank … Brazil’s neo-bank developed a strategy to serve the unbanked. This required more than a technology solution, and instead understanding the emotional barriers to access, and confidence in its services and use.

How? We’ve developed a range of program content focused on technology, humanity and their fusion, where I bring work with others include:

  • Exponential Humanity … What does it mean to be human in a digital world? Veronica Reyero is a digital anthropologist from Spain, working with us to understand people and technology, and how the two can better work together.
  • Human-Digital Transformation … We know that a business transformation needs to be holistic, customer-centric, human-centric, tech-centric. Alan Brown with two decades of Silicon Valley tech experience joins our expert faculty.
  • Ultimate Projects … Most ideas, innovations and transformations fail because of their poor implementation. Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez, transformation director at GSK and author of HBR’s Project Management Handbook, helps you do it better.

Find out more at GlobalXED.com

“Leaders of business. This is your wake-up call. You’ve been living on borrowed time. Raping the natural world of its resources, and leaving a toxic mess in its place. These weather patterns are not freaks, they are the world you have created. Blinding the man on the street with your superficial innovations and image. What about the sweatshops, the emissions, the packaging, the greed? It doesn’t look good” 

Sustainability is the best opportunity for business to drive smarter innovation and profitable growth.

My book “People Planet Profit” explores how to address social and environmental challenges through customers and brands in a way that has more impact than politicians or environmentalists ever could. It introduces a more inspired, more balanced approach to business. Full of case studies and practical tools, it is the essential guide for managers.People do not trust business. They increasingly see companies as irresponsible, greedy and inhuman. Climate change and economic downturn have accelerated new expectations.

Businesses need to reengage people, to understand their new priorities, rethink their role and propositions, work in new ways, and enable people to do more themselves.  Resolving the many paradoxes faced by customers who want the best things but also to do “the right thing” and business leaders who want to grow but in more responsible ways.

There are many books about sustainability – mostly around the worthy themes of “reduce, recycle, reuse”. However this goes beyond that initial phases to “rethink” business.

It is positive not negative, about opportunities not problems, driven by creativity not compliance, a whole business challenge, not left to a few people. It is about connecting social, environment and economic challenges, to achieve a new balance, that is more different from competitors and inspiring your people. And its about building brands in way that builds capacity rather than just making sales, enabling people to do more for themselves and their worlds, rather than just buy your product or service.

People Planet Profit is about that these three agendas. But more importantly, about how they connect. How doing more for the Planet can create more for People and more for Profit. Innovation is about making new connections, and that is what this book is about, and why sustainability is the biggest catalyst, for more enlightened innovation, and more enduring growth.

  • Purpose beyond Profits : Business should be about making people’s lives better, defining an inspiring purpose and turning promises into reality.
  • Strategies for Growth : Business strategy must focus on finding markets with sustainable growth, creating differentiation by doing good and new business models for a new world.
  • Inspiring Leadership : Leaders of the new business world are the catalysts of change, the conscience of a better business, and facilitators of rethinking and innovation.
  • Conscience Consumers : There is a new consumer agenda, based around me, my world, and the world. Business must create more capacity, enabling people to do more.
  • Sustainable Innovation : Resolving the paradox between what people dream of, and what is good for all of us, between what makes most money and what is the right thing to do.
  • Engaging consumers : People are engaged through enlightened dialogue, building networks to enable collaborative actions, and delivering a more authentic consumer experience
  • Sustainable Operations : Businesses must learn to work better together – good sourcing, transporting and producing, embracing the power of sustainable energy and technology.
  • Delivering Performance : Certification, labels and sustainable impacts, linking sustainability to business results, managing business performance and reputation
  • Transforming Business : Making sustainable change happen, starting by articulating a better case for change, commercial and caring, and managing the implementation
  • Sustainable Futures : Leading in the new business world is about sustainable innovation and lifestyles, where business and brands are the new force for positive change

The book ends with a vision of the future business leader, Joachim Cruz, the CEO of BlueSky, an innovative travel business based in Copenhagen. He embraces the new agendas, the new technologies, the new capital markets. But he also has time to smile, to pick up his kids from school, and sit back and enjoy his home-grown glass of Tempranillo.

Covid-19 was a wake-up call

How has the recent pandemic challenged and heightened our thinking about these issues – purpose, sustainability, ESG and CSR, inequality, climate crisis and much more?

At the most fundamental level, Covid-19 has revealed three things:

1. Planet: Human activity is strongly related to climate change. The lockdown has resulted in rare sightings of blue skies from Beijing to Delhi, and worldwide CO2 emissions are predicted to fall by 8% in 2020.

2. People: COVID-19 has been hailed as the “big equalizer,” but the reality is that we aren’t equally resilient as a society. Socio-economic status is strongly related to vulnerabilities of all sorts, with the poor and underprivileged in harm’s way to a disproportionate extent.

3. Profit: We cannot survive for long without economic activity and the creation of financial value. Millions of businesses are failing in the face of the pandemic and as many as 40% of businesses may not reopen after this disaster.

In essence, we need to manage climate-related risks, strengthen our social fabric and inspire economic activity that creates value for humankind if we are to create a world that is sustainable and well-equipped to combat impending crises.

So what will it take to achieve this symbiosis between people, planet and profit – also referred to as the “triple bottom line” – in contrast to the single bottom line of profit alone?

For starters, we must accept a basic truism: in a world of finite resources, maximizing private gain inevitably leads to collective loss – that is, the loss of common goods, a phenomenon known as the tragedy of the commons. For example if, in a bid to boost profits, global multinationals build and run factories but do not pay for the pollution they create, we get global warming. The collective is more important than the individual.

If Covid-19 has taught us anything about how to surmount our socio-environmental challenges, it is that each one of us – as individuals, companies or governments – needs to take ownership of our future. Being a bystander is no longer an option. Yet, if you’re like one of the thousands of executives I have encountered over the years, you likely believe that sustainability – that is, the wellbeing of our planet and its people – is important, but it’s “someone else’s problem”. In companies with a sustainability department, everyone points to that department as being responsible for everything sustainability-related.

Why is it that something as important as sustainability is given short shrift by so many in the corporate sphere? Over the past years, I’ve visited dozens of large, publicly listed companies and spoken with hundreds of employees to try to find out. I’ve been to head offices, mines, stores and factories, travelling from Madagascar to India to Chile’s Atacama Desert.

1. Find more purpose

To take ownership of our post-pandemic future, businesses must start by asking the all-important question of corporate purpose – or “why do we do what we do”? Leaders must articulate how the firm creates value for all stakeholders, not just shareholders, and accept that profit is the consequence of such value creation. This process of defining purpose makes it clear that businesses exist to serve society and not the other way round, and the link to sustainability becomes clear. As Paul Polman, ex-CEO of Unilever, said: “Sustainability is totally driven by purpose. It starts with the overall firm belief that we are here to serve society … and only by doing that well, we can make all our stakeholders, including our shareholders, happy.”

How can leaders discover that “true north” – their company’s purpose? Often, it happens via epiphanies or first-hand experience on the front lines. Francesco Starace, the CEO of Enel, one of the largest energy companies in the world, had his epiphany while working in the Middle East in the mid-1980’s. He realized that an energy company’s job was not to foist new habits on people, but rather to enable them to do what they wanted to do in the first place. Crossing an emotional barrier, as Starace did in the 1980s, and identifying with a company’s purpose in a new and personal way enables leaders to build their own sense of sustainability ownership and address the critical problems of our world. “Sooner or later,” as Starace told me, “you have to face up to the facts about why you do what you do.”

2. Engage all stakeholders

Armed with a sense of purpose and a set of concrete sustainability goals, your company is ready to create motivation and ability among your stakeholders, and to help integrate those sustainability goals into their daily work routines.

Market sustainability to stakeholders as an opportunity to contribute to the future wellbeing of the company and the world. To entice employees and other stakeholders to engage in sustainability, appeal sometimes to the head (this is the smart thing to do), other times to the heart (right thing to do), and often both. Lisa Jackson, vice president of environment, policy and social initiatives at Apple told me: “The easiest and most fun part of sustainability is when you can go to the business – as we have done now several times – and say, ‘It will save you money to reduce the amount of scrap metal that is produced. It will save you money to think about packaging in a different way’.”

Alongside motivation, you also have to create the ability to act sustainably. Increase the capability of your workforce by putting systems, structures and training in place that make it easier to act sustainably. Give your stakeholders the tools, confidence and freedom they need. In a word, make sustainability everybody’s job. “If there’s one exception, everyone thinks they’re the exception,” said Keith Weed, Unilever’s chief marketing officer and head of sustainability at the time.

3. Achieve more together

Form broader industry collaborations to address complex problems. Such collaborations, often with traditional competitors, help create the systemic changes that our planet and its people need – and that businesses need, too. “If everything fails around us, we fail too,” said the chief sustainability officer of Marks & Spencer.

Topics such as deforestation, effluent in waterways, or buying minerals from the Congo can only be addressed by a consortium, in which each party, again, needs to rise above self-interest and think about the wellbeing of the collective. Paul Polman has been quick to point out: “We don’t have the right level of cooperation at the global governance level to deal with these issues, and I hope that the business community will step up and fill that void.”

Watching the pandemic unfold before us and seeing both the healing effects of our slowed economic activity on the skies and our planet as well as the horrific plight of our fellow human beings, leaves most of us “uncomfortably numb” and yearning to do something about securing the future. Issues such as global warming, inequality and poverty – as outlined in the SDGs – are gaining urgency. Taking ownership of addressing such issues should form the new leadership mandate.

Deloitte’s “The Sustainability Transformation” report focuses on this Covid acceleration of focus on sustainability, and also the shifts in thinking it has embraced:

The Deloitte report includes an excellent summary of the new ways in which organisations need to embrace sustainability – for competitive advantage, for financial performance improvement, and for more positive impact on our world.

More from Peter Fisk

More from outside

 

“If quantum mechanics hasn’t profoundly shocked you, you haven’t understood it yet.” said Niels Bohr. Some years ago as a physics student I came across that phrase, and dismissed it. Some years later, when I had grasped the real ideas and implications of quantum mechanics, compared to classical atomic theory, I realised how true it was.

Quantum computing will profoundly shock you.

If you think of a classical computer as a bunch of coins on a table, heads and tails, ones and zeros, a quantum computer is what happens when you toss all the coins up in the air at once and watch them spin.

A new report The Business Potential of Quantum Computing, by ADL, shows how the technology promises to transform business through its ability to tackle so-called intractable problems with exponentially increasing complexity that currently are beyond the reach of conventional high-performance computers

These types of problems can be grouped broadly into four categories: simulation, optimization, machine learning, and cryptography. The use cases for business across the first three categories are almost endless, from fully digitalized drug discovery and new materials development through to logistics, supply chain management, and portfolio optimization.

Given the current state of play, companies that have not already done so take steps now to ensure they are not left behind. The Quantum Computing learning slope is steep. The ADL report sets out four steps companies should take to prepare for the future, including exploring applicability, monitoring technical developments, engaging with the ecosystem, and building knowledge and capability.

Quantum computing in action

  • Aerospace: By considering an exponential number of variables, quantum computing could help determine the optimal alternative for each route. It can also help find the best way to allocate resources so that the crew and passengers are impacted as little as possible.
  • Healthcare: Harnessing the power of quantum computing can significantly accelerate the timelines of various stages of the pharmaceutical research and development process. It can help life science companies by accelerating the speed of the pre-clinical phase and reducing the cost of drug development.
  • Finance: Quantum computing will be able to help solve the problems of customers in finance institutes. It can optimize investment portfolios and financial derivatives. It can also enable the institutions to accurately characterize anomalous transactions and rapidly detect fraud.
  • Chemistry: It is likely that quantum computing can be applied to simulate the properties and behavior of new molecular structures in chemistry. It can address the probabilistic challenges of quantum mechanics. In the future, quantum computing is expected to predict molecular properties for new molecules.

Here are 3 real examples – from BMW in automotive, Speedel in logistics, Qubit in pharma.

Physical prototyping is an expensive area of R&D. Automakers spend up to 30% of the total R&D expenditure to pre-test hardware components, assemble them, and test the final product. This motivated BMW  to contract a quantum computing technology developer, Pasqal. BMW wanted to learn how to apply the new technology to metal forming. With quantum computing in place, they now perform more virtual testing and have reduced the number of tests required. This has led to a 50% cost reduction in prototyping and testing.

Speedel is a UK B2B courier firm that works with aerospace and manufacturing companies. It uses hundreds of vehicles every day on multiple routes. This means billions of possible variants in route creation. A conventional computer can’t process so many shipment simulations, so the company decided to implement quantum computing. They developed a practical app running on quantum algorithms. The app calculates all the possible options in planning and routing (yes, those billions mentioned earlier), does traffic simulations, and, finally, identifies the best option. For a fleet of hundreds of vehicles, this means huge time and money savings. Now, Speedel gets more shipments delivered in a shorter time frame.

The French company, Qubit Pharmaceuticals, uses quantum computing to model how molecules behave and interact. It’s a small research team without the resources of big pharma. However, in March 2022, they launched an ambitious program for designing novel COVID-19 treatments. What’s more, their algorithms helped discover the most suitable compounds in just six months. Qubit Pharmaceuticals tested huge data libraries to find compounds that could help fight the virus. Their solution carried out simulations with drug candidates and modeled possible chemical reactions. In the end, they discovered two novel drug candidates and brought them to a further drug development stage. The research is ongoing. Over six months, the team has shown astonishing results, given the time and cost constraints.

Neuromorphic computing

However there is more.

The neuromorphic chip is a silicon chip designed to mimic the form of the human brain. This game-changing approach transforms the way our devices process information, moving them closer to the way our brains process information.

Neural networks can now be etched into silicon not unlike the billions of neurons and synapses that form our nervous system and brain. This means software and data no longer have to be processed on different chips, they can be stored and processed on the same chip—saving significant time, energy and space. In many ways, it is a great example of how our modern world, already powered by software, is about to change in a really big way.

Neuromorphic computation and quantum computing always seemed that they were years away. The fact is commercial neuromorphic chips and quantum computers are in use today. These two new technologies are going to change what looked like a straight path to Artificial Intelligence.

  • Aerospace and defense: Neuromorphic computing architecture can help in pattern recognition, event reasoning, and robust decision-making. It can also aid in adaptive learning and autonomous tasking for energy-efficient agile Air Force platforms.
  • Self-driving cars: Similar to space communications, neuromorphic computing enhances self-driving. In imitation of the human brain, neuromorphic chips attempt to think and learn on their own and then adapt their learning to unexpected scenarios on the road.
    While conventional computers run commands sequentially, neuromorphic computers process and store data almost at the same time. This makes self-driving cars more energy efficient. It can also help autonomous vehicles learn skills and execute tasks more efficiently.
  • Healthcare: Neuromorphic platforms can be used for the hardware-based implementation of ML methods in treating Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in home-care environments. Real-time analysis of data can be obtained by bringing data from the backend onto a neuromorphic chip. Furthermore, securing sensitive medical data on a single chip complies better with patient privacy regulations. Since neuromorphic platforms process data near a patient, it offers a large fault tolerance for medical applications. Moreover, hardware-based neuromorphic systems require less computational power making them perfect for PoC medical devices.