Exactly two years ago today, Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of Blackrock, wrote a letter to many of the world’s business leaders – CEOs of companies who looked to his business for investment.
It shook the business world.
This was not another anti-capitalist or environmental lobbyist saying that business needed to change, it was the boss of the world’s largest investment management firm.
Today Fink publishes his annual letter for 2020, again warning CEOs that profit-making is not enough, and that in today’s world of broader social and environmental challenges, businesses need to do more. They need more purpose, and deliver more impact. Blackrock had $7 trillion of assets under management in the third quarter of 2019, so its leverage is significant.
In his 2020 letter Fink says that climate risk is compelling investors to reassess core assumptions about where they invest their money, and that his firm is preparing to place sustainable investing at the centre of its investment approach. He also warns boards that climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.
Here is his 2020 letter in full:
Dear CEO,
A Fundamental Reshaping of Finance
As an asset manager, BlackRock invests on behalf of others, and I am writing to you as an advisor and fiduciary to these clients. The money we manage is not our own. It belongs to people in dozens of countries trying to finance long-term goals like retirement. And we have a deep responsibility to these institutions and individuals – who are shareholders in your company and thousands of others – to promote long-term value.
Climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects. Last September, when millions of people took to the streets to demand action on climate change, many of them emphasized the significant and lasting impact that it will have on economic growth and prosperity – a risk that markets to date have been slower to reflect. But awareness is rapidly changing, and I believe we are on the edge of a fundamental reshaping of finance.
The evidence on climate risk is compelling investors to reassess core assumptions about modern finance. Research from a wide range of organizations – including the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the BlackRock Investment Institute, and many others, including new studies from McKinsey on the socioeconomic implications of physical climate risk – is deepening our understanding of how climate risk will impact both our physical world and the global system that finances economic growth.
Will cities, for example, be able to afford their infrastructure needs as climate risk reshapes the market for municipal bonds? What will happen to the 30-year mortgage – a key building block of finance – if lenders can’t estimate the impact of climate risk over such a long timeline, and if there is no viable market for flood or fire insurance in impacted areas? What happens to inflation, and in turn interest rates, if the cost of food climbs from drought and flooding? How can we model economic growth if emerging markets see their productivity decline due to extreme heat and other climate impacts?
Investors are increasingly reckoning with these questions and recognizing that climate risk is investment risk. Indeed, climate change is almost invariably the top issue that clients around the world raise with BlackRock. From Europe to Australia, South America to China, Florida to Oregon, investors are asking how they should modify their portfolios. They are seeking to understand both the physical risks associated with climate change as well as the ways that climate policy will impact prices, costs, and demand across the entire economy.
These questions are driving a profound reassessment of risk and asset values. And because capital markets pull future risk forward, we will see changes in capital allocation more quickly than we see changes to the climate itself. In the near future – and sooner than most anticipate – there will be a significant reallocation of capital.
Climate Risk Is Investment Risk
As a fiduciary, our responsibility is to help clients navigate this transition. Our investment conviction is that sustainability- and climate-integrated portfolios can provide better risk-adjusted returns to investors. And with the impact of sustainability on investment returns increasing, we believe that sustainable investing is the strongest foundation for client portfolios going forward.
In a letter to our clients today, BlackRock announced a number of initiatives to place sustainability at the center of our investment approach, including: making sustainability integral to portfolio construction and risk management; exiting investments that present a high sustainability-related risk, such as thermal coal producers; launching new investment products that screen fossil fuels; and strengthening our commitment to sustainability and transparency in our investment stewardship activities.
Over the next few years, one of the most important questions we will face is the scale and scope of government action on climate change, which will generally define the speed with which we move to a low-carbon economy. This challenge cannot be solved without a coordinated, international response from governments, aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Under any scenario, the energy transition will still take decades. Despite recent rapid advances, the technology does not yet exist to cost-effectively replace many of today’s essential uses of hydrocarbons. We need to be mindful of the economic, scientific, social and political realities of the energy transition. Governments and the private sector must work together to pursue a transition that is both fair and just – we cannot leave behind parts of society, or entire countries in developing markets, as we pursue the path to a low-carbon world.
While government must lead the way in this transition, companies and investors also have a meaningful role to play. As part of this responsibility, BlackRock was a founding member of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). We are a signatory to the UN’s Principles for Responsible Investment, and we signed the Vatican’s 2019 statement advocating carbon pricing regimes, which we believe are essential to combating climate change.
BlackRock has joined with France, Germany, and global foundations to establish the Climate Finance Partnership, which is one of several public-private efforts to improve financing mechanisms for infrastructure investment. The need is particularly urgent for cities, because the many components of municipal infrastructure – from roads to sewers to transit – have been built for tolerances and weather conditions that do not align with the new climate reality. In the short term, some of the work to mitigate climate risk could create more economic activity. Yet we are facing the ultimate long-term problem. We don’t yet know which predictions about the climate will be most accurate, nor what effects we have failed to consider. But there is no denying the direction we are heading. Every government, company, and shareholder must confront climate change.
Improved Disclosure for Shareholders
We believe that all investors, along with regulators, insurers, and the public, need a clearer picture of how companies are managing sustainability-related questions. This data should extend beyond climate to questions around how each company serves its full set of stakeholders, such as the diversity of its workforce, the sustainability of its supply chain, or how well it protects its customers’ data. Each company’s prospects for growth are inextricable from its ability to operate sustainably and serve its full set of stakeholders.
The importance of serving stakeholders and embracing purpose is becoming increasingly central to the way that companies understand their role in society. As I have written in past letters, a company cannot achieve long-term profits without embracing purpose and considering the needs of a broad range of stakeholders. A pharmaceutical company that hikes prices ruthlessly, a mining company that shortchanges safety, a bank that fails to respect its clients – these companies may maximize returns in the short term. But, as we have seen again and again, these actions that damage society will catch up with a company and destroy shareholder value. By contrast, a strong sense of purpose and a commitment to stakeholders helps a company connect more deeply to its customers and adjust to the changing demands of society. Ultimately, purpose is the engine of long-term profitability.
Over time, companies and countries that do not respond to stakeholders and address sustainability risks will encounter growing skepticism from the markets, and in turn, a higher cost of capital. Companies and countries that champion transparency and demonstrate their responsiveness to stakeholders, by contrast, will attract investment more effectively, including higher-quality, more patient capital.
Important progress improving disclosure has already been made – and many companies already do an exemplary job of integrating and reporting on sustainability – but we need to achieve more widespread and standardized adoption. While no framework is perfect, BlackRock believes that the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) provides a clear set of standards for reporting sustainability information across a wide range of issues, from labor practices to data privacy to business ethics. For evaluating and reporting climate-related risks, as well as the related governance issues that are essential to managing them, the TCFD provides a valuable framework.
We recognize that reporting to these standards requires significant time, analysis, and effort. BlackRock itself is not yet where we want to be, and we are continuously working to improve our own reporting. Our SASB-aligned disclosure is available on our website, and we will be releasing a TCFD-aligned disclosure by the end of 2020.
BlackRock has been engaging with companies for several years on their progress towards TCFD- and SASB-aligned reporting. This year, we are asking the companies that we invest in on behalf of our clients to: (1) publish a disclosure in line with industry-specific SASB guidelines by year-end, if you have not already done so, or disclose a similar set of data in a way that is relevant to your particular business; and (2) disclose climate-related risks in line with the TCFD’s recommendations, if you have not already done so. This should include your plan for operating under a scenario where the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to less than two degrees is fully realized, as expressed by the TCFD guidelines.
We will use these disclosures and our engagements to ascertain whether companies are properly managing and overseeing these risks within their business and adequately planning for the future. In the absence of robust disclosures, investors, including BlackRock, will increasingly conclude that companies are not adequately managing risk.
We believe that when a company is not effectively addressing a material issue, its directors should be held accountable. Last year BlackRock voted against or withheld votes from 4,800 directors at 2,700 different companies. Where we feel companies and boards are not producing effective sustainability disclosures or implementing frameworks for managing these issues, we will hold board members accountable. Given the groundwork we have already laid engaging on disclosure, and the growing investment risks surrounding sustainability, we will be increasingly disposed to vote against management and board directors when companies are not making sufficient progress on sustainability-related disclosures and the business practices and plans underlying them.
Accountable and Transparent Capitalism
Over the 40 years of my career in finance, I have witnessed a number of financial crises and challenges – the inflation spikes of the 1970s and early 1980s, the Asian currency crisis in 1997, the dot-com bubble, and the global financial crisis. Even when these episodes lasted for many years, they were all, in the broad scheme of things, short-term in nature. Climate change is different. Even if only a fraction of the projected impacts is realized, this is a much more structural, long-term crisis. Companies, investors, and governments must prepare for a significant reallocation of capital.
In the discussions BlackRock has with clients around the world, more and more of them are looking to reallocate their capital into sustainable strategies. If ten percent of global investors do so – or even five percent – we will witness massive capital shifts. And this dynamic will accelerate as the next generation takes the helm of government and business. Young people have been at the forefront of calling on institutions – including BlackRock – to address the new challenges associated with climate change. They are asking more of companies and of governments, in both transparency and in action. And as trillions of dollars shift to millennials over the next few decades, as they become CEOs and CIOs, as they become the policymakers and heads of state, they will further reshape the world’s approach to sustainability.
As we approach a period of significant capital reallocation, companies have a responsibility – and an economic imperative – to give shareholders a clear picture of their preparedness. And in the future, greater transparency on questions of sustainability will be a persistently important component of every company’s ability to attract capital. It will help investors assess which companies are serving their stakeholders effectively, reshaping the flow of capital accordingly. But the goal cannot be transparency for transparency’s sake. Disclosure should be a means to achieving a more sustainable and inclusive capitalism. Companies must be deliberate and committed to embracing purpose and serving all stakeholders – your shareholders, customers, employees, and the communities where you operate. In doing so, your company will enjoy greater long-term prosperity, as will investors, workers, and society as a whole.
Mark Parker was the running geek who became an innovative shoe designer, and then became CEO of the world’s largest sportswear company.
He stepped into the top job at Nike in 2006, and into the rather big running shoes of founder Phil Knight. Knight said “He was one of the first guys we recruited out of college, so we’ve kind of had our eye on him for almost 40 years.”
He had previously been instrumental in Nike’s annual revenue growth since joining the company in 1979. Over the 14 years he has been in the role of CEO, profits have increased 57 percent and Nike’s market cap has grown by over 1000%. The success of Nike particularly stems from how well Parker has embraced innovation and design, but also digital and direct sales.
Parker has overseen the sportswear giant’s emergence into the fashion industry’s orbit. Parker has successfully appealed to the street style generation with what have become best-selling products, most notably Nike’s Free Runs, Air Max, Fly Knit and Vaporfly product lines. in 2010 Fast Company called him “the world’s most creative CEO.”
Parker’s ability to market Nike’s brand through its design sensibility, as well as its products’ functionality, stems from his personal experience as a member of the company’s design team.
Running has always been in the DNA of Nike. It was the passion of Phil Knight when he started the company, and was always in Parker too. He was a averagely successful college athlete, running a number of 2.30 marathons, but stood out as the one who always had great aspirations than his own athletic capabilities.
Parker’s passion drew him to Nike. Having graduated from Penn State University in 1977, with a degree in Political Science, he joined Nike in 1979 as a footwear designer based in its research and design facility in Exeter, New Hampshire.
He became division vice president in charge of development in 1987, corporate vice president in 1989, general manager in 1993 and vice president of global footwear in 1998. Prior to becoming chief executive, he served as co-president with Charlie Denson from March 2001, until his appointment in 2006.
However Mark Parker was never your average corporate executive. He did not conform to business norms. He has a love for art of all types, from Andy Warhol to Adonna Khare, the actual track spikes which Roger Bannister wore to break 4 minutes for the mile, and original props from sci-fi movies like Back to the Future and Star Wars, including C3-P0. Take a look at his rather quirky, and over crowded office, full of eclectic inspiration …
Here are some of the ways in which he has personally transformed Nike:
Product Champion, from Pegasus to Next%
Before and during his time as CEO, Parker spent a lot of time in Nike’s fabled Innovation Kitchen, which is a top-secret prototyping area that offers a plethora of tools, machines, materials, instruments, and utilities for designers to explore new ideas. While many CEOs might not see it as prerequisite to be so hands on with design, Parker did.
In what is considered a definitive profile on Mark Parker by Fast Company, Nike director of footwear innovation Michael Donaghu spoke about the Innovation Kitchen, remarking, “I think his heart is still here. He still likes to just pop in and start talking to people about stuff that’s on their desks, particularly their side projects. He can’t help himself.”
During his tenure at Nike, Parker worked on numerous running projects including the Odyssey, Pegasus, Air Trainer 1, Presto, Nike Free cushioning, the auto-lacing HyperAdapt sneaker, and the lifestyle-oriented HTM range (more on that below). Even Tinker Hatfield’s revolutionary Visible Air is patented in Parker’s name.
Design Champion, from shoes to strategy
Even before working for Nike, Parker was a designer and runner who customized and adapted his own shoes. “I might run in an Asics Tiger shoe and put a waffle bottom on it,” he told Fast Company. “Any business that wants to realize its potential has to have good design.”
It was this design-oriented mindset that set him apart from other CEOs that might come from a more traditional management background. At Nike, Parker equated management with editing, and he believed what set him apart was his openness to creativity and a sense of how critical it is to focus on innovation in a company. Always searching for deeper insights to inform innovations, Parker’s “design thinking” management style has been likened to Apple’s approach to products under designer Jony Ive.
Innovation Champion, from Japan to Eugene
He is one of three members of HTM, a three-person design collaboration, alongside designer Tinker Hatfield and creative consultant Hiroshi Fujiwara, that functions as Nike’s core R&D team. HTM is an unusual collaboration: it resides within a more than $30 billion dollar company yet it operates without deadlines or budget constraints and is guided solely by the interests of its three members. Since HTM’s formation in 2002, the trio has launched over 30 limited-edition shoes. The HTM project doesn’t work on any real deadlines or constraints, but highlights on the HTM project’s CV include several collectible Lunar Flyknit models, a number of Kobe signature models, and even some Converse.
Parker said last year, “HTM was about more than Japanese sneaker culture. Although when it started, the Tokyo mystique was very high. HTM started with the idea of how the three of us—Hiroshi, Tinker, and I—could reconstruct a classic sneaker with a new twist to appeal to a different audience. It evolved into the partnership we have today, where each of us has the opportunity to explore new concepts to push the edges for the company.”
Artistic Champion, from inspiration to collaborations
Parker started to tap artists such as KAWS, Futura 2000, Stash, Mr Cartoon, and Os Gêmeos, to create limited-edition sneakers around the mid-1990s. Many of these partnerships are still ongoing today, and the resulting sneakers are considered highly collectible. Parker’s office is famously packed from wall-to-wall with artwork he has commissioned or collected, from Andy Warhol pieces to sculptures by Dustin Yellin. It was reported that Parked once came to Missouri sculptor Kris Kuksi with a blank-check commission. “He just said, ‘Do something huge,” told Kuksi to Fast Company.
He said “Collaboration is critical to our work at Nike—within our own teams to build on our ideas, and with outside partners who can help take us to new places. Each relationship brings a different point of view or skill that we’re interested in. Once you go through the creative process together, you always learn something. And you might not even realize what that is until you start the next project.
Sports Champion, from John McEnroe to Kobe Bryant
Nike’s stance has always been to lean on the brand’s roster of elite athletes inform the direction of Swoosh products, and Parker personally enforced this. Parker prioritized his relationship with the Jordans, the Bryants, and the Armstrongs, keeping their feedback at top-of-mind. Speaking to Highsnobiety in 2018, Parker noted “We start with the athlete. The specific brief of solving an athlete’s problem ultimately dictates how a product will look. Oftentimes, that leads to an entirely new aesthetic. That’s what separates us from many other designers. And really, fashion designers have always told us it’s that authenticity that draws them to Nike.”
Kobe Bryant once spoke about a meeting with Parker, in which Bryant was surprised when Parker took out his notebook to sketch during the middle of the conversation. In 1996 as VP of consumer product marketing, Parker helped sign Tiger Woods to a 20-year, $40 million deal. In 2001, Parker was instrumental in recruiting marathoner Paula Radcliffe, who up until recently was the fastest female marathoner of all time. Parker and Tinker Hatfield both liaised closely with John McEnroe when creating the Nike Air Trainer 1, which McEnroe wore faithfully for the majority of his career. When Eliud Kipchoge recently broke the 2 hour barrier for marathon, wearing the Nike Vaporflys, Parker was standing on the finish line in Vienna waiting to congratulate him.
Brand strategist and value creator
One of Parker’s big moments came at an all staff meeting when he declared “Nike is a sports company, rather than a sportswear company”. His message was about a focus on consumers rather than products, having a passion for the sports they play, and enabling them to perform at their best – the ethos behind their original session, and Just Do It famous slogan.
The focus on athletes and optimal performance has also taken Parker close to edge of controversy a number of times. Lance Armstrong’s massive fall from grace, when finally exposed as a drug cheat, happened under Parker’s rule. As more recently, did the demise of Alberto Salazar and the Nike Oregon Project. But then searching for the edge, and staying resilient when things done work out, was always part of Parker’s skillset.
This week he steps down from the CEO role after 14 years of incredible creativity and growth, although staying on as chairman with an ongoing contribution to design and brand development. Over the period since Parker stepped into the office once occupied by maverick founder Phil Knight, to his last day, Nike’s performance has been phenomenal – sales have grown from $14bn to $45bn, 50% of recent growth through direct channels, and emost impressively market cap has grown from $16bn to $145bn.
In his final earnings call to investors last week, Parker reflected on his time and the opportunities ahead. He took great satisfaction that he was leaving on a high. Indeed, the success of the current Nike Vaporfly Next% “supershoe” is a great example of Parker’s impact. Inserting a carbon plate into a new type of ZoomX midsole has created a sensational impact for runners, calculated to improve running performance , speed and efficiency, by at least 4%. Since its launch the stock has risen by 90%, and in recent events, such as the huge Hakone Eikiden in Japan, 85% of all competitors wore the new shoes.
The new CEO of Nike, John Donahoe, starts work tomorrow. He already knows Nike well as a board director, part of a long-planned succession, bring a depth of experience in global strategy and digital technologies. He has 20 years consulting experience at Bain & Co, rising to CEO in 1999, before proving that he can lead real businesses too, at eBay where is now chairman, and most recently at ServiceNow, the highly respected cloud technology innovator.
Nike’s record breaking Vaporfly Next% shoes have adorned the feet of multiple marathon winners since their release in 2017. But according to speculation, they seem likely to be banned when the World Athletics announces new rules surrounding running shoes.
The shoes, worn by Kenya’s Brigid Kosgei when she broke Paula Radcliffe’s women’s marathon record last year, are believed to make its wearers four per cent more efficient. They come with super-thick soles that incorporate carbon-fibre plates that act like springs, while remaining incredibly lightweight – a pair of UK size 9 comes in at 190g. Accordingly, rules that limit the thickness of midsoles and the use of carbon-fibre plates are expected soon.
Performances such as this, along with many other record-breaking runs by those wearing the Vaporfly Next% shoes, has caused concern from non-Nike-sponsored athletes, as well as rival brands. The criticism levelled at the shoes is that it does not fall within the regulation of shoes being “available to all”.
While the expectation is that Kipchoge’s Alphafly shoes – which come with three carbon-fibre plates and an extremely thick midsole – will be banned, along with the modified Vaporfly Next% shoes worn by Kosgei, there may be a moratorium that allows records set in these shoes to stand.
With Kipchoge and Kosgei both due to race at the London Marathon in April, along with many other athletes who might ordinarily be wearing the shoes, the onus is on World Athletics to act quickly.
Nike, which aims to sell $50 billion worth of sportswear this year, capitalized in the 1980s on the controversy around Michael Jordan wearing red and black sneakers that violated the NBA’s “predominantly white” rules.
Nike put black censor bars over the sneakers in TV ads and later re-launched its Air Jordan 1 shoes in a “banned” edition. The brand went on to become a billion dollar business.
What motivates a business leader to embark on strategic transformation?
Sometimes it’s a financial crisis, sometimes it’s the threat from a disruptive competitor, sometimes growth stagnates as markets mature or decline, sometimes it’s the opportunity to ride a new global megatrend, and sometimes it’s the result of proactive strategic planning.
To better understand the dynamics of why and how transformation happens, Innosight, one of the world’s leading strategic innovation firms, has evaluated the strategic change efforts of many companies, seeking to identify best practices across industries and geographies. Their ranking is based on three factors: finding new growth (% of revenue beyond core), repositioning the core (giving the legacy business new life), financial growth (revenue, profit and economic value over the transformation).
Innosight partner, Scott Anthony’s excellent book Dual Transformation describes the essence of this kind of transformation: “What businesses are doing here is fundamentally changing in form or substance. A piece, if not the essence, of the old remains, but what emerges is clearly different in material ways. It is a liquid becoming a gas. Lead turning into gold. A caterpillar becoming a butterfly.”
Ørsted’s transformation from coal to clean energy
Ørsted, the Danish energy company, is ranked #7, the highest ranked European company on the list. They were recently ranked the world’s most sustainable company, which is not bad given that 10 years ago 95% of its energy came from fossil fuels.
In 2012, then known as DONG, Danish Oil and Natural Gas, it found itself in a financial predicament as global overproduction sent gas prices plunging. S&P downgraded the 6,000-employee firm’s credit rating to negative, raising the cost of its considerable debt. The board hired a former leader of the transformation at Lego, Henrik Poulsen, as the new CEO. Whereas some leaders might have gone into crisis management mode, laying off workers until prices recovered, Poulsen recognised the moment as an opportunity for fundamental change.
“We saw the need to build an entirely new company,” Poulsen says. “It had to be a radical transformation; we needed to build a new core business and find new areas of sustainable growth. We looked at the mandate to combat climate change, and we became one of the few companies to wholeheartedly make this profound decision, to be one of the first to go from black to green energy.”
Poulsen emphasized both the short-term and long-term nature of the change. “We looked at the 12 different lines of business we were in and went through them asset by asset, to see where we saw competitive strength. Coal, oil and gas were rapidly eroding as businesses, so we decided to divest eight of our twelve divisions and use the proceeds to reduce our debt.”
The had also started looking beyond its core, and had invested in offshore wind power, but the technology was still too expensive, producing energy that was more than double the price of onshore wind. Under Poulsen, the company embarked on a systematic “cost-out” program to reduce the expense of every aspect of building and running offshore wind farms while achieving scale in this emerging market.
Poulsen renamed the company Ørsted, after the legendary Danish scientist Hans Christian Ørsted, who discovered the principles of electromagnetism. This helped infuse a sense of purpose into the organization that drove it to cut the cost of offshore wind power by 60% while building three major new ocean-based wind farms in the UK and acquiring a leading company in the USA to pioneer North American offshore waters.
Previously 80% owned by the Danish government, Orsted’s IPO in 2016 was one the year’s largest. Net Profits have surged more than $3 billion since 2013, and Orsted is now the world’s largest offshore wind company, with a 30% share of a booming global market.
Innosight’s Top 20 Business Transformers
Netflix … shifted from DVDs by mail into the leading streaming video content service and now a top original content provider.
Adobe … Moved beyond core in creative & document software into digital experiences, marketing, commerce platforms and analytics, while changing its business model from packaged software to cloud subscriptions.
Amazon … initiated “Amazon Web Services” to overcome the cost of infrastructure required to conduct operations. AWS has turned into a surprisingly lucrative profit engine. Amazon has also built an entire ecosystem of products and services enabled by its Prime membership.
Tencent … transformed from an online messenger and video game business to an all-around technology business that has presence in entertainment, autonomous vehicle, cloud computing, and fintech.
Microsoft … transformed from a business model based primarily on selling products, licensees (IP), and devices to a cloud-based platform-as-a-service business.
Alibaba … since inception, it has long positioned itself as an innovation powerhouse, having successfully transformed from an internet e-commerce and retail company to a technology business.
Ørsted … moved from a state-owned oil and gas exploration and production company to stage a 2016 IPO as the largest offshore wind farm company in the world.
Intuit … transformed from a provider of products and services to an online ecosystem of financial services for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
Ping An … established as a financial services and insurance company, Ping An transformed itself into a cloud tech business providing fintech and AI-based medical imaging & diagnostics.
DBS … Transforming from a traditional regional bank to a global digital platform company, around a cultural vision of a “27,000-person startup.” In 2018, crowned “Best Bank in the World.”
AO Smith … shifting focus from its legacy business in automotive parts and motors to seize growth in water technology through M&A.
Neste … a regional oil and gas company transforms into a global leader in renewable biofuels.
Siemens … in 2014, it announced Vision 2020, which detailed an organizational overhaul, restructuring, and strategic shift from energy and industrial manufacturing to digitalization.
Schneider Electric … pursuing a digital transformation that would shift it from a pure hardware supplier to an energy management provider via an open IoT platform
Cisco … has been transforming its business from selling networking products and services to becoming a digital IT solutions provider while also moving into adjacencies.
Ecolab … started out as a producer of carpet cleaning solution, Ecolab has evolved to become a market leader for cleaning and sanitation products as well as a provider of custom solutions for energy and water conservation.
Fujifilm … transformed from a photography-centric firm to a healthcare products and medical imaging company.
AIA Group … transformed from a health insurance provider into a collaborator with consumers by creating AIA Vitality — a major wellness and prevention business.
Dell … during its time as a private company, it shifted from being a hardware company to being a cloud business integrating EMC’s storage management, tripling its value from 2013.
Phillips … split its lighting core from its healthcare growth business, transforming itself into a healthcare technology company.
In more detail, here is the Innosight analysis:
4 major themes for transformation
Transforming large organisations, with a legacy business, Innosight say leaders must identify one or more opportunity areas that are large enough to make a difference and significant enough to inspire a compelling story of change. Within the Transformation 20, there were four distinct themes that emerged – around digital transformation, combating climate change, transforming healthcare, and new fintech-enabled business models.
Overwhelmingly, the biggest theme for growth, especially in core markets, is diving deeply into digital waters by harnessing new business models for the cloud, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and other technologies. Among the 20 companies on the list, half of the firms are transforming by creating new kinds of digital experiences or services that are driving new value for customers.
When it comes to new growth areas, the mandate to combat global climate change or and deal with the ramifications of a warming planet has infused organizations with a transformative purpose. Four of the firms—Ørsted, Ecolab, Neste, and A.O. Smith—transformed by creating new growth through cleantech business models in renewable energy or water services.
The theme of healthcare transformation also proved to be a major global opportunity area—with Philips, AIA Group, Fujifilm and Ping Anserving as prime cases. The shift from traditional sick care business models to preventative care and wellness has proven to be especially powerful for galvanizing organizations.
Finally, the theme of fintech, turning complex financial services into simple, disruptive technologies, proved to be a vital area of new growth, especially in China for firms such as Alibaba and Tencent Holdings, where a new generation of consumers aren’t wed to traditional banking or financial institutions.
How will you drive future strategy, innovation and change? How will you reinvent your business models, brands and experiences to embrace rapidly changing needs, behaviours and aspirations of consumers?
As digital experiences drive a hunger for humanity, as sustainability becomes purposeful and mainstream, and as relevance and meaning are in demand everywhere, what are the real drivers of consumers, and their evolving value equations in 2020?
Here are some of the most interesting 2020 trend reports just published:
Back in 2008 Tesla launched its Roadster, a $100k electric supercar. In 2016 Adidas partnered with Parley for the Oceans to produce a limited-edition line of sneakers made from recycled ocean plastic; only 50 pairs are made. Also in 2016, NYC’s Momofuku Nishi became the first restaurant in the world to offer the Impossible Burger.
Fast-forward to 2019, and Tesla’s Model 3 is a mainstream favourite, the third best-selling car in the UK. Adidas made 11 million pairs of ocean plastic sneakers in 2019. And Impossible Burger is available at over 7,000 Burger King outlets across the USA, demonstrating that plant-based alternatives can taste even better than the ‘real’ thing.
With a little help from some of my trend watching friends, below is a compilation of some of the most interesting innovations of the last 12 months, collectively demonstrating the fusion and application of the many diverse consumer trends:
Automotive
The automotive industry is facing its most profound change in 100 years. Autonomous vehicles, new models of ownership, connected ecosystems and more:
Volvo: Remember when faster was better? When driving was freedom? Volvo’s driver-facing sensors will soon detect and even prevent intoxicated or distracted driving. A divisive but bold statement of brand intent. More
Tencent: Apple and Amazon aren’t the only tech auto shows in town. Thanks to a partnership with 19 automakers, WeChat (with its 1 billion users!) is now accessible to Chinese drivers. Digital superpowers, freed from the screen. More
Toyota: The Tokyo 2020 Olympics will see the Japanese manufacturer showcase its new vehicles. 90% are electric and athletes will be ferried around by an autonomous shuttle. More
Busbot: Getting around an Australian retirement village is much easier. Limited rollouts avoid many of the challenges of full open-road autonomy, while also bringing affordable mobility to groups who are currently under-served. More
Beauty
Consumers want it all. Personalization. Intimate connection with trusted influencers. Activism. Empowerment. Scientific breakthroughs. All-natural, eco-friendly products. New technologies.
L’Oreal: This act of self-disruption from an industry giant ticks so many trend boxes, mixing D2C, personalization, live chat and the gig economy: More
Sephora: The French brand looked to escape influencer fraud and fatigue by creating its #SephoraSquad, a year-long partnership with 24 diverse micro-influencers. More
Shiseido: The company’s new office in Hangzhou (next to Alibaba’s HQ) will enable the beauty brand to access data and accelerate development of products better suited to local tastes. More
Rohto: The Japanese brand’s sunscreen’s selfie-friendly reverse print packaging taps into a very modern customer pain point. Maybe not the most profound innovation, but lots of empathy: More
Electronics
As personal technology reaches a plateau in terms of raw power and basic form, consumers will seek devices with very different benefits: environmental, inclusive, and empowering.
Arçelik: A washing machine with a filter to stop microplastic pollution? And they gave away the technology as an open source solution. More
Zappos: Inspired by an employee, the US shoe brand partnered with Not Impossible Labs to create a portable ‘sonic localizer’ system to help a visually impaired skateboarder. More
Sony: This crowdfunded wearable air conditioning device might seem slightly crazy, but if it gets warm (!) reviews from spectators at the Tokyo Olympics it might just be the next big thing to hit warming streets around the globe. More
Vice: Q is an artificially-synthesised, ‘genderless’ virtual assistant designed to challenge existing stereotypes perpetuated by existing offerings such as Alexa. More
Conalep: Mexico’s National Institute of Technical Education is now offering courses in drone piloting, in order to help create future-proofed job opportunities. More
Fashion
2019 felt like a watershed moment when fashionistas woke up to the need to drastically reduce their environmental impact. New materials, business models, data, technologies and most importantly new consumer expectations:
Vollebak: This t-shirt is made from sustainably-certified wood pulp, printed with ink made from algae, and will decompose in 12 weeks if composted. More
thredUP: The fashion resale website launched its Resale-as-a-Service platform to other retailers. Will this platform play be the trigger that propels the recommerce trend firmly into the mainstream? More
Nike: The Nike Fit app enables customers to measure their feet using augmented reality. It’s been a hell of a wait, but finally we’re seeing AR being used in ways that are actually…useful?! More
Google x Stella McCartney: The British eco-pioneer is deploying Google Cloud’s data analytics to give its designers a more detailed view into the impact of materials in its supply chain. Big data, meet sustainable fashion. More
Unspun: The Hong-Kong based startup makes custom-made jeans for people based on a 20-second Fit3D body scan. Perfect fit combined with zero inventory (and so zero waste!). More
Finance
Fintech disruption is still big, but where previously long-serving incumbents struggled to compete, 2019 saw their decade-long drive to embrace both digital and cultural transformation start bearing fruit. Customers are increasingly able to enjoy convenient, practical, and empathetic customer experiences:
Alice: This app connects to users’ bank accounts and simplifies deducting allowable taxable expenses. Elite employee benefits to lower-paid and poorly-served hourly wage earners. More
Barclays: The UK bank enables customers to block certain spending categories, such as gambling, alcohol. Fintech-style self-disruption and true customer-centricity from an incumbent. More
RHB: This Malaysian bank addressed both a younger generation and inter-generational family dynamics through its Chinese New Year campaign championing a professional esports gamer. More
Free Trial Surfing: This clever app enables people to sign up to free trials with ‘burner’ card details so they don’t need to remember to cancel them to avoid charges. More
Mastercard: Customers will soon be able to display their chosen names on their payment cards, regardless of their birth gender. A ‘small’ but very relevant step on the road to inclusion and acceptance. More
Food and drink
This is one of the most dynamic sectors, with relatively low costs of innovation and high expectations of consumers. New ingredients, new channels, sustainable sourcing and the circular economy, and more.
Nestlé: The confectionery giant’s new 70% dark chocolate product contains no refined sugar. Instead it is sweetened with previously-discarded cacao pulp. More
Lettuce: This Austin-based startup installs low maintenance grow beds in members’ homes, matching owners with willing local gardeners and collecting surplus produce for its zero-waste, hyperlocal subscription meal kits. More
Solar Foods: The Finnish startup will soon launch Solein, a high protein wheat flour-like powder made from CO2 extracted from the air and combined with water, nutrients, and vitamins. More
Returnr: The Australian startup makes it easier to avoid single-use food packaging by enabling customers to ‘rent’ reusable stainless steel bowls and outsource cleaning to the restaurant. More
Perennial: This vitamin-enriched plant-based milk supports the brain health and bone strength of its 50 year old and over audience. More
Healthcare
The consumerisation of healthcare — behaviorally, technologically, culturally — remains the biggest industry trend. People still want world-class ‘traditional’ reactive medical care in an emergency. But innovations that empower people to engage with their health in new ways will bring huge benefits to both individuals and over-stretched healthcare systems.
Seed: The D2C probiotics company launched an Instagram Stories-based ‘certification’ to train influencers in the science behind its products and FTC regulations. More
University of Washington: Researchers launched an app that can detect fluid behind the eardrum using a paper funnel attached to a standard smartphone. More
AXA Insurance: Hong Kong-based patients with social anxiety can access a six-week therapy program. The twist? The sessions are delivered in virtual reality. More
Life Kitchen: Medical treatment is just a small slice of healthcare. This cooking school for cancer patients offers those going through chemotherapy an experience filled with empathy and humanity. More
United State of Women: The Womanikin is a breast attachment for CPR mannequins, designed so that first aid givers can get familiar with giving chest compressions to female bodies. More
Home
Who wants a domestic life that is safer, more sustainable, healthier and more socially connected?. Here are five innovations that give a glimpse of what domestic bliss:
IKEA: Growing awareness is making air pollution the next frontier for wellness. IKEA’s pollution-fighting curtains will push the issue even further into the mainstream. More
Kartell: The furniture brand partnered with software firm Autodesk and designer Philippe Starck to create the world’s first AI-designed chair. More
Wutopia Lab: This Chinese design studio created Blue Heart a ‘shared living room’ for residents in ultra-dense housing. New ‘third place’ opportunities. More
Student.com & Sheffcare: This initiative pairs up students with residents of an elderly care home, because loneliness — like most trends — doesn’t discriminate by demographic. More
Sonny: Will this crowdfunded portable bidet — with its sleek, Apple-esque design — bring bidets to the US market? Perhaps not, but it does signal that every item in the home is ripe for an eco-upgrade. More
Luxury
What starts out in the luxury sector quickly ripples out into the mass-market. High-end aspirations become mainstream expectations. Here are five early warning signals to have on your radar:
Omega: All-natural as the ultimate luxury? The world’s first synthetic ‘spider silk’ watch strap turns that assumption on its head. More
Dapper Labs: Luxury is about scarcity. Which excludes all things digital. Or it did, until the auction of the world’s first piece of blockchain-based ‘digital haute couture’ gave us a glimpse of a new era of digital luxuries. More
Prada: Prada’s launch of its Diversity and Inclusion Advisory Council is a step in the right direction for an industry that’s taken far too many wrong ones. More
Shangri-La: The luxury hotel chain opened a restaurant in Singapore’s Changi airport, showcasing a key part of its offering to a new audience. Which adjacent lanes could you move into? More
BMW: Second hand doesn’t mean second-class. BMW embraced this trend by recycling clips from old ads to promote its pre-owned vehicle offering. More
Media
People now spend near-insane amounts of their daily lives immersed in media. Frivolous yet meaningful; mindless yet self-improving:
Mattel: The maker of Barbie released a line of gender inclusive dolls. Each doll comes with both ‘masculine’ and ‘feminine’ hair and outfits which children are able to combine in various ways. More
BASE Hologram: An Evening With Whitney will see the late singer ‘perform’ a holographic tour in 2020. Another signal that, increasingly, there’s no such thing as impossible. More
ckbk: This Spotify-like subscription service disaggregates cookbooks into their component recipes. Which new business models could you import from adjacent sectors? More
Warner Music: The entertainment giant signed a distribution deal for algorithmically-generated music. Another day, another (creative) job being done by a machine. More
Blizzard: To celebrate the re-release (after 15 years!) of World of Warcraft Classic, the studio helped players find members of their original in-game ‘guilds’. More
Non-profits
The line between businesses and nonprofits is increasingly blurred, thanks to the purpose ‘trend’. And working together can create challenges for nonprofits, but it also drives big ambitions, big budgets and big opportunities on offer, too:
Amber Alerts: Selected Dutch ATMs will show pictures of missing children and encourage citizens to sign up to mobile alerts. Omnichannel relevance meets brand purpose. More
Donate Life: Californian police issued motorists pulled over for minor traffic violations with a ‘Second Chance’ warning ticket. But only if they were registered organ donors. More
McDonald’s: The fast food chain turned to aging nonprofit AARP to help recruit 250,000 new workers in the US, shattering many long-held demographic assumptions in the process. More
Lesswalk: This Singapore-based nonprofit is giving 10,000 bicycles — bought and recycled from failed bike-sharing startups ofo and oBike — to children living in rural Myanmar. More
Lego: Its new Braille Bricks help visually impaired children (and their families and friends) learn braille while playing. Inclusive design at its best. More
Retail
Retailers get obsessed about digital and physical, omni-channel concepts. Consumers just want best-in-class choice, convenience and meaningful experiences.
Hanwha Galleria: The exterior walls of this South Korean mall literally change colour in response to the air pollution: green when low, red when high, showing the power of data and sustainability. More
Starbucks: The coffee chain continues to raise the bar when it comes to employee benefits, which now include various elements covering mental health. Culture drives your brand. More
7-Eleven: Not at home but still want — no, need! — some food or drinks delivered? 7Now Pins are delivery locations in public places, such as parks and malls. On-demand expectations. More
Taobao: The farmers’ market gets a digital makeover. 1,000 rural farmers are now livestreaming to Chinese urbanites hungry for compelling provenance stories about the food they buy. More
Walmart: Smart retailers will find creative ways to celebrate the customer-facing benefits of new technology, as Walmart’s Intelligent Retail Lab did. More
Transport
If ‘mobile’ in the last decade has been primarily about smartphones, in the 2020s it will be about new ways to move physical atoms (i.e. people and goods) around more efficiently, cheaply and cleanly.
Optimus Ride: Moving (crawling?!) at 15 mph, a one-mile distance limit, two human safety supervisors…the Optimus Ride shuttles are no joyride. 16,000+ monthly riders now love autonomous vehicles. More
SBS Transit: Grass roofs are moving from the hippest of eco-dwellings…to buses! Ten buses in Singapore were equipped with living roofs in an eco-conscious, air conditioning cost-cutting move. More
Cyclo: This packable bike helmet makes it convenient for consumers to put safety first. And it’s made from recycled ocean plastic. No wonder it exceeded its Indiegogo funding goal in five days. More
Clear Channel: Stockholm’s Emotional Art Gallery’s algorithm scanned social media and local data to estimate commuters’ emotions, while digital subway billboards displayed real-time art More
Bird: The scooter company is raising the eco-bar by extending its carbon offset beyond the impact of an individual ride, and including delivery and charging. More
Travel
The travel industry is about dreams and identity, but also faces an epic tension between rhetoric and reality, especially when it comes to purpose and authenticity.
KLM: Reminiscent of Patagonia’s ‘Don’t Buy this Jacket Campaign’, the Dutch airline asked its passengers to consider if they really needed to fly, or whether they could take a train or meet via video conference. More
Marriott: Brands touting ‘positive impact’ will look especially hollow if their own establishments play host to human suffering. Marriott trained half a million employees to spot trafficking at its hotels. More
Faroe Islands: The island nation closed to tourists for a weekend, while selected ‘voluntourists’ worked to conserve and restore popular locations. More
Sidekick: Choice saturation. Fake reviews. This South Korean platform lets travelers text a local for real-time recommendations. More
The Moxy: The New York hotel tapped into the popular YouTube phenomenon to give guests a ‘drug-free mental massage’ via free, in-room, celebrity-performed ASMR videos. More
The interaction between man and machine in the future was the theme of this week’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. As the intelligence of machines rises dramatically, new opportunity spaces emerge as traditional sectors overlap, and new possibilities are realised. None more so than in the world of mobility.
In fact the interaction between humans and technology is partly about augmentation, machines enabling us to be more human in many different, but also about the convergence of the two sides. This happens in function and also form. Nature gives fresh inspiration for this convergence showing how ingenuity rises out in our habitats to enable incredible feats.
So to the technology. Leading the dramatic launches was a full-scale prototype of Hyundai and Uber’s flying car.
The egg-shaped vehicle will be able to take off and land vertically, hold four passengers and fly at up to 200 miles per hour. Hyundai is the first global carmaker to partner Uber to create aerial cars for the ride-hailing app’s planned air taxi network. Uber, hopes to open aerial ride bookings to the public in two years.
The two companies plan to show off a full-scale model of the vehicle this week on the trade show floor. Hyundai’s aerial taxi would be able to take off and land vertically, accommodate four passengers and cruise at up to 200 miles per hour. It would be fully electric with a range of 60 miles.
The concept is similar to those designed by Boeing and a handful of other companies in collaboration with Uber Elevate, the ride-hailing company’s aerial division. Uber said it will conduct the first public demonstration of a flying car this year and allow customers to book aerial rides by 2023.
Other highlights at CES:
Toyota plans to build a “city of the future”at the base of Mount Fuji for 2000 complete with an autonomous car lab and smart homes. It unveiled the audacious plan for what it will call “Woven City”, in a reference to its origins as a loom manufacturer, at the big annual technology industry show, CES. “It’s hard to learn something about a smart city if you are only building a smart block,” James Kuffner, chief executive officer for the Toyota Research Institute-Advanced Development, told Reuters.
The “Woven City” idea, under discussion for a year, is aimed at creating safer, cleaner, more fun cities and learning lessons that could be applied around the world, he added. It will have police, fire and ambulance services, schools and could be home to a mix of Toyota employees, retirees and others, Kuffner said. The development, to be built on the site of a car factory that is planned to be closed by the end of 2020, will begin with 2,000 residents in coming years, and also serve as a home to researchers.
Sony has unveiled its own electric vehicle. Called the Sony Vision-S, it’s an electric concept sedan that is meant to showcase the Japanese tech conglomerate’s many different strengths, from entertainment products to camera sensors and more.
In fact, the Vision-S features 33 different sensors inside and outside of the car, multiple widescreen displays, 360 audio, and always-on connectivity, with some pieces coming from industry players like BlackBerry and Bosch. It’s also powered by a “newly-designed EV platform” — which appears to have been engineered by automotive supplier Magna — that Sony says will be able to power other vehicle types, like SUVs. Verge said the outside of the vehicle has some strong Porsche vibes, especially around the headlights, and in side profile it somewhat resembles the Lucid Motors Air. Inside, the Vision-S features a dashboard-spanning screen much like the one that Chinese EV startup Byton is putting in its cars, with screens for rear-seat passengers in the headrests.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1RAdaSFWkM
Samsung is turning any surface into a keyboard using a smartphone’s front facing camera. Selfie Type doesn’t require any peripheral and doesn’t project anything. Instead, it uses the Galaxy’s camera to simply track your hands as you memory type. According to the information posted by a user in Samsung’s community site, “Selfie Type is a technology that utilizes the front camera and AI to analyze finger position and type without physical buttons.”
According to the source, who claims that Samsung will introduce it at CES 2020 this week, only English is currently supported. It seems pretty simple: just put your phone or tablet on a vertical position — or, if you have a Galaxy Fold, set it up in L-mode — and start typing with your fingers pretending you are hitting actual keys. Selfie Type appears to support gestures too, like pinching the air to send a message.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9jqIfxwzq8
The interaction between man and machine in the future, was the topic of the CES Keynote Speech from Ola Källenius, Chairman of the Board of Management of Daimler AG, and head of Mercedes-Benz Cars. His new concept car underlined the theme.
Mercedes Benz’s concept car inspired by the movie Avatar. The Vision AVTR is a concept for mobility in the distant future. translating to ‘advanced vehicle transformation’, and sets to showcase “a new interaction between human, machine and nature” by fusing its exterior, interior and user experience. The result distinguishes a distinctive inside-out design that also references several creatures from the original movie.
“The main thing in my life right now is sustainability. I look at this vehicle and I see the future. it is not just the automotive future with all the wonderful things it could inspire in real production cars, but also an aspirational future for humans. For a major manufacturing company like Mercedes-Benz to make this commitment is awesome and I think it should be celebrated. When I look at this beautiful car, I see the physical manifestation of the velocity of an emotional, spiritual idea. They manifest and inspire” explained James Cameron, director, screenwriter and producer of Avatar.
Elon Musk has become the best future storyteller of today’s business world.
His businesses are founded on future ideas, building for future possibilities. They start with an inspiring purpose, be it SpaceX’s desire to sustain life through a new civilisation beyond Earth, or Tesla’s drive to accelerate the shift to clean energy.
SpaceX might have created a satellite launch business that is around 10 times cheaper than NASA, but he uses this capability to tell a far bigger story. They are just practice runs, for a much greater mission to Mars. Who can forget the dramatic moment when he landed his returning Falcon 9 spacecraft back on an incredibly small platform in the middle of the ocean? Or when the much more powerful Falcon Heavy launched a (Tesla) car into perpetual orbit playing David Bowie’s Life on Mars?
Musk writes his Master Plan for his businesses, publishing them on his blog, and updating them every so often. His style is informal but informative, visionary but practical, combining scientific logic and technical facts.
In 2006 he wrote his initial Master Plan for Tesla:
Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive
Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price
Use thatmoney to create an affordable, high volume car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is ten times safer than manual
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren’t using it
Musk can appear quite humble, quite nervous, when he speaks in public, but his bold ideas portray a great confidence.
When he first talked about the Hyperloop, he explained the concept relative to what we already knew, the magnetic levitating Bullet trains that speed between Tokyo and Osaka, and then went further. Imagine if it was in a frictionless tube, at 750 mph, taking 12 minutes from downturn San Francisco to Los Angeles. And then he showed us the video simulation. It almost felt real. We believed in the possibility, and how it would be better.
Strategies are stories. Brands are stories. Business cases are stories. Project plans are stories. When people say “tell me your story” they are rarely asking about where do you, or your company, come from; more likely they are interested in where you are going.
Tesla Master Plan, Part 1
From Startup to Mainstream: With the proceeds of selling Paypal burning in his pocket, and determined to change the status quo, Musk launched Tesla in 2003, at the same time he was building SpaceX.
1. Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensiveThe Roadster, Redefining The Electric Car: Tesla debuted the Roadster, a luxury electric sports car, in 2008. The vehicle was the first mass-produced electric car to use lithium-ion batteries, and the first to travel more than 200 miles on a single charge.
Just as he envisioned, the Roadster immediately broke preconceptions about what an electric car could be. The vehicle set the world distance record of 501 km for a production electric car on a single charge in October 2009; It could accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in less than four seconds.
Tesla sold 2,450 of these high-end sports cars at a base price point of $109,000, and funneled the revenue into development of the Model S.The company stopped producing the Roadster in 2012, and plans to replace it with a second-generation version in 2019. Even so, the original Roadster served its purpose by raising eyebrows, funding the Model S, and setting Tesla’s Master Plan into motion.
Musk put as much of the profits from the Roadster as possible back into research and development, with the aim of creating a slightly more affordable but still luxurious family-oriented car.
2. Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower priceModel S, Setting the Standard for Luxury Cars: Telsa released the Model S, a second-generation luxury vehicle at a lower price point, in 2012. The new model became one of the top-selling all-electric vehicles in the world and won numerous awards, including Time Magazine’s Best 25 Inventions of the Year Award in 2012 and Motor Trend Car of the Year in 2013.
Model X, Addressing the Other Half of the Car Market: Tesla rolled out the Model X, a luxury SUV sporting falcon-wing doors, in September 2012. While the model was absent from the company’s original master plan, Musk couldn’t ignore the fact that SUVs comprised 50% of the vehicle market.The car was difficult to manufacture, and the pace of deliveries suffered. Soon after its release, a litany of glitches appeared. While many were related to the falcon-wing doors (such as the possibility of injury while closing), customers also reported issues with stubborn front doors, frozen touch-screens, and underperforming heaters. Elon now refers to the Model X as “step 2.5” of his Master Plan, and claims that Tesla’s “hubris” in adding so many new features was the source of its flaws.
3. Use that money to create an affordable, high volume carModel 3, Mass-Market Adoption: With the Model S and Roadster under its belt and the Model X behind it, Tesla is now working on the key piece of its strategy—a high-volume car with a low price point. Meant for the masses, the Model 3 will start at a mere $35,000 before government incentives.
More than 100,000 pre-orders for the Model 3 flooded in sight-unseen in the 24 hours before Musk even displayed the prototype in March 2016. There were roughly 400,000 total pre-orders as of May 2017.
Production of the Model 3 is slated to begin in mid-2017 and ramp up to 500,000 cars per year in 2018. The first deliveries are scheduled for late 2017.
4. Provide solar powerTesla Acquires SolarCity for a “Whole-Home” Energy Solution: While the Powerwall can work in concert with solar panels and Tesla car chargers, truly seamless integration would require a merge between SolarCity and Tesla, Musk decided. Tesla bought SolarCity in 2016, moving Musk one step closer to his vision of a comprehensive energy solution for consumers, complete with rooftop solar generation, battery storage, and electric vehicle charging. SolarCity is slated to begin producing solar panels at its own gigafactory in Buffalo, New York in the summer of 2017.
Re-Inventing Solar for the Mass Market: With the other pieces of the renewable energy puzzle in place, Musk felt it was it was time to take rooftop solar to the next level. That meant a differentiated solar product with curb appeal for the masses—the solar roof.
Tesla rolled out roof tiles with invisible solar cells to widespread acclaim in October 2016. The tiles provide greater coverage with a seamless, integrated aesthetic. Homeowners can choose from four different styles that mimic traditional shingles. Made of tempered glass, they’re also quite tough; the tiles are designed to withstand hail impacts of up to 200 mph. Tesla’s solar roof lasts longer than a traditional roof, and at a lower cost when factoring in the electricity it generates.
The solar roof product was approved for permitting and installations by from Underwriters Laboratories (UL) in May 2017, and installations will begin in California in June 2017. Inventory has already sold out well into 2018.
Tesla Master Plan, Part 2
With the company’s initial goals well on their way to fruition, Musk publicly expanded his Master Plan in a 2016 blog post.
1. Integrate Energy Generation and Storage
Home storage: Storage has long been considered the “holy grail” for solar. When paired with storage, intermittent renewables like solar and wind can be just as reliable as energy based on fossil fuels. Storage can also sync solar production (which peaks at midday) with demands on the grid (which spike in the morning and evening).
While there are various ways to store energy, batteries are the only practical option for homes. Still, household-sized batteries remained expensive and difficult to maintain. Musk knew that solving storage would change the game for solar.
He achieved this goal in 2015 when Tesla released the Powerwall, a rechargeable lithium-ion battery for residential storage, and the Powerpack, a larger version for commercial and utility-scale projects.
The attractive, sculpture-like Powerwall simply mounts to an external or internal wall, and requires little maintenance. It debuted at an astonishing $3,000, and sold out through the following year almost immediately.
Scaled Battery Production: Musk knew that making batteries attractive and affordable wasn’t enough—rooftop solar with storage had to meet or beat the utilities on cost per watt. That meant large-scale production.
In 2013, Tesla announced plans to build a massive “gigafactory” near Reno, Nevada. While the facility is still under construction, it began producing battery cells for Powerwalls and Powerpacks in January 2017. The factory is about 30% complete, with roughly 4.9 million square feet of operational space planned. That figure may eventually double. Even at its originally planned footprint, the facility is the world’s largest building by square footage. Boeing’s plant in Everest, Washington comes in second at 4.3 million square feet.
The massive facility will manufacture 35GWh of battery cells and 50GWh of packs per year by 2020, all with renewable energy. Production at the gigafactory will likely slash the cost of batteries by more than 30%. A total of just 100 such facilities could provide the storage needed to transition the entire world to sustainable energy.
While Tesla can’t build all 100 of them, Gigafactory 1 is just the beginning. The company will also release plans for 2-4 new gigafactories later this year. Musk is hoping that other companies follow his lead and build their own gigafactories to address the world’s energy needs.
2. Expand Into All Forms of Ground-Based Transportation
With the SolarCity deal locked in and construction on Gigafactory 1 underway, Tesla could focus on the next phase of its Master Plan—expanding its line of vehicles. A full transition from fossil fuels to clean energy would require heavy-duty electric trucks and vehicles for shipping goods, in addition to passenger sedans and SUVs.
Tesla Semi. In December of 2017, Musk unveiled the Tesla Semi. Musk projects the new vehicle will beat diesel trucks on cost per mile, and has an estimated range of up to 500 miles. Tesla plans to begin production of the vehicle in 2019.
Next-Gen Tesla Roadster. At the Tesla Sami unveil event, Elon Musk surprised the audience by revealing a refresh of the car that originally launched Tesla, the Roadster. Boasting a record-braking 0-60 mph acceleration of 1.9 seconds and 620 miles of range, the the new Roadster aimed to provide “the hardcore smackdown” to internal combustion engine vehicles.
Cybertruck. On November 21, 2019 Tesla launched its entry into the lucrative pickup market with the unveil of Cybertruck. “It doesn’t look like anything else,” proclaimed Elon once the truck came onstage. As the demonstration continued, it became clear that the Cybertruck did not have the specs and performance of anything else, either. Drawing from innovations at SpaceX, the Cybertruck abandoned the traditional body on frame design of all other cars in favor of cold-Rolled stainless-steel exoskeleton.
During a demonstration gone awry, Franz von Hozhausen threw a steel ball that shattered two of the trucks windows. Between the botched demonstration and the futuristic cyberpunk appearance of the truck, the unveil made waves across the media, internet, and cultural zeitgeist.
3. Vehicle Autonomy
Musk plans to roll out autonomous capability as soon as possible, and not just for the coolness factor—he’s primarily concerned with safety. Tesla will integrate self-driving components such as cameras, radar, and sonar with all of its vehicles as the technology evolves, he reports. Autonomous systems will be fail-operational, meaning that a vehicle will still drive itself safely if a component system breaks. While it will be some time before self-driving vehicles become street-legal, Tesla cars will be ready.
“I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future,” Musk writes on Tesla’s blog. “The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.”
4. Sharing
Once your car is self-driving, you can put it to work for you when you’re not using it, Musk says. It will essentially be an “Uber driver,” but in Tesla’s shared fleet. Your Tesla may eventually end up paying for itself, meaning that anyone could afford to buy one.
There is a clock ringing deep inside a mountain.
It is a huge clock, hundreds of feet tall, designed to tick for 10,000 years.
Every once in a while the bells play a melody. Each time the chimes ring, it’s a melody that has never been played before. Its chimes have been programmed to not repeat themselves for 10,000 years.
Most times it rings when a visitor has wound it, but the clock hoards energy from a different source and occasionally it will ring itself when no one is around to hear it. It’s anyone’s guess how many beautiful songs will never be heard over its 10 millennial lifespan.
The 10,000 Year Clock is real. It is now being built inside a mountain in western Texas, the project of the Long Now foundation, and funded by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos
The Long Now Foundation itself is the brainchild of inventor and engineer Danny Hillis, who launched the non-profit organisation to build the clock. The foundation has over 3,300 members who are supporting the project, but Bezos is by far the most prominent and seemingly deep-pocketed, kicking in a projected $42 million, according to a Wired profile of the Clock.
The 10,000 Year Clock is the first of many millennial clocks the designers hope will be built around the world and throughout time. There is a second site for another clock already purchased at the top of a mountain in eastern Nevada, a site surrounded by a very large grove of 5,000-year-old bristlecone pines.
Appropriately, bristlecone pines are among the longest-lived organisms on the planet. The designers of the clock in Texas expect its chimes will keep ringing twice as long as the oldest 5 millennia-old bristlecone pine.
Ten thousand years is about the age of civilization, so a 10,000 Year Clock would measure out a future of civilization equal to its past. That assumes we are in the middle of whatever journey we are on – an implicit statement of optimism.
Another project of Long Now is Long Bets, in which anyone get bet on or predict the future.
We live in the most incredible time.
More change in the next 10 years than the last 250 years. Technologies with the power to help us leap forwards in unimaginable ways. To transform business, to drive radical innovation. to accelerate growth and achieve progress in the broader world too.
Artificial intelligence and robotics will come together with new mindsets and business models to disrupt everything from entertainment to education, healthcare and travel. For businesses, large and small, it creates a new playing field, with many new possibilities. For people, young and old, it brings new challenges and opportunities. For leaders, it demands new perspectives, new values, and radical new thinking.
“Business Recoded” is about having the courage to achieve more. It is about stepping up to see further ahead, to explore more radical ideas, to discover new talents, to seize bigger opportunities, to have more influence, and to positively amplify your impact.
Daring to be more.
Going beyond the ordinary to achieve extra ordinary results. It requires new thinking, and new approaches. It demands change. It probably requires that you are the change. Leading yourself and your business to a new place, to win in today and tomorrow’s world.
It’s for people who want to shape the future in their own vision, to shape it to their advantage. And to realise, but also extend, their own potential.
“Business Recoded” is about rising up to lead the future of your business … There are 7 new codes for business leaders … 7 ways to raise their game, that we will explore:
Winning … to rise above the pursuit of progress through incrementalism, to develop a future mindset, a forwards orientation, redefining success and how to achieve it.
Sensing … to rise above the chaos of change to see the drivers of tomorrow, making sense of complexity and uncertainty, finding the best new opportunities.
Framing … to rise above the limitations of business as a profit machine, to capture a higher purpose, guided by the desire, strategies and choices, to make life better.
Creating … to rise above the obsession for technologies, whilst harnessing their intelligence and capabilities, to innovate more radically for people and society.
Delivering … to rise above the limitations of big and small, incumbent or start-up, transforming organisations, fusing brands and networks with speed and agility.
Teaming … to rise above what we each contribute separately, to harness the power of diversity and collaboration, people and platforms, achieving more together.
Leading … to rise up to be the leader of the future business, with courage to embrace change and progress, inspire and enable others, finding your own magic.
What inspired me to write the book?
Business people rise through their careers as functional specialists, until the point when they step up to become business leaders. As they join the leadership team they shift from experts to generalists. Like a T Shape, they pivot from their vertical specialism, to horizonal leadership. Their role becomes much broader, more strategic, responsible for the whole business and its future. This requires a huge shift in mindset and capability.
In my role as Academic Director of IE Business School’s flagship program, the Global Advanced Management Program, I have developed a deep insight and practical journey for business people preparing to make this shift, stepping up to lead their business. Over 4 weeks I work with them, from all regions and sectors, preparing them to lead in a fast changing world, to challenge existing paradigms, to have the courage to lead the future. The audience within this role is significant, as well as being aspirational for many others.
More generally, as we look across the world at a new generation of businesses – from Airbnb to Babylon, Alibaba to Bytedance – we see new ways to innovate and grow. In particular, many of the new approaches come from the growth markets of Asia, bringing new behaviours, and also fresh insights and inspirations for readers. Equally significant are the incumbent, monolithic corporates – like Disney and GE, LVMH and Microsoft – where we see leaders needing to step up challenge the norms of today, and reinvent their organisations for the future. It is about the ideas, strategies and innovations, but also the implementation, the transformation and delivery, and impact.
Most inspiring and useful are the individual stories. Real people like Ali Parsi and Emily Weiss, Mary Barra and Satya Nadella, from backgrounds and situations not dissimilar to readers. How did they, and are they currently, doing it?
The book is built around 7 codes, a series of ways in which these leaders need to step up to create and deliver a better future, for themselves and their business. The insights come from the personal stories of 35 contemporary business leaders from around the world, decoding what they did, and are doing, both personally and collectively within their organisations. It combines inspiring ideas and practical application. Both the stories and tools are supported through online resources and live events.
Learning from some of the world’s most extraordinary leaders
35 of today’s most innovative and influential business leaders provide deep insights how they have transformed business, markets and themselves – responding to a changing world, but also shaping their markets to their advantage. They range from Softbank’s Masayoshi Son to Emotiv’s Tan Le, BlackRock’s Larry Fink to Patagonia’s Yves Chouinard, GM’s Mary Barra and Disney’s Bob Iger, Halo Top’s Justin Woolverton and EcoAlf’s Javier Goyeneche, LMVH’s Bernard Arnault to Haier’s Zhang Ruimin.
Here are a few of them:
Emily Weiss, the Vogue columnist who turned her social media following into Glossier, the peer to peer beauty business that is disrupting an entire industry.
Satya Nadella, the Indian-born Microsoft CEO, who has embraced a growth mindset to reinvent the tech giant, making it the world’s most valuable company, again.
Jessica Tan, co-CEO of Ping An, describes the Chinese giant’s transformation from an insurance tab technology company, building on the evolving role in finance in everyday life.
Ali Parsi is founder of Babylon Health which is harnessing the power of AI and mobile platforms to reimagine the healthcare experience, massively reduce costs and improve personalised care.
Katrina Lake is shaking up the fashion retail world with Stitch Fix. Sign up to her online business, and she will send you a box of new fashion items every month, and you send back what you don’t want.
Ilkka Paananan has been described as “the least powerful CEO in the world” because of Supercell’s highly creative and empowered culture.
Zhang Ruimin is founder of electronic home appliances firm Haier Group. As a nuclear physicist he shared with me an unconventional analogy of creating the future of organisations – based on quantum mechanics.
Hooi Ling Tan is co-founder of Grab, and discusses here her journey from McKinsey to HBS and dream to succeed back home in South East Asia, growing the ride-hailing platform and digitilising the region’s economy has helped empower both drivers and customers
“Business Recoded: Have the courage to create a better future for yourself, and your business” by Peter Fisk is published by Wiley in Summer 2020. Keynotes, workshops and consulting are also available.
In many ways, the world is getting better every day, and at an explosive rate, according to Cato Institute senior fellow Johan Norberg as he described in an article for the Wall Street Journal. This is contrary to mainstream sentiment, where many pundits clamour about democracy falling apart, climate catastrophe threatening our very existence, and capitalism failing us.
Data show the past decade has been a story of human flourishing and progress. Here are 6 facts about human progress that give us reason to be optimistic heading into 2020:
1. Extreme Poverty Is Plummeting
Extreme poverty rates—defined as living on less than $1.90 per day—are falling and continue to fall. From 1990 to 2015, the global extreme poverty rate fell from 36 percent to 10 percent. In 2018, it fell to 8.6 percent. This means more than 137,000 people escape extreme poverty every day.
2. More Than Half the World Is Middle Class
This might not shock you at first, but consider that September 2018 was the first time in human history that more than 50 percent of the global population was considered middle class, which amounts to about 3.8 billion people. One huge benefit of this is the demand the middle class places on the global economy, resulting in more entrepreneurial opportunities and increased commerce.
To put this in perspective, only 1.8 billion were considered middle class in 2009. That’s only 26 percent of the global population, meaning proportionally, the percentage of total global population considered middle class grew 92 percent from 2009 to 2018.
Global life expectancy increased by more than three years in the past 10 years, mostly thanks to prevention of childhood deaths. According to the U.N., the global mortality rate for children under 5 declined from 5.6% in 2008 to 3.9% in 2018. A longer perspective shows how far we’ve come. Since 1950, Chad has reduced the child mortality rate by 56%, and it’s the worst-performing country in the world. South Korea reduced it by 98%.
4. Climate-Related Deaths Are Falling
Norberg also addresses the question, “Hasn’t this all come at the cost of a despoiled environment?” “No,” he says. “At a certain point developed countries start polluting less.” To make the point, he cites the falling rate of climate-related mortalities.
Death rates from air pollution declined by almost a fifth world-wide and a quarter in China between 2007 and 2017, according to the online publication Our World in Data.
Annual deaths from climate-related disasters declined by one-third between 2000-09 and 2010-15, to 0.35 per 100,000 people, according to the International Database of Disasters—a 95% reduction since the 1960s. That’s not because of fewer disasters, but better capabilities to deal with them.
5. Life Is Getting Better in the World’s Poorest Countries
Data from the World Bank show continued progress in the world’s poorest countries, especially in the past two decades. Access to basic drinking water has increased, as has electricity, sanitation, and clean cooking fuel. Data also show decreasing rates of poverty and childhood mortality.
6. The Cost of Starting a Business Has Plummeted in Developing Economies
Burdensome and onerous regulations can prevent individuals from starting their own business, which is one of the best ways to alleviate poverty. Not only is it tricky for the entrepreneur to navigate around excessive red tape, it also ends up costing them more. Thankfully, the cost of starting a business has drastically declined, especially in developing economies. In low- and middle-income economies, the average cost of starting a business was 141.76 percent of income-per-capita in 2004. In 2019, it is now just 30.85 percent.