Peter Fisk

In a world of extraordinary information overload, how do you keep on top of a changing world, and make some sense of the future?

My good friend Ross Dawson, an Australian futurist, has just published his latest book Thriving on Overload.

He suggests that there is a clear set of habits, approaches and technologies that can help us to master the tide and keep on top of it all. Those who learn to thrive on overload will be true masters of the information age,

We’re all familiar with the massive information overload that is the defining feature of our age. The incessant deluge threatens to drown us, yet within its excess lies almost everything of value today.

The capacity to thrive on limitless information is now the single most important capability for success, yielding not just powerful insight, world-leading expertise, and better decisions, but also improved wellbeing.

Ross shares simple actionable techniques for staying ahead in an accelerating world. It’s all about choosing to thrive on overload―rather than being overwhelmed by it. Develop the five intertwined powers that enable extraordinary performance in a world of overload:

• Purpose: understanding why you engage with information enables a healthier relationship that generates success and balance in your life
• Framing: creating frameworks that connect information into meaningful patterns builds deep knowledge, insight, and world-class expertise
• Filtering: discerning which information best serves you helps surface valuable signals above the pervasive noise
• Attention: allocating your awareness with intent―including laser-like focus and serendipitous discovery―maximizes productivity and outcomes
• Synthesis: expanding your capacity to integrate a universe of ideas yields powerful insight, the ability to see opportunities first, and improved decision-making

In a business and working environment defined by excessive information, one of most powerful leverage points to increase corporate productivity is to assist individuals and teams to be more effective in how they deal with information overload.

Creating value from a superabundance of information is the foundational skill today for all executives, professionals, and managers. Few have ever been taught how to be effective at this, and everyone can improve their capabilities.

The role of a futurist as a leader

Through history there have been many wonderful visionaries, seers, and sci fi writers who have presented us with glimpses of the future. Here’s a list pulled together by Ross, which is worth exploring for its imagination, but also how they turned out years later:

• How Isaac Asimov shaped robotics and space exploration and predicted the Internet
• How Margaret Atwood tries to prevent dystopian futures by writing about them
• How Ray Bradbury‘s Fahnrenheit 451 foretold the social tensions and technology of today
• The big hits and the misses from Arthur C. Clarke’s eccentric and influential predictions
• How Buckminster Fuller anticipated today’s challenges over 50 years ago
• How William Gibson’s Neuromancer shaped our vision of technology
• How Donna Haraway’s Cyborg Manifesto foresaw genetic engineering, bro culture, precision marketing and sex tech
• The predictions of Robert A. Heinlein, from the Cold War to the waterbed
• Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the future of technology, medicine, and A.I.
• Nikola Tesla and his electrifying predictions
• The uncanny foresight of Alvin and Heidi Toffler from prosumers to same sex marriage
• Uber Eats and 10 other things that John Elfreth Watkins Jr. correctly predicted in 1900
• HG Wells’ spot-on predictions will make you think he really did time travel

Tools to explore the future

While foresight is largely based on human cognition and understanding, software can be very valuable in a variety of functions, including compiling, categorizing and connecting trends and themes, mapping systems, visualising change, and more:

• 4strat
• Joel Barker
• Circle for Prospective Action (CPA)
• FIBRES
• Futures Platform
• Futurescaper
• ITONICS
• Parmenides
• Scenario Management International (ScMI)
• Softmark
• Shaping Tomorrow
• The Millenium Project

The role of a futurist as a leader

A futurist’s aim is to encourage leadership on all levels. That is, helping people to think in a rich and structured way about tomorrow in order to act to day. Futurists are involved in sense making, giving people the ability to deal with information. Everyone is overwhelmed by the infinity of signals. Futurists help people to open their minds and think of things that they did not think before.

A vital point here is that the role of the futurist is not to provide outsourced thinking about the future.

The role of the futurist is to help everyone to become their own futurist, to think more broadly, to be open to different ideas, to stimulate and provoke into taking useful action.

We are at a critical juncture in human history, when actions we take – or do not take – today will shape our collective future to an extraordinary degree. The future is not predetermined. By understanding the nature of change we can act to create a better future.

Futurists, in grappling with these issues more than most, have a responsibility to help others to think forward and understand the potential impact of their actions.

In fact, in that all of us need to be our own futurists, we all have a responsibility not just to think about the future and how we will act. We also need to help others to think forward and in turn to act better today.

Jim Weber joined Brooks Running Company as CEO in 2001 and is credited for the Seattle-based running company’s aggressive turnaround story. The business and brand success caught the attention of Warren Buffett, who acquired Brooks and made it a subsidiary company of Berkshire Hathaway in 2012.

Weber’s new book Running with Purpose is about the story of Brooks’ transformation.

Brooks was founded in 1914, and originally manufactured shoes for a broad range of sports. “White hot” in the mid-70s, the company faltered in the latter part of the decade, and filed for bankruptcy protection in 1981. 

In 2001, Weber joined the company as CEO. The product line was cut by more than 50% to focus the brand solely on running, and its concentration on performance technology was increased. Brooks Running became the top selling brand in the specialty running shoe market in 2011, and continues to hold around 20% of the USA running shoe market.

Weber’s book is summarised on the back cover with this …  “Discover Brooks’ extraordinary challenger brand story as it went from near bankruptcy to finding its purpose and running to the front of the pack in the highly competitive global running market. Brooks is a turnaround tale for the ages on how a brand was re-founded and a passionate, determined team fueled its growth with performance gear and celebrating every runner’s run.”

The book brings together insider insights and inspirational stories for leaders, entrepreneurs, brand builders, “and especially the 150+ million runners worldwide who continually invest in themselves and put positive energy into the world”.

It starts with Jim Weber’s seventh-grade dream to run a successful company that delivered something people passionately valued. Fast forward to 2001, Jim became the CEO of Brooks and, as the struggling brand’s fourth CEO in two years, he faced strong headwinds.

A lifelong competitor, Jim devised a one-page strategy that he believed would not only save the company but would also lay the foundation for Brooks to become a leading brand in the athletic, fitness, and outdoor categories.

To succeed, he had to get his team to first believe it was possible and then employ the conviction, fortitude, and constancy of purpose to outperform larger brands. Brooks’ success was validated when Warren Buffett made it a standalone Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary in 2012. In the pages of Running with Purpose, you will find:

• Brooks’ bold strategy and unique brand positioning that fueled its move from the back of the pack to lead.
• The key to building a purpose-driven brand that is oriented around customer obsession, building trust, competing with heart, and having fun along the way.
• The six clear leadership lessons Jim has learned along his path and applies at Brooks to develop staff into authentic leaders.
• How Berkshire Hathaway’s support and influence provided a tailwind for Brooks’ business and brand to surge.
• An inside look at the ups and downs of Jim’s personal journey, which led to his conviction that life is too short not to enjoy what you do and the people by your side.

 

What’s your big idea? And how do you explain it?

Whether you’re an entrepreneurial start-up looking for early investment, or a senior executive seeking to articulate where you want to take your business next, a “future story” is crucial.

It’s a carefully structured narrative that describes how you see the future, the way you see your business succeeding within it, and an overview of the path that will get you there.

• What’s your future story: finding more purpose 

It typically takes the form of a “pitch deck“. But don’t just think ppt presentation by start-ups. A pitch deck could indeed be a formal presentation, or a thoughtful letter, or a detailed strategic plan, or a powerfully spoken narrative.

The pitch deck structures your future story. It becomes the magic bullet that inspires, engages and convinces investors and other stakeholders, that yours is the future that they want to be part of.

Ultimately it’s about storytelling. And like any good narrative, it should be compelling, credible, and concise. Grab your audiences attention in your first slide and work to hold it as you describe the business concept, the market opportunity, and what it will take to make happen.

Here are some great examples of pitch decks, from entrepreneurs and corporates, to inspire your future story, your structure for telling it, and your future success.

Examples of start-up pitches

Airbnb Pitch Deck 2008

In 2007 Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia were broke and looking to raise money to make their rent in San Francisco. They decided to rent out air mattresses in their apartment to attendees of a conference because all the hotels were booked. They called their service “Air Bed and Breakfast.” In a few years, this small experiment would create the hotel industry disruptor Airbnb.

Uber Pitch Deck 2008

Uber’s story began in Paris in 2008. Two friends, Travis Kalanick and Garrett Camp, were attending LeWeb, an annual tech conference The Economist describes as “where revolutionaries gather to plot the future.” The concept for Uber was born one winter night during the conference when the pair was unable to get a cab. Uber was founded on a single idea: “What if you could request a ride from your phone?”

Linkedin Pitch Deck 2004

Reid Hoffman started out at Apple, launched his first business SocialNet in 1997, a matchmaking site based on leisure interests, and then joined PayPal as COO. In 2003 he launched LinkedIn as a social networking site for business people. Based in Mountain View, it was acquired by Microsoft in 2016, and now has over 900 million members in more than 200 countries.

Tinder Pitch Deck 2012

Sean Rad and engineer Joe Munoz built the original prototype for Tinder, “MatchBox”, during a hackathon in February 2012. Tinder is an online dating and geosocial networking application. On Tinder, users “swipe right” to like or “swipe left” to dislike other users’ profiles, which include their photos, a short bio, and some of their interests. In 2022, Tinder had 10.9 million subscribers and 75 million monthly active users.  As of 2021, Tinder had recorded more than 65 billion matches worldwide.

Revolut Pitch Deck 2015

Revolut describes itself as building the world’s first truly global financial superapp. In 2015, Revolut launched in the UK offering money transfer and exchange. Headquartered in London, it was founded in 2015 by Nikolay Storonsky and Vlad Yatsenko. It offers accounts featuring currency exchange, debit cards, virtual cards, Apple Pay, interest-bearing “vaults”, commission-free stock trading, crypto, commodities, and other services.

Examples of corporate presentations

23andMe Investor Presentation 2024

Anne Wojcicki wants to change the face of healthcare. 23andMe, her personal genetics testing company. In 2021, 23andMe merged with Richard Branson’s VG Acquisition Corp (a SPAC), in a $3.5 billion transaction, to take the business public. A new business model is rapidly taking shape. Compared to the old world, where drugs were made generically, and pharma companies never connected with patients, 23andMe is now fundamentally disrupting that model.

Coca Cola Investor Presentation 2024

The Coca-Cola Company was founded in 1892 and produces Coca-Cola plus a large portfolio of other beverages, sold in more than 200 countries and territories. The company has operated a franchised distribution system since 1889. The company largely produces syrup concentrate, which is then sold to various bottlers throughout the world who hold exclusive territories. It describes its purpose as “To Refresh The World And Make A Difference”.

Tesla Investor Presentation 2023

Tesla is an automotive and clean energy company based in Austin, Texas, which designs, manufactures and sells battery electric vehicles, stationary battery energy storage devices from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar shingles, and related products and service. It was founded in July 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, with Elon Musk later joining them and becoming CEO in 2008. In the same year the Roadster sports car launched, followed by the Model S sedan in 2012, the Model X SUV in 2015, the Model 3 sedan in 2017, the Model Y crossover in 2020, the Tesla Semi truck in 2022 and the Cybertruck pickup truck in 2023.

Hello Fresh Investor Presentation 2023

HelloFresh is a meal-kit company based in Berlin, Germany. It was founded in November 2011 by Dominik Richter. elloFresh’s business model is to prepare the ingredients needed for a meal, and deliver them to customers, who must then cook the meal using recipe cards, which can take around 30–50 minutes. It generally provides about three two-person meals a week for about $60 to $70. Each week, about 45 recipes are offered for users to choose from.

Schneider Electric Investor Presentation 2023

Schneider Electric’s purpose is “to empower all to make the most of our energy and resources, bridging progress and sustainability for all”. They call this “Life Is On”. The French company’s mission is to be your digital partner for sustainability and efficiency. It drives digital transformation by integrating world-leading process and energy technologies, end-point to cloud connecting products, controls, software and services, across the entire lifecycle, enabling integrated company management, for homes, buildings, data centers, infrastructure and industries.

Shopify Investor Presentation 2023

Founded by Germany’s Tobias Lütke, and based in Canada, the Shopify platform offers online retailers a suite of services, including payments, marketing, shipping and customer engagement tools. s of 2023, Shopify hosts 4.6 million stores across 175 countries. According to the company’s yearly financial report for 2023, its total revenue reached $7.1 billion. Shopify was founded in 2006 when Lütke sought to build Snowdevil, an online store for snowboarding equipment. Dissatisfied with the existing e-commerce products on the market, Lütke, a computer programmer by trade, instead built his own.

Intuitive Machines Investor Presentation 2022 

Intuitive Machines is a space exploration company based in Houston, Texas. It was founded in 2013 by Stephen Altemus, to provide lunar surface access, lunar orbit delivery, and communication from lunar distance. It holds three NASA contracts including one  to develop a Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV). It became public in 2023, listed on the Nasdaq. In February 2024, the Odysseus IM-1 spacecraft landed on the Moon. It was the first privately built craft to land on the Moon, and the first American spacecraft to do so since 1972.

So what makes a great “pitch deck”?

A great story grabs you immediately. So does a great pitch.

In its 2004 pitch deck, Facebook started with this compelling quote from the Stanford student newspaper: “Classes are being skipped. Work is ignored. Students are spending hours in front of the computer in utter fascination. Thefacebook.com craze has swept through campus.”

In the opening slides of its pitch deck, Airbnb left no confusion about what it planned to do. “Book rooms with locals, rather than hotels,” the first slide proclaimed. By the third slide, the reader knew exactly why that idea made sense. “Save Money. Make Money. Share Culture.”

However it’s not just about a creative vision. People gain confidence from numbers – describe the existing market clearly, or if you seek to develop in a new space, use adjacent markets as comparisons. Then you can apply some logic to your future projections, how could it grow, what gives you this confidence. And ultimately, what’s the size of the prize?

Talk a bit about people too. Investors are human, and ultimately engage with people not proposals. And we all know that whatever great plan you have right now, is unlikely to work out quite in the way you imagine. Therefore its about the people, do they have the ambition, capability, resilience and creativity to find the better future.

There is no one structure that works best, but a typical flow might be

• Title … start with a clear and interesting title or theme
• Introduction … establish the context, where, who, what
• Problem … what’s the problem to solve, the opportunity
• Solution … the business concept, core products or services
• Opportunity  … market size, trends, potential, and size of prize
• Difference … who are competitors, alternatives, why you’re better
• Roadmap  … a horizon-based plan with phases, milestones
• Team … a bit about the key people, interesting, relevant
• Testimonials … more confidence, support, endorsement
• Next steps … what happens next, or what you need now

Of course, graphical presentation does matter – a diagram can tell a thousand words, a sketch prototype enables people to interact – and of course visually engaging images, colour and design layout can be powerful. But don’t go overboard. It’s the business idea, the logic, the story, that really matter.

• HBS Pitch Deck Example
• PwC Pitch Deck Example

I’ve worked with many entrepreneurs and corporate leaders on their pitch decks, and what always strikes me is how they get lost in the detail. Either they are too obsessed about the technology, or the financials, or the nifty graphics. What matters is a clear, compelling narrative.

Intelligent, imaginative, inspiring. A future I want to be part of.

There are hundreds of ways to explore your market, your customer and competitive context, and your business opportunities. I can already hear a collective yawn at the words Ansoff matrix or Porter 5 forces analysis. Consultants thrive on theme, MBAs survive on them.

Some will argue that the whole idea of strategic planning just doesn’t work in a world of relentless change, volatility and uncertainty. Yet in a world of incredible challenge, there is also infinite opportunity, so make choices, while retaining an agile mindset and deployment, still matters.

Don’t a slave to box-filling frameworks, but do use them to spark curiosity and creativity, to map out a path towards a future you seek, to embrace changes all around, to create a positive debate in your teams, and the courage to move forwards.

Here’s what you should, of course, know … but its always worth bringing them together, and considering which to use:

Porter’s Five Forces Model

Michael Porter’s Five Forces model is probably the best-known strategy framework out there. It is especially used when analysing industries. The Five Forces model helps determining how competitive an industry is based on five different factors: the rivalry among existing competitors, the threat of new entrants (potential competitors), the threat of substitute products (alternatives), the bargaining power of suppliers, and the bargaining power of buyers. If these forces are strong, competition can be considered high. In that case, a company might want to think twice before entering that specific industry. According to this framework, industries with little competition allow for greater margins and are therefore more attractive to enter.

Hambrick and Fredrickson’s Strategy Diamond

Unfortunately, Hambrick and Fredrickson’s Strategy Diamond hasn’t received the attention it deserves. The Strategy Diamond is an attempt to explain what strategy truly means and is a great framework to distinguish the different elements that make up a good strategy. According to this model, a strategy consist of five essential parts that together should form a unified whole: Arenas, Vehicles, Differentiators, Staging and Economic Logic. For each element concrete and deliberate choices have to be made on what to do and more importantly what NOT to do. In addition, choices made within one element should reinforce and match choices made in the other four elements. Only that way companies can achieve a sound and sustainable strategy.

 

Treacy and Wiersema’s Value Disciplines

The Value Disciplines framework builds upon the key message of Porter’s Generic Strategies (i.e. companies should have a clear focus in what they want to be known for and what they want to excel in). If a comany tries to excel in multiple (often contradicting) disciplines, it is likely to end up stuck somewhere in the middle. Treacy and Wiersema propose three value disciplines from which companies can choose from in order to become a market leader: Product Leadership (the best and most innovative product offering), Operational Excellence (the cheapest products through a cost-efficient production process), and Customer Intimacy (amazing customer service and customer relationship management). Choosing each one of the disciplines has tremendous consequences on how the company should be operating in terms of structure, processes and culture.

Ansoff Matrix

There are different ways of growing a business. Igor Ansoff identified four strategies for growth and summarized them in the so called Ansoff Matrix. The Ansoff Matrix (also known as the Product/Market Expansion Grid) allows managers to quickly summarize these potential growth strategies and compare them to the risk associated with each one. The four growth strategies are Market Penetration (offering more of the existing products to existing markets), Market Development (offering the existing products to new markets), Product Development (offering new products to existing markets) and Diversification (launching new products in new markets). The idea is that each time you move into a new quadrant (horizontally or vertically), risk increases.

BCG Growth-Share Matrix

The Boston Consulting Group’s product portfolio matrix (also known as BCG Growth-Share Matrix) is designed to help companies consider growth opportunities by reviewing its portfolio of products or business units in order to decide where to invest and where to divest. The matrix is divided into four quadrants based on two factors: market growth and relative market share. The four types of business units (or products) are Dogs, Question Marks, Cash Cows and Stars. Most business units start off as Question Marks with a relatively small market share in a high growth market. Depending on how well the unit and the industry is doing, it might end up as a Star or Dog. Eventually when industry growth is flattening, the unit becomes a Cash Cow that can be ‘milked’ in order to invest in more promising businesses. The BCG Matrix is therefore a great tool for portfolio analysis and corporate strategy purposes.

Macro-level Frameworks

Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions

Hofstede’s cultural dimensions theory is a framework for cross-cultural communication, developed by Geert Hofstede. It describes the effects of a society’s culture on the values of its members, and how these values relate to behavior, using a structure derived from factor analysis. Over the years, this study led to six cultural dimensions on which nations can be ranked: Power Distance, Individualism/Collectivism, Masculinity/Femininity, Uncertainty Avoidance, Long-term/Short-term Orientation and Restraint/Indulgence.

More information:  https://www.hofstede-insights.com/product/compare-countries/
Source: Hofstede, G. (1984). Culture’s Consequences: International Differences in Work-Related Values. Beverly Hills CA: SAGE Publications.

Porter’s Diamond of National Advantage

The Porter Diamond is a model that is designed to help understand the competitive advantage nations or groups possess due to certain factors available to them, and to explain how governments can act as catalysts to improve a country’s position in a globally competitive economic environment.

Source: Porter, M.E. (1990). The Competitive Advantage of Nations. New York: Free Press.

PESTEL Analysis

Originated as PEST Analysis, this framework is used in the early phases of strategy development to describe the landscape and environment in which a firm operates (PESTEL stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal). Note: It is sometimes transformed into SLEPIT (Social, Legal, Economic, Political, Intercultural, Technological), STEEPLE (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Legal, Ethical) and DESTEP (Demographic, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Political). This tool is especially useful when starting a new business or entering a foreign market. It is often used in collaboration with other analytical business tools such as the SWOT analysis and Porter’s Five Forces to give a clear understanding of a situation and related internal and external factors.

Industry-level Frameworks

Industry Life Cycle

Source: Porter, M.E. (1980). Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors. The Free Press

Porter’s Five Forces

Porter’s Five Forces analysis is a framework that helps analyzing the level of competition within a certain industry. It is especially useful when starting a new business or when entering a new industry sector. According to this framework, competitiveness does not only come from competitors. Rather, the state of competition in an industry depends on five basic forces: threat of new entrants, bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitute products or services, and existing industry rivalry.

Source: Porter, M.E. (1979). How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy. Harvard Business Review 

Value Net Model

The Value Net Model is an alternative to Porter’s Five Forces and recognizes the importance of competitors’ as well as complementary products in the industry. The model focuses on the four main groups that influence a company’s direct environment: Customers, Complementors, Competitors and Suppliers. Customers and Suppliers are described in similar terms to Porter’s model. Competitors however entails the Existing Rivals, New Entrants and the Substitutes in this model. The Complementors are a new element to the model.

Source: Brandenburger, A.M. & Nalebuff, B.J. (1996). Co-Opetition: A Revolution Mindset that Combines Competition and Cooperation. Crown Business.

Corporate-level Frameworks

Acquisition Integration Approaches

This framework distinguishes four different approaches to Acquisition Integration or Merger Integration depending on a company’s need for Strategic Interdependence between the acquirer and the target firm and the need for Organizational Autonomy: Preservation, Symbiosis, Holding and Absorption.

Source: Haspeslagh and Jemison (1991). Managing Acquisitions: Creating Value Through Corporate Renewal 

A.T. Kearney Strategic Chessboard

A.T. Kearney proposes four distinct strategic approaches using these two dimensions—predictability and a company’s ability to shape or adapt to its industry.

More information: http://www.atkearney.com/paper/-/asset_publisher/dVxv4Hz2h8bS/content/playing-on-the-new-strategy-chessboard/10192 or https://www.kearney.com/strategy-and-top-line-transformation/article?/a/the-a-t-kearney-strategy-chessboard
Source: A.T. Kearney (2010). Playing on the New Strategy Chessboard.

BCG Growth-Share Matrix

The BCG Matrix (also known as Boston Box) is a framework to help decision making on existing product lines. Developed in the 1970s, it has been used to evaluate how a company should think about its portfolio based on two criteria: the relative market share of a product and the market growth rate resulting in four archetypes: the Dogs, Question Marks, Stars and Cash Cows.

More information: https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/corporate_strategy_portfolio_management_strategic_planning_growth_share_matrix_bcg_classics_revisited/
Source: Henderson, B. (1970). Growth-Share Matrix. BCG Perspectives.

GE/McKinsey Matrix

The GE McKinsey Nine-Box Matrix offers a systematic approach for the decentralized corporation to determine where best to invest its cash. Rather than rely on each business unit’s projections of its future prospects, the company can judge a unit by two factors that will determine whether it’s going to do well in the future: the attractiveness of the relevant industry and the unit’s competitive strength within that industry.

More information:  http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/enduring-ideas-the-ge-and-mckinsey-nine-box-matrix
Source: McKinsey & Company (2008). Enduring Ideas: The GE–McKinsey Nine-box Matrix. McKinsey Quarterly.

McKinsey 7S Model

The McKinsey 7S Framework is a management model developed by business consultants Robert Waterman Jr. and Tom Peters in the 1980s. The 7 S’s are Structure, Strategy, Systems, Skills, Style, Staff and Shared values. The model is most often used as an organizational analysis tool to assess and monitor changes in the internal situation of an organization. The model is based on the theory that, for an organization to perform well, these seven elements need to be aligned and mutually reinforcing. So, the model can be used to help identify what needs to be realigned to improve performance, or to maintain alignment (and performance) during other types of change

More information: http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/enduring-ideas-the-7-s-framework
Source: McKinsey & Company (2008). Enduring Ideas: The 7-S Framework. McKinsey Quarterly.

Strategy Diamond

The framework (developed by Donald Hambrick and James Frederickson) puts the economic logic at the center of the analysis. Five dimensions are analyzed: Arenas, Vehicles, Differentiators, Staging and Economic logic. Strategy is about making important choices, and the real power of the Strategy Diamond is that it integrates important choices into a bigger picture instead of as a piecemeal approach.

Source: Hambrick & Fredrickson (2005). Are You Sure You Have a Strategy? The Academy of Management Executive.

Business-level Frameworks

Ansoff Matrix

There are different ways of growing a business. Igor Ansoff identified four strategies for growth and summarized them in the so called Ansoff Matrix. The Ansoff Matrix (also known as the Product/Market Expansion Grid) allows managers to quickly summarize these potential growth strategies and compare them to the risk associated with each one. The idea is that each time you move into a new quadrant (horizontally or vertically), risk increases.

Source: Ansoff, I. (1957). Strategies for Diversification. Harvard Business Review.

Bartlett and Ghoshal’s Matrix

An often used framework to distinguish multiple forms of internationally operating businesses is the Bartlett & Ghoshal Matrix (1989). Bartlett and Ghoshal clustered these businesses based on two criteria: global integration and local responsiveness. The resulting quadrants can be labelled with businesses having a: global strategy, transnational strategy, international strategy or multidomestic strategy.

Source: Bartlett, C.A. & Ghoshal, S. (1989). Managing Across Borders. The Transnational Solution. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Business Model Canvas

The excellent work by Alex Oesterwalder opens the door to companies that need to rethink their business model. It offers a practical step-by-step process to find new ways to create value and analyze a company’s current model.

More information: http://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/ or http://alexosterwalder.com/
Source: Osterwalder et al. (2004). The Business Model Ontology: A proposition in a Design Science Approach.

OLI Paradigm/Eclectic Paradigm

The OLI Paradigm is a tool that helps management choose between several foreign market entry-mode strategies such as exporting, licensing and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). According to this framework, a company needs three advantages in order to be able to successfully engage in FDI: Ownership advantage, Location advantage, Internalization advantage. If any of these advantages is not present, management might want to choose different entry-mode strategies such as exporting or licensing instead. The framework was initially developed by John Dunning in 1979 under the name Eclectic paradigm. Dunning draws upon theories such as the internalization theory and the transaction cost theory to validate his framework.

Source: Dunning (1979). Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests. Journal of International Business Studies.

Porter’s Generic Strategies

Porter’s Generic Strategies describe how a company pursues competitive advantage by positioning itself in between its rivals. There are three generic strategies for competitive advantage: Cost Leadership, Differentiationand Focus. A company chooses to pursue one of two types of competitive advantage, either via lower costs and thus a lower price or by differentiating itself along dimensions valued by customers to command a higher price. A company also chooses one of two types of scope, either focus (offering its products to selected segments of the market) or industry-wide, offering its product across many market segments. Combined these strategies offer four potential ways of companies to position themselves. Companies that try to excel in all of these ways would end up somewhere ‘stuck in the middle’, according to Porter.

Source: Porter, M.E. (1985). Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance. Harvard Business Review.

Profit Tree

The Profit Tree is a simple but very effective way to structure a company’s revenue and cost streams. It allows a company to see where improvements can be made in case of profitability issues.

 

SWOT Analysis

SWOT Analysis (Strenghts, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) is a structured method to analyze both internal and external factors that are likely to affect a company’s success. This framework needs little introduction as it has been used and overused in virtually every strategic planning discussion. It needs to be combined with the TOWS matrix  to gain additional insights.

 

Value Chain Analysis

A systematic approach to analyze your value chain, and identify where to create the greatest value for the customer.

Source: Porter (1985). Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance. Simon and Schuster.

Value Disciplines

In their book ‘The Discipline of Market Leaders‘ M. Treacy and F. Wiersema argue that no company can succeed today by trying to be all things to all people. It must instead find the unique value that it alone can deliver to a chosen market. Companies can choose between Product Leadership, Operational Excellence and Customer Intimacy.

Source: Treacy, M. & Wiersema, F. (1993). The Discipline of Market Leaders. NY: Addison-Wesley

VRIO Framework

VRIO Framework (formerly known as VRIN) is a business analysis tool that helps assessing the internal sources of sustainable competitive advantage and is therefore part of the Resource-Based View (RBV). According to this model, resources and capabilities should have four attributes that lead to sustainable competitive advantage. Resources should be Valuable, Rare, Inimitable and Organisation-wide supported: VRIO.

Source: Barney. (1995). Looking Inside for Competitive Advantage. Academy of Management Executive.

Product-level Frameworks

AIDA Model

The AIDA Model is a well-known marketing tool to help base advertising decisions on for customers in different stages of the decision-making process. In every stage marketeers will have to adapt their marketing campaigns in order to help customers move from one stage to the next.

Source: Strong, E.K. (1925). Theories of Selling. Journal of Applied Psychology.

Marketing Funnel

The Marketing Funnel is a great tool that helps visualizing the customer journey or the path that prospects take as they become more familiar with your company and products, from awareness to purchase to (hopefully) the advocacy stage.

 

Technology Adoption Life Cycle

The Technology Adoption Life Cycle describes the adoption or acceptance of a new (technological) product or innovation, according to the demographic and psychological characteristics of these 5 distinguished adopter groups.

Source: Rogers, E.M. (1962). Diffusion of Innovations. New York: Free Press of Glencoe

Product Life Cycle

The Product Life Cycle (PLC) is a marketing framework that helps visualizing and understanding the sales evolution of a product category over time.

Source: Levitt (1965). Exploit the Product Life Cycle. Harvard Business Review.

Management-level Frameworks

Blake and Mouton’s Managerial Grid

Blake and Mouton proposed a two-dimensional Managerial Grid based on a manager’s concern for production (task-oriented) and concern for people (relationship-oriented). Each axis on the grid consists of a nine-point scale with 1 meaning a low concern and 9 a high concern. Depending on a manager’s score on each of the two axis, you can assign different types of management styles to managers.

Source: Blake, R. & Mouton, J. (1964). The Managerial Grid: The Key to Leadership Excellence. Houston: Gulf Publishing Co.

 

Fiedler’s Contingency Model of Leader-Situation Matches

Fiedler believed that people’s natural leadership styles are fixed and cannot be changed (easily). The most effective way to handle the situation is to change the leader itself based on certain situational factors or to change the situation to suit the leader. Fiedler’s Contingency Model helps determining what type of leader is most suited for what type of situation.

Source: Fiedler, F.E. (1967). A Theory of Leadership Effectiveness. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Hersey and Blanchard’s Situational Leadership Styles

Hersey and Blanchard developed a theory (Hersey and Blanchard Situational Leadership Theory) that suggests that the most effective leadership style is affected by the circumstances leaders find themselves in. The model helps leaders deciding on what type of style is most effective with a certain type of follower.

Source: Hersey, P. and Blanchard, K.H. (1969). Life cycle theory of leadership. Training & Development Journal.

Kotter’s Eight Steps of Change (Management) Model

 

Sustainability is one of my big topics, and in vogue with every business, yet still lacking effective models for strategic thinking and effective implementation.

We all know the challenges. During the last 150 years, we have stressed the oceans, warmed the planet and overextended almost every natural resource. Now we live in a world of extreme challenges and consequences. Relentless financial crises. Extreme inequalities in wealth. Remorseless pressure on the environment.

Anyone can see that our economic system is broken. But can it be fixed?

• Book: “People Planet Profit: Embracing sustainability for Innovation and Growth” Free edition to download!
• Playbook: Business for a Better World by Peter Fisk, launched at the European Business Forum.
• Toolkit: 40 Business Tools with Purpose from SDG tracking and ESG scorecards to circular business models.

Here are some of the most interesting books I’ve read over the last year, seeking to curate and connect the best ideas so that I can practically help business leaders to embrace sustainability in a way that creates a better world, but also drives sustainable profitable growth and value creation.

Blue Economy 3.0: The Marriage of Science, Innovation and entrepreneurship Creates a New Business Model that Transforms Society.

Gunter Pauli describes the Blue Economy as “10 years – 100 innovations – 100 million jobs”. He rejects the green economy as too limited, but instead sets out the concept of a “Blue Economy business model” that has the potential to radically change our society from scarcity to abundance, tackling issues that cause environmental problems from new angles.  He demonstrates his vision with a new business model which he came across in China where novel paper production turns crushed rocks, including mining waste that has piled up over centuries into sheets  for printing, writing and packaging without the use of water, without cutting down a tree, and recyclable forever. It details how thistles, considered a weed, is turned into a plastic, a lubricant and a herbicide converting an old petrochemical plant into a biorefinery.

Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist

Yesterday I watched Kilian Jornet, the world’s greatest mountain runner, run slowly through the streets of Chamonix.

The 34 year old Spanish ultra runner, who is now based in Norway, because the mountains are bigger, probably took longer for his last kilometre than any of the other previous 170 kms that he’d just covered. He weaved his way through the town’s narrow streets, high-fiving the huge crowds that awaited him, and celebrated yet about “ultra” victory.

He crossed the finish line of the Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc (UTMB) in a course record of 19 hours 49 minutes, his fourth victory in the event, and the first time anyone has completed the full distance in under 20 hours.

Last month he had also won the Hardrock 100 in Colorado USA, a gruelling 100 mile trail run for the 5th time. In between, early this month he had also taken in the Sierre Zinal mountain race. And trained every day in between.

UTMB is the world’s leading mountain ultramarathon, a distance of approximately 171 km (106 miles), and a total elevation gain of around 10,040 metres (32,940 ft). Starting and finishing in Chamonix, France, it takes runners an a circular route through Switzerland and Italy, and is widely regarded as one of the most difficult foot races in the world, and one of the largest with more than 2,500 starters, although massively oversubscribed.

Born in a Pyrenean mountain hut

Kílian Jornet Burgada is a 34-year-old Catalan ultra-distance runner, and arguably the most famous, prolific, and dominant mountain athlete of all time.

He has won pretty much every major ultra race, smashed numerous endurance records, and pushed at the limits of what anyone thought was possible in the mountains.

His obsession is less about winning races or setting speed records, and more about the joy of nature, of mountains, and the challenges they provide.

“I am just a person who loves the mountains. I spend every day in the mountains,” he says, “I love them because the landscape is amazing and full of challenges but I think the mountains gives a lot back. When you are in the mountains, you feel that you are nothing. When you have nothing you have everything to discover.”

That passion stems from his childhood. He grew up in a mountain hut, in Refugi de Cap de Rec, in the Spanish Pyrenees, where his father worked as a hut keeper and mountain guide.

From a young age, he lived and breathed mountain life. “The first time I walked for five hours alone in the mountains I was two years old!” he says. He went on to climb his first 3,000m peak aged three. “I have conditioned my body to long distances from an early age!” he says.

It clearly paid off. These days he is known for dominating not one, but two mountain sports – ski mountaineering in winter and trail running in summer.

As a trail runner he’s proved himself to be one of the world’s best – dominating ultras and setting a slew of records from the Ultra Trail du Mont Blanc to the Hardrock 100 and dozens of races.

In an interview with Runners World, he says “I had a normal childhood, just that my playground was the forest and mountains instead of the streets”.

The family would spend weekends and holidays trekking and climbing local mountains. By the age of 3, he had climbed the 3,011m mountain, Tuc de Molières. At 5, he climbed the highest mountain in the Pyrenees, Aneto (3,404m). At 6, he climbed the Breithorn (4,164m) in the Italian/Swiss Alps. When he was 10, a family holiday was to hike for 42 days across the Pyrenees. By 13 he had taken up ski mountaineering, and by 16 he had joined the Spanish national ski mountaineering team.

He says the most important lesson that his parents taught him and his sister growing up was  “to be conscious that we’re a part of nature, to understand how it works and respect it.”

The world’s most prolific mountain racer

• 4x winner of the Ultra Trail du Mont Blanc
• 6x winner of the Sierre Zinal
• 5x winner of the Hardrock 100
• 9x winner of the Zegama Aizkorri
• 2019 – Golden Trail Series Champion
• 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2018 – Skyrunning World Cup Champion
• 2012, 2013, 2014 –  Ultra Running World Cup Champion
• 2014 – Vertical Kilometer World Champion
• 2014 – Skyrunning and Vertical KM World Champion
• 2008, 2011, 2013 – Skyrunning, Ultra and Vertical Kilometer European Champion

In his excellent book Run or Die, he writes “Winning isn’t about finishing in first place. It isn’t about beating the others. It is about overcoming yourself. Overcoming your body, your limitations, and your fears. Winning means surpassing yourself and turning your dreams into reality.”

“In one race I can finish first, and because it was not a competition or I wasn’t happy about my race, not feel like a winner and see after 20 hours someone reaching the finish line in 1,299th position and see he is crying of happiness to finish. This is a winner.”

Beyond Limits

Jornet sets his goals higher than most people.

After years of claiming first place at the world’s most prestigious races, he came to the realisation that he had completed all of his race goals.So, to find new ways to push himself, he started to create his own challenges.

Combining running, skiing, and climbing, he began a personal project in 2010, to set the fastest known times for ascending seven of the world’s most famous mountains. He called the challenge Summits of my Life.

The project included Kilimanjaro, Mont Blanc, Matterhorn, Denali, Aconcagua, Elbrus, and Mount Everest. A movie of his epic challenge now features on Netflix.

He summited Mount Everest at midnight (local time) on 22 May 2017. Climbing without supplemental oxygen, he reached the top in 26 hours from base camp.

Upon finishing his first ascent of Everest, and unhappy with his time of 26 hours, he found the idea of resting and recovering boring saying “I don’t like to spend time in the base camp doing nothing, so it was like ok what do we do for the next week?” On 27 May he reached the summit again from advanced base camp in 17 hours.

Training for elevation not distance

He doesn’t have a coach or a prescriptive training plan, but prefers to train in accordance with how he feels, and usually its far, twice a day, every day.

Training is a goal in itself, not something that must be done to achieve a goal. He measures his efforts not in distance, but in elevation. In a typical year, he can log up over 1,000 hours and some 55okm of elevation gain.

He sees the year in two seasons – the ski season, and the trail running season.

During the ski pre-season, November to December , he  trains between 20-30 hours a week on the slopes. He takes in 20-25 races, combined with high volume training and periods of recovery, meaning that his weekly activity can range from 10-30 hours.

From May to October, he runs.  He trains between 20-35 hours a week, typically training twice a day, and spends 80% of the seasons training running, and 20% on cycling on his road bike.

Pizza and Nutella

Eating and drinking properly play a massive part in an ultra-runner’s success, and yet he is no stranger to break-in the rules.

In a 2011 interview with Salomon, he said “my diet mainly consists of pizza and Nutella”.  More recently, he says he opts for a carb-heavy plant-based diet centred around whole foods – pasta, potatoes, bread, and a wide variety of vegetables.

His wife Emelie Forsberg is also an ultra-runner from Sweden, and also competes in ski mountaineering and skyrunning events. In 2016, they set up home in Rauma in Norway, “where the mountains are steeper, and the air is purer.” They now have two young children, who have just started running.

His books:

• Run or Die (2011)
• The Invisible Frontier (2013)
• Summits of my Life. Dreams and Challenges in the Mountain (2017)
• Nothing is Impossible (2018)
• Above the Clouds: How I Carved My Own Path to the Top of the World(2020)

Follow him:

• Kilian Jornet’s Instagram
• Kilian Jornet’s website
• Kilian Jornet’s Strava
• Kilian Jornet’s website

The percentage of women in senior leadership roles in businesses is till incredibly, unacceptably low. Not just because its clearly unfair, but also because organisations are missing out on their talents.

Only 6.6% of S&P 500 CEOs are women, which is actually a record.

For centuries, there have been broad, cultural biases against women. Some suggest women elect not to aspire to the highest levels of the organisations, but much research shows that unconscious bias plays a significant role in recruitment and promotion decisions.

New research suggests that women are perceived by their managers, particularly male, to be slightly more effective than men at every hierarchical level and in virtually every functional area of the organization. That includes the traditional male-stereotyped areas of IT, operations, and legal.

Women were rated particularly strongly at taking initiative, acting with resilience, practicing self-development, driving for results, and displaying high integrity and honesty. In fact, they were thought to be more effective in 84% of the competencies that we most frequently measure.

6.6% is actually a “record high” in the number of female CEOs on the 500 list, but female representation in business leadership is still extremely low. In her new book, CNBC Senior Media and Tech reporter Julia Boorstin delves into the astounding hurdles women have to overcome to get to the top of the business world and the leadership qualities that biased minds frown upon despite their successful track record. “The characteristics women tend to lead with are actually more effective.”

How do you make sense of today’s world of relentless, uncertain change?

Perhaps every boardroom needs a futurist in residence. Certainly, the old approach to incremental strategy development has given way to a much more creative and exploratory approach to business strategy, built around future casting, scenario planning, and agile roadmaps.

But that means it’s perhaps more important than ever for leaders to have a view of the future, to explore its possibilities, threats and opportunities – and to have a mindset which seeks to shape the future you want, rather than let it shape you.

I first met Richard Watson 22 years ago.

He’s a great guy. Intelligent, humble, and a courteous listener. He’s also incredibly thoughtful, an avid reader, a curator of everything going on – from sci-fi movies to academic whitepapers, trend analysis to media reports.

The future seemed relatively certain then. The “dotcom boom” was crashing down around us, the growing pains of the early internet, third world economies were starting to grow, and the post-communist world seemed to be stabilising into a new world order.

Now in 2022, we have more change, more uncertainty – and therefore more opportunity, I would argue – than ever before.

Richard’s trends, his perspectives on possible futures is an essential starting point for any leader, strategist or innovator. I use his work as a constant source of inspiration for strategic vision, growth and innovation workshops with leaders and their teams.

12 years ago Richard sketched a “Trends and Technology Timeline” map of the next 40 years.

It was interesting because his London Underground-inspired graphical mapping not only teased us with trends and when they might come to fruition, but more importantly challenged us with their intersections, how they might come together.

The timeline map became an icon in offices and boardrooms of companies around the world. I’ve seen life-size (2-3m high versions) of the map at Microsoft’s campus in Seattle, Russian Railways in Moscow, and DBS in Singapore!

Richard has also doodled and perfected a wide range of other maps (or thinking tools, as he calls them) too.

Here, he explains the map, during a session in London:

But now Richard has a new map for the 2020s … seeking to make sense of the patterns, fads and trends, disruptions and transformations, which are shaping our uncertain future.

Here’s his early sketch of “Terra Incognita: A Map of Current and Future Uncertainties” … and the finished map.

His thought process starts with axes which reflect the major tensions for leaders in today’s world – chaos v control, principle v profit. Of course these factors can co-exist, but forces can easily drive us to paradoxes, and in different directions.

In particular look for the critical uncertainties – something which is likely to be hugely impactful, but is also highly uncertain.

Richard’s insights and inspirations are a great starting point for developing future scenarios of your market, and your business. How might the future emerge? How do you want your future to emerge?

And here’s the final version … Terra Incognita  … print it out, pin it up, start exploring!

As an example of what to do next with a map like this, I recently worked with one of the Middle East’s fastest growing business groups. They’re in many businesses, and could grow in many directions, industrially and geographically. Where’s the growth? Where’s the risk? How should they act differently?

Future-back strategy is my favoured approach, starting with an ambitious purpose, a North Star, to give direction and substance to why the business exists, what it does for the world. From their we worked through an accelerated scenario planning approach, embracing the critical uncertainties most relevant to the business and its markets. From their we developed a vision framework which then flows into a strategic roadmap, and transformational plan for innovation and growth.

Sounds simple, but there is much to it. Not least having a powerful sense of of the future, and how you will shape it to your advantage.

Explore more about business futures, starting here.

And my new book Business Recoded: Have the courage to create a better future.

Runaway climate change and rampant inequality are ravaging the world and costing a fortune.

Who will help lead us to a better future? Business.

These massive dual challenges—and other profound shifts, such as pandemics, resource pressures, and shrinking biodiversity—threaten our very existence. Other megatrends, such as the push for a clean economy and the unprecedented focus on diversity and inclusion, offer exciting new opportunities to heal the world, and prosper by doing so. Government cannot do this alone. Business must step up.

In the excellent book Net Positive former Unilever CEO Paul Polman and sustainable business guru Andrew Winston explode fifty years of corporate dogma. Together they describe key lessons from Unilever and other pioneering companies around the world about how you can profit by fixing the world’s problems instead of creating them.

I particularly admired Polman as a CEO.

While the Dutchman led Anglo-Dutch food business Unilever, from 2009 to 2019, he set an ambitious vision to fully decouple business growth from its overall environmental footprint and increase the company’s positive social impact through the Unilever Sustainable Living Plan.

During his time, he delivered financial returns more than double that of the FTSE index.

I particularly remember the day when he stopped quarterly reporting. His business was low on confidence and creativity. It had become subservient to a relentless cycle of financial reporting, and pandering to the whims of analysts. Anything significant, strategic, longer-term which they tried to do, was rejected in favour of quick wins – sustaining the existing business model, squeezing a little more out of the old manufacturing model.

In 2018, the Financial Times called Polman “a standout CEO of the past decade.” In 2019, he created a new organization called Imagine, along with co-founders Jeff Seabright and Kees Kruythoff, to help businesses “eradicate poverty and inequality, and stem runaway climate change.”

He got together with Winston to write Net Positive. To thrive today and tomorrow, they argue, companies must become “net positive”—giving more to the world than they take.

Definition: a net positive company:

• Improves the lives of everyone it touches, from customers and suppliers to employees and communities, greatly increasing long-term shareholder returns in the process.
• Takes ownership of all the social and environmental impacts its business model creates. This in turn provides opportunities for innovation, savings, and building a more humane, connected, and purpose-driven culture.
• Partners with competitors, civil society, and governments to drive transformative change that no single group or enterprise could deliver alone.

This is no utopian fantasy. Courageous leaders are already making it real—and the stakes couldn’t be higher. With bold vision and compelling stories, Net Positive sets out the principles and practices that will deliver the scale of change and transformation the world so desperately needs.

 

Being net positive – having a positive impact on all stakeholders through the operations and products and services of the business – is the north star. It will take hard work and commitment, but the journey will be easier with the right information at hand, and solid commitments to values and purpose throughout the organization.

How Ready is Your Company for the Net Positive Journey? … Take the Readiness Test

Download the Net Positive presentation … Is the world better because your business is in it?