Peter Fisk

War. Inflation. Recession. Pandemic. The pursuit of economic stability is increasingly unrealisable, with the volatility of recent years challenging leaders and companies to find new ways to create value as they navigate the changing business landscape.

When turmoil hits, business leaders and investors face notoriously unreliable macroeconomic forecasts, whipsawing data, and contradictory opinions. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral—or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected. Leaders must also assess the doom-laden public macroeconomic discourse, which habitually presents worst-case scenarios as foregone conclusions.

How can business leaders avoid these traps and make better strategic decisions?

Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

In his new book, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms, BCG Global Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to analyse and understand the macroeconomy, or what they call “regime analysis”, that pushes beyond conventional model-based prediction to emphasise structural context and judgment.

Focusing on what it takes for macroeconomic regimes to break, they apply their approach to key risks in the real economy, financial structures, and geopolitical arrangements to help senior executives and investors assess the true risks of their economic context and to build their capacity to respond to changing conditions more effectively.

With dose of rational optimism, the book explores the key macro debates and controversies that shape our time, and it empowers leaders with the analytical skills to assess and judge macroeconomic risks for themselves, with a new way of thinking that will continue to apply as risks change over time.

 

• Europe 2024: Subdued growth, political fragmentation and the green transition.
• North America 2024: US elections will dominate the year, while the economy will struggle with higher borrowing costs.
• Latin America 2024: substantial political change has led to democratic retreat and social risks.
• Asia 2024: Strong growth despite China’s slowing economy and geopolitical tensions.

Ipsos’ Global predictions for 2024: Optimism is on the rise as more think next year will be better

• 53% say 2023 was a bad year for them and 70% say it was a bad year for their country. This is the lowest level since before the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Seventy per cent think next year will be a better year than this one. This is an increase of 5pp on last year’s figure.
• More people think AI will lead to more jobs being lost than being created in 2024.
• After 2023 being the hottest year on record, 81% expect average global temperatures to go even higher in 2024.
• A majority (59%) think we’ll spend more time working in the office in 2024 than working at home.

The Economist focuses on 10 business trends:

• Central banks including America’s Federal Reserve start to reduce interest rates as price rises slow. With global inflation still at 5%, however, consumers remain thrifty.
• Amid efforts to slow climate change, renewable-energy consumption climbs by 11% to a new high. But fossil fuels still meet over four-fifths of energy demand
• IT spending picks up, rising by about 9%. Artificial intelligence generates remarkable hype but produces precious little revenue and plenty of scrutiny.
• The gap between the infrastructure the world needs and what it gets amounts to $3trn. To plug its infrastructure hole, Asia’s gross fixed investment expands by 4%.
• Revenue in the advertising industry increases by 5%, thanks to America’s presidential election and big sporting events such as the Paris Olympics.
• International tourism rises above geopolitical and economic uncertainty to create record revenue of $1.5trn, fuelled by high prices and post-pandemic wanderlust.
• A greying world spends vigorously on health. With about one in ten people aged 65 or older, health care makes up one-tenth of global gdp.
• America shells out $886bn on defence, supporting Ukraine and countering China—whose neighbours, including Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines, also bolster their defences.
• Electric vehicles speed forth, driven by strong government support. One in four new cars is a plug-in, with more than half of these sold in China.
• With 60% of America’s firms allowing working from home, a fifth of American offices lie empty. The eu’s less relaxed employers will keep its vacancy rate at just 8%.

Where’s the love?

Accenture’s Life Trends 2024 report is a refreshingly human view of emerging behaviours, but from a tech expert company. largely thanks to its acquisition of Fjord which did great work on trends.

Davos 2024. Trust was on the lips of every participant.

Three years of increasing division, heightened hostility and a surge in conflicts have created a challenging global landscape. Humanity is grappling with a converging multitude of crisis and change, the need to reinvigorate economies, respond to the threat of climate change, and ensure AI is used as a force for good.

Trust comes in many forms. Trust in authority – from global institutions to governments, scientists and technologists, businesses and brands. Trust in each other. Ultimately we trust in people. Do we accept them? Do we believe them? Do we follow them? Are they authentic? Are they worthy? Are they right?

The World Economic Forum’s theme was in particular focused on our trust in the future.

“After an era that lifted a billion people out of poverty and improved living standards everywhere, the anxiety about losing control over what lies ahead is pushing people towards embracing extreme ideologies and the leaders who champion them.”

Rebuilding trust in our future is paramount. We can only trust in the future, if we trust in people. In institutions. And from an economic perspective, in business.

The Trust Paradox

Rapid innovation offers the promise of a new era of prosperity, but instead risks exacerbating trust issues, leading to further societal instability and political polarisation.

This is the paradox explored in the 2024 Edelman Trust Barometer.

“In a year where half the global population can vote in new leaders, the acceptance of innovation is essential to the success of our society. While people agree that scientists are essential to the acceptance of innovation, many are concerned that politics has too much influence on science. This perception is contributing to the decline of trust in the institutions responsible for steering us through change and towards a more prosperous future.”

Only one third of consumers trust most of the brands they buy or use, according to an Edelman special report.

According to the survey of 16,000 people in eight countries, 81% of consumers see brand trust is a deal breaker or a deciding factor when they consider a purchase. Trust is becoming more important because of growing concerns about the fast pace of innovation and automation, the use of personal data in tracking and targeting, and the impact of products and productions on society and the environment.

“Trust has always played an important role in brand purchase” says Richard Edelman, CEO of Edelman. “But consumers now have much larger expectations of brands, and their trust is predicated on how well a brand can pass through the three gates of trust – product, customer experience and impact on society.”

When brands build trust, consumers reward them. Consumers who trust a brand are more than twice as likely to be the first to buy the brand’s new products, to stay loyal in the face of new competition, to recommend it, and defend it when things go wrong. Also, a brand trusted because of its broader role in society, is almost twice as likely to gain such support, than if it’s trust is due to product aspects only.

Despite all of this evidence, brands are increasingly untrusted.

Most consumers believe that a brand has a responsibility to get involved in at least one social issue that does not directly impact its business, yet few see brands doing so.  Indeed, most people think brands are using social good as a marketing tool, “trustwashing” if you like. This exasperates their loss of trust.

However people’s trust in governments and other institutions is far less than in business, meaning that whilst many are unsure, they do see business as a better platform for addressing social and environmental issues than politicians and their agencies. Interestingly, people believe they have more influence on business than governments and can persuade them to take these issues more seriously.

 “It’s time for brands to take the next giant step,” says Edelman. “They must accept the responsibility consumers have given them to effect change and welcome greater accountability and measurement of their impact.”

Building trust with authenticity

We engage more emotionally, human and empathetic, than every before. In fact people trust each other more than any business, they influence and are loyal to each other.

25 years ago, Ray Davis arrived in the small Oregon town of Roseburg, where nothing much changed for the lumberjacks of the huge surrounding forests. His task was to transform the sleepy old South Umpqua State Bank with its 40 employees before it died.

Initially people poked fun at his insistence that employees, or colleagues as he called them, answer the phone with a cheery “Welcome to the World’s Greatest Bank.” However, over time, it became true. The bank was transformed, firstly by learning from other great customer service businesses, not banks. Banks become community hubs, interiors were opened up and modernised, products and language humanised. They served coffee, played music, and showcased great local businesses. Staff smiled, and customers loved it. Nowadays, Umpqua Bank, with over $25 billion assets and 350 branches across America,  is one of the best banks.

However, Davis, now enjoying his retirement, or in “cruise” mode, as Umpqua calls it for customers who wanted to slow down and enjoy life, has a warning about change. “When we arrived in Roseburg, change was exciting, people loved progress. Today change is different, it has become relentless and dominated by technology. It scares the hell out of a lot of people” he warns. As change accelerates, and technology dominates, many people lose faith in progress. The bond of trust can be lost.

Being real, authentic and transparent

In her book Who Can You Trust? Rachel Botsman asks “If you can’t trust those in charge, who can you trust? From government to business, banks to media, trust in institutions is at an all-time low.” However, she argues that technology can enable trust in new forms, and that our main problem is a mismatch, saying “institutional trust was not designed for the digital age.”

Originally trust was built locally between people, in local communities. Then as cities and business grew, we deferred to institutions as curators of trust – governments and corporations – trusting them to act on our behalf. Trust went from people, to being built around hierarchies. Today, trust is built in networks, and flows between people enabled by technology. For a business there are three layers of trust:

• Trust in the organisation: the reputation of the business and brand, particularly in terms of ethics and responsibilities, openness and transparency.
• Trust in the concept: the relevance to customers, authentic and reliable, a positive way to solve a problem, and delivers on every promise.
• Trust in the people: the respect for people who lead the business, and deliver the concept, who are real and authentic, empathetic and caring.

Authenticity is closely associated with provenance, which is now a source of transparency for many manufacturers utilising the potential of IOT sensors and blockchain certification. Cult Beauty uses a transparency app to help users of its cosmetics to understand the sources of all products, from oils to colourings. Canada’s Bridgehead Coffee was one of the first to set benchmarks for other in fairtrade and organic certification. Fishpeople can tell you the which boat caught your fish and when. Tiffany & Co. can do the same with diamonds.

Whilst all of these matter, the most important is that people trust people. For most customers, they see two faces of the organisation – the leader who typically appears as the company spokesperson in times of challenge, and the everyday frontline employees who sell and serve customers in stores, on phones, or one to one.

As Botsman says “Most businesses that we interact with are built around money, and money only goes so far. Money is the currency of transactions. Trust is the currency of interactions.”

Trusted leaders

Another clue might lie in the new Brand Guardianship Index 2024 produced by Brand Finance. This takes a numeric perspective on the impact which leaders have made to their organisations over time. Not just financially, although this is one useful metric as a proxy for customer and employee engagement, but through a host of other ESG and related metrics too.

Huateng “Pony” Ma, CEO of Tencent, recognised as world’s leading CEO – or at least “brand guardian”, in the report – for his guardianship of WeChat brand. “His leadership, marked by a steadfast commitment to innovation, user engagement, and trust, has not only propelled Tencent to remarkable heights in the technology sector but has also set a gold standard for CEOs worldwide.”

Under Ma’s leadership, WeChat has become the world’s strongest brand, as measured in the Brand Finance Global 500 Index of brands. Ma has led WeChat to build exceptional brand strength, underpinned by its essential, familiar, and trusted status in China, its dominant market.

People trust people

Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s CEO, provides a model for business engagement with society when he gave his views on corporate responsibility, the pressing need for human oversight of artificial intelligence systems and a succinct description of how Microsoft has earned its social license to operate in many countries around the world.

Nadella says every company is now a technology company and that brings with it a range of responsibilities, particularly in areas such as the ethics of AI, which he seeks to proactively take a lead in. “Technology is going to be so pervasive in our lives, and across all industries, that we’d better have one core currency around it which is trust. Without trust, we are not going to have a long-term business” he said at a recent Envision event.

Indeed, Microsoft has positioned itself as the world’s “good tech” company, whilst Facebook and Alphabet are often seen by regulators and politicians as “bad tech”, given their reluctance to address issues like privacy and fake news.

Leadership of trust, and trust in leaders, drives everything else.

We know that any form of change sparks fear in the human psyche. If not addressed early, proactively and directly, fear of job losses due to automation or globalisation can quickly take hold. In times of crisis, a leader brings urgency and compassion, but if there is not also direction and hope, then people lose confidence, and courage in their own actions.

Employees trust leaders who do what they expect them to do.

This requires an openness of leaders, so that people know what to expect. It means engaging people in the future direction, being honest about the need and implications of change, asking for ideas, and equally challenge, being visible and accessible, and being human.

Externally, there was a time when business leaders would never say anything controversial, when businesses were agnostic to the debates of society. Today, as people trust business more than politicians to show them a way forwards, they seek business leaders to take a stand, to have a point of view.

This can be controversial, a viewpoint means that not everybody will agree, that some of your customers might feel alienated or even reject you. Apple is a strong advocate of diversity and human rights; Starbucks challenged the state on their actions against migrants. Leaders need to step up, to express their view, to fight what they believe is right.

In this way, brands develop a more authentic personality, business adopts a more meaningful role in society, and you gain the respect – and trust – of people.

Cradled in your skull, immersed in protective fluid, your brain is your body’s mission control. It changes radically throughout a human’s life, starting work not long after they’re conceived and continuing even beyond your final breath.

As a business leader you are asked to step up, to see business and markets from new perspectives – and in particular to make sense of fast, complex and dynamic futures. As a leader, rather than functional expert, your challenge is to connect the organisation, to ask the big questions rather than having all the answers.

This is a huge mindset shift, and particularly for leaders who are also probably getting older, and could easily fall into old habits, as their brain starts to fall into standard ways of behaving, and naturally diminishes with age, and without stimulus.

As a leader, now is the time for peak performance, to dream of new possibilities, to drive innovation and change, and to act in ways that are different from what got you here. Now is the time to recharge, and even reshape, your brain.

How your brain changes

We used to assume that we each have our established ways of thinking and behaving, and as we get older the capability of our brain to learn and adapt declines. Medical science suggests that the volume of the brain and/or its weight declines with age at a rate of around 5% per decade after age 40 with the actual rate of decline possibly increasing with age particularly over age 70.

Yet our brain can grow new neurons at any age.

Each neuron can transmit up to 1,000 nerve signals a second and make as many as 10,000 connections with other neurons. Our thoughts come from the chemical signals that pass across the synaptic gaps between neurons: the more connections we make, the more powerful and adaptive our brain can be.

Tara Swart is a neuroscientist, practising medical doctor, and executive coach, with a background in psychiatry. I first met her on stage in Bratislava, where we both were delivering our “Big Idea” for Europe. Her first book, “Neuroscience for Leadership” was more of an academic text, while her new book is “The Source” is more populist, and claims most of the things we want from life – health, happiness, wealth, love – are governed by our ability to think, feel and act. In other words, by our brain.

Keeping the brain fit through exercise, continual learning and rich experiences, enhances your mental agility. In the past leaders relied more upon experience and procedure, in today’s world we need leaders who can make sense of new patterns, imagine new possibilities, thrive on diversity of thought and complexity of action. Leaders need to have a mind that is always ahead, seeing and anticipating what next.

“Think of the brain as the hardware of a computer” says Swart. “Your mind is the software. You’re the coder who upgrades the software to transform the data (your thoughts). You also control the power supply that fuels the computer — the food and drink you consume, when and how to exercise and meditate, who to interact with… You have the power to maintain or destroy your neural connections.”

Mindful activities such as yoga or meditation reduce levels of cortisol and increase the fold of the outer cortex of the brain, allowing the pre-frontal cortex to better regulate our emotional responses. Swart says just 12 minutes a day, most days of the week, will make a noticeable difference. New experiences such as travel, learning a skill, such as a foreign language, and meeting new people can stimulate the growth of new neurons.

How to change your brain

Brain plasticity allows you to learn new skills, gather and use new information, and recover from brain injury. How can you rewire your brain?

There are some obvious ways to improve your brain function, such as drink more water, get more exercise, and don’t read from electronic screens in the last hour before bed. But there is much more besides. Some are obvious, some less so. Some are just good healthy tips for everyone, some require deliberate focus in order to achieve your goals.

For starters here are 10 simple ways to start changing your brain:

1. Run

Physical activity can improve your brain’s plasticity, a cerebral quality that affects memory, motor skills, and the ability to learn – according to a study conducted at the University of Adelaide in Australia. A small group of adults in their late 20s and early 30s participated in a 30-minute session of vigorous activity. Immediately after the session, their brains showed a significant increase in neuroplasticity. If that’s not enough motivation to get out for run, research shows that exercise also release chemicals in the brain that make us feel happy. Endorphins and a protein called Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) are released in the brain as you do physical exercise, two chemicals which help fight stress and promote happiness.

2. Sleep more

Sleep is an essential activity that not even science can fully explain. You feel better with it, but really bad without it. Going without sleep can make you irritable, lead to memory loss and false memories, and, in extreme cases, cause slurred speech and even brain damage. So what happens when you sleep? Your brain gets to work archiving memories, making creative connections, and cleaning out toxins. Even a short afternoon nap can provide you with a boost of energy equivalent to roughly one or two cups of coffee, as well as increased retention of facts and greater creativity.

3. Meditate

Meditation doesn’t just help you find emotional balance in your life – it actually changes your brain. Before beginning a regular meditation habit, people tend to have strong neural connections with the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, what is often called the “Me Center” of the brain. As a result, they are more likely to interpret physical sensations of anxiety or fear as a personal problem, something directly-related to themselves. As a result, they are more likely to experience repeated thoughts about their lives, mistakes they’ve made, what people think about them. In contrast, people who meditate regularly show weaker connections with the “Me Center” of the brain and stronger connections with the lateral prefrontal cortex, or the “Assessment Center” of the brain. This helps meditators to take problems less personally and approach them more logically. This means that, through meditation, we can become better at managing anxiety, stress, and potentially dangerous situations. In addition, the neural connections which grow stronger through meditation help promote empathy and compassion.

4. Drink coffee

From the time you wake up until you lay down to sleep, neurons in your brain produce a curious chemical called adenosine. As adenosine is produced, it binds with adenosine receptors in the brain, causing you to feel tired and eventually fall asleep. When caffeine enters the bloodstream and makes its way to the brain, it blocks the adenosine receptors.  That’s what gives you the boost of energy and alertness, improved memory and cognitive performance, increased focus, and even increased accuracy of reactions. Over time, however, your brain will begin to build up a tolerance to the drug, and you may experience withdrawal symptoms, such as headaches, increased sleepiness, lack of concentration, and irritability. Coffee (or more precisely, caffeine) changes your brain chemistry, providing you with that boost of energy and focus you need in the morning.

5. Read 

Brain scans of the most avid readers typically show heightened connectivity in the left temporal cortex, the area of the brain associated with receptivity for language. Readers also often experience something called “embodied semantics.” That’s the technical way of saying that the “brain connectivity during a thought-about action actually mirrors the connectivity that occurs during the actual action.  For example, thinking about swimming can trigger some of the same neural connections as physical swimming.” That means that imagining actions as you read about them can physically alter the connections in your brain.

6. Listen to music

When some people want to truly focus, they seek total silence, but many turn on their music.  When you graph the electrical activity of your brain using EEG, you generate what is called a brainwave pattern, which is called a “wave” pattern because of its cyclic, wave-like nature…When we lower the brain wave frequency…we can put ourselves in an ideal condition to learn new information, perform more elaborate tasks, learn languages, analyze complex situations and even be in what sports psychologists call “The Zone”, which is a state of improved focus and performance in athletic competitions or exercise. Part of this is because being the slightly decreased electrical activity in the brain can lead to significant increases in feel-good brain chemicals like endorphins, noroepinephrine and dopamine. So you can actually “force” your brain into this ideal “alpha brain wave relaxation” with the right frequency of music.

7. Wander

Spending time in outdoor green spaces has been linked to improvements in mood, concentration, and creativity. Brooding, which is known among cognitive scientists as morbid rumination, is a mental state familiar to most of us, in which we can’t seem to stop chewing over the ways in which things are wrong with ourselves and our lives. This broken-record fretting is not healthy or helpful. It can be a precursor to depression and is disproportionately common among city dwellers compared with people living outside urban areas, studies show. Going for a 90-minute walk in a quiet, tree-lined neighbourhood can have the effect less morbid rumination and showed less blood flow to the subgenual prefrontal cortex than those who had walked along a busy highway for the same amount of time.

8. Don’t multitask

Research suggests that humans are physically incapable of multitasking. Instead, the human brain merely single-tasks very quickly, switching back and forth between multiple tasks at a rate that makes you feel and believe you’re actually doing two things at once. If you think you spend much of your time “multitasking”, you could actually be rewiring your brain – and not in a good way. Your attention span is considerably shortened and your emotional intelligence is stunted. At the same time, you become worse at sorting through information and completing creative tasks.

9. Eat less sugar

Overconsumption of sugar may impair neurological functioning, according to a study at UCLA. Heavy sugar intake caused the rats to develop a resistance to insulin — a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and also regulates the function of brain cells. Insulin strengthens the synaptic connections between brain cells, helping them to communicate better and thereby form stronger memories. So when insulin levels in the brain are lowered as the result of excess sugar consumption, cognition can be impaired. Too much sugar can impair memory and learning skills, and may even contribute to diseases like dementia. It can also make you depressed. Sugar activates the mood-enhancing neurotransmitter serotonin in our brain. When continuously overstimulated, our serotonin levels begin to deplete, making it more difficult for us to regulate our mood.

10. Believe

Believing you can change, that you can be better, and you can achieve more, is the starting point. Open your mind to the possibility. Rather than going in to the rationale, let’s take the inspiring story of Tan Le, as I described in my recent book Business Recoded. She is the Vietnamese boat refugee who became one of the world’s leading neuroscientists.

Tan Le’s inspired mind

Tan Le was only 4 years old when she fled Vietnam with her mother and sister, crowded on board a fishing boat with 162 other people, in search of a better life. It was a difficult choice, leaving her father behind and heading out to the uncertain seas.

For 5 days they sailed, and then after losing power, drifted across the South China Sea. She remembers the long dark nights and rough seas, and everyone becoming desperate once food and water ran out.

Fortune came in the shape of a British oil tanker, which offered to rescue them. After three months in a refugee camp, the family were offered a flight to Australia. As the plane flew across the unknown country, she was struck by the huge emptiness of the land, and later reflected on it as symbolising the new opportunities which she could never have imagined.

At 8 years old, her mum says she was a dreamer, and particularly liked to pretend she had the power of telepathy, as inspired by a movie she had seen. In reality, she called herself a curious nerd, desperate to work hard and seize her opportunity. At the same time, she was very conscious about being different – her looks, her accent, her background.

Then, when she was 20, she won Young Australian of the Year for her work in helping other immigrants to settle locally, to learn the English language, and to find jobs. She was astonished that somebody like her could win such an award. It was the moment that really opened her mind.

She started to look beyond her mum’s dream of her becoming a doctor or lawyer. She qualified as a lawyer, but quickly turned her attention to software engineering, exploring how brainwaves can control digital devices.  It was all about understanding the brain in context, and how it could be directed to do more productive work, to engage consumers more deeply with brands, to help people with disabilities. Her early work included the development of EEG (electroencephalography) headsets enabling people to control a car, or drone, or game, with your mind.

“When the neurons in your brain interact, they emit electrical impulses, which we can then translate into patterns that become commands, by using machine learning” she explained.

She founded Emotiv, a bio-informatics company focused on understanding the brain in context, and how it could be directed to do more productive work, to engage consumers more deeply with brands, to help people with disabilities.

Chosen to be part of the World Economic Forum’s Young Business Leaders in 2009, she sat at a dinner held in Buenos Aires with fellow participants. Opposite her sat a wheelchair-bound Brazilian called Rodrigo Hübner Mendes. He introduced himself as a Formula One racing car driver, who used a specially developed brain interface to control the vehicle.

Mendes explained how he would turn left by imagining eating tasty food, turn right by imagining he was riding a bike, and accelerate by imagining he had just scored a World Cup goal for Brazil. He explained how the technology for the car was developed by a small innovative company called Emotiv. She smiled, deeply moved by his story.

Today Emotiv is a world-leader in brain interface software, with technology that is cheaper than a gaming console, but has the ability to fundamentally disrupt and improve our lives. With offices around the world, She spends much of her time in Hanoi, where her ground-breaking technology is being developed by young Vietnamese technologists.

Lee reflects on her personal journey saying, “Like my mum, I took a leap of faith into the world of technology, and particularly into a completely new area for which I had no qualifications or experience.”

She freely admits that she doesn’t have all the answers, with “I try to make the right choices, but you never know exactly where you are going, or if doing your best” but is also an infectious optimism “The future is not hear yet. We have the chance to create it, to co-create it.”

As for Mendes, he recently found himself at a conference in Dubai listening to world champion F1 driver Lewis Hamilton. When it came to questions at the end, Mendes’ hand immediately sprung up. He challenged the world champion to a race, using brainwave-controlled cars. Hamilton, a lover of new technologies, accepted. The race awaits.

Change happens fast … the dramatic progress of AI is challenging our minds, a new disruptive generation of brands are shaking up markets, multiple destructive conflicts rage across the globe, ever more extreme weather driven by our reluctance to really address the carbon crisis, and millennial consumers growing up quickly … from the adoption of electric vehicles to gene-edited healthcare, the world looks very different from even a few years ago.

• 2023 was a nexus of change, a year of innovating and transforming everything
• Ideas drive the world forwards, the coming wave, and achieving great things

2024 is Olympic year, and the Stade de France is ready to witness a host of world records, as super shoes transform the performance of human beings. Adidas’s Noah Lyles and Nike’s Faith Kipyegon will battle for superstardom on the athletics track. Meanwhile 4.2 billion people will vote in over 70 national elections this year, the most in history, with technology likely to play a key role in targeting and influencing outcomes.

• Future Radar: Exploring the emerging trends and opportunities, and making them happen
• Trend Kaleidoscope 2024: Curating all the best trend reports, What should you do next?

Western economies did better than expected in 2023 but significant challenges persist, and higher interest rates will be painful for companies and consumers alike. China’s growth has slowed, tensions rise over Taiwan, but companies will find it hard to reduce their supply chains’ dependency of old. East and West will increasingly turn to the “middle powers” of the global south, and the imagineering states of the Middle East, shifting from oil to culture, knowledge and tourism.

• Generative AI: from Anthropic to Inflection, Gemini to Perplexity, do you “grok” it?
• Think like a futurist, to make sense of change, find new opportunities, make smarter decisions

The exponential progress of AI will continue, in some ways a race to shape the future of AGI, by a reenergised OpenAI and many others like Anthropic and Perplexity. Businesses will prioritise initiatives to embrace it, initially for efficiency but increasingly for competitive advantage, Quantum computing will accelerate progress, while regulators struggle to cope. Unexpected uses and abuses will become frequent, from its disruption of jobs to potential for election meddling.

• Achieving Peak Performance: find your future flow, play to your strengths, build endurance and agility
• Imagineering = Imagination + Engineering … How Disney keeps the magic alive

The clean-energy transition is creating new green superpowers and redrawing the energy-resources map. Lithium, copper and nickel matter much more, while oil and gas, and the regions that dominate their supply, matter less.  Competition for green resources is reshaping geopolitics and trade, and creating some unexpected winners and losers. As the recent Earthshot prize winners demonstrate, there is a shift to regenerative economies, doing more with what we already have.

“In the past, you made a decision and that was it. Now, you make a decision and you say, ‘What happens next?’ There’s always a next”. That was Alvin Toffler in Future Shock.

Much of my work – from keynotes and workshops to strategies and transformations – is with companies like Adidas in sportswear and Airbus in aerospace, Saudi Arabia’s STC in technology to Japan’s Sompo in financial services. In the past, boards and executive teams would seek my help on optimising performance – today they seek help to make sense of emerging futures, how to shape new visions and strategies, how to transform, while also delivering today.

IMF, another of my ongoing clients this year, see in their IMF Economic Outlook 2024 a continued stagnation of growth in western markets (1.2% in Europe, 1.5% in USA) but higher in Asia (4.4% in China, 6.1% in India), and 2.9% average globally in 2024. The EIU’s Industry Outlook 2024 reflects on the turbulence of recent years for most companies from the pandemic to soaring commodity prices, high interest rates and political disruption.

The last 12 months has certainly sparked enthusiasm for AI startups, investment and innovation – from the launch of ChatGPT to the implosion of OpenAI, and the rise of a host of new rivals like but at the same time (a legacy of pandemic, and antidote to digitalisation) is the desire to be more human – more personal, empathic, and in search of real experiences, from in-store immersions to meditative moments and travel adventures.

• What every executive needs to know about AI by Bain
• The CEO’s Guide to the Generative AI Revolution by BCG
• The state of AI, generative AI’s breakout year by McKinsey

Technological innovation is taking us in two directions – sustainable improvement and synthetic reality – to address the problems of the past (most significantly, the huge and difficult effort to decarbonise old industries – although energy transition has stalled because of the greed of higher oil prices) – and also a huge rise in new synthetic innovations, from gene-editing and mRNA in healthcare, to alternative foods and VR gaming.

You can read all the trend reports in my Trend Kaleidoscope 2024, but the point is not the clever ideas and catchy phrases, it’s knowing which trends to embrace, and how they catalyse, guide and accelerate a transformation towards the future you seek. See the bigger picture, the Future Megatrends, and align your growth trajectory with purpose and innovation.

That’s the real skill of the most innovative companies, typically emerging from the margins to the mainstream. Their ideas, business models and leaders are inspirations to all of us. I call them the Trailblazers.

In the last quarter of 2023, BYD became the world’s top selling electric vehicles company, outperforming the hype of Tesla and its most recent launch, the Cybertruck.

“Build Your Dreams” was founded in 1995 by Wang Chuanfu,  a Chinese chemist, who has became a billionaire entrepreneur. After more than 27 years of high-speed growth, BYD has established over 30 industrial parks across 6 continents and played a significant role in industries related to electronics, auto, renewable energy and rail transit. Like Tesla, it does not define itself as an auto company, but an energy business. With a focus on energy acquisition, storage, and application, it offers comprehensive new energy solutions with zero-emission.

BYD is one of my 250 Innovative Companies to learn from, alongside 100 Inspiring Leaders.

Here are some of the most innovative businesses who are likely to deliver rapid progress in 2024, some of them established market leaders rapidly reinventing themselves, while others are start-ups and growing disruptors. All of them are distinguished in some way by their innovative business models, which are engaging audiences and reenergising markets in their own ways:

• Authentic Brands, (ABG) is a brand development and licensing company headquartered in New York City. The company was founded by Jamie Salter, a seasoned entrepreneur and brand strategist. Salter has a background in acquiring, managing, and licensing consumer brands – from Mohammad Ali to Elvis, Reebok to Ted Baker.
• Crispr Therapeutics is a Swiss–American biotechnology company headquartered in Zug, founded by Nobel Prize winner Emannuelle Charpentier. It was one of the first companies formed to utilize the CRISPR gene editing platform to develop medicines for the treatment of various rare and common diseases.
• Holcim is a multinational building materials company that specialises in the production and distribution of cement, aggregates, and ready-mix concrete. The company was originally founded in Switzerland in 1912 and has since grown to become one of the largest cement producers in the world, and a leader in green cement and urban regeneration.
• Lanzatech is turning carbon crisis into feedstock opportunity with the potential to displace 30% of crude oil use today and reduce global CO2 emissions by 10%. Its carbon recycling technology is like retrofitting a brewery onto an emission source like a steel mill, but instead of using sugars and yeast to make beer, pollution is converted by bacteria to fuels and chemicals.
• Lilium, is a disruptive aviation start-up based in Munich, founded in 2015, dedicated to develop and build the world’s first fully electric vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) jet. An estimated range of up to 300 km and a top speed of 300 km/h, along with zero emissions make it the most efficient and eco-friendly individual means of transportation of our time.
• MercadoLibre, the Amazon of Argentina, seeks to democratize commerce and financial services to transform the lives of millions of people in Latin America. One of the principles of the Mercado Libre culture is “in continuous beta”; permanently focused on innovating to bring the best experience to our users, and to extend our competitive advantages.
• Northvolt was founded to enable the transition to a decarbonised future by establishing a sustainable battery industry. To do this, the Swedish company is pioneering a new approach to battery manufacturing rooted in a commitment to fossil-free energy, sustainable sourcing of raw materials and recycling.
• Nubank from Brazil is the largest independent “neobank” in the world, with more than 40 million customers. Its first product, launched in 2014, was a no-fee credit card fully managed by a mobile app. Recently, Nubank was ranked as the most innovative company in Latin America.
• PingAn, the world’s largest insurance company, provides products and services through its five ecosystems in financial services, healthcare, auto services, real estate services and smart city solutions. With JEssica Tan as its co-CEO it is a model for how to create the future while also delivering today, unbounded by sector boundaries or old thinking.
• Rains, concept meets function in Nordic outerwear from Aarhus. Its collections blend a conceptual-meets-functional design approach, a strong urban inspiration, and a signature fabric identity. A coated waterproof fabric palette inspired by Rains’ first design – a contemporary reinterpretation of the classic rubber raincoat.
• Roblox is a digital platform where people come together virtually to share experiences – gaming, music, and much more. Every day, tens of millions of people from around the world come to Roblox to play, learn, work, and socialize in immersive digital experiences all built by a global community of creators.
• Schneider Electric purpose is “to empower all to make the most of our energy and resources, bridging progress and sustainability for all”. They call this “Life Is On”. The French company’s mission is to be your digital partner for sustainability and efficiency.
• SSAB, zero carbon steel from Sweden, stronger, lighter and more sustainable. Working with partners, SSAB has developed fossil-free steel and plans to create a carbon-zero value chain from the mine to the end customer. it will largely eliminate carbon dioxide emissions from operations in around 2030.
• Twelve the carbon transformation company, is a new kind of chemical company built for a world battling against climate change. Its breakthrough technology eliminates emissions by turning CO2 into essential products that today are made from fossil fuels. They call it carbon transformation.
• Vuori makes premium performance apparel inspired by the active Coastal California lifestyle; an integration of fitness, surf, sport, and art. Breaking down the boundaries of traditional activewear, we are a new perspective on performance apparel. Founded by Joe Kudla in 2013, it is based in San Diego.

These companies don’t process by hard work, alone. But by thinking differently. Dreaming and daring to challenge conventions and explore new futures. It requires new mindsets, new skills, and new organisations. Out this future mind emerges new opportunities, new market spaces, and innovative growth.

It requires a business brain, ready and willing to embrace new ideas and action.

Imagine that you are in Stade de France, Paris, on the 1st August 2024. You’re an Olympic athlete in the midst of competition. As you prepare for the greatest race of your life, you imagine the moments ahead, anticipate what might happen, consider alternative strategies. And maybe just dare to dream.

In reality, you need to be ready for anything. It’s no use overthinking. You are in the best condition of your life, and you have run many races before. In reality you are simply consumed by the moment, at one with your body, focused on the race.

When you are at your “peak”, your body and mind flow in unison, you know what to do.

Finding your future flow

Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi believes that peak performance comes from inside, and that people have the unique ability to create environments that facilitate the development of a state of mind which he calls “flow”, or what some might call “in the zone”.

Flow is the experience I get when I’m working intensely on a project, the challenge is significant, the team around me are great people, the timeframes are tight, and the ambition is very high. Once I am into the project, I find I can work at great pace, there is a stream of consciousness, ideas emerge rapidly.

Under the stress and stretch of high octane situations, we can often do our best work.  Csikszentmihalyi  says “the best moments usually occur when a person’s body or mind is stretched to its limits in a voluntary effort to accomplish something difficult and worthwhile. Optimal experience is thus something we make happen”

It is a feeling of immersion, focus and concentration, removed from the repetition and distractions of everyday, you feel like you have more purpose, with heightened awareness of the situation and possibilities. Complexity seems less intimidating, and uncertainty less daunting. You are energised, you are empowered, you can achieve so much more.

Flow is achieved through an intensity of concentration and effort as you apply yourself to the task. You are energised by possibility, and released from the fear of failure. You rise above yourself, above the distractions of today. The experience of this flow is as good as the outcomes.

5 ways for business leaders to find their “flow” state every day are:

• Select tasks that are stimulating and engaging, they challenge you to the point of excitement. They are problems you would love to solve.
• Assemble a great team, people you love and trust, who you know that together you can do great things (or you, on occasions, you can also do this alone).
• Define audacious goals, that go beyond the accepted norms, 10x not 10% targets, and also a sense of what the rewards could be, personal or organisational.
• Focus your mind, a stream of consciousness towards the goal, eliminating the daily trivia, the distractions of the normal workspace
• Immerse yourself in the moment, active not passive, thinking ideas, doing tasks, making progress, building momentum, going for the goal.

The “flow” state of mind becomes the everyday state of business leaders. It becomes normal. Every day, working towards the future, whilst also delivering today. Your mind working overtime, connecting ideas, searching for progress, focused on the actions which will create a better tomorrow. Indeed, you can only ever do things today, even it is focused on a better future.

Playing to your strengths

 We have grown used to exploring the “strengths and weaknesses” of human character, or in this case of leadership behaviour. The problem is that this kind of diagnostic encourages us to focus on our weaknesses, to make them better, to be “good enough” at everything.

An alternative is focus on your strengths and how to make them better.

Yet few business leaders say they get to use their strengths in most of their work. The challenge in any team is to bring a diverse group of people together, where their combined strengths are irresistible. This means that as long as all the important attributes are covered, then the team will be strong in all areas, and amplify its impact far beyond that of  any individual.

Psychologist Martin Seligman studied cultures around the world to understand what they regarded as “strengths” in leaders. The research explored major religions and philosophical traditions and found that the same six virtues were shared in almost all cultures. Gallup’s StrengthFinder assessment model is one of the most useful tool for exploring the practical component of these virtues as 24 character strengths:

• Virtue of Wisdom: the more curious and creative we become, the more we gain perspective, knowledge and wisdom. Component strengths are creativity, curiosity, open-mindedness, love of learning, and perspective.
• Virtue of Courage: the braver and more persistent we become, the more confident we feel, and more courageous we act. Component strengths are bravery, perseverance, honesty and vitality.
• Virtue of Humanity: the more we approach people with respect, appreciation, and interest, the more engaged they become. Component strengths are love, kindness and social intelligence.
• Virtue of Justice: the more responsible we are, embracing fairness and justice, the more stable community we can build for mutual benefit. Component strengths are teamwork, fairness and leadership.
• Virtue of Temperance: being forgiving, humble, prudent, and in control of our behaviours, helps us to avoid being arrogant, selfish, and unbalanced. Component strengths are forgiveness, humility, prudence and self-control.
• Virtue of Transcendence: never losing hope in humanity’s potential, appreciating nature and people, enables us to connect with a higher purpose. Component strengths are appreciation of beauty, gratitude, hope, humour and spirituality.

Additional studies have shown that women typically score higher in interpersonal strengths, such as love and kindness, honesty and gratitude. Men tend to score higher on cognitive strengths, creativity and curiosity, hope and humour, but also highly on honesty. Whilst these differences are interesting, and largely conform to stereotypes suggesting that they might be shaped by culture, there are also many shared strengths.

Playing to your strengths not only enables you to perform better, and contribute more to a team, it can also result in feeling more engaged and confident, and enable you to progress faster.

The leader’s plastic brain

We used to assume that we each have our established ways of thinking and behaving, and as we get older the capability of our brain to learn and adapt declines.  Yet our brain can grow new neurons at any age. Each neuron can transmit up to 1,000 nerve signals a second and make as many as 10,000 connections with other neurons. Our thoughts come from the chemical signals that pass across the synaptic gaps between neurons: the more connections we make, the more powerful and adaptive our brain can be.

Tara Swart is a neuroscientist, practising medical doctor, and executive coach, with a background in psychiatry. I first met her on stage in Bratislava, where we both were delivering our “Big Idea” for Europe. Her first book, “Neuroscience for Leadership” was more of an academic text, while her new book is “The Source” is more populist, and claims most of the things we want from life – health, happiness, wealth, love – are governed by our ability to think, feel and act. In other words, by our brain.

Keeping the brain fit through exercise, continual learning and rich experiences, enhances your mental agility. In the past leaders relied more upon experience and procedure, in today’s world we need leaders who can make sense of new patterns, imagine new possibilities, thrive on diversity of thought and complexity of action. Leaders need to have a mind that is always ahead, seeing and anticipating what next.

“Think of the brain as the hardware of a computer” says Swart. “Your mind is the software. You’re the coder who upgrades the software to transform the data (your thoughts). You also control the power supply that fuels the computer — the food and drink you consume, when and how to exercise and meditate, who to interact with… You have the power to maintain or destroy your neural connections.”

Mindful activities such as yoga or meditation reduce levels of cortisol and increase the fold of the outer cortex of the brain, allowing the pre-frontal cortex to better regulate our emotional responses. Swart says just 12 minutes a day, most days of the week, will make a noticeable difference. New experiences such as travel, learning a skill, such as a foreign language, and meeting new people can stimulate the growth of new neurons.

There are some obvious ways to improve your brain function, such as drink more water, get more exercise, and don’t read from electronic screens in the last hour before bed. Sleeping less than seven to eight hours a night isn’t sustainable for most people, because that’s how long it takes to clear out toxins. Sleeping on your left side helps the brain to flush out toxins more efficiently, and downing a spoonful of coconut oil before a big meeting boosts brain power for about 20 minutes.

 

The journey ahead will have high and lows. Endurance demands physical fitness and emotional agility, but also taking moments to pause, and celebrate progress.

James Dyson took 15 years and 5127 attempts to perfect his bagless vacuum. When he succeeded, he created a revolution, but it required incredible persistence to get there. Not only is the future difficult to create, but everything keeps changing on the journey towards it.

The mental toughness, the grit to persist, is not just about keeping going, but the resilience to overcome challenges and obstacles. Sometimes, just the sheer volume of information – emails, analysis, reports, ideas, articles, books, meetings – will become overbearing. As a leader it’s easy to feel overloaded.

It’s also easy to feel you need to know everything, which you don’t, although you do need to prioritise what matters most. The biggest challenge for any visionary leader is not how to make ideas happen, but how to overcome all the people who say that they won’t. Critics and pessimists can be frustrating, and a motivational drain.

There will also be moments of great success, people might even call you a hero. It will feel good, even to the humblest, and you will inevitably remind everyone that it was a team effort. Yet the euphoria can quickly disappear, with the next challenge.

Leaders need endurance, resilience, and gratitude, to cope with relentless change; to be able to change your own mind, to stay on the rollercoaster of progress, to keep teams engaged, and to thrive at both work and in your life.

The endurance of leaders

Endurance is as much about mind as muscle power.

Like an athlete – runner, cyclist, rower – there are many physiological elements at play, from core body temperature to oxygen intake, plus psychological factors, such as perceived effort and pain tolerance. Each of these factors is significant in the level of athletic performance humans which any person is capable of, especially when testing the perceived limits of performance, such as setting new world records.

Almost every athlete will attest to faster recovery if they jump into an ice bath after a competition. Yet studies show that this practice doesn’t actually decrease inflammation levels, the thing the baths are intended to reduce. However most physiologists will still say that if there’s a method that helps you recover, even if it’s purely psychological, then it is useful because sometimes belief is just as influential as science.

In “Endure” Alex Hutchinson starts by retelling the race to break 4 minutes for one mile. For years, men across the globe had raced to within a second or two of the barrier, but never quite breaking the iconic time. When Britain’s Roger Bannister finally ran 3.59.4 in 1954, Australian John Landy who had been trying to run the time for years, went on to improve  Banister’s time by another second, only weeks later.

A number of important factors can help people, including business leaders, to endure more:

• We always have a little more to give. Watch how athletes pace themselves so that they always have one final effort at the end of a long distance event. And somehow an Olympic champion, despite a punishing race, can always rise to celebrate victory
• We can endure more than we think. Athletes have a higher than normal pain tolerance enabling them to push harder. They learn to cope with this by training at a “threshold” pace, learning to sustain oxygen debt, despite its searing pain.
• Fitness enables us to perform better. Athletic performance greatly relies on oxygen intake, which is enhanced through heightened fitness. Business leaders also need oxygen, and the physical fitness to sustain leadership performance.
• Fatigue reduces our performance.Having a tired brain can affect how much we can endure physically. A tired brain is one that doesn’t have a break, isn’t refuelled, doesn’t have variety, doesn’t keep learning, doesn’t get enough sleep.
• Stress stops us performing. Of the many factors, stress can be the killer. However stress comes in two forms – stress from outside, eg timescales, and stress we put on ourselves. External stress can stimulate us, internal stress we can control.

Hutchinson’s research led him to South Africa to work with Tim Noakes, the controversial sports scientist who first proposed the “central governor theory,” which argues that the brain limits performance well before the body has reached its maximum output. He also explores the research of another pioneering scientist, Samuele Marcora, who has developed a series of brain-training exercises to push that governor.

He also recalls talking to Eliud Kipchoge just before he ran the world’s first sub-2 hour marathon, when the Kenyan said he hadn’t really changed anything in his training. What then, he asked, would make the difference? “My mind will be different” replied the runner.  People he says, have a curiously elastic limit to what they can achieve, driven mainly be their mental toughness.

The resilience of leaders

Resilience is our ability to bounce back from adversity. It’s what allows us to recover quickly from change or setbacks, trauma or failure, whether at work or in life. It is the ability to maintain a sense if purpose, a positive attitude,  a belief in better, throughout times of challenge. Resilience sustains progress, whilst others might give up.

Angela Duckworth calls it grit. “Grit is passion and perseverance for long-term goals” she says. She compares it not to a marathon, but to a series of sprints combined with a boxing match. In business you are not just running but also getting hit along the way. As you seek to deliver on your strategy, to make new ideas happen, to transform the business, it’s not just about coping with the time and effort. It’s also about overcoming many challenges.

Grit keeps you moving forward through the sting of rejection, pain of failure, and struggle with adversity. “When things knock you down, you may want to stay down and give up, but grit won’t let you quit” says Duckworth.

Most entrepreneurs have tremendous resilience, because they’ve had to fight for the business through some of the most difficult times. The search for seed funding when every VC dismissed them with a laugh or smile, the long days in a bedroom or garage trying to make the first prototype or win the first contract, the growing pains of scale-up as they have to adapt to survive and thrive. Letting go of control as investors take over, making you wealthy but taking away your baby. Most entrepreneurs know about grit.

But then so do corporate leaders. If not from starting up, then from surviving the challenges of internal politics, of learning how to engage and influence people in a positive way, of progressing as a star individual whilst keeping colleagues and teams on side. Of balancing personal ambition with collective progress. Resilience demands that we:

• Have ambition:Knowing what you truly want, and are prepared to work hard and persevere in order to achieve it. Vision isn’t just a milestone, it becomes a pursuit. Whilst not everybody will know  your ambition, you will, and it will keep you striving.
• Have purpose: This is why you want to achieve more, it’s about what will be better when you achieve your ambition, not just for you, but your business, your family, your world. Purpose is how you contribute, what you fight for, why you get up in the morning.
• Have passion: You need to love it, to be great at it. Otherwise it’s not worth the sacrifices, the long hours, and the pain. Aligning your purpose and ambition allows you to find love, for your work, your team, your business, and the world you seek to impact.
• Have persistence: You will sometimes fail. Few things change without challenges. Failure doesn’t define you, it refines you. If you didn’t fail, you wouldn’t learn. There is always another way. Stay confident and stay strong.

Nelson Mandela was a great example of resilience. He was sent to prison as a young firebrand who believed in taking up violent resistance when the justice system failed him in apartheid South Africa. 27 years later, he walked out of Robben Island prison advocating peace and reconciliation. During his long confinement, Mandela mastered what he later called self-leadership. He took great inspiration in the poem “Invictus,” written by William Ernest Henley, which ends with the lines “I am the master of my fate. I am the captain of my soul.”

• Future Makers: accelerated leadership development, issue-driven, action-driving
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Happy new year!

2023 was a year of many turning points. Polycrisis, maybe. Uncertainty, certainly. A nexus of change.

The year started a few weeks early for me. I was in the film studio in late December, recording a series of new videos for business leaders. Actually it was a full-on brain download of short (120 x 10 minute) clips about changing markets, the new challenges for business, a new breed of disruptors, and new inspirations for business leaders.

One mega-program is called WaveRiders, on strategic rethinking and building your future-ready business. The other, Better World, is about sustainable innovation. They’re also available as inspiring keynotes and practical workshops.

And then everything changed.

In a filming break, I glanced at the news headlines. OpenAI, a previously low-key think tank driven by Elon Musk and now by Sam Altman, had launched ChatGPT. Within weeks, every business headline was about Generative AI. Within two months, it had 100 million weekly users (Instagram took 2 years). It really was a gamechanger. As the year progressed, AI developed exponentially.

For many people in business, 2023 has felt like a perfect storm—battling inflation, the impact of global conflicts, supply chain breakdowns, and how to get to grips and embrace the new tech.

Every leader I met said that not just change, but accelerated transformation, was top of their agenda. Dynamic markets. Relentless change. Certain uncertainty. Crisis meets opportunity, and innovation is the only way forwards. In a survey by PwC, 39% of CEOs said they do not think that their companies will be economically viable within a decade if they continue on their current path.

Seize control of your destiny, shape the future you envision, now.

January 2023 : Circular innovation in Istanbul

I started the year in Istanbul, Turkey, in the snow. I was back working with the board and executive team of Aster Group, an innovative textiles and fashion business, reviewing the strategy we developed 5 years ago, and rethinking the future, again. This time with a greater focus on premium brands, intelligent fabrics, sustainable processes, and profitable growth in fashion and beyond.

Sustainability is now a given (fashion drives 5% of carbon emissions, consumes 98 million tonnes of non-renewable resources every year, and uses 93 billion cubic metres of water annually). We explored everything from Bolt Thread’s mushroom-based fabrics to regenerative subscription models, new global suppliers and consumer personalisation. The Kocali family (Ali and Ismael, below) remain ambitious and intrepid. Family businesses have much more agility to innovate and grow in new ways.

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang ranked as the world’s best CEO, in the Brand Guardian Index 2023, taking into account business reputation and sustainability, alongside growth and value creation. Netflix “No Rules, Rules” CEO, Reed Hastings, having grown and transformed the business from DVDs by mail to streaming content, seemed to run out of steam, and stepped down. A milestone for female leaders was achieved, with 10% of Fortune 500 leaders now women. Maybe, the future is female.

Innovations continued at pace. Liquid Death stood out as one of the most distinctive brand launches,  a punk rock attitude, to promoting fresh, bottled water from the Austrian Alps. In Spain, the Kings League, broke the rules of soccer, with a crazy 7-a-side league concept developed by former Barcelona star Gerard Piqué. In Sweden, a revolution in sustainable battery technology is being led by Northvolt, and in Switzerland a subscription to On running shoes enables you to get a new (regenerated) pair of Cloudneos as often as you want.

February 2023 : Pioneering the future of Airbus

It was even colder in Malmo, Sweden. “Friends of Executive” is a fabulous CEO network created by Jimmy Olden a decade ago. All the top Swedish business leaders want to be part of the FoE community, learning from and collaborating with each other to think smarter and innovate faster. I was their provocateur – exploring how to “Recode your Business“. There is no shortage of inspiration nearby, my ranking of Swedish Innovators included ABB to Doconomy, Essity to Klarna, Oatly to Polestar.

Flying south to Toulouse, France, I was impressed by the Airbus 320 Neo. I was working with the corporate strategy team at Airbus. Bringing together all of their strategic thinkers, we explored what it meant to be “Pioneers and Transformers” in today’s world, and in a large organisation with intimidatingly huge challenges to decarbonise. Airbus, now the market leader, wants to lead the aviation world to green hydrogen by 2035. To do that, it might just have to become the world’s largest hydrogen company too.

Onwards to Washington DC. I love how the Europe to USA time difference makes it easy to get up before sunrise, for a fabulous 10km run around the National Mall (photo above), in particular to watch the sun rising over the Capitol towards the Lincoln Monument. Alone with Abraham Lincoln at 5am, bathed in golden spring light. Wow!

Innovations continued at pace. Patagonia, maker of those wonderful fleeces, realised it had a problem in micro-plastics, and collaborated with Samsung to eliminate them, 35% of the world’s plastic waste. Sustainable innovation comes in many forms, including the Allbirds MO.ONSHOT, the world’s first zero-carbon shoe. Meanwhile, Temu, the online discount store owned by the e-commerce giant Pinduoduo, is rapidly disrupting fashion retail, and now more popular than Shein, just 4 months after launchin

March 2023 : Arabic Pearl Divers and French Viagra

“Germany” used to mean industrial excellence, technology, reliability and quality of life.

Whilst German industry is still packed full of industrial giants – BASF to Bayer, BMW to Bosch – Germany is now also becoming a nation of entrepreneurs, harnessing the academic excellence and commercial infrastructures to create a new generation of business.

However the bigger, legacy companies, who used to be admired around the world, are struggling to embrace the new zeitgeist.

The problem with success.

Germany has been so successful in industrial engineering and production, that is has perversely been slow to look beyond product and process for new types of innovation. The academic discipline and rigorous application of proven methodologies has created a stubbornness, and stifled the free-thinking (more imaginative, more intuitive, more irreverent thinking) that is so common to many of the world’s innovation hotspots.

Having lived for a short time in southern Germany (I studied high temperature superconductivity physics at the Albert Ludwig Universitat in Freiburg im Breisgau), I became acutely aware of this “engineer” mindset. Whilst I hate stereotypes, there is something in the German psyche, that seeks logic and precision, detail and structure. It doesn’t like ambiguity, or too much change.

Having spent the last 30 years working across the world with many different companies, including German brands (such as Adidas and Allianz, Bayer and Bosch, Henkel and Lufthansa, T-Mobile and Volkswagen), I notice a difference to other countries in both West and East. Most German business people seek academic doctorates for example, becoming technical experts rather than evolving as business leaders, and continuous professional development is rare. Most German businesses are family owned, with strong influence from owners and also from unions. Most businesses are incredibly product-centric, with a services and service culture slow to take hold.

Of course German businesses have been incredibly successful – they have been the engine of European growth for the last 50 years. But their innovation has largely been incremental – making existing business, products and processes, better.

Prof Khairy Tourk, of the Stuart School of Business in Chicago, says that Germany’s strong position in fields such as automotive engineering, chemicals and factory machines has given the country a “resilience” in the face of economic adversity that made it stand out compared with other countries such as the USA and United Kingdom.

“Germany has performed brilliantly when it comes to adding new ideas to products and processes in the kinds of sectors in which it has traditionally excelled,” says Marco Annuziata, GE’s chief economist. “If you look at a BMW car you will find it packed full of the kind of incremental innovation that the Germans are good at and which gives the country a reasonable amount of self-confidence for the future” adds Tourk.

Therefore this is certainly not a criticism. But it does provoke a question, about how this approach to innovation will be sufficient in a world of more dramatic changes.

Like any successful business, it is hard to let go of the model that made you successful, and tempting to keep squeezing more out of what has worked before. However the success models of the past are unlikely to create future success.

What’s the challenge for German business?

Do German businesses have the imagination to adapt to a changing world?

Where factories are displaced by 3D printers, where robots and AI can replicate the know-how of a highly skilled worker, and where emerging markets can replicate the quality of production at much lower costs … can German leaders develop new ideas, alternative strategies and business models, innovative products and services, to compete in this new world?

The answer has to be yes … And the more enlightened German business leaders are waking up to the new challenges, and to the new challengers.

In fact, walk around the streets of Berlin, for example, and you will see a start-up culture every bit as vibrant as Silicon Valley, Stockholm or Shanghai. The youth culture, the irreverence and collaboration, of “hippy” Berlin is actually driving a new mindset in business. Gone are the suits who only see process diagrams and quality assurance, in come the punks (ok, millennials, hipsters, creatives) who have passion and vision to disrupt the status quo.

Large organisations are desperate to innovate differently too. A few companies like Siemens have truly seized the innovation challenge, but still have to work against an engrained culture of inertness. Smaller companies like Biontech who championed the mRNA vaccine development during the pandemic are a new generation, as are startups like Lilium, the flying taxi business.

Whilst some business leaders struggle to grasp the new world, others are embracing it rapidly. Design thinking, for example has become one of the most sought-after business disciplines, because its more intuitive approach is so needed. Similarly Business Model Innovation, has given the technocrats a new context for their structural thinking.

Germany’s future business vision

A new report by FTI with Handelsblatt and Pulse says “Today, Germany stands at a crossroads: it can either maintain its current course, and risk a gradual economic and societal decline, or it can choose to reinvigorate its legacy of innovation by investing in digitalization, modernization, education, and new technologies. The path of innovation is not merely a choice; Germany must assert its leadership in the 21st century. The world is being reordered, and as geopolitical tensions rise and new alliances form, a stable public and private sector leader is needed.”

And offers hope, with “The Mittelstand—the core of Germany’s economy —will play a vital role in this transformation. Together with universities, innovation hubs, government agencies, and Germany’s largest companies, the more than 1,300 “hidden champions” are poised to become global leaders in a wide range of fields. Our analysis reveals that Germany’s opportunity to lead once again is not just possible but necessary for the future prosperity of Europe and the global economy. This leadership will require a significant shift in mindset and strategy, moving away from traditional comforts towards a future-oriented, risk-embracing approach.”

In simple terms there are too scenarios for Germany over the next 10 years – somewhat akin to the fixed or growth mindset – to embrace the opportunities of a changing world, or to stagnate and decline as it seeks to retain the status quo:

A new vision for German business in 2035 emerges … “if leaders take focused, decisive action today to embrace opportunities and fully leverage the country’s strengths, Germany will continue to be a global leader in innovation” … and is built on five pillars:

• Germany as a dynamic economy fuelled by technological innovation and sectoral diversity … The strategic application of AI across sectors streamlines operations and dramatically speeds up research and development, futureproofing Germany’s economic leadership and diversity.
• Germany as the architect of advanced manufacturing … Germany’s manufacturing landscape is powered by the strategic implementation of automation. The nation excels in designing new materials at scale by leveraging synthetic biology, and additive manufacturing enables rapid, cost-effective production, minimizing reliance on imports and maximizing manufacturing flexibility.
• Germany as leader in ecological integrity and renewable innovations … Germany is on the forefront of climate innovation. Investments in renewable energy research, collaboration with leading scientific institutions, and supportive policies encourage the adoption of ecofriendly practices across all sectors. This holistic approach enables Germany to drive international standards in sustainability and climate resilience.
• Germany as global epicenter of innovation … Corporate governance incentivizes performance, risk-taking, and trial-and-error processes, fostering a culture of continuous improvement. Collaboration happens within companies, across departments, and externally with other private, public, and academic stakeholders in the numerous innovation clusters. The elaborate startup ecosystem makes Germany a desirable hub for global talent.
• Germany as an inclusive and unified society … Germany’s strategic focus on education and health care has fostered an inclusive society. AI-enhanced learning supports a diverse student population, and educational reforms promote social cohesion. The integration of migrants and the provision of new technologies reflect a commitment to building a unified society that values diversity, inclusion, and the well-being of all its members.

However this demands significant change, in mindsets and practical action:

Inspired by German innovators

As inspiration to think positive, explore how Germany can leverage its uncompromising engineering mindset, for a rapidly evolving digital world, here are some of Germany’s most disruptive innovators.What can you learn from these companies, which you could apply your own business?

Biontech … mRNA vaccines from covid to cancer 

As Covid-19 raged across the world, Turkish-born Uğur Şahin and his wife Özlem Türeci, transitioned their development of mRNA-based cancer therapies to create an innovative vaccine. Building an ecosystem of experts and partners around their Mainz lab, they were able to achieve in 9 months what had previously take decades. They now believe their approach could transform the future of medicine.

Blinkist … information in a blink

Sebastian Klein and his friends found it hard to continue learning after leaving university. In 2012, they launched Blinkist, an app that summarises non-fiction books in 15 minute “blinks” that can be consumed in audio or video formats.  More than 1,500 books in 16 categories are available for the platform’s one million users, from corporate culture to parenting.

Delivery Hero … from restaurant to home

Delivery Hero seeks to be the world’s leading online food ordering platform. Niclas Östberg and colleagues started the business in Berlin in 2011, and the company operates in 53 countries internationally in Europe, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East and partners with 300,000 restaurants. Users can find local restaurants, filter by cuisine, browse menus, read reviews and other information like the restaurant operating times and order takeaway food online. In the UK it uses the brand name Hungry House.

ElektroCouture … the next thing in smart fashion

Lisa Lang, a former engineer, couldn’t find clothes to “express her nerdiness”, she says. In 2014, she founded and fully financed her own fashion technology house, focusing on light wearables. ElektroCouture sells LED jewellery and clothes that glow in the dark – including a jacket that changes colour based on texts it receives. Lang has produced clothing for Lufthansa, IBM and Intel and sells her collection on ASOS and Amazon.

Hello Fresh … great recipes, great cooking, great food

HelloFresh offers meal-kits including ingredients sourced from local suppliers and step-by-step recipes created on a weekly basis by their in-house culinary teams. The company delivers over 7.4 million meals a month to over 800,000 regular subscribers across the world. All countries offer omnivore (Classic Box) and vegetarian (Veggie Box) box options. Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver creates recipes for HelloFresh, whilst a partnership with Vorwerk and their multi-function kitchen appliance Thermomix was launched in Germany and Austria. HelloFresh delivers custom recipes made for cooking with a Thermomix machine.

Lilium … flying taxis from Munich

Lilium is a disruptive aviation start-up based in Munich, founded in 2015. It is currently delivering on its vision of a completely new type of individual transportation and is dedicated to develop and build the world’s first fully electric vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) jet. An estimated range of up to 300 km and a top speed of 300 km/h, along with zero emissions make it the most efficient and eco-friendly individual means of transportation of our time.

N26 … the bank that wants to be different

Berlin-based startup Number26 (or now simply, N26) is trying to reinvent the bank. This might sound crazy, and that’s why the startup has processed step by step. After partnering with Wirecard for the banking back end, attracting 200,000 users  the company now has a full license to operate in Europe. “At N26, we obsess every day about great product design and blazing-fast technology. Our goal is always to make banking easy, intuitive, fast, and maybe even a little fun for you along the way.”

Siemens … the exploit and explore mindset

Siemens, the German technology business, seeks to combine the real and the digital worlds to meet the great challenges of our time. It’s diverse portfolio of industrial businesses enjoy the entrepreneurial freedom to serve their customers and markets in the best way possible, the structure is geared toward creating value for customers, creating technology with purpose and thus changing the lives for better.

Zalando … bringing happiness to Europe

Zalando is a European online retailer based in Berlin. The company’s cross-platform online store that sells shoes, clothing and other fashion items. The company was founded in Germany in 2008, and since has begun operating in fourteen European countries and worldwide with spin-offs and subsidiary companies. Zalando was created in 2008 by Rocket Internet (the start-up incubator behind many of Germany’s entrepreneurial brands), Robert Gentz and David Schneider, initially under the name Ifansho. Inspired by US online retailer Zappos, Zalando initially specialised in the sale of footwear before diversifying.

It’s time for you to change the game!

• Learn more about the Gamechangers book, and download a free extract in German
• Read my article exploring more of Germany’s favourite brands
• Read my article exploring banking innovation in Berlin
• Read my case study of Biontech CEO Uğur Şahin 
• Read my case study of Lilium’s flying taxis

AI is the biggest thing since the steam engine, and will change our world. AI is hype, AI is real.

In my 33 years in marketing, I’ve seen plenty of change, but also much that endures. The AI hype of 2023, sparked by the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, is akin to the “dotcom” moment in 1999, when the Internet really captured every business leader and marketer’s imagination.

Yes it was transformational, yes it was full of hype, and ultimately yes, it changed the future of every market and organisation. But at the same time, you still needed lots of conventional logic too. Who’s the customer, the proposition, the business model, and much more? And you still needed investors, employees, and society to be in support.

• What every executive needs to know about AI by Bain
• The CEO’s Guide to the Generative AI Revolution by BCG
• The state of AI, generative AI’s breakout year  by McKinsey

Of course, AI is just part of the technosphere which is likely to enable more change in the next 10 years, than the last 250 years. Its intelligence will drive to converge and accelerate other tech adaption – from blockchain and robotics, to genomics and quantum computing.

But ultimately, it’s not about the tech, it’s how you use the tech.

• AI Trends for Marketers 2023 by HubSpot
• The Impact of AI on Marketing by Ogilvy
• State of Marketing AI Report 2023 by MAII

Real world, right now

So how do I see organisations changing right now? I have the fortunate to work with some of the world’s leading companies – across geographies and sectors. Here are some of the real projects that I have worked on recently:

• Microsoft’s shift to AI, alongside Cloud, as their predominant proposition to corporate clients. This means their sales and marketing people take a much more bespoke, consultative approach to selling, rather than product focused as previously with selling standardised versions of software.
• Carrefour using AI to engage consumers through digital marketing and personalised shopping, using predictive analytics for recommendations, and chatbots for digital customer support. Instore, using AI for dynamic pricing, offers to mobile devices. As well as broad use of AI in supply chain and inventory management.
• Holcim  using AI to enhance client solutions with a broader range of remote diagnostic tools – digital twins to simulate physical building, energy efficiency diagnostics, predictive maintenance. Such services offer new revenue streams and ongoing relationships with construction clients, and building owners.
• Inditex’s use of AI for intelligent consumer behaviour analytics, from segmentation to range selection, store locations to online and instore merchandising, pricing and inventory management. It also uses AI in communication to personalise messaging, social media engagement, graphical imagery, and chatbots.

Any strategic decision, marketing or business generally, would take into account technology drivers. AI has become a significant component within the understanding of business drivers. So to understand AI alone, and marketing specifically, is not always obvious.

In general the majority of marketing-related AI is currently being used in

• Customer analytics, trend prediction, audience segmentation etc
• Inventory management, maintaining stocks, optimising supply etc
• Communication optimisation, personalised offers, social engagement

Increasingly it will start to take a much larger role in

• Dynamic pricing, by individual, by location, by time, by promotion
• Product development, made on demand, personalised colours etc
• Liquid engagement, across media platforms, and distribution channels
• Addressing critical issues, eg climate change, society benefits, and ethics.

AI applications in marketing

Here some of the significant ways I see AI shaping marketing right now:

• Content Creation:
  • Generative AI tools like Jasper for text generation and Midjourney for image creation support content creation. They produce text, craft images, and even generate music or code based on input and requirements.
  • For instance, if you’re working on a campaign, AI can generate custom content, saving time and effort1.
• Data Analytics:
  • AI tools automate complex data analysis and transform insights into easy-to-understand reports and compelling visualizations.
  • Previously, creating quarterly reports was a marathon task. Now, AI sifts through data, spots trends, and presents it in sleek formats, streamlining decision-making1.
• Chatbots Service:
  • AI-powered chatbots provide instant responses, handle routine inquiries, and enhance customer experiences.
  • They can engage users on websites, social media, and messaging apps, improving overall customer satisfaction2.
• Personalisation:
  • AI analyzes user behaviour, preferences, and historical data to deliver personalised recommendations.
  • Netflix, for example, uses AI algorithms to suggest movies and shows based on viewing history2.
• Predictive Analytics:
  • AI predicts customer behavior, helping marketers tailor campaigns and offers.
  • Amazon’s recommendation engine is a prime example, suggesting products based on browsing and purchase history2.
• Dynamic Pricing:
  • AI adjusts prices dynamically based on demand, competitor pricing, and other factors.
  • Airlines and e-commerce platforms use AI to optimize pricing in real time2.
• Email Marketing Optimisation:
  • AI analyzes email open rates, click-through rates, and user engagement.
  • It suggests optimal send times, subject lines, and content variations to improve email campaign performance3.
• Social Media Insights:
  • AI tools analyze social media data to understand sentiment, trends, and audience behavior.
  • Brands can refine their social media strategies based on these insights2.
• Segmentation and Targeting:
  • AI segments audiences based on demographics, behavior, and preferences.
  • Marketers can create hyper-targeted campaigns for specific customer groups2.
• Voice Search Optimization:
  • As voice search grows, AI helps optimize content for voice-based queries.
  • Brands can adapt their SEO strategies to capture voice search traffic2.

 

In November 2022, Generative AI grabbed the global conscience, with a deceptively simple new platform, ChatGPT, from Sam Altman and his team at OpenAI. It reached 100 million weekly users in two months. Instagram took more than two years.

AI, of course, has been around for some time – in 1950 Alan Turing considered how machines could out-think humanity, in 1956 John McCarthy coined the term “artificial intelligence”, in 1997 a chess playing computer Deep Blue beat world champion Garry Kasparov, in 1999 Sony launched the first robo-pet AiBO who developed a personality over time.

Apple’s Siri, an AI-enabled virtual assistant, was added to iPhones in 2011, while IBM’s Watson won quiz show Jeopardy, and Amazon’s Alexa made shopping smarter in 2014. Add Google Maps, Alibaba’s Citybrain, medical diagnostics, weather forecasting and driverless cars. Since releasing ChatGPT via API in March, over 2 million developers are now working on it.

Generative AI goes beyond most of the existing forms of artificial intelligence in order to create new content including text, videos, images, and more. Just as an example, last month I used AI to write a 300 page book in 6 minutes, and also turn it into an animated movie in 3 hours!

• AI is about to completely change how you use computers by Bill Gates
• What every executive needs to know about AI by Bain
• The CEO’s Guide to the Generative AI Revolution by BCG
• The state of AI, generative AI’s breakout year by McKinsey
• OpenAI and Jony Ive seek to create an AI-based device by FT

Progress as been rapid – in terms of technologies, business models, and commercial adoption. OpenAI’s GPT4 arrived in March with a subscription model, while Anthropic launched Claude, by a team of ex OpenAI-ers with a safety first mindset. In the same month Microsoft launched CoPilot, and Google introduced Bard.

Microsoft is becoming one of the most influential players in AI, not just investing $10 billion in Open AI, but also linking with Meta to launch Llama. Perplexity AI is seen as one of the most advanced interfaces. It was launched by another ex OpenAI-er Aravin Srinivas and his team in 2022, and has proved perhaps the most user-friendly so far.

In November 2023, OpenAI imploded. The board dismissing Altman and CEO, and then when almost all 700 employees protested, dismissing itself for Altman to return. The rapid progress towards Artificial General Intelligence, AGI, beyond the so-called singularity, when AI takes on a life of its own, has raised huge alarm bells, how to balance progress with caution.

DeepMind, the AI brain of Google, co-founder Mustafa Suleyman left the company this year to start Inflection AI, a personalised chatbot called PI, and also publish a book The Coming Wave, warning of the rapidly approaching dangers of powerful AI (watch his video below).

Sergei Brin says Google has been an “AI-first company” for at least a decade, but realised it was facing an existential crisis with this year’s rise of new chatbots. The end of the ubiquitous Google search, and its $225 billion ad revenue seemed night, and Brin launched a “code red”. He took personal control, fusing DeepMind and GoogleBrain, to launch Gemini, its AI to beat all others.

And Elon Musk, one of the co-founders of Open AI, who then fell out with Altman and left the organisation, because he felt its commercial race for profits was ignoring its responsibility to humanity, launched xAI and a chatbot called Grok. According to the dictionary, Grok means “to understand profoundly and intuitively”.

So how well do we understand Generative AI? Hyped as, and quite possibly, likely to create the most significant transformation of business in our lifetimes, most business leaders are still watching developments rather bemused, rather than asking how will it transform their futures.

A useful starting point is the Generative AI Bible free to download from CB Insights.

Amazon’s AI

Let’s take Amazon as an example of a company which has been using AI to revolutionise its business for more than 25 years from targeted advertising to Alexa, doorbells and drones, Prime to pharmacy. Most recent is Amazon Rufus, the new generative AI-powered conversational shopping experience. Consider:

• A more conversational Alexa with generative AI: Conversations with Alexa should be as natural as talking to a friend. With a new large language model (LLM) custom-built and optimized for voice interactions, Alexa is more intuitive than ever. The new LLM will also help Alexa understand context, so you can have back and forth conversations without having to repeat yourself, and conversations can flow more smoothly.
• Generative AI improves product listings: Product detail pages are a key source of information for Amazon shoppers. But creating compelling product titles and descriptions can take a lot of sellers’ time and effort. As a result, some detail pages are more comprehensive and useful than others. Generative AI helps sellers provide richer information with less work. It reduces the need to enter multiple pieces of specific product data, combining it into just one step. This saves time for sellers, produces more thorough product listings, and helps customers make more confident purchase decisions.
• Generative AI creates more engaging advertisements: Generative AI helps advertisers make their ads more engaging and visually rich, and delivers a better advertising experience for customers. Using the Amazon Ad Console, advertisers simply select their product and click “Generate.” In just seconds, the tool delivers a series of lifestyle and brand-themed images. For example, a toaster that was previously shown with a white background might now be on a kitchen counter next to some fruit and muffins. Short text prompts then help refine the image, and users can quickly create and test multiple versions to optimize performance.
• Thanks to generative AI, customers can pay with their palm: No wallet? No problem. Amazon used generative AI to develop Amazon One, a fast and convenient contactless identity service that enables customers to use their palm to make payments, verify their ages, or enter locations. To train the AI model, Amazon scientists used generative AI to create millions of synthetically generated images of the palm and the subcutaneous vein structure. Amazon One delivers an accuracy rate of 99.9999%, which exceeds the accuracy of other biometric alternatives—it’s even more accurate than scanning two irises. You can use Amazon One at all of the more than 500 Whole Foods Market stores in the U.S. and at over 100 customer locations across the country, including Crunch Fitness, Hudson stores at airports, and multiple stadiums and entertainment venues.
• Generative AI helped Amazon eliminate checkout lines: How often do you want to grab a snack at a sporting event, but the line is too long? Using a combination of computer vision, object recognition, advanced sensors, deep learning, and generative AI, Amazon’s Just Walk Out technology allows fans to enter a concession stand, grab whatever they want, and quickly get back to their seats—without waiting in a checkout line. Amazon used generative AI to create photorealistic synthetic images and video clips that mimick realistic and sometimes rare shopping scenarios. Those include variations in store format, lighting conditions, and even crowds of shoppers—all information about situations that can be hard to find in real life and difficult to teach a computer. Just Walk Out technology is now available as a service to retailers. So far, the technology has been implemented at over 100 third-party locations at airports, stadiums, universities, convenience stores, theme parks, and other locations.

10 books on AI

Here are some more ways to catch up:

Impromptu: Amplifying Our Humanity Through AI

Reid Hoffman is a LinkedIn cofounder, investor at venture firm Greylock Partners, and former board member of OpenAI. As a former board member of OpenAI, Hoffman has seen up close how the large language models behind generative AI tools like ChatGPT work. His book, available as a free pdf, was written with GPT-4, the newer, more powerful version of ChatGPT.  The book is the first to be written by GPT-4, Hoffman said in a LinkedIn post announcing his work earlier this month.  “With GPT-4, I traveled through light bulb jokes, epic poems, original sci fi plots, arguments about human nature, musings on how AI might strengthen democracy, society and industries,” he wrote. “The goal, like in any good trip, was to learn as much about my traveling partner as the place I was exploring.”

Generative AI for Leaders

Amir Husain is CEO of SparkCognitio. The book covers what Generative AI is, the benefits of Generative AI (including increased productivity and new product development) and the challenges of Generative AI (including bias, security, and regulation). In then gets practical with how to develop a Generative AI strategy to help you stand out in the marketplace, how to build the right team and when to seek outside help, and best practice methods for training employees on Generative AI. It concludes with a deeper look into sequences, word embeddings, and LLMs, the progress and challenges of detecting Generative AI, and the future of Generative AI.

Generative AI: The Future of Everything

Sharad Gandhi and Christian Ehl say that Generative AI is creating one of the most significant transformations in human society. For the first time in history, we have created machines that exhibit intelligence, a quality we only associate with humans, a machine intelligence greater than most humans in many areas. We believe it will transform almost all jobs, professions and industries. Generative AI is a very powerful tool with the potential to enhance the way we live, work, make almost all decisions and develop solutions. Its power also creates significant concerns and risks for our society and humanity.

The Age of AI: And Our Human Future

Henry Kissinger, former US secretary of state, ex Google CEO Eric Schmidt, and MIT researcher Daniel Huttenlocher are an unlikely tech trio, but explore how AI is set to reshape society.  “AI’s promise of epoch-making transformations—in society, economics, politics, and foreign policy—portends effects beyond the scope of any single author’s or field’s traditional focuses,” they say. In the time since the book was published, generative AI has made the discussion of how society will change as machines increasingly perform human tasks all the more relevant.

Companies seek to engage investors in their vision and potential. They spend many hours crafting strategies and presentations that seek to convince stockmarket analysts and investors that their company’s vision, strategies, innovations, brands and creativity will ensure that they deliver a better future, and better return on investment.

Yet most annual reports, financial statements, investor presentations are incredibly boring. They are standardised, number intensive, lack creativity, and certainly lack passion and inspiration. They are largely undifferentiated, despite that being their purpose. And while they have serious messages, and must adhere to financial regulation, this is no excuse to be dull.

Marvel Comics were different.

Back in the 1990s, the content business was a separate company, before being acquired by Disney in 2009. Marvel released their quarterly and annual financial reports to shareholders in the form of comic books.

Marvel experienced great success during the early 1990s, highlighted by the sale of 2.5 million copies of Spider-Man #1. This success paved the way for its IPO in 1991 under the leadership of Ronald Pearlman, raising over $63 million. Being a public company however, means totally different reporting requirements, and Marvel was looking for ways to communicate the Marvel Comics Universe in an engaging way; within a typically dry shareholder report.

Luckily, Gary Fishman reached out with a solution. As a lifelong comic book fan and the founder of an investor and public relations firm on Wall Street, he offered to assist the then Marvel CEO Bill Bevins in preparing Marvels upcoming quarterly report.

Utilizing the Marvel method, which involves developing the story, then the art, and finally the dialogue, Fishman crafted the Plot and made sure to write the copy in such a way that it compiled with all legal and SEC requirements. Herdling on his end, coordinated with some of Marvel’s best artists to bring the visuals to life.

This completely new way of reporting finally took form as a four-page comic book, with the Marvel characters discussing financial aspects like publishing revenues, gross profit, and revenue mix.

The next step was the annual report, and it’s safe to say that Marvel really broke new ground. They crafted a 36-page comic book, combining comics-form information introduced by Uatu the Watcher, updating us on licensing revenues, advertising, and more, along with other traditional financial tables and text.

This innovative approach quickly became a sensation, and was extensively covered by leading publications such as The New York Times, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Institutional Investor. They were recognized not only for their creativeness but also for their artistic and qualitative design, winning awards from organizations like the International Academy of Communications Arts & Sciences.