“I am a humble guy, I like to get things done, but I’m also very proud to have been ranked the world’s best CEO for two consecutive years”.

Pablo Isla is best known for his 17 year role as the Chairman and CEO of Inditex, the Spanish multinational clothing company that owns Zara, Pull & Bear, Massimo Dutti, Bershka, and many other brands. During that time he increased the market value of the business from around $15 to $85 billion.

This week at IE Business School in Madrid, where I lead their flagship executive program for business leaders stepping up to shape the future, I talked to him about his career, and in particular his approach to leadership, change and innovation.

Isla has just turned 60, and is a native of Madrid.  He began his career in the legal sector, working as a corporate lawyer for various firms in Spain and the United States. He joined Inditex in 2000 as the Director of Legal Services. His deep understanding of corporate law and business strategy quickly propelled him through the ranks.

In 2005, he was asked to become the new CEO of the fast fashion company which was now one of the biggest in the world. “As a in-house lawyer I learnt a lot about the business very quickly. This meant that I could take on more operational roles because of I had a joined-up view of the business”.

5 years later, Inditex founder Amancio Ortega decided to step down as chairman, and asked Isla to step up to combine the chairman and CEO roles. “This was a huge honour” he told me. “To follow in the footsteps of a legend like Ortega was incredible. I immediately seized the opportunity to take on the responsibility of leading the business into the future”.

  • He is widely praised for his strategic vision and leadership style. Under his leadership, Inditex has become one of the world’s largest and most successful fashion retailers.
  • His strategy emphasizes a fast-fashion business model, which involves quickly responding to changing fashion trends and maintaining a high turnover of inventory.
  • He is known for his hands-on approach and attention to detail. He is closely involved in all aspects of the company’s operations, from design and production to distribution and retail.
  • During his 17-year tenure at Inditex, the group’s market cap rose sixfold. In 2021, his last full year leading the retailer, Inditex generated a net profit of €3.24bn on a turnover of €27.72bn.

In 2017, Harvard Business Review recognized Pablo Isla as the world’s best-performing CEO, by Harvard Business Review. And again in 2018. HBR said that what stands out is the single word description employees use to convey Isla’s management style. Humble. It’s how his employees talk about him and how he talks of his approach that’s the most telling. He is known for rejecting a meeting culture and the use of hierarchy to command, control, and ego-feed, instead favouring making decisions informally in partnership with his people as he “manages by walking around”.

In fact Isla is so notoriously shy of being in the spotlight that he doesn’t go to his own store openings. Isla described his approach to HBR: “What we want to be relevant is the company or the store opening, and everything always is the result of the work of a team of people. The strength of our company is the combination of everybody, much more than of any single person. And I can tell you that as a company, we try to be a low-profile company, being humble, of course being very ambitious, but being humble. And if we have a big store opening, we want the store to be the relevant thing, and not any particular person.”

Humble, but also very proud to have been ranked the world’s best CEO, I can tell. “When I was ranked world’s best CEO for two consecutive years, what pleased me most was that the metrics were not just financial. They also included the contribution to the environment and society”.

We talk about the current world, and the dramatic changes we are now seeing through technology, as well as through geopolitical shifts, and much more. “I don’t worry too much about everything happening around me – the markets, the competitors, the analysts” he says. Echoing the single-minded attitude of many sports people “I focus 100% on what I am trying to achieve. Not the strategies or agendas of others. The secret of leading a business is focus, focus, focus”.

I asked him what he thought of the rapid growth of Chinese “ultra-fast fashion” online retailers, Shein and Temu. Despite reaching more people than brands like Zara, he says “I am not interested in these companies, I have not looked at them in detail”.

Where he does focus, is putting the spotlight on what is most relevant to the consumer. The core shopper lusting for a $50 pair of affordable but high-fashion high heels from Zara wants to hear about the new store in her neighbourhood, not about how in control some privileged executive is.  And he puts the spotlight on the most relevant employees – the front line store managers who are empowered to make product selections and whom he supports via a robust promote from within policy.

During his tenure as CEO, Inditex experienced significant growth and expansion. The company’s revenue and profits have consistently increased, and it has expanded its presence to over 7,000 stores in more than 90 countries.

Inditex’s success can be attributed to its innovative business model, efficient supply chain management, and focus on customer preferences. Under Isla’s leadership, Inditex has also prioritizsd sustainability and corporate social responsibility, implementing various initiatives to reduce its environmental footprint and promote ethical sourcing and labour practices.

His hands-on role as leader is very much about facilitated and inspiring teamwork. “The secret to getting things done is to give teams stretch and safety – plus confidence and courage”. He gave the example of launching Zara’s digital strategy. “The important thing was to make the right decision at the right time. It was crucial that we found somebody respected within the business to lead the project, and not to rush into a new idea which could alienate existing people or projects. We needed to ensure that digital added value to the existing business”.

And his view on leading in a world of relentless change? “Keep your eyes and ears open. Learn from everyone, not just in formal ways, but mostly informally. Read interesting articles, books. Meet new people, learn from other sectors”.

In 2022 he stepped down from Inditex, and reflected “After almost 20 years at the company I wanted to have more flexibility beyond always looking to the next quarterly report. It was time to hand over the business to the next generation, while also time for me to enjoy life more”. He has taken on a number of roles, including senior non-executive director of Nestle, an advisory role with private equity firm Cinvin, and chair of Italian clean energy company AmaraNZero.

“I have also started a film business, which I set up with two partners, and in which I love creative process”. Fonte Films is a production company seeking to revitalise the Spanish film-making sector. He talked about his deep passion for movies, and immediately started to share some of his favourites. I asked him whether he should have made this jump years ago, to combine his career with what he loves.

And then he pauses. “You know, what I really love is management” he said with all seriousness, and I believed him. “I love bringing teams of people together to solve problems, and to drive progress”.

 

This year’s Olympics were supposed to be a more inclusive and austere event, yet with the world’s largest luxury company as sponsor, they might seem like the ultimate showcase of exclusivity and wealth.

The best Moët champagne will toast the victors, as exquisitely crafted Chaumet medals are hung around their necks, by officials decked in the best of Louis Vuitton, in a sponsorship deal worth $160 million to the Olympic Organising Committee.

As LVMH described it “This global event resonates with the Group’s mission, “The Art of Crafting Dreams”. As creative partner of the Games, LVMH will play a major role by sharing the excellence and craftsmanship of its artisans for key celebratory moments throughout Paris 2024, making our Group the Artisan of All Victories.”

Olympics medals come from one of one of Paris’ most exclusive jewellers.

Conceived by the Chaumet design studio, the medals are said to convey “The Art of Crafting Dreams”. Chaumet drew inspiration from its “rich heritage, its powerfully evocative stylistic repertoire, as well as iconic symbols of France and Paris, resulting in a truly unique design that fuses tradition and modernity.”

The medals will arrive at the Olympic venue in the safety of Louis Vuitton’s most stylish luggage. While another LVMH fashion house, Berluti, is creating the uniforms that French athletes will wear during a “lavish opening ceremony on the Seine”.

Perhaps the combination of old wealth and youthful ambition is not so surprising.

Not so long ago, mass-appeal sporting events were seen as “beneath the highest-end luxury brands, which preferred to target jet-setting country-clubbers through golf, tennis, polo, sailing and Formula One.”

But in the age of social media, where athletes “seamlessly cross into the global influence market alongside pop stars and Hollywood actors,” their “reach and universal appeal has become too significant to pass up.”

Ahead of the Paris Games, Louis Vuitton sponsored a fencer and a swimmer, while Dior has backed a gymnast and a wheelchair tennis player.

LVMH’s deal “represents a delicate trade-off” as the company’s brands “cultivate a high-end image that’s potentially at odds with the idea of a toned-down Olympics.”

Changing world of LVMH

While the old world was about brand exclusivity and personal service, a boutique store on the Rue St Honoré in Paris, or Via Montenapoleone in Milan. Today’s luxury fashionistas sit online searching from their homes of Los Angeles or Shanghai.

They expect new collections as soon as they are shown in fashion shows, and personalised to their tastes. In particular the rapidly growing markets of Asia see luxury brands as a symbol of progress and status.

Bernard Arnault might be a 70-something Frenchman, but he understands this new world.

CEO of LVMH, the world’s largest luxury goods business, his personal wealth of almost $100 billion makes him the wealthiest man in Europe, and fourth richest in the world, which is not bad for an engineer who joined his father’s construction company at 22 years old.

Within a few years, Arnault already saw the world differently, persuading his father to sell the construction business and move into the real estate market. They created Férinel, a speciality vacation property business, of which he became leader in 1977, just before his thirtieth birthday. During this time, Arnault started to understand the luxury consumer, the power of brands, and how targeting premium niches could be incredibly profitable.

In 1984 he spotted an opportunity to acquire a finance company that had lost its way, but still owned some interesting assets including a rather staid and sensible Christian Dior, and department store Le Bon Marche. He quickly set about refocusing the business, and reenergising its best assets for a changing world.

The rebirth of Dior fuelled his vision and acquisition power in the luxury fashion world, and within 5 years by working with other investors, he had become the largest shareholder in the recently merged Louis Vuitton and Moet Hennesey, becoming the chairman of LVMH in 1989. The New York Times Magazine hailed Arnault a “superstar who has risen spectacularly to become head of the world’s largest luxury-goods company aged just 40”.

In the 30 years that followed, Arnault’s ambition has turned LVMH into the world’s largest luxury goods business, bringing together over 70 brands, or houses, like Givenchy and Fendi, Donna Karan and Marc Jacobs, retailers like Sephora and DFS, and jewellers Bulgari and TAG Heuer. Newer brands include Chinese red wine Ao Yun, as well as Rihanna’s Fenty Beauty range, whilst the oldest brand is wine producer Château d’Yquem, which dates its origins back to 1590.

Arnault has long realised that managing such a large and diverse portfolio requires a delicate balance of financial control and creative independence. Designers like John Galliano and the late Alexander McQueen demanded freedom to create, whilst brands in the group benefit from the long-term financial approach that can nurture brands over time, and support less profitable ones to grow stronger.

He sees LVMH as a family-business, with 4 of his 5 children working in different parts of the organisation, but also seeing all of his employees and brands as part of a long-term relationship. Indeed his motivation is much less about financial results, and much more about brand legacy, saying he is much less interested in quarterly results than he is in brand health and growth. During his leadership, however, has multiplied 20 times in value.

With rapid growth in Asia, but fairly stagnant performance in Western markets, Arnault is acutely aware of the changing global marketplace. In recent years he has accelerated online developments of each brand, often partnering with retail platforms and local businesses. He has also driven rapid growth of brand stores in major cities. With a personal fortune similar to Warren Buffett, his personal investments focus on digital businesses like Netflix and global retailers like Carrefour, keeping him tuned into a changing world.

The French billionaire likes to tell the story of how “Steve Jobs once asked me for some advice about retail, but I said, I am not sure at all we are in the same business.” However Jobs famously went on to say “You know Bernard, I don’t know if in 50 years my iPhone will still be a success but I can tell you, I’m sure everybody will still drink your Dom Pérignon.”

When someone says “grocery store,” do you instantly imagine fluorescent-lit, metal-clad buildings with soulless, towering aisles? Doing your grocery shopping is probably the least inspiring thing that you can do.

But it doesn’t have to be. What if there were stores somewhere on this planet that would stop you in your tracks to look up from your shopping list in awe and wonder?

Amazon to Buc-ee’s, Carrefour to Delhaize … Amazon continues to embed technological innovation into every aspect of its online and physical experiences, going far beyond Go. Buc-ee’s might be a gas station by definition, but is an incredible grocery store, and has just been ranked the world’s most consumer-centric brand. Carrefour redefined its entire business model around being digital first, but still a physical experience.

Whatever you think of Marks & Spencer, it’s still a great store, from the Flower Shop to Wine Shop, own-brand innovative product ranges and curated global inspirations. At Booth’s the upmarket supermarket supermarket in northern England, deli counters have been extended, hot food to go has been added and a concession partnership with the ingredients store Rafi’s Spicebox has been expanded. Customers can ask the Rafi’s employee for spice recommendations or recipe ideas, which are then paired with Booths products.

Wegmans frequently tops polls as America’s favourite grocery retailer. One of the pillars of its success is the offer of a full-service restaurant in each store, making it easier for shoppers to fit grocery shopping into their daily or weekly schedule. In addition, many of the dishes on offer are created using the Wegmans range, with the recipes available on the website or app. Stores have also been designed to resemble European open-air markets, but with extra-wide aisles and even the ability to chart a course through the store using the app or online after creating a shopping list.

Freshippo, owned by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, prides itself on catering to contemporary lifestyles by fully embracing in-store, click and collect, and delivery. The Freshippo app elevates the shopping experience greatly – scan an item and the app provides recommendations on suitable food and drink pairings and then directs customers to the suggested item in-store, sends it to the till already packed or even sends it directly to the shopper’s home.Mercardo Libre continues to diversify into superapp-style categories and dominate in Latin America. And Zingerman’s, the cult grocery and food stores from Ann Arbor, continues to have a fanatical following.

While economies are uncertain, and cost of living concerns pervade, it’s not all about price, or at least not for everyone. Latest global consumer research show that the younger and older consumers are the fastest growing segments. Young people are driven by aspiration, influence and wellness. Older people are driven by making the most of life, experiences and relationships. Which leaves the “squeezed but splurging” middle, some driven by price but still treating themselves. In general sustainability has given way to a preference for wellness, particularly amongst the young. One thing is for certain, the retail brand which tries to be average for everybody, ends up being special for nobody.

I always love a trip to Trader Joe’s when in the USA. Less of a chore, much more of an experience. I’m inspired by Coupang in South Korea, particularly its focus on technology as demonstrated by its super fast-est home delivery, and China’s incredible Pinduoduo. I love a trip to Eataly, a temple of Italian food, to buy, eat, cook, and savour. Of course, you should include q-commerce brands like Rappi, Grab and many others too as competitors, because they are in the customers eyes, offering a local convenience-driven grocery service. Or even take adjacent markets like HelloFresh and Blue Apron too.

At Edeka in Germany, even the floor tiles are working to tempt shoppers. In some stores, they advertise the availability of fresh food to go such as kebabs – and direct customers towards their whereabouts at the deli counter. Stew Leonard’s in USA takes inspiration from Disney. Singing animatronic characters, mooing cows and train sets placed overhead all play into the family-friendly ethos. “When you go shopping, you want your kids to enjoy it too,” says Chase Leonard, a third-generation member of the Leonard family.

Or if you want to see real innovation, in the most conventional grocery formats, take Spar’s flagship store in Hungary. The design, by LAB5 Architects, is as modern and as chic as it comes. If you visit here, you’ll quickly find yourself in a futuristic wooden wonderland. It feels like traversing through a space-aged cave, with wooden slats forming arches and tunnels, as well as stands for displaying goods.

Some of the most obvious trends in 2024 include:

  • Improving margins: Retailers are focusing on streamlining operations, optimising supply chains, and enhancing inventory management to improve efficiency and reduce costs
  • Smarter marketing: Retailers are leveraging their digital platforms to offer targeted advertising and promotional opportunities to brands, creating new revenue streams
  • Personalised engagement: Adoption of technologies like AI, automation, and data analytics is driving personalised customer experiences and operational enhancements
  • Healthier products: Consumers are increasingly prioritising health-conscious choices, leading to demand for organic, sustainable, and locally sourced products
  • Sustainable operations: Retailers are committing to eco-friendly practices, addressing climate change, and promoting responsible sourcing.

Challenges abound amidst uncertain economic conditions:

  • Loyalty without losses: loyalty doesn’t mean cheapest prices, people are engaged by emotions, loyalty cards are less about points collection more about special price treats, and services beyond products.
  • Space and selection: while retailers stick to good/better/best segmentation of products, curation is even more valued, a carefully chosen limited range of brands and speciality products.
  • Reducing footprint: Retailers face pressure to demonstrate genuine commitment to sustainability and reduce their environmental impact.
  • Attracting staff: The industry grapples with workforce shortages, impacting store operations and customer service, linked to a shift in skills required with increasing use of tech.
  • Resilient supplies: Disruptions in global supply chains require innovative solutions to maintain smooth operations, rethinking sourcing options, and business models.

Opportunities to embrace in 2024, as well as beyond:

  • Doing more for you: Retailers can capitalise on the rising demand for health-focused products by offering curated selections and wellness services eg pharmacy, fitness classes, nutrition advisors, often using their own trusted brand.
  • Digital-physical fusion: Combined online pre-planned and in-store top-up shopping experience, digital navigation, contactless checkouts, kerbside pick-up.
  • Personalised and predictive: Leveraging AI and other technologies can enhance productivity, improve customer experiences, and drive growth.
  • Transactional to experiential: From shopping based on transactions to experiences, more social, more destination-driven, more sensory, more participative, more gamified, more added-value.
  • Mass to micro: Personalised offerings, local sourcing, micro fulfilment centres, and community engagement create opportunities for retailers to connect with consumers.

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Welcome to the future, right now.

Superfast-gaming chips and fat-busting superdrugs, asteroid-chasing rockets and carbon-capturing technologies, 4 day working weeks and chess reinvented as a reality TV game, health-enhancing fashions and the rebirth of the hairy mammoth. Nvidia is transforming tech, while Novo Nordisk innovates healthcare, KinetX changes the space race, while Climeworks eliminates carbon.

We used to marvel at innovations with a leap of imagination. Ideas and technologies that promised to transform our world, but seemed a little out of reach. Now, science fiction has collided with practical reality, powered by mind-boggling technologies that are evolving at incredible speed, but also rapid social and cultural change, accelerating human possibilities into practice.

Next is now, not only because of the pace of innovation, but also the convergence of pathways – technologies, industries, customers, applications and expectations.

What’s happening in gaming today, shapes new experiences in retail or finance. New possibilities of space travel accelerate the evolution of EVs. Clean energy meets green cement. Pharma tech meets fashion tech. Physical and digital are one, fast developing markets outpace the old stagnated developed markets, and GenZ outthink their GenX leaders.

The future is already here, even if it’s unevenly distributed. Curiosity drives creativity, enabled by new capabilities to address the biggest challenges. So what could you do? What’s your vision of next, and how do you start now?

Colossal, the de-extinction company

Colossal Biosciences seeks to reawaken the past, to bring back extinct species, to expand endangered populations through genetic rescue, to support biodiversity. In a world pushed to the brink, Colossal is optimising conservation, exogenous development, bioinformatics, modern genetics, cellular engineering, paleogenetics, biodiversity, genomics, embryology, stem cell reprogramming, computational biology, artificial intelligence, bioethics, and de-extinction.

The Austin-based genetic engineering company, founded by geneticist George Church and entrepreneur Ben Lamb, is working to de-extinct the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, and the dodo.

Because the woolly mammoth and Asian elephant share 99.6% of the same DNA, Colossal is seeking to develop a proxy species by swapping enough key mammoth genes into the Asian elephant genome. Key mammoth genealogical traits include: a 10cm layer of insulating fat, five different types of shaggy hair, and smaller ears to help the hybrid tolerate cold weather.

Colossal launched as a fully-fledged business in 2021, with a mission to preserve endangered animals through gene-editing technology and use those same animals to reshape the world’s natural ecosystems to combat climate change.

Colossal’s lab will pair CRISPR/Cas9 with other DNA-editing enzymes, such as integrases, recombinases, and deaminases, to splice woolly mammoth genes into the Asian elephant. The company plans on sequencing both elephant and mammoth samples in order to identify key genes in both species to promote population diversification. By doing so, Colossal hopes to prevent any rogue mutations within the hybrid herd.

Back in a 2008 interview with The New York Times, George Church first expressed his interest in engineering a hybrid Asian elephant-mammoth by sequencing the woolly mammoth genome. In 2012, Church was part of a team that pioneered the CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing tool, through which the potential for altering genetic code to engineer the envisioned “mammophant” surfaced. He presented a talk at the National Geographic Society in 2013, where he mapped out the idea of Colossal.

Church and his genetics team used CRISPR to copy mammoth genes into the genome of an Asian elephant in 2015. That same year, his lab integrated mammoth genes into the DNA of elephant skin cells; the lab zeroed in on 60 genes that experiments hypothesized as being important to the distinctive traits of mammoths, such as a high-domed skull, ability to hold oxygen at low temperatures, and fatty tissue. By 2017 it had successfully added 45 genes to the genome of an Asian elephant.

While Colossal’s de-extinction business might seem like science fiction, the latest movie from Jurassic Park, it echoes the progress by companies like CRISPR Therapeutics in Zurich, led by Nobel prize winner Jennifer Doudna, who applying the same science to humans. With all the same technical and ethical challenges which it brings. It also demonstrates how rapidly ideas of fiction are now becoming reality.

Innovations enabled by incredible technologies

The new Big Ideas report by ARK Invest captures the disruptive impact of technologies right now. It suggests that by 2030, the convergence of 5 significant technologies, accelerated by artificial intelligence, will have an unprecedented economic impact. AI provides the “intelligent glue” to bring together the potential of public blockchains, multigenomic sequencing, energy storage, and robotics, in a way that could transform global economic activity more significantly than any previous industrial revolution.

Globally, real economic growth could accelerate from 3% on average during the past 125 years to more than 7% during the next 7 years as robots reinvigorate manufacturing, robotaxis transform transportation, and AI amplifies knowledge worker productivity.

As a result the global equity market value specifically associated with disruptive innovation could increase from 16% of the total to more than 60% by 2030, resulting in annualised equity returns of 40%, or increasing the total market capitalisation driven by disruptive tech from $19 trillion today to roughly $220 trillion by 2030.

The Future Possibilities Index 2024 also explores the applications of these fast-emerging tech, and how they will shape new economies. It focus on 6 transformational trends that are creating possibilities and the factors that determine our readiness and capacity to leverage these trends over the next 5-10 years. All have emerged from a combination of new business models, technologies, and changes in attitudes and behaviours. The six trends are the Exabyte Economy, the Wellbeing Economy, the Net Zero Economy, the Circular Economy, the BioGrowth Economy and the Experience Economy.

Fast Company’s latest ranking of the world’s Most Innovative Companies 2024 showcases some of the most exciting innovators who are both driving this tech acceleration, and embracing its benefits. While BCG also produces an innovation ranking each year, quantitatively evaluating the R&D efforts of corporations, the FC version is far more insightful, about the people driving the innovations, and the solutions that are emerging.

This year’s #MIC24 ranking includes:

  • Nvidia is riding a wave of warp-speed AI progress, having lagged far behind Intel for decades, Jensen Huang’s $1.5 trillion business which he founded in 1993 on his 30th birthday, leapt ahead of tech monoliths like Alphabet and Amazon in recent months, driven by the rush for high-powered immersive gaming, and the relentless growth of AI.
  • Novo Nordisk found in its latest diabetes drug Ozempic, an obesity-busting sensation, that together with its lower dosage sister-brand Wegovy, has taken the world by storm. The Danish pharma business can’t make enough of it, and has soared to become Europe’s most valuable company, and more valuable than Denmark’s entire GDP.
  • Perplexity is creating an entirely new way to search the web, by leveraging AI to provide more contextualised and accurate answers, rather than a list of relevant links. It uses a combination of homegrown large language models (LLMs) and third-party models (like OpenAI’s GPT-4) plus retrieval-augmented generation (RAG).
  • KinetX helped navigate a spacecraft on a 4.4 billion-mile mission to land on an asteroid and return home. Founded in 1992 as a spinoff of Lockheed Martin, it is partnering NASA on deep-space missions like New Horizons (to Pluto, then the edge of the solar system) and Messenger (orbiting Mercury for the first time).
  • Climeworks uses direct air capture to scrub carbon from the atmosphere. It operates the world’s largest DAC plants, both in Iceland, which remove around 10,000 tons of CO2 from the atmosphere every year—and about half of that is being done by the Zurich-based DAC pioneer.

Innovations enabling radically better lives

The new Global 50 Opportunities report by Dubai Future Foundation takes a global perspective on the innovative applications emerging from a rapidly changing world, partly driven by technologies, but much more too.

It starts by exploring the megatrends which it sees as most influential right now, and then how these are unlocking 50 opportunities for future growth, prosperity and well-being. Some opportunities may be in their early days of exploration, some require reflection, and some feel very far away. “Shaping the future cannot be done by just waiting for it but rather by utilizing the latest technologies and knowledge tools and meeting its challenges starting from today.”

The 8 megatrends include materials revolution (from which opportunities emerge like 3d printing of human organs, green plastics, and fashion with embedded health benefits), future humanity (school for wisdom, open source science, and flipping career ladders), and advanced health (mental AI, pulse over pills, and biohacking 2.0). These are just a few examples (dive into the digital report to explore the opportunities in more detail):

 

100 Reasons to Love the Future is a fabulous new report from AXA’s foresight team, promising “new narratives of hope” and inspiring us to “imagine utopia rather than retreat to dystopia”. The report argues that in a world of escalating risks, our societies and economies cannot afford to become paralysed by uncertainty. We are all living through a deep transformation. Far better to embrace it than retreat into anxiety and doubt.

In the midst of the 100 reasons is a great insight from Plurality University about what organisations could look like in 2050 – from  the Marketrix to the Reactivator, the Enterpocine and the Zombinc. There’s also a great insight about Te Korekoreka, and navigating futures with Māori Wisdom. The New Zealand initiative uses social innovation to achieve equity in education, employment, and income for Māori people. And much more, a great report!

Take another look at Fast Company’s Most Innovative Companies 2024 list, and beyond the big names like Nvidia you will find a wealth of smaller companies making significant human impacts, harnessing tech for good, rather than just for tech. Yet the new tech capabilities are incredible, providing new ways to solve some of the biggest problems; while also shaping cultures through exponential social influence; and enabling people to access, and do, what they could never before:

  • Solfácil the Brazilian solar investment company is bringing solar power to people living in the Amazon, and has financed approximately $450 million in solar loans, working with more than 4,250 active solar installers and has 66,000-plus customers to date.
  • 4 Day Week Global convinced companies around the world to adopt a shorter work week, the nonprofit brought together hundreds of companies to create a post-pandemic revolution in the workplace, encouraged by its research which showed that a 4 day week delivered an average 36% rise in revenue.
  • Chess.com is turning a centuries-old game into must-see reality TV. The freemium chess platform logged more games played (12.5 billion) than ever before, while establishing itself as the game’s cultural hub, full of everything from news to memes to the best Twitch streamers.
  • Sea Forest, a Tasmanian business which scooped the 2023 Earthshot Prize, has a seaweed supplement to stop cows from burping up methane. It is the first company in the world to farm methane-busting Asparagopsis, a red seaweed native to Australian coastal waters, reducing methane production by up to 90%.
  • Mattel took its 65 year old Barbie dolls and turned the brand into a $1.4 billion global movie blockbuster, the highest grossing film of 2023, with a series of agenda-setting messages not just saccharine sassiness, and became a cultural event that attracted diverse audiences, plus all types of pink-coloured spinoffs.

So while the world of technology is complex and relentless, with profound questions about ethics and humanity, our rapidly changing world can also be deeply human, sometimes frivolous, sometimes profound.

The opportunities to innovate are everywhere. And while average, old markets might seem to have stagnated, the world continues to move forwards at incredible pace. We have huge challenges, where issues like climate change will only be conquered with radical new thinking, and enabled by new technologies.

We also have an opportunity to create a happier, healthier world. Embrace utopia, don’t retreat to dystopia. By jumping to the future we can see problems differently, the impossible becomes possible, and we can accelerate progress.

Next is now. There is only ever today. Let the future begin.

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The high octane world of corporate boardrooms making billion-dollar decisions, and entrepreneurial start-ups obsessed with getting there, is rife for movie-making. And indeed some of the most thrilling movies of recent years are also stories of business, how they soared and sometimes fell, and the personalities behind them.

Here’s my pick of the best business movies, each worthy of an MBA class:

Air … the story of Nike’s Air Jordan

Exploring the partnership between a then rookie Michael Jordan and Nike’s fledgling basketball division which revolutionised the world of sports and contemporary culture with the Air Jordan brand. This moving story follows the career-defining gamble of an unconventional team with everything on the line, the uncompromising vision of a mother who knows the worth of her son’s immense talent, and the basketball phenom who would become the greatest of all time (Warner Bros, 2023).

The Aviator … the story of TWA

The Aviator tells the story of Howard Hughes,  a wily industrialist, glamorous movie producer and unstoppable American innovator – but thought of himself first and foremost as an aviator. In this spectacular epic, director Martin Scorsese focuses on the most prolific period in the life of Hughes: the mid-1920s through the 1940s. It was a time of brilliant aeronautical invention, turbulent love affairs and savage corporate battles. (2004)

The Billion Dollar Code … the story of Google Earth

Two German computer pioneers who go to court in the fight against an apparently invincible opponent in order to be recognized as the inventor of the Google Earth algorithm. The series illuminates both the hacker scene in post-reunification Berlin in the 90s, as well as the idealistic world of early Silicon Valley and the harsh reality of a multi-million dollar process. (2021).

The Big Short … the story of investment banking

“You smell that? What is that?… “Your cologne? … No … Opportunity … No. Money” … When four outsiders saw what the big banks, media and government refused to, the global collapse of the economy, they had an idea: The Big Short. Their bold investment leads them into the dark underbelly of modern banking where they must question everyone and everything. Based on the true story and best-selling book by Michael Lewis. (Paramount, 2016)

The Founder … the story of McDonald’s

Starring Michael Keaton as businessman Ray Kroc, the film depicts the story of his creation of the McDonald’s fast-food restaurant chain, which eventually involved forcing out the company’s original founders to take control with conniving ruthlessness (2016).

An Inconvenient Sequel … the story of climate change

A decade after An Inconvenient Truth brought climate change into the heart of popular culture, comes the follow-up that shows just how close we are to a real energy revolution. Al Gore continues his tireless fight traveling around the world training an army of climate champions and influencing international climate policy. Cameras follow him behind the scenes, in moments both private and public, funny and poignant, as he pursues the inspirational idea that while the stakes have never been higher, the perils of climate change can be overcome with human ingenuity and passion. (Paramount, 2017)

The Inventor … the story of Theranos

The Inventor chronicles the rise and fall of Theranos, interspersed with footage of Holmes and her COO Sunny Balwani making grandiose proclamations about Theranos and the value it was providing. It also includes visual flashbacks to the era of Thomas Edison, the titular Inventor who famously failed repeatedly before finally succeeding; Theranos’s miniature blood testing labs were called “Edisons”. In 2022 Holmes was convicted of defrauding investors, and sentenced to serve 11 years in prison. (HBO, 2019).

Moneyball … the story of Oakland Athletic

The story of Oakland Athletic, based on book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis. It is the baseball team’s 2002 season and their general manager Billy Beane’s attempts to assemble a competitive team. In the film, Beane, played by Brand Pitt, is faced with the franchise’s limited budget for players, build a team of undervalued talent by taking a sophisticated analytical approach to scouting for the best talent.

The Playlist … the story of Spotify

At the height of piracy, established heavy-hitters were fighting against where the turbulent music industry was heading. The series centers around young Swedish tech entrepreneur, Daniel Ek, and his partners, who revolutionized a whole industry by offering free and legal streamed music around the world. (Netflix 2022)

Seaspiracy … the story of unsustainable fishing

11,000 to 30,000 sharks are killed by humans every hour of every day, totally around 4.5 million a year. Almost half are killed as bycatch and discarded back into the ocean. Seaspiracy examines the global fishing industry, challenging notions of sustainable fishing and showing how human actions cause widespread environmental destruction. (Netflix, 2021)

The Smartest Guys in the Room … the story of Enron

The film examines the 2001 collapse of the Enron Corporation, which resulted in criminal trials for several of the company’s top executives; it also shows the involvement of the Enron traders in the California electricity crisis. The film features interviews with McLean and Elkind, as well as former Enron executives and employees, stock analysts, reporters and the former Governor of California Gray Davis. (2005)

The Social Network … the story of Facebook

The tale of a new breed of cultural insurgent: a punk genius who sparked a revolution and changed the face of human interaction for a generation, and perhaps forever. Shot through with emotional brutality and unexpected humour, this superbly crafted film chronicles the formation of Facebook and the battles over ownership that followed upon the website’s unfathomable success. (Sony, 2010)

Steve Jobs … the story of Apple

Set backstage at three iconic product launches and ending in 1998 with the unveiling of the iMac, Steve Jobs takes us behind the scenes of the digital revolution to paint an intimate portrait of the brilliant man at its epicenter.  Michael Fassbender plays Steve Jobs, the pioneering founder of Apple, with Kate Winslet starring as Joanna Hoffman, former marketing chief of Macintosh.

Super Pumped … the story of Uber

The ambitious CEO Travis Kalanick of ride-hailing app Uber tries to turn a struggling startup into a tech titan amid massive scandals, and is ultimately ousted in a boardroom coup.  The series embodies the highs and lows of a Silicon Valley start-up. (2022).

WeCrashed ... the story of WeWork

Inspired by actual events, and the love story at the centre of it all. WeWork grew from a single co-working space into a global brand worth $47 billion in under a decade. Then, in less than a year, its valuation dropped $40 billion. What happened? Starring Jared Leto as Adam Neumann, Anne Hathaway as Rebekah Neumann and Kyle Marvin as Miguel McKelvey.

And a few great videos …

The Joy of Stats …  by Hans Rosling

The late Hans Rosling’s famous lectures combined enormous quantities of public data with a sport’s commentator’s style to reveal the story of the world’s past, present and future development. He explored stats in a way he has never done before – using augmented reality animation. In this spectacular section of ‘The Joy of Stats’ he tells the story of the world in 200 countries over 200 years using 120,000 numbers – in just four minutes. Plotting life expectancy against income for every country since 1810, he shows how the world we live in is radically different from the world most of us imagine. (BBC, 2011)

Brené Brown studies human connection, our ability to empathise, belong, love. She is an American professor, social worker, author, and podcast host, known for her work on shame, vulnerability, and leadership, In a poignant, funny talk at TEDxHouston, she shares a deep insight from her research, one that sent her on a personal quest to know herself as well as to understand humanity. (TED, 2011)

Is this how our story is due to end?” … by Sir David Attenborough

In an electrifying speech delivered at the opening of the World Leaders Summit on Climate Change (COP26) in Glasgow, Attenborough gave a message of hope on behalf of the world that through action, we will witness the recovery of the natural world. But his warning of what will follow should we fail to act was also clear and stark. His speech was illustrated with stunning, cinematic pictures shown on giant screens behind him, produced by Silverback Films.

 

Looks Aren’t Everything … by Cameron Russell

The supermodel admits she won “a genetic lottery”: she’s tall, pretty and an underwear model. A Victoria’s Secret favorite, she has appeared in multiple international editions of Vogue as well as in ads for brands like Ralph Lauren and Benetton. But she feels at her core that image isn’t everything. But don’t judge her by her looks. In this fearless talk, she takes a wry look at the industry that had her looking highly seductive at barely 16-years-old.

Grit: The power of passion and perseverance … by Angela Duckworth

Leaving a high-flying job in consulting, Angela Duckworth took a job teaching math to seventh graders in a New York public school. She quickly realized that IQ wasn’t the only thing separating the successful students from those who struggled. Here, she explains her theory of “grit” as a predictor of success.

The Puzzle of Motivation … by Dan Pink

Dan Pink examines the puzzle of motivation, starting with a fact that social scientists know but most managers don’t: Traditional rewards aren’t always as effective as we think. Listen for illuminating stories, and maybe, a way forward. Dan Pink is the former speechwriter to Al Gore. His books include A Whole New Mind on why right-brainers will rule the future, and Drive exploring the surprising truth about what motivates us.

Dare to Disagree … by Margaret Heffernan

Most people instinctively avoid conflict, but as Margaret Heffernan shows us, good disagreement is central to progress. She illustrates (sometimes counterintuitively) how the best partners aren’t echo chambers — and how great research teams, relationships and businesses allow people to deeply disagree. (TED,  2012)

As the human population continues to grow, so does our impact on the environment. In fact, recent research has shown that three-quarters of Earth’s land surface is under pressure from human activity. In this short film, spoken word artist Prince Ea makes a powerful case for protecting the planet and challenges the human race to create a sustainable future. (National Geographical, 2017).

The book publishing industry is in a bind.

While the world changes – as digital platforms transform every other industry, as new generations engage in new ways, as the sources of value are rapidly upturned – the world of books continues to dismiss the need for real change.

Maybe technology can automate some of the slowest processes, maybe AI can improve production efficiency, maybe tweaks can reduce waste and improve sustainability, but most publishers still like books – ideally 300 pages, black and white, standardised format, hard back.

Of course there is a cultural love of printed books, the antiquated romance of literature, the refuge of an old book shop, the comfort of a physical tome. And, in fact, more books were sold across the world than ever before.

But it’s a pure fantasy to assume this can be the future.

All around, every industry has changed. 25 years ago, platforms like Amazon and Netflix challenged the old world of retail and entertainment. Now they are the establishment.

In a world of smartphone primacy … where payments are a digital click, retail is gamified entertainment, pizzas are delivered in minutes, events are personal and immersive, relationships are social, and influence is communal … isn’t it time for books to innovate?

The publishing world, more generally, woke up long ago.

News is live across multiple channels, movies are on demand, advertising is programatic. Time Magazine to Rolling Stone are delivered by monthly download, with daily updates. Many young people have never even watched a scheduled TV program, or read a newspaper.

Book publishing requires more than tweaks to its old model. Tweaks to reduce costs, increase speed, embrace social, are just tweaks. Diminishing returns in an outdated world.

Publishers need new business models

New business models are the most effective way to transform organisations, to innovate the whole way in which the business works. Inspired by a new generation of businesses – Airbnb to Uber, Revolut to Netflix – we see dramatically new business models in every market, through collaborative platforms, data analytics and personal recommendations, or subscription-based payments.

Airbnb makes money by helping you to make money out of your spare room, connecting host and guest, then taking a small fee from each. Nespresso makes great coffee, selling discounted machines, and then getting you to sign up to an everlasting and incredibly profitable direct revenue steam of coffee pods.

What if your business started leasing rather than selling, became part of the sharing economy? What if you simply facilitated an exchange between buyers and sellers and took a cut? How about moving to a subscription model, or a freemium model, or a referral model, or an advertising model?

The term “Business Model” is over used and under defined. Business models explain how organisations work – how do they create value for customers, and in doing so how they create value for all other stakeholders. They can map the current business, or explore options for the future.

The approach originates from mapping “value networks” in the 1990s, understanding the systems across business and its partners through which value (both financial and non-financial) is created and exchanged – by who, how and for whom. I remember working with Pugh Roberts to create a multi-million dollar dynamic model for Mastercard which showed varying any one driver – such as interest rates, or branding – affected everything else. And thereby being able to test new ideas and optimise the model.

Business models represent the dynamic system through which a business creates and captures value, and how this can changed or optimised. They are a configuration of the building blocks of business, and their creative reconfiguration can be a significant innovation.

Business models became fundamental to business strategy, driven by them but often driving them. Hambrick and Fredrickson’s Strategy Diamond is all about aligning the organisation, achieving an economic logic between strategic choices. They help to align the business, matching the right strategies for outside and inside, using the proposition as the fulcrum, and profitability as the measure of success.

Business models can often appear very mechanical, lacking emotion and easy to imitate. In 2001 Patrick Staehler, in particular seeking to explain the new breed of digital businesses, created a business model “map” driven by the value proposition, enabled by the value architecture, creating economic value and sustained by cultural values. The last point here is most interesting, in that it captured the distinctive personality of a business, its leadership styles and ways of doing business. This is much harder to copy, and also sustains the other aspects.

Alex Osterwalder’s subsequent Business Model Canvas emerged as the most common template on which to map a business model. He popularised the approach so much so that his supersized canvas now features in workshops throughout the world, always with an array of multi coloured sticky notes as teams debate the best combination of solutions for each box. Whilst the canvas lacks the sophistication of value driver analysis and dynamic modelling, it is about testing hypothesise in each aspect, and how they could work together, and that respect works as a thinking model.

Business models have become a practical tool for rethinking the whole business, seeing the connections and then innovating the business. In fact they offer a great platform to facilitate new strategy and innovation thinking. That’s why we’ve created the Business Innovation Program, which combines design thinking, new business models and strategic implementation – a great way to engage your team, to think about new ways to grow, and to create the future, practically.

We explore at least 50 different business model templates which could transform your business. We start with the customer, to explore emergent needs and behaviours, shaping better propositions and solutions, then exploring how to deliver them commercially, and as engaging customer experiences.

Here are some examples from other areas of publishing. This is by no means an exhaustive list, as the variations are infinite, and may involve components of multiple examples:

The Paid Content Publisher: Subscriptions or micropayments

  • Targets the loyal, demanding consumer who values the objective and relevant content that top news outlets produce
  • Examples: The Economist in media publishing, Blinklist in digital book summaries.
  • They are clearly the world leaders with the highest credibility, coverage and loyalty from their audiences. Through various forms of payment for content they have been able to sustain their business model. Only those with good quality journalism and community engagement are able to survive with this model.

The People’s Publisher: Crowdfunding

  • Targets the consumer who is willing to fund media companies with negative balances, supporting their clear independence and good quality, credible content.
  • Examples: Unbound in book publishing, The Guardian in media publishing.
  • This business model is recommended for kick-starting a business or a specific
    project, with a goal of then achieving sustainability through another model such as advertising or subscriptions. Only in very well developed economies will this model be able to grow. Regulatory restrictions still limit the use of crowdfunding.

The Self Publisher: Author published

  • Targets consumers who are highly segmented, and in a database built up by the author already, without the need for publisher brand endorsement
  • Examples: Amazon Kindle, Apple Books
  • These platforms have a a DIY platform to enable authors to develop, format, prepare, and produce their books for significantly lower fees. It may include hybrid models which can involve freelance designers, copywriters, being part of the process. The platform may then also distribute the book to its audience, for a relatively minimal fee.

The Custom Publisher: On demand, asset based

  • Targets specialist audiences who only want to buy specific content (eg individual chapter, or entity), or want it customised in some way specific to them (eg personal name inserted, corporate branded etc)
  • Examples: Publishers House,
  • These platforms are often linked to self publishing, but could work for any book. The concept of buying a book by a chapter, or selection of chapters unto the full price of the book can work well in technical subjects. Print on demand technologies in general, allow publishers to access their huge back catalogues of content and titles, without having them preprinted and stored. Also to print on location, to avoid shipping.

The Retailer Publisher: Vertical, ecommerce

  • Targets consumers who are highly segmented due to their needs and profile and who are willing to satisfy their purchase needs with the portfolio of products / services offered.
  • Examples: Monocle in media publishing, Net-a-Porter in fashion publishing
  • These companies have clearly focused on a niche audience with both content
    and exclusive and attractive offers, which has increased the purchase intent for their products and captured the advertisers’ interest. With the gradual increase of e-commerce in the retail market, more companies will have to develop this model, independently or through partnerships. A deep understanding of their audiences is a must to survive with this model.

The Events Publisher: Events, experiences

  • Targets consumers attracted by the quality and credibility of the brand and their resulting events
  • Examples: Ascential in events publishing (Cannes Lions etc), Live Nation in music
  • These companies have consolidated the development of events of all their brands into a single area for the sale of tickets and sponsorships or have opted to create independent business units aligned with the growing interest of the consumer in actively participating in new experiences. These events also generate new content, data that feeds databases and become positive influencers for their brands. This model could represent 20 per cent of total revenues with good brand partnerships and with the right management team.

The Community Publisher: Clubs, membership

  • Targets consumers who, through subscription packages, not only access editorial products, but attractive discounts in a broad portfolio of products and services. The annual subscription could be recovered through accessing these discounts.
  • Examples: The Atlantic in sports publishing, Future in media publishing (eg Americas Test Kitchen)
  • All these companies have generated a robust list of benefits so that subscribers have preferential access to relevant events, premieres and discounts across a wide range of services. It requires a proactive telemarketing strategy to make sure that the club members are satisfied and loyalty prevails.

The Advertising Publisher: Advertising, branded content

  • Targeting interested advertisers to build and distribute relevant messages associated with their brands and the needs of the audiences
  • Examples: Quartz, British Airways High Life
  • These companies are among the few that still survive with robust models dependent on advertising, due to their high segmentation and profiling of their audiences which capture sophisticated audiences.

The Agency Publisher: Selling brand content

  • Targeting advertisers who do not have the capacity to contract creative agencies to create advertising pieces for their audiences.
  • Examples: 23stories by Condé Nast, CNBC Catalyst
  • Taking advantage of their content creation potential, these companies have built creative and editorial teams to design 360 marketing campaigns and branded content production for advertisers, that can be disseminated through their media portfolio. It requires leveraging the competency of the marketing team to be able to compete against traditional ad agencies with cost-effective strategies and excellent service level agreements.

The Database Publisher: Data broker

  • Targeting advertisers who want to increase their effectiveness in advertising campaigns with databases generated from the media companies’ audiences.
  • Examples: ProPublica (US), Schibsted (Norway)
  • With the emergence of programmatic advertising, it becomes increasingly important to have your own data, to be able to take advantage of them internally but also to offer them to third parties to increase the effectiveness of your marketing campaigns. Classified ads and verticals are also an excellent vehicle to enlarge databases with more relevant audience information.

The Licensing Publisher: Innovating services

  • When the intangible value of the brand is high, it is worth taking advantage of this to license the brand in other related products or services, and thus obtain other related sources of income
  • Examples: Disney, National Geographic
  • All these brands enjoy great recognition, credibility and acceptance by their audiences. By developing new products and services with this seal of quality, they can generate additional income. In most countries, media companies have a good brand awareness and acceptance; an intangible asset that can be wisely used to enlarge revenue sources with complementary businesses.

The IT Publisher: Selling software

  • When internal IT development has proved to be effective, media companies can offer consulting and IT licensing services to their industry peers to increase their operational efficiency.
  • Examples: The Washington Post with ARC
  • Unfortunately, not many media companies have the capability to offer these types of services. This model requires developing a business-oriented and a consultative selling and consulting culture in the IT team to provide these services to internal and external customers.

The Investor Publisher: Launching a fund

  • When you want to invest in other promising and emerging businesses in exchange for advertising
  • Examples: Thomson Reuters
  • Through alliances with other companies in the same sector, these companies
    have created specialized funds to invest in emerging media businesses. It is crucial to have a well developed private equity fund community that can serve as partner for media companies to correctly assess the deal flow and make the right choices.

I love running workshops for all kinds of business challenges – from design sprints to innovation summits, boardroom visioning to strategic decision making, leadership development and team building – or sometimes a mixture of all these together. I’ve run them across the world, from Singapore to Seattle, Jeddah to Jo’burg, from 10-person board meetings to 1000-person events.

While the content and format needs to be tuned to the audience and objectives, there are some factors which are essential in every kind of workshop:

  • human ingenuity … people, at every level, need to be engaged, inspired, and encouraged to participate, creating a space and energy to share fragile ideas with confidence, and to build on them positively.
  • practical resources … brainstorms are probably the least effective technique to generate new thinking, and there are 100s more tools to drive useful, meaningful outcomes.
  • effective structure … workshops are journeys, they need context and purpose, a starting point, to open up and then stretch, to build momentum, and to close down, to have a conclusion and deliverables.
  • intelligent facilitation … while everyone brings their ideas and opinions, they need stimulus and challenge, connection and interpretation, which requires intelligent facilitation, not just a flipchart scribe.

What I’ve found is that workshops need all these factors. And if you combine a learning and delivering experience – be driven by real issues, add new research and education, add new tools which people can use themselves, add expertise and challenge, and ensure that the delivery will have a real impact for the organisation – then workshops can be turning points in the progress and impact of organisations, teams and people.

Below are some of the most useful resources which I use, both developed myself over the last 30 years running workshops with teams all over the world, and from a wide range of expert partners:

Future Lab is a structured facilitation process for workshops, or sometimes a series of workshops to develop new ideas, strategies, innovation and more, combining clear structure with embedded tools.

Gamechanger Labs are a portfolio of 16 business canvases, or templates, to explore the future of your business – from vision and strategy to insights and innovation, to leadership and culture, based on Peter Fisk’s best-selling “Gamechangers”.

Sitra Futuremakers Toolbox from the Finnish government innovation fund, helps you recognise trends and emerging phenomena, imagine alternative futures and link your future-oriented thinking to change-making.

Strategyzer Toolkit with some of the best ideas, learnings and methods from Alex Osterwalder and his team, most famous for the business model canvas, to help you further your understanding and practice of innovation.

IDEO Design Kit. Human-centered design is a step-by-step guide from David Kelley and the IDEO team  to unleashing your creativity, putting the people you serve at the center of your design process to come up with new answers to difficult problems.

Design Method Toolkit is a comprehensive resource for designers of all levels, providing a well-organised and easy-to-use overview of the human-centred design process, from research to creation.

The Hyper Island Toolbox is a collection of methods and activities that focus on experiential learning, collaboration, and real-world problem-solving.

XPlane Change Toolkit, the visual sense-making company established by Dave Grey is known for producing fabulous  infographics that interpret complexity in smart and simple ways, and now offers a wide range of worksheets

BOI Innovation Toolkit brings together more perspectives on business innovation, including some great case studies, and also a range of tools to make the case for radical change.

Circular Business Design Guide helps business leaders identify circular opportunities and design business models that create, deliver and capture value in ways that also benefit society and the environment.

The Atlassian Team Playbook is a  collection of workshop resources that help teams work better together. It includes a variety of tools and activities to improve communication, collaboration, and problem-solving.

Nesta DIY Toolkit is more specifically for public-sector organisations, governments and agencies, starting with a flowchart to show how the many tools fit together. It’s designed for public-sector, but actually works for any kind of organisation.

Business Futures Project brings over 300 resources together to help you build a better future, from the best books and articles to case studies and reports, tools and templates, videos and much more.

AI will have a fundamental impact on every industry, and every economy, over the next decade, says a new report from ARK Invest

ARK’s Big Ideas 2024 report is entitled “Disrupting the Norm, Defining the Future” and it highlights 15 big ideas:

  • Technological Convergence – The global equity market value associated with disruptive innovation could increase to 60% by 2030.
  • Artificial Intelligence – Scaling global intelligence and redefining work: AI training costs should continue to fall 75% per year.
  • Smart Contracts – Powering the internet-native financial system, smart contract networks could generate fees of $450bn in 2030.
  • Digital Wallets – Digital wallets could grow select vertical software platforms’ revenues to $27-$50bn in 2030.
  • Robotics – Generalizing automation, thanks to the convergence of AI software and hardware. Generalizable robotics represent a $24 trillion-plus global revenue opportunity.
  • Digital Consumers – Transitioning toward digital leisure, where spending could teach $23 trillion in 2030.
  • Electric Vehicles – Lower battery costs powering adoption mean EV sales could reach 74 million in 2030.
  • Robotaxis – Robotaxi platforms could create $28 trillion in enterprise value in 2030.
  • Multiomic Tools & Technology – Translating biological insights into economic value: R&D spending could decline by more than 25%, thanks to multiomic tools and technology.
  • Reusable Rockets – Satellite connectivity revenues could exceed $130bn per year in 2030.
  • Autonomous Logistics – Global autonomous delivery revenue could reach $900bn by 2030.
  • Bitcoin Allocation – Growing the role of bitcoin in investment portfolios. During the last seven years, bitcoin’s annualized return has averaged around 44%.
  • Bitcoin in 2023 – After challenges in 2022, bitcoin’s price surged 155% last year, reaching $827 billion in market cap.
  • Precision Therapies – Curing disease more efficiently and less expensively. The enterprise value of companies focused on precision therapies could reach $4.5 trillion by 2030.
  • 3D Printing – Revenues could grow 40% at an annual rate to $180bn by 2030.

The report believes that convergence among disruptive technologies will define this decade. Five major technology platforms—Artificial Intelligence, Public Blockchains, Multiomic Sequencing, Energy Storage, and Robotics—are coalescing and should transform global economic activity.

Technological convergence could create tectonic macroeconomic shifts more impactful than the first and second industrial revolutions. Globally, real economic growth could accelerate from 3% on average during the past 125 years to more than 7% during the next 7 years as robots reinvigorate manufacturing, robotaxis transform transportation, and artificial intelligence amplifies knowledge worker productivity.

Catalyzed by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, the global equity market value associated with disruptive innovation could increase from 16% of the total* to more than 60% by 2030. As a result, the annualized equity return associated with disruptive innovation could exceed 40% during the next seven years, increasing its market capitalization from ~$19 trillion today to roughly $220 trillion by 2030.

With superhuman performance on a wide range of tests, AI models like GPT-4 should catalyze an unprecedented boom in productivity. Jolted by ChatGPT’s “iPhone” like moment, enterprises are scrambling to harness the potential of artificial intelligence.

AI promises more than efficiency gains, thanks to rapidly falling costs and open- source models. If knowledge worker productivity were to quadruple by 2030, as we believe is likely, growth in real GDP could accelerate and break records during the next five to ten years.

However the real impact of AI will be how it converges with other technologies to solve more fundamental challenges, and reinvent entire ways of operating. It becomes, as ARK calls it, the central technology catalyst:

All this enthusiasm, adoption and investment is also accelerating the speed of development of AI, far faster than previously imagined. In particular ARK estimates that the advent of AGI, or general AI, where machines outsmart humans, is much closer than previously anticipated:

ARK is a Florida-based investment management company founded by Cathie Wood, who left her job as chief investment officer of Alliance Bernstein, because it felt her idea to build a fund based on disruptive innovation was too risky.

 

“What it Takes” is the memoir of Steve Schwarzman, cofounder and CEO of Blackstone, one of the world’s largest investment firms.

He talks about why leaders need clarity of purpose, to dare to think big, and realise the profound impact of AI. One of his favourite sayings is that “it is just as easy to do something big as it is to do something small”.

Schwarzman grew up in an entrepreneurial family selling curtains in Philadelphia. His father was content with owning one store, but Steve was not. He had more ambition. At high school he wanted to bring the best bands to play. At college he started a dance society to meet more girls. He joined Lehman as a trainee, where he learned about finance and discovered his real strength. In 1985 he co-founded Blackstone with friend Pete Peterson, and grew it to hold over $500 billion in assets under management.

He believes that leaders in today’s complex and uncertain world need clarity of purpose, to dare to think big, and realise the profound impact of AI, saying “it is just as easy to do something big as it is to do something small”.

He believes that successful leaders must have the confidence and courage to act when the moment seems right. They accept risk when others are cautious and take action when everyone else is frozen, but they do so smartly. This trait is the mark of a leader. “To be successful you have to put yourself in situations you have no right being in. You shake your head at your stupidity, but eventually it gives you what you want.”

Stepping up to lead

  • “Leadership is lifting your vision to higher sights, raising your performance to a higher standard, building your personality beyond normal limitations” said Peter Drucker
  • “Change will not come if we wait for somebody else, or some other time. We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. We are the change that we seek” said Barack Obama
  • “Don’t be intimidated by what you don’t know. That can be your greatest strength and ensure that you do things differently from everyone else”said Sara Blakely
  • “Great entrepreneurial DNA is comprised of leadership, technological vision, frugality, and the desire to succeed” said Steve Blank
  • “Courage is not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear” said Nelson Mandela
  • “People will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel” said Maya Angelou
  • “Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life … Have the courage to follow your heart and intuition” said Steve Jobs
  • “Never give up. Today is hard, tomorrow will be worse, but the day after tomorrow will be sunshine” said Jack Ma

What is leadership?

3.5 billion people will make up the global workforce by 2030, around half of who are likely to be self-employed. If we assume that in organisations people typically work in teams of around 10 people, then there will be around 220 million leaders in organisations over the next decade, plus many more who lead in virtual and collaborative ways.

However most surveys say that leaders are struggling. The majority of employees believe that they can do their jobs as well, or if not better, without their supervisors and managers (80% in one Gallup study). Only 15% of people feel truly engaged in their work, and many say that managers are one of their main reasons for leaving jobs.

“Managing”, of course, is not the same thing as “leading”. Managing is typically described as using controls to achieve a task. Leading is about influencing, motivating and enabling people to contribute, and achieve more.  Managers do things right, leaders do the right things. Managers focus on methods to achieve efficiency, leaders focus on purpose to achieve effectiveness. Or managers have their heads down, leaders have their heads up.

Anyone in the organisation can be a leader. Not everyone in the business is a manager, although managers need to be leaders.

Not everyone is born a leader, but anyone can become one.

Leadership is your choice, not something which is given to you. Leadership is not a job title, a position of authority, or a magical gift.  It starts with having confidence. Having a vision that you believe in. Having the courage to step forwards. Engaging other people. And yourself, being the change you want to see in others.

  • “I think the fundamental role of a leader is to look for ways to shape the decades ahead, not just react to the present, and to help others accept the discomfort of disruptions to the status quo” says Indra Nooyi, former chairman and CEO of PepsiCo
  • “Leaders of other enterprises often define themselves as captains of the ship, but I think I’m more the ship’s architect or designer. That’s different from a captain’s role, in which the route is often fixed and the destination defined” reflects Zhang Ruimin, founder and former CEO of Haier
  • “The single most important thing I have to do as CEO is ensure that our brand continues to be relevant.” adds Chris Kempczinski, CEO of McDonald’s
  • “I think my leadership style can be called ‘collaborative command.’ You bring different opinions into the room, you allow for a really great debate, but you understand that, at the end of the day, a decision has to be made quickly” says Adena Friedman, CEO of Nasdaq
  • “We need an urgent refoundation of business and capitalism around purpose and humanity. To find new ways for all of us to lead so that we can create a better future, a more sustainable future” concludes Hubert Joly, former chairman and CEO of Best Buy.

Leaders shape the future

When writing “The Complete CEO” we found that very few CEOs could actually define leadership. They were comfortable describing their positions in organisation hierarchies, and the defined responsibilities of their roles, but few were able to say what it meant “to lead”. Eventually I got words about inspiration and influence, vision and direction, followership and alignment, but quite inconsistently.

Marissa Mayer, the previous CEO of Yahoo!, defines leadership as “helping believe in a better tomorrow, with a better outcome than you have today”.

DDI’s “Global Leadership Forecast” report says that only 42% of leaders felt that the overall quality of leadership inside their organisations was high, and only 14% of leaders felt they had a strong “bench” of next generation leaders ready to step up. Most sports teams have at least double their first team squad, as reserves ready to step up if required. Another DDI report on leadership development in 2015 said that 71% of organisations said their leaders are not ready to lead their organisations into the future.

Dave Ulrich sought to bring together all the best leadership theories, models and competencies in “The Leadership Code”  and summarising leadership as five overarching roles:

  • Strategist: Leaders shape the future
  • Executor: Leaders make things happen
  • Talent manager: Leaders engage today’s talent
  • Human capital developer: Leaders build the next generation
  • Personal proficiency: Leaders invest in their own development

I know Ulrich quite well. He even took off his tie and gave it to me, whilst we were once on stage together in Istanbul. He is probably one of the most business-oriented leadership experts around, and much of his personal work is in connecting leaders to strategy, and their impact to value creation. Yet he says himself, too many leadership ideas, and the development of leaders, is done in a vacuum, as a separate skill.

So whilst most leadership thinking tends to focus on the leadership role in the context of leading people, teams and organisation – which of course, matters –  Ulrich rightly argues that the most important question a leader needs to answer is  “Where are we going?”

In today’s world, organisations need leaders, more than ever, to look forwards.

Leaders don’t have to be strategists in the traditional sense of spending many hours analysing markets, developing rigorous plans supported by lots of commentary and financial projections. The strategic contribution of a leaders needs to be context setting – defining a clear purpose, envisioning what the future will look like, stretching mindsets of what is possible, articulating the ambitions, the big choices, and horizons to aim for.

Business performance is the measure of how well leaders do this. Warren Buffett will of course remind us that a CEO of a public company is legally responsible to deliver a return to shareholders, but he would also agree that this is more an outcome. Value creation is the framework to engage all stakeholders in progress. The challenge for leaders is not to become obsessed by financials, but to define purpose and be the moral compass of the organisation, to achieve more, in a better way.

Leaders earn their power from how they inspire people with ideas, influence people about what’s right, and the impact they have through their actions. This is quite different from the old power of leaders, which came through position, experience and expertise. Instead of leadership based on command and control, I see a leaders as a

  • Catalyst: the leader stimulates and stretches the organisation, asking the important questions, adding energy and urgency, focusing on insights and goals.
  • Communicator: the leader articulates purpose, vision and direction, listening and engaging with people, building empathy and trust, creating a better future together.
  • Connectors: the leader connects ideas, people, activities and partners; encouraging learning and collaboration; facilitating new capacity for innovation.
  • Coaches: the leader supports rather than commands; to think, act and deliver better; and encouraging them have the confidence to rise up.

I also love the definition of leaders as “amplifiers” – they amplify the potential of people. And equally of organisations and all their stakeholders. They open up new spaces to go for, and through inspiration and influence, they create a belief and confidence that it is attainable. Amplifying is about increasing the capacity to succeed, and therefore about transforming your potential, personally and organisationally.

Leaders with purpose

Danone is an organisation driven by a sense of purpose to create a healthier society, a responsibility to all stakeholders and a “B Corporation” priority for sustainability. As a result, the “how” matters as much as the “what” in what the business does, but also how its leaders lead, saying that breakthrough results can only be achieved when people dare to express and demonstrate their leadership potential.

Danone describes its unique style of leadership using “CODES”, the behaviours which bring its values and beliefs to life. These five behaviours shape everything in its culture, from recruitment to development, performance and rewards:

  • C … Create a meaningful future: challenge the status quo and generate breakthrough ideas, every day can be a fresh adventure, full of new possibilities and real excitement, demanding a sense of purpose for yourself, team and colleagues.
  • O … Open connections inside and out: open to new thinking and fresh perspective, developing networks inside and outside, interacting at all levels and building trust to understand all stakeholders, and design products of the future.
  • D … Drive for sustainable results: a culture of speed and agility, where individuals are free and express their talents, anticipating and driving progress in a way that sustains value creation for the business, consumers and the community.
  • E … Empower yourself and diverse teams: leadership not micromanagement, releasing the power of the team with the right mix of support and freedom, enabling people to express their uniqueness and foster collective performance.
  • S … Self-aware: being aware of your own strengths and development needs is essential to learn and grow, maintaining self-balance at work by recognising when to step back and when to reach out to others.

Quiet leaders, inspiring leaders

Pablo Isla, CEO of Inditex, is the humble Spanish king of fast fashion. Quiet and unassuming, like a sports coach he sees the power in his team, and his job is to make them the stars.

On first meeting, Isla might not strike you as one of the world’s leading CEOs. He is quiet and unassuming, but as leader of Spanish fashion monolith, Inditex, that is his strength. During his 12 years at Inditex, with brands from Zara to Mango, he has increased enterprise value seven times over, engaged in global expansion at a rate of on average one new store opening a day, and has made Inditex Spain’s most valuable company.

Isla’s priorities have been about achieving greater integration and efficiency. Firstly, creating an omnichannel shopping experience, that combines the best of aspects of technology and stores. Secondly, an integrated supply chain, able to quickly react to changing fashion.

The single word which most employees use to describe his style is humble. He seeks to avoid any form of hierarchy, he hates meetings, and despises ego. Instead he likes to make decisions informally as he walks around. He even avoids his own store openings, wanting the focus to be on the store and his teams.

“The strength of our company is the combination of everybody, much more than of any single person. We try to be a low-profile company, being humble, of course being very ambitious, but being humble” he told Harvard Business Review

“The core shopper dreaming of a $50 pair of affordable but high-fashion high heels from Zara wants to hear about the new store in her neighbourhood, not about how in control some privileged executive is.” Of all his staff, he highlights the role of front-line store managers who are empowered to make product selections and who he sees as the people who he is there to serve

Growing as a leader

As leaders progress in the organisation their roles changes, from technical to functional, tactical to strategic, management and leadership. With these role come changing perspectives and responsibilities:

  • Short term to long term
  • Transactional to transformational
  • Functional expert to organisational
  • Managing tasks to managing porfolios
  • Limited stakeholders to multiple stakeholders
  • Getting the job done to optimising value creation

Whilst we might think of leadership as one approach, the styles of leadership are different as we progress in an organisation. The “six passages” of leadership was developed by  Walter Mahler in the 1970s, based on leadership behaviours and successions in GE, and focuses on the “critical crossroads” that leaders face during their career.

Here are the 7 “levels” of leadership, and the 6 “passages” or transitions from one stage to the next, and the change in skills and mindsets which the transition demands:

  • Leading self: individual contributors, professional staff, driven by tasks and expertise, establishing credibility, delivering results.

>>> Transition 1: from skills to collaboration, from doing work to getting it done

  • Leading others: leaders of small teams or projects, recruiting and developing, resolving conflicts, delegating, adapting to cultural differences.

>>> Transition 2: from personal to team agendas, from organising to coaching

  • Leading managers: leaders integrate teams, managing trade-offs and politics, problem solving, negotiating and risk taking, engaging people.

>>> Transition 3: from activities to functional strategies, from tasks to complexity

  • Functional leaders: aligning resources, developing leading practices, driving and implementing change and innovation, managing dispersed teams.

>>> Transition 4: from current to future thinking, from costs centres to profit centres

  • Business leaders: developing vision, balancing short and long-term, aligning with organisation, working across functions, exploring new business models.

>>> Transition 5: from managing business, to a strategic portfolio of businesses

  • Group leaders: managing performance across businesses, for today and tomorrow, catalysts of change and innovation, exploring new ventures and renewal.

>>> Transition 6: from internal to external stakeholders, managing whole systems

  • Enterprise leaders: top executives, engage all stakeholders, set direction and build leadership team for today and future, shape culture and reputation.

In time, leaders assume greater responsibility, and leadership roles increase in their challenge, breadth, and complexity. As leaders advance, they reallocate their focus to help others to perform effectively. They learn to value the work of leadership and believe that making time for others, planning, coordinating, and coaching are imperative in their new responsibility.

One way to consider the evolution is as a “T” shape, moving up the vertical when roles are largely built around function, to the horizontal where are role are much broader and cross-functional. As the leader moves from an area of expertise to general management, they shift from needing to have all the answers, to being able to ask the right questions.

Of course, many leadership attributes, such as accountability, engagement and delivery – are common at all stages although executed in different ways.  Also as organisations shift from tall hierarchies to flatter networks, then there are less stages of leadership, from seven to maybe only three.

What’s your best leadership style?

We all tend to have a preferred or “natural style” of leadership.

Leading in a way that feels right and natural to you, is both easier for you, and more consistent and authentic for others. Whatever your style, people will engage with and trust you more, if they know that you are genuine.

At times though you may need to adapt your style, or embrace aspects of other styles for a specific purpose. Daniel Ek, CEO of Spotify, for example, found that he was too laid back for his teams when they were looking for direction and focus. He worked on making the most of his own style, while strengthening aspects that met the needs of his teams.

There are many theoretical models of leadership to take ideas from.

Kurt Lewin classified leadership styles into autocratic, participative and laissez-faire. Tannenbaum and Schmidt saw leadership as a continuum of styles, ranging from autocratic to freed, but said that the best style at any time depended upon a variety of factors, such as the leader’s personality and the situation they faced.  Daniel Goleman, who coined the phrase “emotional intelligence”  developed a framework of six different styles built on a leaders ability to emotionally engage with people in different ways – visionary, coaching, democratic, pacesetting, affiliative and commanding.

Here are some of the different approaches, grouped by their objectives:

Leading in an inspiring style … when you want to encourage people to work with you in creating a better future, providing energy and direction to move forwards:

  • Transformational … “Imagine if “… opportunity to grow, yourself and business
  • Visionary … “Come with me” … a new direction, empathetic, builds confidence
  • Pacesetting … “We can do this” … driven to achieve, energising but exhausting

Leading in an nurturing style … when you want to support people to be their best, although not necessarily about thinking about being creative or moving forwards:

  • Servant … “Here for you” … secures resources so that people can act as see fit
  • Coaching … “Try this” … empathy, supports individual needs, but less directive
  • Affiliative … “People come first” … empathy, reassures and builds the team

Leading in a more engaged style … when you want  to let people get on with their work, trusting that they have capabilities and desire to do the task:

  • Laissez-faire … “Do what you think” … entrusting people to deliver, giving space
  • Transactional … “You know what to do” … clear tasks, intervene if not delivered
  • Bureaucratic … “Follow the process” … clearly defined technical steps to follow

Leading in a commanding style … when you want to be in charge and make the decisions, often when you believe people don’t have the capabilities to decide:

  • Consultative … “Tell me what you think” … you listen and then decide yourself
  • Persuasive … “This is what, and why” … you decide then seek to persuade them
  • Autocratic … “Do what I tell you” … demotivating but can work in crisis

Knowing when and how to adapt your leadership style to different situations can have a huge impact on how your team will respond.  For example if you are trying to build capabilities within your team you may find that the coaching leadership style works best.  If you have urgent deadlines, then pacesetting. If you need to be highly structured and compliant, the bureaucratic. If you want people to work together to create a better future for all, then transformational.

Evaluating leaders

Korn Ferry, the search firm, developed a particularly useful assessment model for leadership development, in order to identify how ready and able individuals are to move to the next levels of leadership. They organise the qualities required in leaders into four distinct categories. Each dimension plays a distinct role in performance, engagement, potential, and personal career development:

  • Drivers and Traits, which describe “who you are” … drivers are the values and interests that motivate a person, traits are the natural tendencies of a person, influenced by personality and intelligence.
  • Experiences and Competencies, which describe “what you do” … experiences are projects or roles that can prepare a person for a future role, competences are the observable skills and behaviours.

Most organisations regard an individual’s “drive” as a key predictor of high potential, meaning their level of personal energy and engagement they have for their tasks. At the same time, people are more energised by roles that have a good fit with them. Leaders typically want to be leaders, they find the role of a leader interesting and the work of leading motivating. This is particularly tested as they have to allocate more time to leadership aspects of roles as they progress.

Traits also play a large role in how people develop, defining what is more natural for them and what is more of an effort. Traits endure over time, and exert a strong influence on a person’s outlook, attitudes and behaviours. Traditionally personality inventories, based on traits, have been the primary diagnostic tool for leaders.

Korn Ferry’s leadership potential model embraces these factors, and evaluates how a person will progress through the different levels of leadership, and the transitions required:

  • Drivers
    • Advancement drive: through collaboration, ambition, challenge.
    • Career planning: how narrowly or broadly focused are career goals
    • Role preferences: achieving through others vs. through self.
  • Experience
    • Core experience: what they’ve learned through day-to-day leadership.
    • Perspective: diversity of experience in many different areas.
    • Key challenges: their experience in addressing developmental challenges.
  • Awareness
    • Self-awareness: of their strengths and development needs.
    • Situational self-awareness: how events impact their performance.
  • Learning agility
    • Mental agility: to be inquisitive and mentally quick.
    • People agility: to read others and use this to enable change.
    • Change agility: to explore new possibilities, take ideas from vision to reality.
    • Results agility: to deliver outstanding results in new and tough situations.
  • Leadership traits
    • Focus: the balance between details and the big picture.
    • Persistence: the passionate pursuit of personally valued long-term goals.
    • Tolerance of ambiguity: to deal with uncertainty or confusing situations.
    • Assertiveness: willingness to assume a leader role and comfort with it.
    • Optimism: to have a positive outlook.
  • Capacity
    • Problem solving: spot trends and patterns and draw correct conclusions from confusing or ambiguous data.
  • Derailment risks
    • Volatile: a risk toward being mercurial, erratic, or unpredictable.
    • Micromanaging: a risk toward controlling the work of direct reports.
    • Closed: a risk of being closed to alternative perspectives and opportunities.

Ultimately your leadership is not measured by what you do, but the impact you have. The way you can positively effect your people, the way in which they drive the activities of organisation, and what it achieves.

IE Business School, based in Madrid, is just down the road from the Santiago Bernebéu stadium, the home of Real Madrid, the Spanish football club who are Europe’s all-time most successful soccer team.

I always take the business leaders who I teach at IE, to the stadium as part of my programs. We walk past the showcases of trophies, the photos of past successes, through the changing rooms, and out into the cauldron of competition where 80,000 fanatical spectators usually look down on the game.

I beckon them to sit down on the bench, the seats reserved for the coach and his staff, at the side of the pitch. For a few minutes they can be Zinadine Zidane, or whoever the coach is. He has spent hours on the training field with his players, sharpening fitness and skills, talking strategies and tactics, preparing for the competition. But once the match begins, his players are on their own. he entrusts all to his players. They now need to respond to whatever happens, to make their own decisions in the heat of competition. His own success is 100% entrusted in his team.

Whilst the coach can perfect his own leadership skills, how he uses them to influence others is what matters. His own success is entrusted in his people.

© Peter Fisk 2024.  Excerpt from Business Recoded by Peter Fisk

Green cement, upcycled fashion, clean energy, plant-based food, electric vehicles … the challenge of decarbonisation is the catalyst to innovate solutions, and reinvent organisations.

Across industries and geographies, the urgency to achieve “net zero” is dominating corporate strategies, as we as sustainability agendas. It has become a key factor in driving competitive advantage (customers choosing suppliers who can help them reduce their own emissions), as well as employee engagement, investor perceptions, government and social goodwill, and ultimately value creation.

Sustainable businesses do better – overall they typically outperform average performers by 42% in market value. But they also attract the best talent, customers are likely to pay a premium of 10-25% depending on sector, investors take a more positive view of future potential, and government and social support are much greater.

While the focus is on carbon emissions, there is much more to achieving success:

  • Sustainably Better is much more than ESG, as strategies are much than metrics, and environmental issues are just part of the story. Environmental protection, social improvement and economic growth need to work together. Otherwise the emerging economies will never support it, and generally we will have unsustainable compromise rather than sustainable growth, value creation and a better future.
  • Net Positive rather than just net zero, because ultimately an organisation exists to make a contribution, to make some net positive benefit to the world. And in many cases the best strategies combine reduced environmental impacts, with positive social impacts. Or indeed, the environmental impacts could be positive too through closed loop solutions, replenishing resources, and regenerating the planet, and local environments, to better than before.
  • Sustainable Innovation is the real key to solving the problem, or more precisely sustainable innovation – using the problem, for example, carbon emissions, as the catalyst to create something better, cheaper, faster. There is no coincidence that electric vehicles tend to be the most stylish, and increasingly highest performing, too. New technologies will play a dramatic, exponential role in unlocking this innovativeness.
  • Business Transformation is required to address these challenges and opportunities. Circular, net positive, organisations are only achievable with the support of new business models, new organisation processes and new market structures of today. Transformation is the leadership superpower of the 21st century, but it is complex, and takes time. It needs clarity of vision, discipline in delivery, and persistence to realise its full value.

Which are the critical industries for decarbonisation?

  • Energy: Over the past decade, the costs of renewables have dropped substantially—solar power by as much as 80%  and wind power by about 40% —making them economically competitive with conventional fuels, such as coal and natural gas. A successful transition to net zero will require meeting increased demand for electricity by scaling up renewable, low-carbon power generation and building enough flexibility in power systems to match supply and demand.
  • Cars and Planes: Sales and planned production of low-emissions cars have surged. By 2035, we project that new passenger-vehicle sales in the largest automotive markets (China, EU, and USA) will be close to 100 percent electric. To make low-emissions vehicles the new norm, new supply chains and manufacturing capabilities are needed, as well as corresponding infrastructure, such as charging stations and hydrogen fuelling stations.
  • Cement and Steel: Some cement companies have used advanced analytics and other operational tactics to optimise for energy efficiency, while others have experimented with emissions-reducing production methods. A circular model starts with existing materials, creating new buildings from old waste. Going forward, the industry could explore alternative energy sources (such as biomass), carbon capture, and digitisation of manufacturing.
  • Agriculture and Food: Promising technologies in animal feeding, soil carbon sequestration, and crop fertilisation are in development or are already in use. The market for cultivated meats—those grown in bioreactors from animal cells—could become a $25 billion global industry by 2030. Uptake of zero-emissions farm equipment and machinery—including tractors, harvesters, and dryers—is behind that of electric vehicles, but cost reductions and supportive financing could accelerate adoption.

What does the Paris Agreement demand?

The UN Climate Change “Paris Agreement” is a shared commitment by 196 nations at COP21, head in Paris in 2015. It sets the stage for global climate action, emphasizing the urgency of reducing emissions and transitioning toward a sustainable, low-carbon future. Key points are:

  • Limiting global warming by holding “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above, which is the point beyond which significant climate impacts are caused, including droughts, heatwaves, and extreme rainfall.
  • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030, after a projected peak in 2025, to achieve the 1.5°C goal, with each country developing their own Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) defining their actions to reduce emissions and build resilience to climate change.
  • Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, where “net zero” means balancing emissions by absorbing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere. The agreement recognises that this is a shared commitment, and will require cooperation between nations to achieve it, sharing knowledge and practices, and collaboration on new the transformations required.

That’s the absolute minimum, to retain our world as we know it, which is the focus of politicians and environmentalists. But as business we need to achieve much more. Delivering the Paris Agreement in a way that also creates a better business, with a more prosperous future – which is why sustainably better, net positive, sustainable innovation and business transformation, are key.

So what are the practical strategies?

The most commonly used breakdown of a company’s carbon emissions are the three scopes defined by the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, a partnership between the World Resources Institute and World Business Council for Sustainable Development.

The GHG Protocol separates carbon emissions into three buckets: emissions caused directly by the company, emissions caused by the company’s consumption of electricity, and emissions caused by activities in a company’s value chain.

  • Scope 1: Direct emissions: these emissions are direct GHG emissions that occur from sources owned or controlled by the company, and are generally the easiest to track and change. Scope 1 emissions include factories, offices, vehicles, production.
  • Scope 2: Indirect electricity emissions:  These emissions are indirect GHG emissions from the generation of purchased electricity consumed by the company, which requires tracking both your company’s energy consumption and the relevant electrical output type and emissions from the supplying utility. They include electricity use (e.g. lights, computers, machinery, heating, steam, cooling) and emissions occur at the facility where electricity is generated.
  • Scope 3: Value chain emissions: These emissions include all other indirect GHG emissions occurring as a consequence of a company’s activities both upstream and downstream. They aren’t controlled or owned by the company, and many reporting bodies consider them optional to track, but they are often the largest source of a company’s carbon footprint and can be impacted in many different ways. This include supplies, investments, employee travel, company waste.

Most uses of the GHG Protocol by companies includes many of the most common and impactful greenhouse gases that were covered by the UN’s 1997 Kyoto Protocol. These include carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, as well as other gases and carbon-based compounds.But the standard doesn’t include other emissions that either act as minor greenhouse gases or are harmful to other aspects of life, such as general pollutants or ozone depletion.

There are many different types of carbon emissions for companies (and governments) to consider, measure, and reduce on the path to decarbonisation. But that means there are also many places to start.

Practical examples

Cities are a major arena in the race to net zero. They consume over two-thirds of global energy resources and account for more than 70% of CO2 emissions worldwide.1More than half (56%) of the global population currently lives in an urban area. The UN expects that number to reach 68% by 2050.

New research by Economist Impact, supported by Osborne Clarke, identifies some of the technologies that can help cities achieve their carbon-emission targets while also creating jobs, lowering energy costs for residents, and improving overall quality of life. It considers three categories of technologies – support building, infrastructure and mobility.

The UN Environment Programme (2017) reported that buildings and construction are responsible for over 36% of global energy consumed, and as much as 40% of energy-related CO2 emissions. Technologies in this sector help increase the energy efficiency of existing buildings, while also reducing the carbon footprint of the construction sector as a whole.

The energy consumption of cities has a disproportionate impact on CO2 emissions. More efficient energy distribution systems and the overall decarbonisation of the energy grid will have a significant impact on the decarbonisation of cities. Efficient waste management in cities, including disposal, recycling, composting and treatment, could also cut 10-15% of greenhouse-gas emissions globally.

From large, sprawling mega-cities to small towns, transportation systems play a key role in the functioning of urban life. Transportation also accounts for one-fifth of global CO2 emissions17 and in high-income countries, transportation can be the largest segment of an individual’s carbon footprint.18 Transitioning to electric mobility, and encouraging walking, cycling etc. can cut emissions in cities by 4.7 Gt of CO2 per annum.