Earlier this week I noticed #ChatGPT trending on social media.

We’ve become used to tech crazes – a new gadget, a new business, sometimes just a Hyperloop-style video – that zooms into our collective conscience, particularly when AI is  somehow involved.

That evening I investigated a little further.  ChatGPT is a prototype AI-based chatbot of Open AI.

I knew OpenAI largely from interviews with Elon Musk. It seemed like he spent more time there than at Tesla, SpaceX (or even Twitter), the companies which he officially led. It seemed to be the project that really engaged his brain.

Clicking on “Try ChatGPT” led to a rather simple “Ask me any question” prompt.

It reminded my first visit to the Google search engine, 20 or more years go. In fact, Chat GPT is a lot like a Google search. Just a lot more intelligent. And could entirely replace it very soon.

By the way GPT stands for Generative Pre-Trained Transformer.

More technically – GPT3, or the third-generation Generative Pre-trained Transformer – is a neural network machine learning model trained using internet data to generate any type of text. Developed by OpenAI, it requires a small amount of input text to generate large volumes of relevant and sophisticated machine-generated text.

GPT-3’s deep learning neural network is a model with over 175 billion machine learning parameters. To put things into scale, the largest trained language model before GPT3 was Microsoft’s Turing Natural Language Generation (NLG) model, which had 10 billion parameters. As of early 2021, GPT3 is the largest neural network ever produced. As a result, GPT3 is better than any prior model for producing text that is convincing enough to seem like a human could have written it.

I played around a bit. It seemed quite smart. And then decided to ask a proper question.

“ChatGPT, how would Steve Jobs design and market extended reality glasses without using the idea of a metaverse?”

Within seconds, it answered, rather impressively:

“Steve Jobs would likely design extended reality glasses with a focus on simplicity and user experience. The glasses would be sleek and minimalist in design, with a user-friendly interface and intuitive controls. They would offer a wide range of features and applications, from augmented reality and virtual reality to real-time information and communication.

In terms of marketing, Steve Jobs would likely emphasize the glasses’ ability to enhance and enrich daily life, rather than the concept of a metaverse.

He would showcase the glasses’ potential to improve productivity, entertainment, and social connections, as well as their ability to provide new and exciting experiences. He would also focus on the glasses’ sleek design and intuitive interface, highlighting their user-friendliness and accessibility.

Overall, Steve Jobs would approach the marketing of extended reality glasses with a focus on their practical, everyday uses and benefits, rather than on the more abstract concept of a metaverse.”

Within hours, the world was bombarding the GPT interface with all sorts of weird and wonderful questions.

Indeed, if you want to compare it’s speed of penetration, in terms of time it took to reach 1 million users: Netflix 3.5 years, Facebook 10 months, Spotify 5 months, Instagram 2.5 months, ChatGPT 5 days.

Here is the initial reaction from The Verge magazine, and from BBC News.

Since then, Elon Musk has said that ChatGPT could spell the end of homework. Meaning that the AI could trot out a uniquely personalised 5000 word essay on any topic your request within seconds.

OpenAI say that ChatGPT is essentially a prototype, and we shouldn’t depend on it for perfect answers, yet. However its next iteration is coming soon, and the millions of curious playful tests over recent days, is probably part of its development plan.

ChatGPT shows that AI is rapidly coming of age.

While AI’s application are largely-invisibly all around us already – consider the AI which goes into Google Maps for example – its real life-changing impacts, to redefine how we live and work, to solve some of the most difficult challenges, to accelerate progress is just around the corner.

(Try asking it how it will solve the climate crisis, or Ukraine war, or global downturn!).

Open AI is a not-for-profit business founded in 2015 by Sam Altman, together with Musk and others. It also has a for-profit subsidiary, which will seek to commercialise new ideas. In 2019 this received a $1 billion investment from Microsoft, and is now poised to invest significantly more.

More about Open AI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyOnug-3OKM&t=26s

Following the release of ChatGPT, OpenAI was reportedly valued at $29 billion, according to Insider.

Indeed, Microsoft could become the lead company in applying the next improved versions of  ChatGPT, not just to Bing, but a wide variety of business applications.

 

 

Greg Hoffman spent a career helping Nike shape and build its brand around the world.

In his new book Emotion by Design he shares what he’s learned to help you build your brand story. He are a few take outs:

As technology transforms almost every aspect of the way we live, work, relate to one another, can it also save the world?

At present, we are using resources and ecosystem services as though we had 1.7 Earths and such an ecological overshoot is possible only for a limited time before ecosystems begin to degrade and, ultimately, collapse.

In just over 40 years, the world has witnessed 60% decline in wildlife across land, sea and freshwater and is heading towards a shocking decline of two-thirds by 2025 if current trends continue.

Forests are under pressure like never before with unabated deforestation and at sea, 90% of the world’s fish stocks are overfished.

New tech has the potential to transform environmental protection.

Nothing is as good as nature, but the latest tech innovations have the potential to make huge steps forwards in our fight against the effects of climate change, declining biodiversity, and much more.

Earthshots

The Earthshot Prize was designed to find and grow the solutions that will repair our planet this decade. We face our greatest challenge; to regenerate the place we all call home in the next ten years.

Here are some of the winners of the Earthshot Prize 2022:

NotPla: plastic alternative made from seaweed in England

Just 9% of all the plastic ever produced has been recycled and 12% has been incinerated. The rest lies in landfills or has been dumped into the oceans. Notpla is an alternative to plastic made from seaweed and plants. The London-based start-up was founded by Pierre Paslier and Rodrigo Garcia Gonzalez in 2019.

At the London Marathon in 2019 36,000 Notpla-made Oohos, filled with Lucozade, were handed to runners. This year, Notpla has made over 1 million takeaway food boxes for Just Eat Takeaway.com, with the potential to replace over 100 million plastic coated containers in Europe in the future. The company is continuing to research and develop new formats and solutions, with flexible films and rigid materials in the pipeline.

Notpla’s impact is wide and varied. Seaweed farmed for its production captures carbon twenty-times faster than trees, addressing one of the key causes of the climate crisis. The packaging itself means less plastic clogging our seas, reducing ocean waste. Meanwhile, farms boost fish population and seaweed farming creates new opportunities for fishing communities.

44.01 capturing carbon, turning it into rock in Oman

Named after the molecular weight of carbon dioxide, Oman-based 44.01 removes CO2 permanently by mineralising it in peridotite, a rock found in abundance in Oman as well as in America, Europe, Asia and Australasia. Peridotite mineralisation is a natural process, but in nature it can take many years to mineralise even a small amount of CO2. 44.01 accelerates the process by pumping carbonated water into seams of peridotite deep underground.

Unlike carbon ‘storage’, which involves burying CO2 underground in disused oil-wells or aquifers, mineralisation removes CO2 forever. This means there is no requirement for long-term monitoring or insurance, and ultimately makes the process more cost-effective, scalable and safer.

Founded by Talal Hassan, 44.01’s first project will mineralise 1,000 tonnes of locally-captured CO2 every year until 2024. The company aims soon to expand its operations internationally, enabling local mineralisation without requiring costly CO2 transportation. 44.01’s goal is to have mineralised 1bn tonnes of CO2 by 2040.

As the world transitions to clean forms of energy, 44.01 is also providing new employment to engineers and geologists working in the fossil fuel industry. Given Oman has the largest concentration of peridotite in the world, carbon mineralisation could also be a boon for workers in the region. By seeking to solve global problems, 44.01 will solve local ones too.

Mukuru Clean Stoves … safer, cleaner cooking in Kenya

Growing up in Mukuru, one of Nairobi’s largest slums, for years Charlot Magayi sold charcoal for fuel. That charcoal was the cause of regular respiratory infections for her and her neighbours. Then, in 2012, her daughter was severely burnt by a charcoal-burning stove. Seeking a better solution, in 2017 she founded Mukuru Clean Stoves.

Rather than burning dangerous solid fuels, Mukuru Clean Stoves use processed biomass made from charcoal, wood and sugarcane. This burns cleaner, creating 90 percent less pollution than an open fire and 70 percent less than a traditional cookstove. They are cheaper too, costing just $10 and halving ongoing fuel costs.

Today, 200,000 people in Kenya use Mukuru Clean Stoves, saving $10 million in fuel costs and saving lives too. In rural areas, where young girls often spend three hours a day collecting firewood, they also save precious time. A female-founded business with mostly female staff and distribution agents, Mukuru is empowering women to make a living by making a difference.

Magayi plans to create an even cleaner stove that burns ethanol.  In three years, she hopes to reach one million customers. In ten years, she plans to reach ten million people all over Africa.

Here are some more examples, recently curated by WEF:

This BBC program explores more sustainable innovations:

From whirlpool turbines to edible cutlery, water blobs, and package-free shampoo and toothpaste, here are 22 more innovations to cut back on plastic, reduce garbage in the sea, and make the Earth a better place.

One of the biggest problems in innovation, in every industry and category, is that many  designers, marketers, engineers, and scientists often invest vast financial, intellectual, and emotional resources, over months and months of research, processing, experimentation, and prototyping, in projects that respond perfectly to addressing the wrong question.

Mediocre, poorly thought-out innovation, without any humanity – or you could say, selfish innovation dictated only by the economic interests of the individual enterprise, at the expense of users and the society the enterprise serves – is beginning to struggle to keep up, and there is no turning back

The kind of innovation that wins out today is genuine and authentic, and it aims to create personal and social value first and financial and economic value afterward, as a consequence

The design-driven and human-centered approach to business has perhaps often been considered superfluous by many organisations until recently, as this approach wasn’t always necessary to win in the market.

Now we are familiar with design thinking, at least as a hyped approach to collective, creative action. What we need to do, is make sure that design thinking really is human-centred thinking – ie about people – and future-oriented – ie it drives progress.

And its not just about product design – think of every aspect of design – from brand identity to organisation structure, business models to consumer engagement.

Mauro Porcini is PepsiCo’s much-hyped chief design officer, who more significantly spent a decade with 3M before joining the drinks business. In his book The Human Side of Innovation he explores putting the human factor at the center of everything.

Check out PepsiCo’s Design+Innovation hub

He says “In every industry, new technologies have lowered the barrier to entry like never before. Either you design exceptional products, brands and experiences, or somebody will beat you to it … the key to real, world-changing innovation is to put people first.”

Putting people first requires what Porcini calls unicorns: people who are in love with people and who have a genuine fire in them to create meaningful solutions for actual human beings. In this book, he describes them, celebrates them, and details their superpowers so you can find them, hire them, grow them, and retain them. Some have qualities you might expect—the ability to dream and an attention to detail—but when was the last time you heard an executive ask prospective hires if they were kind or humble?

Here are 11 “Principles of Meaningful Design”:

• Human: Useful, Emotional, and Semiotic
• Innovative: New, Unique, Distinct, and Extraordinary
• Aesthetically Sustainable: Beautiful, harmonious, pleasing to the senses, without any redundancy
• Functionally Sustainable: Practical, efficient, convenient, and ergonomic
• Emotionally Sustainable: Attractive and engaging
• Intellectually Sustainable: Accessible, intuitive, and user-friendly.l
• Socially Sustainable: Respectful, ethical, honest, and trustworthy
• Environmentally Sustainable: Eco-friendly
• Financially Sustainable: Valuable to the business and economically accessible to the user
• Relative: Depends entirely on the needs and desires of the person
• Poetic and Expressive: Permeated by a designer’s perspective and sensitivity

He starts his book like this:

“Innovation is an act of love—or at least it should be. Always. It is a gesture of empathy, respect, generosity, of one human being’s devotion to another. This is the innovation that I hope for.

This is the innovation that I want for my children and their children, for the society of today and of tomorrow. This is the very best innovation: meaningful, useful, beautiful, and sustainable innovation, the kind that continues to improve the status quo, now and for always.

This is the innovation that the new world we are living in requires. Not only because it is the right thing to do, ethically speaking—this should be the first and final word in the matter, though it often isn’t. But also because, at last, in our global, technological, and digital society, ethical goals are increasingly aligning with business goals for both enterprises and individuals. Innovation as an act of love is today (also) becoming good business!

Qatar’s hosting of the FIFA World Cup 2022 has certainly proved to be the most controversial in history – the murky bribery scandal that led to it being awarded, the $200 billion development of the infrastructure amidst the concern for migrant workers, and the continued ethical concerns of supporting a nation with values very different from many others.

Here, I’m focused on the business of football. And what makes the World Cup the world’s biggest sporting festival, bringing more nations and people together than any other event. Challenging for football supremacy, celebrating the diversity of nations and humankind, and one of the commercial world’s biggest brand sponsorship moments.

Audience

FIFA predicts a 5 billion global TV audience for its 2022 tournament.

In 25 of the 31 countries measured by Kantar, football is ranked the #1 sport and only in US (4th ranked), Canada (5th) and Australia (6th) is football outside the top #2. Out of 160 national and local sporting events, the FIFA World Cup is ranked the most followed event worldwide with almost 70% of all adults following the tournament.

55% of all adults questioned worldwide say they plan to watch at least some part of the World Cup. according to Ipsos. Viewing intent exceeds 75% in the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Peru, Brazil, and India.

Countries with the largest proportions of football followers are, in order: Indonesia (69%), Saudi Arabia (67%), the United Arab Emirates (65%), and India (60%). The next tier consists of Argentina (51%), Brazil (50%), South Africa (50%), and Peru (49%). In contrast, fewer than one in five in Japan (14%), Canada (15%), Hungary (18%), and The United States (19%) describe themselves as football followers.

87% of the audience are under 45, with an even split 50-50 male and female … 40% of the audience are likely to be 25-34 year olds, 25% 35-44, and 22% 18 -24, according to Digital Turbine. This is vastly different from the Super Bowl in the USA, where the majority of the audience are over 45.

Only 13% of World Cup viewers globally said they only watch football during World Cup matches, but nearly half (49%) watch every week or more frequently than that. 57% prefer watching at home, while 16% are likely to go to the stadium, and 15% prefer a bar or cafe. At home, 55% watch on TV/Cable, while 38% use their smartphone.

In terms of advertising effectiveness, 54% of viewers are likely to look up an ad aired during the World Cup and watch it again, and 83% of World Cup viewers are likely to consider purchasing a product that they have seen advertised.

Nielsen have a great report here: Fans are changing the game

Sponsors

Watch any World Cup game, and your eyes are quickly drawn to the digital, dynamic advertising boards around the pitch. Many viewers will be asking themselves, who actually are Byju’s, Hisense and Wanda.

Some sponsors will be familiar, particularly those who are FIFA’s long-term “partners”, while others are specific to this tournament:

Adidas: The German sportswear brand’s partnership with the governing body of world football dates back to the 1970s. Adidas has been the Official Match Ball supplier since that year and has also provided uniforms for all FIFA officials, referees, player escorts, ball crew and volunteers. The current contract granting Adidas Official Partner, Supplier and Licensee rights for all FIFA events lasts until 2030.

Coca-Cola: The Atlanta-based drinks business has been part of the World Cup since 1950. In 1978 it became an official sponsor, and since 2006, it has “exclusively activated the FIFA World Cup Trophy Tour”. In collaboration with The Panini Group, the Italian publishing company known for producing football collectibles, Coke releases digital and physical stickers. It also sponsors the FIFA World Rankings for both the men’s and the women’s national teams. Its current deal runs until 2030.

Wanda Group: The Beijing-based media business, who has a portfolio of media and production businesses, sports and entertainment venues, became the first-ever Chinese company to partner with FIFA in 2016, when it obtained FIFA’s highest level of sponsorship rights to cover all FIFA-affiliated tournaments and corporate activities until 2030. The company was founded in Dalian in 1988 as a residential real estate company by Wang Jianlin, and now has investments across many industries including construction, entertainment, media, industrial manufacturing, financial services, high technology, hospitality, real estate, retail, healthcare, and sports.

Hyundai: Car brands Hyundai and Kia are both subsidiaries of Seoul-based South Korean chaebol Hyundai Motor Group. Hyundai’s association with FIFA first began in 1999, and Kia entered the fold in 2006. Hyundai has been serving FIFA as its official ground transportation provider for the World Cups since 2006, supplying its fleet of vehicles to carry personnel ranging from high-ranking FIFA officials to media teams.

Qatar Airways: The Doha-based flag carrier airline has been the Official Airline of FIFA since 2017. The current deal between the two parties sees Qatar Airways sponsor all FIFA tournaments until the end of the 2022. It launched the official travel packages for fans interested in attending the quadrennial footballing extravaganza.

QatarEnergy: The state-owned petroleum company first partnered with FIFA for the 2021 Arab Cup in December 2021. In 2022, the company was announced as a FIFA Partner in a deal set to cover this year’s cup, but not beyond that. More like a local one-off sponsor, than partner.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWcBex5ygFs

Visa: The global financial services provider has been a global sponsor of FIFA and its Official Payment Technology Partner since 2007. Visa offers exclusive payment service for all FIFA-affiliated stores and events and also works with the governing body to create co-branded unique programmes for the fans. Visa is the world’s second-largest card payment organization (debit and credit cards combined), after being surpassed by China UnionPay in 2015. However it is still considered the dominant bankcard company in the rest of the world, where it commands a 50% market share of total card payments, and is currently the world’s most valuable financial services company.

Xero: New Zealand’s small-business management platform Xero was announced as a FIFA Women’s Football Partner in 2022, seeking to “champion women’s football and to further empower women working in small businesses and their communities around the world”. It will also support FIFA women’s football development programmes.

Algorand: Promoting itself as a “green blockchain technology company”, Algorand is FIFA’s official blockchain partner. Apart from branding rights, the deal entails Algorand providing FIFA official blockchain-supported wallet solutions while also working with the governing body over developing its digital assets strategy. Algorand was founded in 2017 by Silvio Micali, a professor at MIT. It is intended to solve the “blockchain trilema”: the claim that any blockchain system can have at most two of three desirable properties: decentralization, scalability, and security.

Calm: the San Francisco-based wellness company, partnered with FIFA  to make its online platform the Official Mindfulness and Meditation Product of the FIFA World Cup 2022. Apart from branding rights, the deal also means Calm free subscriptions are offered to players, workers and volunteers, and to fans at reduced rates. Calm was founded in 2012 by Michael Acton Smith and Alex Tew. Calm was Apple’s “App of the Year” in 2017, and Calm Health was released in 2022 and offered through traditional healthcare providers, payers, and self-insured employers.

These are the specific 2022 sponsors:

Budweiser: The Anheuser-Busch InBev-brewed beer has been the official beer sponsor of the men’s FIFA World Cup for over 35 years now, with the 2022 event set to be its tenth World Cup. 3 days before the 2022 tournament opened, the organisers withdrew beer sales from stadia, prompting Budweiser to tweet “This is awkward” but also potentially opening a huge contractual claim.

BYJU’S: The Bangalore-headquartered Indian edtech firm was announced as a sponsor of the 2022 World Cup in March 2022. The partnership allows Byju’S to use the World Cup branding to promote its brand across the world. The company also works towards creating educational content for young football fans worldwide. It is an Indian multinational educational technology company. It was founded in 2011 by Byju Raveendran and Divya Gokulnath. In 2022, Byju’s is valued at $22 billion with 115 million registered students.

Crypto: The Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange platform was announced as an Official Sponsor of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™ as well as its exclusive cryptocurrency trading platform in March 2022. Apart from branding rights, the partnership entails the two parties collaborating over awareness initiatives revolving around the platform. It also entails Crypto.com offering its users unique matchday experiences and opportunities to win merchandise.

Hisense: The Qingdao-headquartered Chinese electronics giant joined the roster of FIFA Commercial Affiliates and was announced as an Official Sponsor of the 2022 World Cup in April 2021. The partnership entails collaboration between the two parties over projects ranging from on-site activations to global ad campaigns.

McDonald’s: The Chicago-headquartered American fast-food giant has been a FIFA World Cup sponsor for over two decades. Throughout the quadrennial event, McDonald’s branding appears most prominently on the uniforms of the child mascots who accompany the players as they walk out on the pitch before a game. For the 2018 World Cup, McDonald’s was also the principal sponsor of the tournament’s official fantasy football game. The last renewal between FIFA and McDonald’s was announced in October 2014 and confirmed McDonald’s sponsorship of the World Cup until Qatar 2022.

China Mengniu Dairy Company: The Causeway Bay, Hong Kong-headquartered Chinese dairy products manufacturer was onboarded by FIFA as a second-tier World Cup sponsor for Russia 2018 in December 2017. In October 2021, China Mengniu Dairy Company was confirmed as a sponsor for the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

Vivo: The Dongguan-headquartered Chinese tech company became a sponsor in 2017 in a deal covering both Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022.  FIFA made vivo the exclusive smartphone sponsor for the 2021 Arab Cup, which was also held in Qatar.

Roblox: The online game creation platform was announced as a FIFA World Cup sponsor in 2022.The partnership entails creation and development of FIFA World, described as “a virtual environment that celebrates the power of football and the rich history of its pinnacle events”. This free-to-access virtual theme park is set to be developed over the course of the 2022 World Cup and offer football fans unique experiences, events and access to bespoke content from the FIFA+ library.

Hublot: The Nyon-headquartered Swiss watchmaker returned as the Official Timekeeper of the FIFA Men’s World Cup with a limited-edition watch designed to offer the football fans a unique experience. 15 minutes before each game in the tournament, the watch will display its user team line-ups and player profiles. The kick-off will send the watch into “match mode” and activate “timeline” that will allow the user to capture in-game moments. These moments will be replayable throughout the course of the match. Hublot is also “timing” all games at the World Cup, with all 129 official referees set to wear Hublot watches to assist them in their officiating throughout the tournament.

The Look Company: Based in Barrie, Ontario, the global visual engagement solutions provider was announced as a Regional Supporter of the 2022 World Cup in April 2022. As per the deal, the company will look forward to leveraging the partnership to “showcase its stadium dressing and signage capabilities to 3.5 billion viewers around the world”. In the past, The Look Company has also provided branding and signage solutions to FIFA for the 2019 Club World Cup.

Algorand: Promoting itself as a “green blockchain technology company”, Algorand was announced as FIFA’s official blockchain platform in May 2022. Apart from branding rights, the deal entails Algorand providing FIFA official blockchain-supported wallet solutions while also working with the governing body over developing its digital assets strategy. The deal also makes Algorand a Regional Supporter of the Qatar World Cup in North America and Europe as well as an Official Sponsor of the 2023 Women’s World Cup.

Frito-Lay: PepsiCo-owned, Plano, Texas-headquartered Frito-Lay became the first-ever salty-snack brand to collaborate with FIFA for the World Cup when it was announced as the 2022 WC’s North American Regional Supporter in June 2022. The partnership entails digital activations and advertising opportunities on the world football’s biggest stage and include the following Frito-Lay brands: Lay’s, Doritos, Cheetos, Tostitos, Ruffles, Sabritas, Quaker and Gamesa.

Teams

Team sponsors are less diverse. Adidas and Nike still dominate the uniforms and footwear of most teams and players.

Of the 32 nations, 13 will be sporting Nike kits (Qatar, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, France, Croatia, England, Netherlands, South Korea, Canada, Portugal, USA, Australia), and 7 Adidas (Germany, Belgium, Spain, Argentina, Japan, Mexico, Wales).

Adidas shares lost 6% market cap during the 2018 World Cup, when heavily favoured Germany, an Adidas team, was knocked out early and the FIFA tournament was won by France, a Nike team. Nike gained 4% during the same period, beating the S&P 500’s 1% gain.

For these sporting superbrands, this is probably their biggest “brand engagement” moment of each 4 years, and their advertising is some of the most anticipated:

Nike calls it the “Footballverse” with a series of advertising spots starting with “an international team of scientists at a secret lab in Switzerland finally cracked the code. They’ve written the formula that will put an end to any discussion—the ultimate battle of all football generations … With the push of a button, they bring us legendary players from the past and present. A crazy experiment unfolds. Watch now to find out if the world of science can find a way to settle the score.”

Alex Morgan, Carli Lloyd, Cristiano Ronaldo, CR Jr., Edgar Davids, Kevin De Bruyne, Kylian Mbappé, Leah Williamson, Phil Foden, Ronaldinho, Ronaldo Nazário, Sam Kerr, Shane Kluivert and Virgil van Dijk star in the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6p4SeR3pliM

Adidas continue their “Impossible is Nothing” tagline, but with a family theme: “This is our family. Every World Cup, we all get together to prove that impossible is nothing.”

This spot features some of their biggest individual stars, plus a few from beyond football: Lionel Messi, Karim Benzema, Achraf Hakimi, Son Heung-Min, Jude Bellingham, Pedro ‘Pedri’ González López, Serge Gnabry and Stormzy.

Players

Argentina’s Lionel Messi is probably the world’s popular footballer.

He earns around $55 million annually from brand endorsements (Adidas, Huawei, Gatorade, MasterCard, Lay’s, Pepsi, Hawkers, Ooredoo, Gillette, Turkish Airlines), which is more than his Paris St Germain salary of $65 million per year.

The 34 year old, probably in his last World Cup, has a net wealth of around $600 million.

Messi has invested in property. Around his birthplace of Rosario in Argentina, for example, he has put money into the Azahares del Parana project (a set of gated communities out of the city) as well as an apartment building in the city centre.

There’s also his lifestyle brand, The Messi Store.

Like many footballers, Messi has also dipped his toe into the investment worlds of cryptocurrency and NFTs, working in partnership with Ethernity, a company which also works with Pele and Luka Modric among others.

Portugal’s Christiano Ronaldo is a more controversial figure.

He is said to earn $60 million through endorsements (with Nike, Tag Heuer, Clean Haircare, Herbalife) and $40 million through his salary, previously with Manchester United until his recent bust-up with the manager. It seems his arrogance was too much for a team player, and he no longer respected or listened to manager or club.

His seven floor mansion is in his home town of Funchal, Madeira.  The construction of the estate was finished four years after the ex-Madrid star bought the warehouse located there for an undisclosed sum and it’s believed to have cost around €8m. He has an apartment in Trump Tower, New York worth $18.5 million

He launched his CR7 clothing brand a decade ago. Starting with underwear, he then moved into fragrance, footwear, shirts, gyms, jeans company and restaurants, all under the CR7 brand. He also invested $60 million in launching a global hotel chain with Pestana Hotel Group under the brand Pestana CR7.

Ronaldo is 3 years older than Messi, and has scored more career goals (804 in 1106 games, ie 0.72/game) however the Argentinian has the better average (0.79 goals/game, 759 in 957).

Messi has won more Ballon d’Or awards for the world’s best player, 7 times compared to Ronaldo’s 5.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5RIQ7hKiNU

France’s Kylian Mbappe is probably the world’s best player right now.

He’s also the world’s best paid player in 2022 according to Forbes. $128 million is made up of $110 million from endorsements and $18 million salary from PSG, where he is a team mate of Messi and Neymar ($87 million).

At only 23 years old, Mbappe clearly has the world at his feet, commercially and in his football. Messi and Ronaldo were well into their 30s before hitting their commercial peak.

Mbappe’s sponsors are led by Nike, Dior, Hublot and Oakley. He’s also on the cover of EA Sports FIFA video game, and an investor in fantasy NFT platform Sorare.

(Sources: Forbes, Sportskhabri, Deloitte)

In terms of social media influence, Ronaldo leads that way with 493 million followers on Instagram, with each Instagram post worth $2.8 million in media value.

Innovations

Al Rihla, the revolutionary match ball: Adidas has developed this new technology in close collaboration with FIFA and Kinexon. This will enable the referees to review live data automatically 500 times per second, allowing accurate detection of the kick point. Al Rihla will be the first World Cup ball to feature this innovation, providing precise ball data, which will be made available to refereeing teams in real-time.

Stadium cooling technology: Seven of the eight Qatar stadiums feature an advanced cooling technology that will keep the atmosphere inside the stadium temperate. There will be an energy centre near the stadium, from where chilled water is brought in a pipeline to the venue. Once it arrives, cold air is pushed onto the field and towards spectator seats. Sensors around the stadium keep the temperature constant, in each different area.

Semi-automated Offside Technology: Everyone has a love and hate attitude to offside rules, and VAR in general. FIFA has confirmed that semi-automated offside technology will be used, offering a support tool for the video match officials and the on-field officials to help them make faster, more accurate and more reproducible offside decisions. The new technology will have 12 tracking cameras around the stadium apart from a sensor inside the new Al Rihla ball, and linked directly to the Video Assistant Referee.

FIFA Player App: Players will be able to get insights into their on-field performance through the FIFA Player App immediately after each match. This innovation is the first visible outcome of the collaboration between FIFA and FIFPRO on developing standards and best practices for collecting, protecting and using personal player-performance data.

Intelligent Charging Stations: ElPalm will also be unveiled at the event. A wind turbine with solar panels will harness the power of the wind and sun. It will cover the fans and be furnished with USB charging stations, speakers for disseminating important information, and adverts. To keep all the fans connected while they are in their seats, ElPalm will also provide Wi-Fi.

Controversy 

Back in 2010, the disgraced then FIFA president Sepp Blatter announced Qatar’s victory. There was widespread scepticism about how exactly this tiny desert state, with no World Cup experience and scorching summer temperatures, had won.

So why did this World Cup matter so much to Qatar?

Allegations of corruption, vote-swapping, and links to trade deals at the highest levels of government have always been denied by organisers and remain unproven. But there is no denying the build-up to this tournament has been especially troubled.

There have been persistent fears over the human toll of building the infrastructure required in such a short period of time and in such a climate, along with discriminatory laws that prohibit homosexuality and curtail women’s freedoms through male guardianship rules.

Kantar research found that just under half (49%) of adults are ‘concerned about the human rights issues in the host nation’, with 18% unconcerned. Among the most avid World Cup fans concern rises slightly to 53%.

On human rights, The Netherlands tops the list among World Cup fans with 82% expressing concern, followed by Ireland (76%) and Mexico (75%). In the UK, 61% of fans are concerned.

Conversely, World Cup fans in China are the least concerned by human rights issues – the only market where more people disagree with the statement (37%) than agree (29%).

Fewer than half of World Cup fans (48%) agree that ‘holding the tournament in November – December compromises the tradition of the World Cup’; this rises to 66% in France and 64% in Germany (markets that are seeing the disruption of their domestic season).

BBC Analysis editor Ros Atkins adds his perspective on how Qatar won the bid to host the World Cup, as well as the human rights and environmental issues surrounding the tournament.

Enjoy the football!

I spend significant time working with the leaders of companies across the Middle East. It is a vibrant region, driven by its young and ambitious consumers, entrepreneurs and governments.

When arriving to deliver a keynote at the UAE Prime Ministers Office, I was greeted by a Pepper robot, who guided me around the ultra high-tech facility. Later I visited the Ministry of Possibilities, listening to the government’s Minister for AI talking about how a new generation of advanced tech will be prioritised to drive innovation, and make Dubai the world’s “best city to live in” by 2040.

Leading the executive team of Al Ghurair Investments – a Dubai-based group of real estate to mobility, energy and resources – through a two-day vision workshop, they looked back to their heritage – the first flour mill, the first bank, the first mall. Now they want to be pioneers of the future, enhancing everyday life, in novel and practical ways.

It’s the same story in KSA. Working with the board and exec team of Savola Group, the leading food and retail business, we explored the latest advances in more sustainable food production, for example pasta made from quinoa rather wheat, and new technologies to engage consumers, like quick-commerce. We explored new horizons, categories and geographies, with purpose beyond profit.

Oil no longer shines quite so brightly across the region. Aramco is huge, and the world’s most valuable company (or second to Apple, depending on oil prices), but there is a real commitment to diversify, and to use that oil-fuelled wealth to drive radical innovation, not to catch-up but to leap frog into a global hub of knowledge and innovation. In KSA, the nation’s Vision 2030 is driving transformational change, everywhere.

Technology is at the front of everyone’s minds. Enter Dubai’s new Museum of the Future, and you are immediately in a new sci-fi reality. It’s almost 20 years ago since I first worked with STC, previously known as Saudi Telecom. Today it is one of the most innovative tech businesses in the world. The same when I go to Etisalat or Zain. Same when I go to banks like Boubyan or NBK.

And then, of course, there are some truly mega-projects. Not just a local rivalry to construct the world’s tallest building, or most impressive shopping mall, but ventures like Neom. “It’s an attempt to do something that’s never been done before and it’s coming at a time when the world needs fresh thinking and new solutions. Simply put, it will be a destination, a home for people who dream big and want to be part of building a new model for sustainable living, working and prospering.”

Of course there are still big ethical questions, but mindsets and practices are changing quickly. Better to engage with local people and business leaders, to educate and support their positive developments, rather than passively judge from afar. Is this greenwashing? Yes, sustainability is a hot topic, and there is still plenty of oil being drilled. But in sectors like agriculture, necessity is driving the region to pioneer new sustainable methods. Q-commerce is growing faster here than anywhere in the world, driven by investment and a youthful demographic. And governments have committed to net-zero carbon by 2060.

Culturally, the region is transforming rapidly. Along the Jeddah waterfront women are out walking and even running. Justin Timberlake and the world’s richest Formula 1 Grand Prix are regular visitors too. In Cairo, I can’t wait to use the new Great Egyptian Museum open its doors, right in front of the pyramids. In Abu Dhabi you can visit the new Louvre (until 2037 when its brand license expires). KSA’s Ministry of Culture is doing great work too, to educate the world on Arabic heritage, but also to interpret culture in a modern way too.

Here are 12 of the most innovative companies I see right now in the Middle East:

Anghami … streaming Arabic music

Abu Dhabi-based Anghami is the biggest music streaming platform in the Middle East and North Africa. The service licenses music from big Arabic labels such as Platinum Records, Mazzika, and Melody, which it features alongside international hits. Its catalogue comprises more than 30 million songs available for over 70 million users. The company also serves as a social network in a region where few concerts are held, experimenting with ways for fans to share music with each other and discover artists as a community.

Aramex … frictionless delivery

To improve customer experience and last-mile transformation, Aramex has implemented frictionless and contactless delivery, and updated the Al model to factor in new transit times to increase transparency. It has boosted digital touchpoints to optimize delivery routes and shorten delivery times. It launched Aramex mobile app, rolled out an integrated logistics execution platform, and scaled impact through its Delivering Good platform, which is focused on education, youth empowerment, entrepreneurship, and the environment.

Cafu … on-demand car fueling

Cafu, part of Al Ghurair Investments, offers an on-demand fuel delivery service, saving time queuing up at fuel stations, and coming to the rescue during emergencies with the click of a button. As the MENA region’s first on-demand car service designed to meet the consumer’s needs, it has evolved to become the app of choice to streamline car ownership, setting a higher bar for innovation–from refueling vehicles to renewing car insurance.

Chalhoub … talent for fashion

Being a key player in the luxury market across the Middle East, Chalhoub rolled out programs to empower local designers, accelerate startups, and encourage women leaders. The conglomerate has launched an accelerator program for retail and tech startups to implement and test their solutions. They also brought new technology to brick-and-mortar stores, self-checkout powered by computer vision, experimented with immersive virtual experiences, transitioned towards unified commerce, and created a personalised shopping experience.

Emirates Crop One … vertical farming

Bustanica, based in Dubai, is the world’s largest vertical farm with 330,000-square-foot of shelves growing lettuce, spinach, arugula and more, with 95% less water and no pesticides, developed by Emirates Crop One (ECO) and JV between USA’s CropOne and Emirates Airlines, in a nation where 90% of food is imported.  Passengers of Emirates and almost 100 other airlines served by Emirates Flight Catering will be first to taste the produce.

Econcrete … living concrete

“ECOncrete” partners with cement makers to produce modified concrete whose composition, texture and design fosters the growth of native plants and animals. The company recently worked with the Rotterdam Authority to build 16 tide pools on the Calandkanaal, turning them into miniature ecosystems. The Israeli company has also worked on projects in New York, Georgia, Florida, and London.

Five Hotels … super-luxury living

Five Hotels and Resorts, which includes Five Palm Jumeirah and Five Jumeirah Village, has been rewriting the rules of hospitality and is a culinary destination with a range of restaurants, bars, and nightclubs. Five has prioritised customer relationships, adopted sustainability measures, and expanded digital touch points.It has adopted sustainability measures, including preserving biodiversity with over half a million square feet of flora at Five Jumeirah Village. It has a record label and an upcoming recording studio to bring together a global audience of music enthusiasts.

Huspy … digital home buying

With the increasing demand for home ownership in the UAE, Huspy is digitalising the home-buying experience for the entire ecosystem: buyers, real estate agents, and mortgage brokers. Huspy uses technology to create a transactional platform that lets users participate in every stage of the home-buying process—from finding a property to financing it. Using technology and expert knowledge, it has built a transparent and easy-to-understand experience.

Masdar City … sustainable living

Abu Dhabi’s clean-tech cluster, business-free zone, residential neighbourhood and public green spaces – has emerged as a hub for research and development, offering quality life with the lowest possible environmental footprint, with established measurable goals in energy consumption, water usage, waste generation, social impact, and economic viability. The city’s tenants include the International Renewable Energy Agency, the UAE Space Agency, G42 Healthcare, Siemens, Honeywell, Advanced Technology Research Center, and the Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence.

Neom … the futuristic megacity

The $500 billion project seeks to create a huge economic zone, a 26,500-square-km (10,230-square-mile) high-tech development on the Red Sea, including industrial and logistics areas, and able to house 9 million people. “The Line” is envisioned as a 200-metre-wide series of “modules” for different urban uses sandwiched between two 500-metre-high, 170-km-long mirrored exterior facades that cut through a vast array of desert and mountains. There will be hanging pathways, gardens and even a stadium. Glow-in-the dark beaches. Billions of trees planted in a country dominated by the desert. Levitating trains. A fake moon. A car-free, carbon-free city built in a straight line over 100 miles long in the desert. That’s the vision.

Noon … connecting entrepreneurs

The online retailer launched a quick-commerce service in Dubai, Riyadh, and Cairo, delivering home and beauty products, toys and groceries to customers in as little as 15 minutes. The Mahali initiative by Noon has embraced local Emirati and Saudi micro-entrepreneurs, providing them with assistance and support to build their enterprises online. Its food delivery service, Noon Food, offers local food and beverage providers viable means to engage with their customers online at low commission rates along with their logistics and fulfilment network.

RedSea … desert agritech

RedSea uses its patented technology to grow fruits and vegetables in harsh desert climates, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE, while reducing carbon, energy, and water footprint. It has developed salt, heat, and drought-tolerant crops and created solutions allowing them to grow. Using sunlight and saltwater as base resources, its innovative technology achieves savings of 300 litres of freshwater per kilo of produce, enabling greater production, improving food security, and reducing food miles in the MENA region.

Savola … sustainable foods

Egypt’s Nile Delta is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change and rising sea levels.With a population of over 100 million that already imports 60% of its food, any significant decline in agricultural output poses a major threat. Savola is one of the region’s largest food companies, now moving from commodities like cooking oil to develop added-value foods, but with sustainability as a key driver. One recent project was the development of Quinoa-based pasta, a much more environmentally-friendly ingredient, and more healthy too.

STC … daring with digital

STC has evolved from basic telecoms to advanced tech over 25 years, to become a world-class digital leader, built on “drive, devotion and dynamism”. 4 years ago STC recognised it needed to accelerate change in a tech-driven world, and put in place a bold plan to transform itself into a fully digital company incorporating all the elements of an ecosystem to serve the future. The strategy, called DARE, provided a new direction and pace of transformation. DARE stands for “Digitising STC, Accelerating performance, Reinventing experience, and Expanding in scale and scope of everything we do.”

More from Peter Fisk

• Next Agenda of best ideas and priorities for business
• Megatrends 2030 in a world accelerated by pandemic
• 49 Codes to help you develop a better business future
• 100 companies innovators shaking up the world
• 100 leaders with the courage to shape a better future
• Education that is innovative, issue-driven, action-driving
• Consulting that is collaborative, strategic and innovative
• Speaking that is inspiring, topical, engaging and actionable

How has SpaceX revolutionising its way to design, build and launch a rocket into space ? How does this technique also apply to Tesla?

In a recent interview at SpaceX’s Starbase, its development location at Boca Chica in Texas, Elon Musk described the process which he has evolved to work smarter in developing and launching anything.

In the Everyday Astronaut interview below he explains the five steps, and specifically the sequence, which he believes are essential to engineering something wholly new.

His approach of building ‘good enough’ is very aligned to Lean Startup and Minimum Viable Product, in fact he refers to a ‘Minimum Viable Rocket’ in the interview.

Here are the 5 steps:

Step 1. Clarify: Make the requirements less dumb.

“Make the requirements less dumb. The requirements are definitely dumb; it does not matter who gave them to you. It’s particularly dangerous when they come from an intelligent person, as you may not question them enough. Everyone’s wrong. No matter who you are, everyone is wrong some of the time. All designs are wrong, it’s just a matter of how wrong,” explains Musk.

Step 2. Simplify: Delete the part or process. 

“Try very hard to delete the part or process. If parts are not being added back into the design at least 10% of the time, [it means that] not enough parts are being deleted. The bias tends to be very strongly toward ‘let’s add this part or process step in case we need it’. Additionally, each required part and process must come from a name, not a department, as a department cannot be asked why a requirement exists, but a person can,” says Musk.

Step 3. Optimise: optimise the design. 

“Simplify and optimise the design. This is the most common error of a smart engineer — to optimize something that should simply not exist,” according to Musk. He, himself, has been a victim of implementing these steps out of order. He refers to a “mental straightjacket” that happens in traditional schools where you always have to answer the question regardless of whether the premise makes any sense at all.

Step 4. Accelerate: accelerate cycle time. 

“Accelerate cycle time. You’re moving too slowly, go faster! But don’t go faster until you’ve worked on the other three things first,” explains Musk. Here he uses another example of how these steps should occur in order. During a wrongheaded process you should simply stop, not accelerate. He says, “If you’re digging your grave, don’t dig it faster.”

Step 5. Automate. 

“The final step is: automate. An important part of this is to remove in-process testing after the problems have been diagnosed; if a product is reaching the end of a production line with a high acceptance rate, there is no need for in-process testing. I have personally made the mistake of going backwards on all five steps multiple times. In making Tesla’s Model 3, I literally automated, accelerated, simplified and then deleted,” says Musk.

You can watch the full Everyday Astronaut video here (the 5 steps are described in the 13.30 mins point), and you can find more here.

Change and transformation are big words, and too often misused.

I cringe when I hear companies implementing new email systems, or an efficiency drive, or a new database, or a rejigged organisation structure. And calling it transformation.

Yes it’s a change. Changes typically fix problems, improve things. But transformation is about creating the future. A different, better future.

Transformation is a journey. Typically bringing together many changes, with a purpose, a direction, a structure, that magnifies their impact. It’s significant, lasting, irreversible, and with big impact.

And don’t be fooled by the phrase digital transformation either. Too often this is misused by IT consultants to mean the automation of existing business models and process. That’s just digitisation. You need to do more.

Transformation typically unlocks significant new business opportunities (say, a 25-50% growth in new types of revenues), and it can take a long time. Sometimes it’s a 10 year journey.

• What is business transformation by McKinsey by McKinsey
• The Transformation 20: Global Ranking 2019 by Innosight
• Transformation:Delivering and sustaining breakthrough performance by BCG
• Building the Transformational Company by StrategyTools
• The Transformation Playbook by Thinkers50
• Executing successful transformations by Deloitte

Getting started

What motivates a business leader to embark on strategic business transformation?

Sometimes it’s a financial crisis, sometimes it’s the threat from a disruptive competitor, sometimes growth stagnates as markets mature or decline, sometimes it’s the opportunity to ride a new global megatrend, and sometimes it’s the result of proactive strategic planning.

To better understand the dynamics of why and how transformation happens, Innosight’s “Transformation 20” study evaluated the strategic change efforts of many companies, seeking to identify best practices across industries and geographies. The ranking is based on three factors: finding new growth (% of revenue beyond core), repositioning the core (giving the legacy business new life), financial growth (revenue, profit and economic value over the transformation).

Scott Anthony describes the essence of this kind of transformation: “What businesses are doing here is fundamentally changing in form or substance. A piece, if not the essence, of the old remains, but what emerges is clearly different in material ways. It is a liquid becoming a gas. Lead turning into gold. A caterpillar becoming a butterfly.”

Here are some examples of such transformations:

• Adobe … transformed from product to service, from document software into digital experiences, marketing, commerce platforms and analytics
• Amazon … transformed its own infrastructure into “Amazon Web Services” which enables other organisations to operate their online businesses.
• DBS … transformed itself from a regional bank to a global digital platform, a “27,000-person start-up” and crowned “Best Bank in the World.”
• Microsoft … transformed from a business model based primarily on selling product licenses (IP), to a cloud-based platform-as-a-service business.
• Netflix … shifted from DVDs by mail into the leading streaming video content service and now a top original content provider.
• Ping An … transformed itself from insurance into a cloud tech business providing fintech and AI-based medical imaging & diagnostics.
• Tencent … transformed from social and gaming business to a platform embracing entertainment, autonomous vehicle, cloud computing, and finance.

Transformation is about significant, lasting, non-reversible change to the way in which the company operates and creates value, typically where at least 25% of total revenues comes from new business units or business models. It can take time, 10 years as demonstrated by Orsted, but also sets the business on a new course for a better future.

Whilst digital technologies are a significant enabler of transformation, companies should beware of the term “digital transformation” which is often used to describe the automation of business functions, seeking more efficiency and speed, or broader applications of technology. Similarly, “culture change” is not the same as business transformation. In both cases it is only transformative if it is accompanying by a more holistic reinvention of the business, including its strategy and business models, propositions and performance.

Pivot to a new space

The destination of any transformation might be quite different from how it was initially envisioned. Many projects, and even businesses, find that they reach a point where they need to significantly change direction, based on what they have learnt. This is a “pivot”, and has been a feature of many start-up journeys in recent years.

• Instagram initially known as Burbn started out as an online discussion forum developed by Kevin Systrom whilst learning how to program, but now has 1 billion users simply sharing images.
• Slack started as a game called Glitch, developed by Stewart Butterfield after he sold Flickr. The game didn’t take off, but its platform evolved to become Slack, a place for collaborative working.
• Twitter was previously known as Odeo, a podcasting platform before podcasts took off. Jack Dorsey decided to shift to microblogging as he called, it, rebranding it as Twitter, and a leader in short posts and status updates.
• YouTube originated as a dating site, encouraging people to upload videos of themselves. Few people embraced the concept, but when the site opened up to anyone who wanted to share a video, over 2 billion people signed up.

For larger organisation, they need to learn to pivot as part of their evolution, and as a sequence of transformations.

As they ride the “S curves” of market change, they accelerate as new ideas take off, but then slow as ideas mature. Eventually, without change, the old business declines, as the market moves in new directions, and a new S Curve takes off. The challenge of transformation is to ride the S Curves, jumping to the new curve whilst still thriving on the old curve, transforming before you need to.

Transform for today and tomorrow

How can you create the future, whilst at the same time deliver today?

Janus was a Roman god with two sets of eyes, one pair focused on what lay behind, the other on what lay ahead.

Change unlocks new opportunities to create new markets. It is the moment when a business typically needs to protect and improve its current activities, but also seize the opportunities of tomorrow, to explore and create new businesses.

Like Janus, business needs to be ambidextrous, to simultaneously think and work in the short and long-term. Short-term sales earn the cash, but also the permission, to create a better future. However, this is not a sequential challenge, nor a parallel challenge. The organisation shouldn’t delay tomorrow in order to win today or work separately on both.

The trick is to ensure that today leads to tomorrow, short-term actions lead to long-term progress. Too many leaders become obsessed by the short-term, and lose sight of the bigger goals. Of course, a heads-down focus on grinding out results looks good, often sub-servient to the perceived impatience of investment analysts. But this misses the point. Investors are most interested in future success, today is just a guide to it.

Dual Transformation

 Scott Anthony, in his book “Dual Transformation”, describes this shift as three components.

• Transformation A: repositioning and improving the core business to maximise resilience (eg Adobe moving from packaged software to SaaS).
• Transformation B: creating a new growth engine (eg Amazon adding cloud computing services, and streaming content on top of ecommerce).
• Capabilities C: the best way to share assets and resources, brand and scale, and managing the interface between the core and the new.

Transformation A involves accepting changed circumstances, devising new metrics, and bringing in fresh talent experienced in emerging work environments. Transformation B requires understanding of future opportunities, changing consumers, and value patterns. This helps develop new business models through iterative experimentation and willingness to pivot. This may involve acquiring other companies and forging new partnerships, depending on expectations of impact periods.

Anthony likens the capability link to an airlock in a spaceship or submarine. This team includes savvy veterans and diplomatic managers, but the business leader will need to drive hard decisions on which core skills are relevant during transformation, and arbitrate during the inevitable arguments and turf wars. Tough calls will need to be made regarding speed of operation, pricing options, and assessing some of the inevitable failures along the way. Other challenges in dual transformation are balancing attention and assets, and protecting traditional income streams while also growing new sources in a slow and experimental manner.

 Shifting the core

As businesses evolve, their centre of gravity moves.

We see this in the evolution of IBM, which grew famous as the innovator of mainframe computers. As the market shifted, driven by technological evolution, from mainframe to desktop to laptop, IBM found many more competitors.

For some time it moved with the trend, developing its own desk and laptops, whilst also exploring new business areas, particularly in services like consulting. Eventually it recognised that its strength was no longer in making any type of computers, but in the advice it could offer, and shifted to become a consulting business at its core.

The shit in the core can be seen in three stages:

• Focus on the core: clearly define your core business, strengthen it and seek to drive growth through it in existing and new markets
• Beyond the core: extend into adjacent markets, that can leverage off the core like IBM into services, with their own revenue streams
• Redefine the core: as markets evolve, the old core business may start to decline, before which is the time to shift to consolidate the new core

Whilst this shift might seem a fundamental transformation of the business, as we saw with Philips, it might simply be about following the same purpose, but interpreting how to deliver on that purpose in new and evolving ways. The shift might equally be represented by a more intangible asset, such as brand or capability, which can be deployed with partners in new industries, as in the shift of Ping An.

Strategic agility

The agile business wins by focusing on the future, by making change normal.

By embracing experimentation and adaption as part of normal business life, change becomes less daunting and invasive. Few strategies are set in stone, most organisational models are fluid, rules become principles, disruption is encouraged.

Traditional forms of stability, such as detailed strategy documents or job descriptions, are replaced by summaries that outline broader areas, define boundaries rather than details, and can be easily adapted over time.

The key attributes of strategic agility are to:

• Focus on purpose, rather than strategy … try putting your strategy on one piece of paper, use the power of three ideas, embrace frames not details.
• Focus on customers, rather than competitors … be driven by insight not by being a little difference, solving problems not being cheaper, growth not share.
• Focus on opportunity, rather than capability … driven by future not your past, what you could do not did do, then find partners to help you do it.
• Focus on people, rather than structures … think about people and personalities, not job titles and status, and the power of small teams to achieve more.
• Focus on outcomes, rather than process … give people space to solve problems in creative ways, seek better outcomes not compliance.

The agile business is fluid, which can be disorientating but also liberating.

Agile organisations are complex adaptive systems. Distributed organisations, network-based ecosystems, empowered and self-managed teams, mean that whilst small parts might be clear, they don’t lead to an understanding of the whole. The benefits of the whole, are not achieved as before through standardisation and connectedness, but more through an interconnected web of many personal relationships and projects.

Organisations from Alibaba to Baidu, Haier to Supercell, Wikipedia to Al Qaeda, are examples of organisations who have defied the desire for structure, and instead exist as many moving parts, almost feeling chaotic. Indeed agile organisations are often said to operate “on the edge of chaos”.

More

• ASEAN Transformation Champions 2020 by Innosight
• The Transformation 20: Global Ranking 2019 by Innosight
• Your Next Transformation Should by All In by McKinsey
• Dual Transformation in Action by Innosight
• Business Recoded by Peter Fisk

We cannot predict the future, but we can anticipate it …

Science and technology are moving faster than ever, raising fundamental questions for humanity: Who are we, as humans? How can we all live together? How can we ensure the well-being of humankind and a sustainable future for our planet?

The 2022 GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar provides an overview of science trends and breakthrough predictions at 5, 10 and 25 years in 37 science and technology emerging topics, a synthesis of the related fundamental debates and actions in society, and an exploration of opportunities for concerted action through initial contributions on the implications for international affairs, global challenges, and the SDGs.

Download the radar here

GESDA was founded in 2019 to develop and promote anticipatory science and diplomacy for greater impact and multilateral effectiveness. The Science Breakthrough Radar was created by a global network of leading scientists involving more than 500 scholars from over 50 countries. They identified possible breakthroughs at 5, 10 and 25 years on four pivotal frontier issues in science.

These advances will potentially have a significant impact on who we are as humans, how we are going to live together and how we can ensure the sustainability of our planet:

1. Quantum Revolution & Advanced AI

Artificial intelligence (AI), already a world-changing technology, is set to grow in power and influence. Quantum technologies are already having an impact on sensing, imaging and metrology, and quantum computing and communications are also drawing close to meaningful real-world applications

Emerging Topics:

1. Advanced AI
2. Quantum Technologies
3. Brain-inspired Computing
4. Biological Computing
5. Augmented Reality
6. Collective Intelligence

2. Human Augmentation

Recent advances in neuroscience and machine learning have ushered in innovations for cognitive enhancement, improving human memory, cognition, and other aspects of consciousness

Emerging Topics:

1. Cognitive Enhancement
2. Human Applications of Genetic Engineering
3. Radical Health Extension
4. Consciousness Augmentation
5. Organoids
6. Future Therapeutics

3. Eco-Regeneration & Geoengineering

From the development of negative emission technologies that extract CO2 from the atmosphere, to the rapid development and scaling up of renewable energy sources — including the development of advanced materials and energy storage capacity — the decarbonisation of the planet has a ready roadmap

Emerging Topics:

1. Decarbonisation
2. World Simulation
3. Future Food Systems
4. Space Resources
5. Ocean Stewardship
6. Solar Radiation Modification
7. Infectious Diseases

4. Science & Diplomacy

Advances in science diplomacy seek to create an evidence-based foundation for this endeavour, and the increasingly diverse set of actors who practice it. One issue is how to train, incorporate and empower these actors at state level and at non-state levels, from global companies, from grass roots organisations and from non-governmental organisations

Emerging Topics:

1. Science-based Diplomacy
2. Advances in Science Diplomacy
3. Digital Technologies and Conflict
4. Democracy-Affirming Technologies

5. Knowledge Foundations

Knowledge Foundations draw on research from multiple disciplines and have effects that span numerous human, social and environmental spheres

Emerging Topics:

1. Complex Systems Science
2. Future of Education
3. Future Economics
4. The Science of the Origins of Life
5. Synthetic Biology

Other GESDA reads and reports

The “Handbook of Collective Intelligence” provides a comprehensive introduction to the multidisciplinary field of modern CI research,⁴ while Nesta’s “The Collective Intelligence Design Playbook” shows how these ideas can be put into practice.⁵ An overview in the journal ACM Computing Surveys of the diversity and potential synthesis of CI frameworks gives a solid grounding in the state of the underlying theory⁶. And a pair of books from Gianni Giacomelli outline the potential of combining AI and human networks to created “augmented” CI.⁷