Recode 1: Future Recoded: Change, Purpose, Vision, and Scenarios
Leaders used to look to the future, based on their success in the past. Most business strategies are built on what the organisation is currently good at. Most business plans are built on doing what you did last year, but a little better. Indeed we spend far more time looking backwards, evaluating what we have done, rather than looking forwards.
Anticipating, interpreting a future that is dynamic, complex and uncertain is not easy. But that is where the opportunities lie. Leadership today is about shaping the future in your own vision, and that starts by having perspective, being farsighted, and more expeditionary.
Key questions that we will explore include:
- How to make strategic choices when the future is complex and uncertain?
- What creates a good purpose statement, and how is it different from vision and strategy?
- How to balance longer-term initiatives with the obsession with short-term results?
- Where are the future opportunities, the blue oceans, the emerging uncontested markets?
- How do I engage my people in being excited about our future potential?
Getting started:
- Exploring megatrends … Explore the rapidly changing business world, and how markets are being dramatically reshaped by new technologies, geopolitical and demographic shifts, economics impacts, and new agendas.
- Additional resources:
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Megatrends 2030 by Peter Fisk
- Global Trends 2040 by US National Intelligence Council
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Megatrends 2050 by Roland Berger
- Megatrends 2023 and Megatrend Cards by SITRA
- Global Consumer Trends 2024 by Mintel
- Global Risks Report by WEF and McLellan
- A New World Disorder by Ipsos
- Trend Kaleidoscope 2024 by Peter Fisk
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- Additional resources:
- Opportunity mapping … Consider the challenges and opportunities for you and your business in this changing environment, how to see it from new perspectives, and have the potential to shape it to your advantage.
- Additional resources:
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Future Maps by Richard Watson
- Pixels of Progress by McKinsey
- Timeline of Next by Cognizant
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The Global 50 by Dubai Future Foundation
- Science Breakthrough Radar by GESDA
- Strategy at Work by Thinkers50
- Chief Strategy Officer Playbook by Thinkers50
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- Additional resources:
- Changing markets … Examine specific scenarios through which your own market might evolve, disrupted by new customers and competitors, and how fit your business and strategy is for these alternative futures.
- Additional resources:
- Playbook for Strategic Foresight by Stanford
- Scenario Templates and Approaches by FTI
- 4 scenarios for economic globalisation by WEF
- 4 scenarios to address climate change
- 4 scenarios for future of telecoms by Deloitte
- The future of energy and 4 scenarios by Deloitte
- Energy transformation scenarios by Shell
- Scenarios for construction industry by WEF
- Futures Toolkit by UK Government
- Buying into Better: Consumer Futures (Summary) by Deloitte
- Buying into Better: Consumer Futures (Presentation) by Deloitte
- Additional resources:
- Tech possibilities … Consider how new digital technologies – from AI to big data, digital platforms and smart devices, Web3 and the metaverse, genetics and nanotech – are transforming the possibilities to solve problems, and drive business futures.
- Additional resources:
- What Every Executive Needs to Know about AI by Bain
- Impromptu by Reid Hoffman and GPT-4
- Generative AI Bible by CB Insights
- Big Ideas 2023 by Ark Invest
- 10 Breakthrough Technologies by MIT
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Tech Trends and Scenarios by FTI
- DHL Future Logistics Radar
- CEO’s Guide to the Metaverse by McKinsey
- A Pragmatist’s Guide to the Metaverse by Cognizant
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Videos What is Web 3, What is Blockchain by HBR
- Additional resources:
- Future mindset … Reflect on what it takes to be focused on, and ready for, the future – to be curious and creative, to explore and experiment, to learn and change – rather than just optimising the existing world.
- Additional resources:
- Business Recoded: The courage to create a better future by Peter Fisk
- Futures Thinking by Kantar
- 4 Types of Future Thinking by IFTF
- Foresight Playbook by UN
- Video: 21st Century Englightenment by RSA
- Video: What Growth Mindset Actually Means by HBR
- Additional resources: