Peter Fisk

Driving these opportunities are a range of uncertainties and assumptions. In a world of dramatic change, we increasingly see quantum shifts in thinking and capability. But it also requires a reflection on purpose, and what we really mean by growth, prosperity and wellbeing.

• Growth … considering not just our outputs, but our impacts too, or net-positive growth.
• Prosperity … safe and secure, wealth but also more personalised, and society’s overall gains.
• Wellbeing … beyond physical and mental health, to embrace progress for ourselves and each other.

Some of the key uncertainties include

On Monday I landed in Istanbul for a two-day work trip. 4 hours later, the earthquake struck. 4am. It was 1000 km away, I felt nothing from my hotel bed.

At breakfast, a few hours later, people were staring intently at their mobile phones. I didn’t have time to catch the news as I woke, and at that time nobody was reporting the scale of what had happened.

Taking in such a disaster is not easy.

My Turkish hosts were deeply concerned, but wanted to keep going. We started as planned at 9am.

We tried to explore what we could do to help. The textile business who I was working with wanted to send a million items of warm clothing immediately. The logistics of doing so were much less clear. But soon plans started to swing into action. To leverage the resources of the business, to do what we could.

3 days later, now sitting in Sweden, and the true scale of what happened is now much more apparent. I have been reflecting on how to best express my feelings on this week’s tragedy in Turkey and Syria, one of the worst natural disasters of this century.

Turkey is close to my heart. I have many friends there. In fact I’ve been visiting for almost 20 years, almost since the last huge earthquake. That time much closer to Istanbul.

I deeply admire the people, their history, their courage, their stories. They certainly don’t have an easy time.

It is very difficult to speak about such a disaster, it takes time to process, and you wonder what you can do from a distance. Yet we all can take urgent action to contribute towards minimizing the impact of this terrible event.

My friends in Turkey have recommended to donate through AKUT or Ahbap in order to make sure help gets directly and fast to the people who need it most. In the UK, donations are being coordinated by DEC.

Together we can help each other in times of need, and over time, work to make the world a better place.

I’m sending my best wishes to all my friends in Turkey, at this incredibly challenging moment.

8 years ago, a team at outdoor clothing brand Patagonia, with a mission to “save our home planet” started to study the environmental impacts of micro plastics.

With every load of laundry, millions of microfibres, each less than 5 mm long, wash down the drain. Some are filtered out at water treatment plants, but others end up in the ocean, where fibres from synthetic fabric make up a surprisingly large amount of plastic pollution – 35%, by one estimate.

Patagonia, of course, are a leading manufacturer of fleece jackets, from where many of those microfibres emerge.

Patagonia and Samsung have now joined forces to flight the microplastics that emerge from clothes.

Microplastics as a result of clothes washing has to date not received the same awareness campaign compared to other sustainability efforts, such as water-saving technologies. When synthetic textiles are washed, microplastics from garments including stretchy denim, fleeces, nylon and polyester will all see microplastics end up in the waterways. Even delicate cycles release copious amounts of plastics.

Add-on filters for washing machines and protective laundry bags are just some of the solutions that are now available to help capture some of the microplastics released during washing.

Samsung says that they are working with Patagonia on a feasible, effective and expandable way to combat the microplastics that result from textiles and laundry. Samsung is designing new machines that minimise the impact of microplastics.

The release of microplastics from synthetic clothes is mainly caused by the mechanical and chemical stresses that fabrics undergo during a washing process in a laundry machine, which lead to the detachment of microfibres from the yarns that constitute the textile.

Last year Samsung pledged it would accelerate the development of eco-conscious home appliances through innovative products and services that can be used in everyday life.

The Patagonia and Samsung collaboration will see select machines using a new filter system and cycle, with both companies look at reducing micro plastics by up to 54%. The washing machines are expected to be available later this year.

Update: see also this Fast Company article.

The fashion industry produces almost 20% of the world’s wastewater and is responsible for 2-8% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the United Nations.

Natural fibres like cotton and wool require significant land and water; and synthetic fibres, such as nylon, are derived from oil, gas, or coal in an energy-intensive chemical process. Producing a pair of jeans requires about 2,000 gallons of water, more than enough to supply a person with eight cups of drinking water per day for ten years.

If nothing is done, the fashion industry will account for more than a quarter of the world’s carbon footprint by 2050.

According to the UN, the average consumer buys 60% more pieces of clothing today than 15 years ago, and uses each item only half as long. That means we’re throwing away more clothes than we know what to do with, as the mountains of used garments washing up on African beaches attest to. According to one estimate, consumers in the UK keep their clothes only 2.2 years, on average.

Other surveys show garments being tossed after being worn only seven times. Around the world, a truckload of textiles is landfilled or incinerated every second, according to a European Commission strategy paper on sustainable textiles. The paper predicts that the consumption of clothing and footwear is expected to increase 63% by 2030, making recycling a more urgent imperative than ever.

Here are some of the most interesting reports on the future of textiles and fashion:

• The State of Fashion 2023 by BOF and McKinsey
• Future of Fashion 2022 by CB Insights
• A New Textiles Economy by Ellen McArthur Foundation
• Smart Fabric Textiles by MDPI
• Trends Kaleidoscope 2023 by Peter Fisk
• 250 Companies to Inspire You by Peter Fisk

Fashion used to be all about style, typically driven by luxury brands and premium designers. Fashion was a statement about who we are, or want to be. It was aspirational, desirable and largely superficial.

Today, its about much more. Products (and services) that can improve our lives.

Take Veja shoes for example, the fashion-essential white sneakers, made with sustainable Amazonian rubber, constructed in Brazil, by a French company. It’s good for the world, and it makes a statement about what we believe in ourselves.

Many brands still stand out for beautiful products, but also with an inspiring, innovative story too. Often, it is retail brands rather than product brands who can tell this story best, and also have more scope to innovate.

Consider Farfetch, founded in 2007 by the Portuguese entrepreneur Jose Neves, the luxury marketplace that partners with small boutiques around the world, poured its profits into sustainability initiatives, including acquiring the resale technology company Luxclusif to power its own secondhand business, Second Life, and launching an in-house eco-friendly label, There Was One, (created by Italy’s New Guards Group, exclusively for Farfetch) which creates durable basics.

Here are some of the most interesting reports:

• The State of Fashion 2023 by BOF and McKinsey
• Future of Fashion 2022 by CB Insights
• A New Textiles Economy by Ellen McArthur Foundation
• Smart Fabric Textiles by MDPI
• Trends Kaleidoscope 2023 by Peter Fisk
• 250 Companies to Inspire You by Peter Fisk

Sustainable and desirable

The average shopper now buys 60% more clothes than they did 50 years ago. And wears only 30% of of them, typically 5-6 times before disposal. The fashion industry has been a major contributor to climate change and biodiversity loss—which means the industry’s sustainability efforts are critical to our planet’s health. The fashion industry produces almost 20% of the world’s wastewater and is responsible for 2-8% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the United Nations.

On, the Swiss sportswear business, born in Switzerland seven years ago, has become the fastest growing global running brand. Ithas launched a 100% recyclable, bio-based performance running shoe.  Some claimed it was impossible. But we chose to Dream On. The Cloudneo is now available via subscription to our Cyclon™ circularity program. Run. Recycle. Repeat.

 

Designer Tracy Reese took the radical step of moving her HQ from New York to Detroit as part of her mission to transform the city into a hub of ethical fashion manufacturing. Johannesburg-based designer Thebe Magugu used his collections to narrate stories about politics and history; for his 2021 collection, he interviewed South African women who worked as spies during apartheid, creating outfits that spoke to issues of gender and colonialism.

Some brands focused on creatively responding to consumers’ unmet needs. Myya, for instance, created a luxurious lingerie shopping experience for breast cancer patients, who historically have been forced to buy prosthetics and specialized bras at medical supply stores. Figs designed tasteful and comfortable scrubs for medical professionals, cultivating a loyal following of 1.7 million customers who appreciate the care that has gone into these outfits.

Denim brand Good American recognized that women’s bodies fluctuate in size 31 times over the course of their lives, forcing them to buy new clothes. The brand launched its Always Fits jeans and swimwear collections, which are designed to span four sizes, ensuring they look flattering even as customers’ bodies change.

Shoe brand Hoka developed by two former Salomon executives in Annoy, France, has paid close attention to runners’ needs, developing new foams and carbon-fibre plates that give them extra propulsion, without sacrificing comfort. While the industry sought minimalist designs, it went for a maximalist (lots of cushioning!) approach.

Direct and realtime

Lets talk about Shein. Forget fast fashion, this is realtime. In fact most items are not even made when ordered, but then made and shipped within 24 hours, direct to your door. The $100 billion Chinese brand produces ultra-cheap clothes at ultra-fast speed, creating an ultra-big hype on social media. The Haul. TikTok on steroids. There’s waste, and human rights, and more. But there also some insights to learn from – AI predictive, on demand, social influence.

Gymshark is now 10 years old, but Ben Francis’ business continues to thrive, built on an online platform selling direct to consumers, fuelled by social media, and is now extending into physical stores. In 2020, the company was valued at over £1 billion.

Virtual and metaverse

While Zuckerberg’s Meta vision resulted in a 70% fall in his company’s share price, the web3-enabled world is taking shape with brands like Ledger and The Dematerialised. Nike acquired RTFKT to merge physical and virtual worlds. The latest evolution of the Nike Adapt platform features auto-lacing, haptic feedback, enhanced lighting, gesture control, walk detection, wireless charging, NFC link, App connectivity, AI/ML algo, and Move to Earn.

Dress X became the world’s largest digital fashion store targeting Gen Z awho seek digital, sustainable, and affordable fashion – even if it’s virtual. The company was named one of the finalists of LVMH Innovation Award 2022 in the category 3D/Virtual Product Experience & Metaverse.

 

Retailers as brands

Farfetch stocks goods from various boutiques big and small in over 50 different countries. It is stepping out with its very own in-house fashion brand. Dubbed ‘ There Was One ‘ the line takes inspiration from elevated classics and includes tailored blazers, soft slip dresses, denim jackets, and zippered leggings, and draws from the platform’s data-driven insights on what customers are actively searching for on Farfetch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-8XTsvBrRU

 

Brands beyond products

Brands are becoming increasingly independent of products, and more about consumers and communities. Take gaming brands for example. They define a lifestyle, culture, value set. Take 100 Thieves. The gaming brand collaborates with Gucci – including a limited-edition backpack from the Gucci Off The Grid collection—made from recycled and sustainably sourced materials— in a new shade of bright red featuring a distinctive circular patch with the 100 Thieves logo.

Brands with stories

ISKO, a brand of Turkey’s Sanko Group, is the world’s largest producer of denim fabric, with 250 million meters of fabric a year. It says it “creates the soul of jeans, the essence of the most popular fashion style that has become universal.” It is a great example of building an ingredient brand, in a way that the premium ingredient enhances the core brand. Read more.

Outerknown seeks to make clothing differently. Created by world champion surfer Kelly Slater in 2015, with the goal of creating high-quality, sustainable fashion that would stand up to any conditions—including those you’ll find in the water. The brand’s clothing is made using eco-conscious materials like organic cotton and hemp fibres, as well as recycled polyester derived from recycled plastic bottles.  Their jeans are made at the world’s cleanest denim facility, using less water, fewer chemicals, and organic cotton. They guarantee S.E.A. JEANS for life. Now your most comfortable jeans are also your most sustainable.

Cool and conscious

18 years ago, VEJA‘s founders decided to travel to the Amazon rainforest and meet the producers of wild rubber in person, the same rubber we use in every one of our VEJA soles.​ ​ Those producers protect the forest and live in harmony with it. This rubber, extracted from forest trees, is a completely ecological raw material.​ Last year, a team of VEJA members traveled to the Amazon rainforest to discover the Chico Mendes reserve.​ One of the many reserves that VEJA works to keep the Amazon rainforest alive.​ These families of rubber producers we work with are paid 4 times more than the market price.​

Vestiaire Collective is banning fast fashion from being bought, sold or listed on the platform. “We say no to a system that supports overconsumption, poor quality and over production. Its mission is to drive change from within the fashion industry. We aim, over the next 3 years, to become a fast fashion-free platform that celebrates quality, craftsmanship and sustainability.”

Fabrics and production

Swiss innovator HeiQ creates some of the most high performance textile technologies in the market today. Founded in 2005 as a spin-off of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich. Two examples: HeiQ Smart Temp provides textiles with the ability to dynamically respond to body heat, keeping you cool and dry when you are hot, and retaining body heat when you get chilly. This keeps you comfortable at all times. HeiQ Clean Tech makes processing of textiles more ecological, improves productivity and efficiency of textile manufacturing, and helps to significantly lower CO2 emission. In many cases by more than 30%. HeiQ AeoniQ makes yarn from cellulosic raw materials in a process that captures five tons of carbon for each ton of yarn. It operates a pilot plant with a capacity of 100 tons per year and plans a giga-factory for 2025

Swedish company Renewcell recently opened the world’s first commercial-scale textile recycling plant, turning old clothes that would have gone to landfill into a new sustainable material called circulose. The factory process, which also saves some 90 billion liters of fresh water a year, is based on a raft of custom-made ABB technologies.

MAS is one of the world’s leading textile creators and manufacturers, promoting unconventional idea-generation to inspire the world’s fashion and retail brands. Innovation and sustainability are key. MAS is globally recognised as a pioneer of women’s empowerment in the global apparel industry through the award winning programme – Women Go Beyond, improving and sustaining employee livelihoods, nurturing communities, whilst working aggressively to identify and minimise the environmental impact of our operations and products. MAS owns the world’s first purpose built eco-manufacturing plant – Thurulie. Their lean driven, empowered and people-centric culture facilitates innovation throughout the value chain. The strategic investment portfolio of businesses includes raw materials, brands and private industrial parks, with an active presence across Asia, Middle East, North America and Africa.

Infinited Fiber is a Finnish biotech with the technology to turn old clothes into new, super versatile, high-quality textile fibres that look and feel like cotton –  regenerating cotton into Infinna (TM).  “It’s like some kind of magical Willy Wonka machine. Throw in your old clothes, or used cardboard boxes, and they magically become my new T-shirt or jeans” 

Vegea was founded in 2016 in Milan, Italy, creating an alternative to leather .For every 2 bottles of wine produced there is a bottle of waste. Vegea takes the waste from winemaking, and turns the dried grape marc into an eco-composite alternative to leather … now used in Bentley interiors and Gucci shoes.

More disruptors

German startup circular.fashion develops a platform that enables fashion brands to design garments for circularity from the very beginning of their lifecycle. The platform enables a transparent flow of information between material suppliers, fashion brands, customers, and recyclers. It features a database containing hundreds of fabrics selected for their sustainable properties and validated for future recyclability, as well as circular design guidelines. The company also provides a unique circularity.ID for each piece, enabling full transparency into a garment’s journey.

 

One of the challenges that limit garment recycling is the need to disassemble large volumes of clothing very fast. Resortecs – REcycling, SORting, TEChnologieS – is an H&M Global change award-winning start-up that develops technology to empower smart, industrial-scale textile disassembly and recycling. Founded in 2017 by Belgium’s Cédric Vanhoeck and Vanessa Counaert, Resortecs drives circularity in the textile industry with innovative heat-dissolvable stitching threads and thermal disassembly systems that make recycling easy. All without sacrificing the creativity, design, and quality of clothing. Garments are difficult to recycle because they are difficult to disassemble. Resortecs’ globally patented solution consists of two steps: Smart Stitch™: garments designed for disassembly by simply changing the thread The heat-dissolvable threads melt at high temperatures (150-200°C), making the seams disappear automatically. Smart Disassembly™: patented thermal systems to dismantle garments 5x faster, with industrial ovens processing up to 10 tons of textiles per day. No risk of damaging the fabric thanks to low-oxygen chamber.

Technologies that allow recovery of materials from discarded textile enable resource reuse for the creation of new products. Australian startup BlockTexx recovers polyester and cellulose from discarded textiles and clothing of any color or condition. The startup’s proprietary technology separates polyester and cotton clothes, sheets, and towels back into raw materials. It turns them into high-quality polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and cellulose for reuse in new products. The startup’s recovered materials find applications in many industries, including textile, packaging, building products, pharmaceutical, and food.

Technologies that allow for continuous recoloring of textiles without the use of toxic additives promote the reuse of produced clothes. Swedish startup Vividye develops a reversible coloring technology. It enables the application of all sorts of colors and designs to textiles, which can later be removed to re-apply new ones. The process is resource-efficient and does not require toxic chemicals. The company uses filtered and reused wastewater to further reduce the environmental impact. Vividye’s technology introduces new creative opportunities for designers, making it possible to color and recolor textiles multiple times.

Rifò is an Italian startup that makes high-quality garments and accessories, using recycled and recyclable textile fibers. The startup transforms old clothes into yarn to create new cashmere sweaters and hats. It utilizes a unique mechanical and craftsmanship process to turn fabric leftovers and old clothes into new garments with identical qualities to the original products. This method allows to recycle textile waste, as well as to reduce the amount of water, dyes, and chemicals used to create new clothes.

Hong Kong-based startup The R Collective upcycles rescued textiles, reuse materials, and collaborates with fashion designers to create circular apparel. The startup utilizes a broad range of rescued quality waste materials from fibers and fabrics to fasteners. It diverts the best materials from landfills into the circular fashion system by upcycling them into clothes.

The global economy is only 7.2% circular, according to the new Circularity Gap Report 2023 just published by Deloitte. And it’s getting worse year on year, driven by rising material extraction and use.

With a circular economy, we could fulfil people’s needs with just 70% of the materials we currently use, and therefore within the safe limits of the planet, the report suggests. Indeed circular solutions that address four priority areas – nutrition, housing, mobility and manufacturing – would address the majority of environmental pressures.

On, the Swiss sportswear brand, is a great example of how we could do better.

“Cyclon” is On’s groundbreaking circularity program. On’s Cloudneo is a fully recyclable running shoe made from castor beans. Lightweight, agile and super responsive, it’s engineered to perform. And you’ll never own it, because it’s only available via subscription.

Today, most products are designed within a linear lifecycle. That means one straight line to the trash. “Make-Use-Dispose.” When apparel and footwear have a predetermined destiny to become waste, that results in harmful effects on our planet. But we think there’s a better way. It’s called circularity.

 

How do you engineer a shoe from castor beans? It might seem like magic, but really it’s just science. A two-time ISPO award recipient, the Cyclon running shoe will feature a 100% bio-based upper. Made from just a single cut of fabric, so there’s zero waste and zero dyeing. Just pure material and pure performance.

Once you’re part of the Cyclon subscription, On sends your first pair of recyclable running shoes to you. After six months, you might be feeling the need to replace your well-worn and loved shoes. Not a problem. Hop back online and let On know to send a new pair to you. If your shoes haven’t gone the distance yet, you can replace them later.

The Circularity Gap Report 2023 explores how each country has a different starting point and will progress at a different pace towards the shared global goal of reversing environmental overshoot, while fulfilling people’s needs. Bringing these circular solutions to life requires an understanding of local, national and trading contexts.

To reverse the overshoot and achieve wellbeing within safe limits, purpose-driven collaboration between the public and private sectors is essential—only then can we scale the transition to a circular economy.

A circular economy offers solutions on how to reduce, regenerate and redistribute vital materials use, for both the planet and all its living beings.

The following three principles can help bring a shared focus to business leaders and policy makers:

• Reduce: from efficiency to sufficiency, resilience and adaptiveness … A circular economy must push for a cultural shift to prioritise immaterial ways to fulfil needs, and invest in health, wellbeing and education and decent jobs, rather than material accumulation—as does the predominant economic model in many parts of the world.
• Regenerate: from extraction to regeneration … The regenerative capacity of the planet is a gift—so we must respect and support its capacity to regenerate, also for future generations. Many regenerative solutions already exist today that show that we can move from humanity being net-negative to net-positive on Earth’s life support system.
• Redistribute: from accumulation to distribution … There is currently enough wealth and materials in the world to provide a good quality of life to every single human being on this planet

In the early 1960s, if you wanted a quality watch, you bought a Swiss one. Accuracy, craftsmanship and reputation had sustained Swiss watchmaking supremacy for over three centuries. Then came Seiko and Timex, Japanese innovators who used quartz technology to offer new features at a fraction of the price. Switzerland’s share of the global market fell from 48% in 1965 to 15% in 1980.

The Swiss could have responded to the Japanese disruptors by also trying to compete on price, but they realised that disruption is not about playing the same game, it is about changing the game. Instead of going for cheap, they went for style and fashion. The Swatch watch was born with bright colours and ultra-modern design, a price cheap enough to accessorise every outfit or mood. They disrupted their disruptors.

Every market is disrupted

The term “disruption” became popular with Clay Christensen’s  “The Innovator’s Dilemma: When Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fall” which defined it as the process by which a simpler, more affordable product or service initially takes root at the bottom of a market and then relentlessly moves upmarket, eventually displacing established competitors. As Netflix did to Blockbuster, or Ford Model T to the horse and cart.

Disruption can take many forms and is not limited to technology and price. The Beatles disrupted popular music, Brexit disrupted Europe, and the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted most of life on Earth.

Typically, disruption takes the form of a small insurgent taking on a much larger incumbent. David versus Goliath. The incumbent grows too familiar with its success and starts to rely on past glories, and forgets to move forwards. Meanwhile consumers grow tired of what is familiar, particularly if it becomes boring and diminished. An insurgent is new and exciting, it offers change and something better. It claims to be on the side of the people, fighting against the status quo, seeking a better world.

We see disruptors in every market, typically smaller start-up businesses who are trying to do things different and better. Often, they rise to become billion-dollar businesses, or “unicorns” as we call them. Compared to the impact of innovations between established competitors, Coke and Pepsi for example, where the new ideas can make marginal differences of 1-2%, disruptors can have a 30-40% impact:

• Aerofarms in agriculture … vertical, urban, intensive farming
• Birchbox in beauty … monthly subscription boxes of samples
• Grab in delivery … home delivery of anything on demand
• Icon in manufacturing … can 3D print a house in 24 hours
• Klarna in online payments … simple, intelligent payments
• Impossible in plant foods … tastes better and good for world
• Peloton in fitness … the ultimate ride without leaving home
• SpaceX in space travel … cheap satellites and returns to Mars
• Uber in urban travel … shared, cheaper and trusted city travel
• Udacity in education … fast, online nanodegrees, linked to jobs
• Xiaomi in smart devices … low-priced electronics for emerging markets

Often these companies succeed by “decoupling” the traditional offerings of incumbents. They break up the conventional solutions into components and then choose to do only some parts, but much better, or a number of them, recombined in a better way. At the same time, they bring digital technologies to play, reimagining existing activities in simpler, faster, cheaper, more personal, more automated, or more convenient ways. CB Insights, founded by Anand Sanwal, is a great resource for exploring how industries from healthcare to real estate are being decoupled and distrupted, reimagined and reinvented.

How corporates can disrupt the disruptors

In his book “The Phoenix and the Unicorn” Belgian tech entrepreneur Peter Hinssen takes another perspective. As we had dinner in Seattle, he shared his idea: “Unicorn start-ups are brilliant. However, to be honest, very few of us will become founders or work for a billion-dollar start-up” he said. “Most of us struggle along in large companies trying to stay relevant to the ever-changing customer.”

“The phoenix is just as magical as the unicorn, but perhaps a little more relevant. It represents all those companies that, just like this mythical bird, are able to rethink themselves in cycles: time and time again they rise from the ashes of the old and come out stronger than ever before. They are the Walmarts, the Volvos, the Disneys, the Apples, the Microsofts, and AT&Ts of this world.”

Large, established corporates have many advantages – familiar brands and reputations, huge scale and customer bases, significant resources and talent, existing infrastructure and licenses to operate, a diversity of assets and partners, financial power and investors, and experienced leaders.

If only they could unlock them with the same foresight and creativity, energy and agility, of start-ups then they would be formidable incumbents. They have grown slow and lazy over their years of success, they have evolved with conservative cultures that seek to avoid change and risk, wedded to their physically based, full-service solutions, and struggle to innovate.

Start-ups are the “speedboats” that can zoom around evolving markets, seize new opportunities, partner easily with others, and can adapt and evolve quickly. Corporates are the “supertankers” with power and scale but find it hard to change direction.

Change the game to your advantage

The “game” is your market, the framework in which you choose how to compete.

In my previous book “Gamechangers: How brands and business can change the world” I explored many different strategies by which companies can change how they define that framework, the frame of your market, and the ways in which they compete.

We have also explored how the best organisations see the future differently, and this too is a distinctive advantage: Being able to

• make better sense of the changing world, and prepare for the markets of tomorrow, rather than just competing in those of today.
• build of portfolio of innovations, exploiting today and exploring tomorrow, that will sustain growth over time.
• win by defining success in more inspired ways.

In the most simplest terms, you can change the game by changing any, or any combination, of four strategic dimensions:

• Change the why … your purpose, your vision, your brand
• Change the who … your audience, your geography, your occasion
• Change the how … your business model, organisation, process, partners
• Change the what … your experience, products and service, costs and price

Great examples today of companies who have disrupted their disruptors include Disney, Bob Iger led the fight back against the challenge of Netflix to create new types of branded content built on its Pixar acquisition and character franchises, and new business models to engage with customers, such as the Disney+ platform. Similarly, Microsoft has fought back under Satya Nadella to reinvent itself, as has AT&T and Cemex.

“Jujutsu” is a type of Japanese martial arts which uses the strength of an opponent against them, rather than you own. When faced with a disruptor, you would seek to learn from the new business model used against you, and then create a superior version of it yourself.  More generally, jujutsu can inspire a business to scan a changing market for all possible new business models, then decoding them to explore to challenge and build on them.

Jack Welch famously used the phrase “DYB” meaning disrupt your business as he encouraged his teams in GE to reimagine their own business in the same way that a young entrepreneur might seek to decouple and disrupt what GE did. Corporate venturing, working with entrepreneurs to develop new business and approaches under your own roof, is a more sophisticated way to embed this disruptive mindset within a large corporate.

One great example of changing the game comes from New Zealand, where Turners and Growers, a leading producer of fruit and vegetables started to cultivate the Chinese gooseberry in the 1950s.

Until that time, the fruit had only been grown in central and eastern China. Turners had the inspired idea to reimagine the fruit in a new way, calling it the “kiwifruit” and going on to position it as a superfood, high in vitamin C and antioxidants. It became popular locally, and then with a new brand name, Zespri, spread rapidly across the world.

© Peter Fisk 2023.

Excerpt from “Business Recoded” by Peter Fisk

As we enter a low-growth, low-investment and low-cooperation era, the actions that we take today will dictate our future risk landscape. Lack of preparedness for longer-term risks will destabilize the global risks landscape further, bringing ever tougher trade-offs for policy-makers and business leaders scrambling to address simultaneous crises.

Each risk requires concerted, specific and customized efforts but several cross-cutting principles can support preparedness across themes:

1. Strengthening risk identification and foresight

Enhanced risk identification and foresight can be a key enabler for strategic decision-making, agenda-setting and resilience measures, helping to prioritize areas that would benefit from data collection and monitoring, risk controls and resources, and redundancie

2. Recalibrating the present value of “future” risks

For better planning and preparedness, institutions must de-anchor risk prioritization from shorter-term incentives. Business leaders and policy-makers need to embrace complexity and adopt a dual vision that more effectively balances current crisis management with a longer-term lens

3. Investing in multi-domain risk preparedness

As global risks become more intertwined, preparedness also needs to become more of a hared responsibility between sectors, with local and national governments, business and civil society each playing to their strengths, rather than traditional models of governments addressing market failures when they occur

4. Strengthening preparedness and response cooperation

In a complex risks outlook, there must be a better balance between national preparedness and global cooperation. We need to act together, to shape a pathway out of cascading crises and build collective preparedness to the next global shock, whatever form it might take. Leaders must embrace complexity and act on a balanced vision to create a stronger, prosperous shared future

5. Seizing now as the moment to act

Some of the risks described in this year’s report are close to a tipping point. This is the moment to act collectively, decisively and with a long-term lens to shape a pathway to a more positive, inclusive and stable world.

If 2022 was the year of the perma-crisis, then 2023 will be the year of consequences.

The world, and business specifically, needs to address the impacts of inflation as it becomes recession, the continued war in Ukraine, high food and fuel prices, the transition to renewable energy, and China’s uncertain post-pandemic path. These issues, and many more, are big in themselves, but their coupling makes them even more complex to address.

“An unrestrained, impactful, and powerful burst of energy is being injected into the year ahead, arming people with hope, joy, and happiness amid continuing uncertain times” says Wunderman Thompson.

Adaptogenic beauty and absurdist stays … ageless play and artisan waves … supercharging hair and skin cycling … survivalist dining and the superself … just some of the trends in their Future 100.

It’s the age of instinct, says Canvas8 … “In the tumult of 2023, we’ll see people act on their instincts to preserve their sanity, protect themselves, and safeguard what they care about”.

So as people turn to friends, booze, and energetic rebellion, they’ll also look sceptically at who to trust, and the need to do better “While 73% of people believe companies must act for the good of the planet and society, 71% don’t believe the promises they make”.

“Sensemaking” has become a huge challenge, as the megatrends swirl around us – culturally, politically, economically – our society and markets become more granular and less predictable.

Finding the useful, important, signals – amidst so much noise – is not easy. “In a world of garbage trends and cherry-picked futurisms, which insights will unlock your next big idea?”

• Megatrends 2030, making sense of a world shaken up by Covid and more
• Reasons to be cheerful in 2023, and our progress over last 20 years
• The new business agenda, a crazy time, but also a time for new thinking

New year is also a great time for a little personal refection, and ambition setting – what did you achieve in 2022, and what do you seek in 2023? Try these:

• 2022 Personal Annual Report, “7 simple questions to reflect on the last year, and to make the next year unstoppable.”
• 2023 Year Compass, “close 2022, start 2023, because new year’s resolutions don’t work, but Year Compass does.”

Trends Kaleidoscope 2023

So, in the spirit of “new year, new ideas” here is my (not-cherry) pick from over 100 future-gazing reports for 2023. Maybe, from this smorgasbord of patterns, predications and possibilities, a few bright ideas might spark out …

“New World Disorder” is the theme of the excellent new Global Trends 2023 report from Ipsos … how to navigate polycrisis, disruption and uncertainty, change and opportunity, in the “twitchy twenties”.

Indeed “polycrisis” has become a word of the year. “A polycrisis is not just a situation where you face multiple crises. It is a situation … where the whole is even more dangerous than the sum of the parts.” says Adam Tooze, author & professor at Columbia University in New York City, New York. 

6 global macro forces shaping every market:

12 global trends shaping your future opportunities:

The Economist sees five stories to watch out for in the year ahead – From India becoming the world’s most populous country, to an illegal drug that might be approved as a medicine. 

1o trends will emerge from this maelstrom of madness:

• Ukraine: Energy prices, inflation, interest rates, economic growth, food shortages will all depend on how the conflict plays out in the coming months. Supply chains remain blocked, as the west’s support strengthens.
• Recession: Major economies will go into recession as central banks raise interest rates to stifle inflation, an after-effect of the pandemic since inflamed by high energy prices. Europe will be worst affected.
• Climate: As countries rush to secure their energy supplies, they are turning back to dirty fossil fuels. The Ukrainian war will accelerate the switch to renewables, and also the development of climate capture technologies, hydrogen and fusion.
• China: Some time in April India will replace China as the largest population, with 1.43 billion people. Xi is under increasing pressure economically and politically, and its businesses are being stifled. Has China peaked?
• America: Although Republicans did worse than expected in the midterm elections, social and cultural divides on abortion, guns and other big issues continue to widen. Will Trump’s ego force its way into the 2024 election, or will others rise up?
• Flashpoints: The intense focus on the war in Ukraine heightens the risk of conflict elsewhere. Chinese fighter jets are circling Taiwan. India-China tensions could flare in the Himalayas. And might Turkey try to nab a Greek island in the Aegean?
• Alliances: NATO, revitalised by the war in Ukraine, will welcome two new members. Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham accords, an emerging bloc? Other groupings of growing importance include the Quad and AUKUS
• Tourism: As travellers engage in post-lockdown “revenge” tourism, traveller spending will almost regain its 2019 level of $1.4 trillion, but only because inflation has pushed up prices. Business travel will remain weak as firms cut costs.
• Metaverse. Reality check after all that Zuckerberg hype. Will the idea of working and playing in virtual worlds catch on beyond games? Apple launches its first headset and Meta decides whether to change its strategy as its share price languishes.
• Jargon:  NIMBYs are out, VIMBYs are in, cryptocurrencies are uncool and post-quantum cryptography is hot, and passwords will give way to passkeys, and then there are frozen conflicts, and synfuels. Work them out.

The Global Risks Report 2023 by WEF and McLellan takes this further, identifying short and long-term risks – and importantly, their connectedness, which matters if we are to work out how to address them in effective ways.

Top of the short-term risks, globally, is the “cost of living” crisis, as a crunch of economic stagnation, disrupted supply chains, energy prices and much more, all contribute to pressure on individuals. However climate change is still, by far, the most significant longer-term risk, which demands action now or never.

Accenture Life Trends (previously Fjord)  identified five emerging trends that will alter the power dynamic between brands and customers this year. Emerging technologies such as AI, web3, and tokenization are redefining creativity, brand engagement, and autonomy.

They identify 5 consumer trends:

• I will survive … The world is lurching from one global catastrophe to the next. But, as they have for millennia, people are adapting to instability by switching between four responses: fight, flight, focus and freeze.
• I’m a believer … In an unstable world, people seek out places where they feel they belong. As a result, next-gen brands will be built as communities first, reshaping loyalty and brand participation.
• As it was … Everyone’s felt the loss of intangible office benefits, like chance encounters and consistent, close guidance of junior talent. Now, the consequences of the loss are becoming clear. Without in-person engagement companies stand to lose.
• Ok, Creativity … Whereas AI largely has been used by enterprises and brands as a service to people or on people, neural networks have been made widely available to create language, images and music—putting AI squarely in people’s hands as a tool for creativity.
• Signed, sealed, delivered … The use (and misuse) of personal data is long overdue for a transformation. Transparency and trust in online brand experiences are quickly diminishing in tandem.

And there are many, many more trend reports –  each with their own spin on the zeitgeist, and what will emerge next. Each seeking to creatively articulate normal people in ever psychedelic terms, usually with plenty of bias too:

• DFF 10 Megatrends Shaping our Future 2023
• Trend Check 2023 by Trendwatching
• Marian Salzman Rethinking Everything 
• Ipsos 2023 Gamechanger Predictions
• GWI “Connecting the dots” consumer trends 
• Foresight Factory Consumer Trends 2023
• The New Consumer Trends Report 2023
• Instagram Trend Report 2023
• TikTok Trend Report 2023
• WEF Chief Economists Outlook 2023
• BlackRock’s Global Investment Outlook 2023
• And 100 more curated by SpaceCadet

For marketers, also check out the free Most Contagious Report 2022

Mintel’s 2023 Consumer Trends report has one of the largest global insights bases. Over the next one-to-five years, they say, expect consumer behaviour to shift and evolve in response to the following five global consumer trends:

• Me Mentality … Consumers will be eager to re-focus on themselves and brands can help them take centre stage.
• Power to the People … Brands have to make room for a new ‘c’ in their c-suite as, consumers are investing, co-creating and voting for change alongside brands.
• Hyper Fatigue … Consumers will try to cut through the noise and connect with what matters to them.
• International Localism … Buying local will be a way consumers can protect themselves financially, environmentally and psychologically, and feel that they are giving back.
• Intentional Spending … Factors like flexibility, durability and sustainability will play increasingly important roles in consumers’ value equation.

Meanwhile Wunderman Thompson’s Future 100 An unrestrained, impactful, and powerful burst of energy is being injected into the year ahead, arming people with hope, joy, and happiness amid continuing uncertain times, according to ‘The Future 100: 2023’ from Wunderman Thompson.

Despite on-going economic and environmental crisis, people are choosing joy … the ‘Joy-Conomy’, the rise of trends such as ‘Elevated Expressionism’, ‘Feel-Good Feeds’, and ‘Ageless Play’, demonstrates the opportunities for brands who engage with consumers’ desire for inspiration and optimism, as people become are determined to show resilience, innovation, and joy in the face of continued hardship – as last year’s unbounded optimism shifts to an exuberant need for uplift and play.

In addition to the rise of the ‘Joy-conomy’, other trends include:

• Indigenous Innovation: Indigenous Techniques are forming regenerative approaches to managing the environment
• Techcessibility: Companies are redesigning their digital environments for greater accessibility
• Temperate Travel: Rising temperatures will prompt travelers to seek out cooler destinations
• Amplifying Diverse Creators: Growing calls for authentic representation in advertising are driving a wave of brand collaborations with marginalized creative talents
• Cell-cultured Dishes: As cell-cultured food moves from lab to grocery store, luxury dining may be the first beneficiary
• Resurrected Ingredients: Brands are bringing back extinct and forgotten sensory ingredients
• Crisis Retail: As the financial crisis bites, brands are stepping up to help their most vulnerable consumers
• Residence at Sea: The next-gen digital nomad is taking to the sea—in style
• Menopause Retreats: From HRT education to nutritional advice, retreats designed specifically for the menopause journey are on the rise
• Generation Flex: Employee expectations are rising. Despite economic woes, could the balance of power be tipping in their favor?

They also identify some new vocabulary for the year ahead:

• Joyconomy: a movement of brand and consumer enthusiasm for elevated expressionism, positivity, and forward-thinking advancements across industries.
• Situationships: mutually temporary relationships that fill an emotional need or compliment a lifestyle change that allows for ever-shifting boundaries from both parties.
• The superself: an all-encompassing wellness lifestyle that sees people centering their lives on the betterment of their mental and physical health.
• Rewirement: retirement, reestablished for workers who want to pursue personal passions and rediscover themselves.
• Hospital-ity: healthcare and hospitality practices combined to cater to the super-health-conscious traveler.
• Digital nesting: established liminal lifestyle and home spaces that incorporate digital and physical habits and commodities.
• Climate optimism: a meaningful, positive response to anxiety over climate change.
• Techcessibility: accessible designs in tech that include necessary adjustments and considerations for marginalized groups.
• Unretirement: to return to work post-retirement for economic stability and meaningful social interaction.
• Cryptoclubs: member-based digital communities that unlock exclusive opportunities for the crypto-elite.

Scott Galloway  is a digital-world professor who knows what he loves, and hates.

Take this “I hate Meta and … its equity will outperform the market. The Zuck’s growth plan (the metaverse) is something his most formidable enemy could not have dreamt. We said this before it was cool, and the market concurred this year and took the stock down 75%. In one year, Meta lost its gains from the previous five. Sure, the metaverse is dumb/stupid/ridiculous, but Meta is still a $120 billion business and a cash volcano with (despite Zuck roofieing his colleagues with a Big Gulp Grande Venti ayahuasca trip to the metaverse) exceptional operating margins. Facebook and IG are no longer the hot new thing, but the population of the Southern Hemisphere and India still use them.”

So how else does he see the year ahead?

• Hyper AI ... Like Web3 last year, artificial intelligence is on track to be the most hyped technology of 2023. Unlike Web3, however, AI will (mostly) live up to the hype. We’ve already witnessed the immense capabilities of image- and text-generating AI programs, including Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, and ChatGPT.
• Bytedance … Apple and TikTok have been shaking up the ad world. Apple is already a multi-trillion-dollar firm, and TikTok will cut the ribbon on its four-comma valuation this year. At its current $300 billion valuation, TikTok’s parent, ByteDance, is worth more than Disney, Snap, Pinterest, Twitter, IPG, WPP, and the Omnicom Group combined. It took just five years to reach a billion users — three years less than Instagram and four years less than Facebook — and those users spend 100 minutes/day on the platform. When young people are asked to choose between TikTok and all of TV/streaming, they choose TikTok.
• Subscale … Downturn markets morph large firms into firms that are not large enough. We could see the consolidation of many subscale companies, including Lyft, AMC, Peloton, Carvana, and Robinhood. In terms of market cap, Uber is now 15 times more valuable than Lyft, as are Ford and GM, who are hungry for autonomous driving experience and IP.
• Airbnb … Galloway believes the best-performing large tech stocks of 2023 will be Airbnb (alongside Meta). Seventy percent of the company’s site traffic comes from direct, organic visits — that’s compared to 40% for Marriott and Expedia. This brand strength results in a net margin twice those of its hospitality peers. Airbnb also generates half a million in revenue per employee, more than most tech companies — and ten times greater than hotel chains. The company can reinvest at a rate that will further increase the delta between the business and its peers.
• Disneyverse … Could Disney acquires Roblox? Roblox is a metaverse that works. The gaming platform has roughly 60 million daily active users, half of them 13 years old or younger. At the beginning of the year the stock was $120; it’s now below $40. At Disney, Bob 1 is back, and he may be the best buyer in history. During his first stint he acquired Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Bamtech, and 21st Century Fox. (We’ll ignore the last one.) Acquiring Roblox would be expensive, but Disney has the capital, and strategically it makes sense.
• Tesla … He concludes “Scott Fitzgerald defined intelligence as the ability to hold two opposite ideas in the mind at the same time. Tesla will post record revenue and deliveries next year, and the stock will still get cut in half. I’ve been a Tesla bear for a long time, which means I’ve been (very) wrong for a long time. The lesson was to “never bet against a company with a great product.” And that’s still true. The problem for Tesla is that greatness is relative, and the industry is catching up.”

And some positive foresight to end on. I’ve always been a fan of Springwise, created by Rainer Evers and his team in Amsterdam.

They kick off by saying the last twelve months have been an exciting time for innovation, with several important milestones passed. Here are five trends we believe will impact the world of innovation in the year ahead.

Protein possibilities … In July this year, Google-backed DeepMind announced that its AlphaFold programme had uncovered the structure of 200 million proteins – almost all of those known to science. This breakthrough is likely to speed up the development of protein-based innovations in the coming years, with implications for everything from food security to plastic recycling. But when most of us hear the word ‘protein’, we think of food. And here too we expect to see innovation in 2023.

Two protein innovations set to come of age in 2023:

• A plant that will convert methane into protein for animal feed
• Dairy proteins produced from plant cells

Satellites for nature  … Satellites may seem distant, but they impact our daily lives in many ways – from providing internet to helping us navigate through Google Maps. And scientists have long been using them for all kinds of research. But as the importance of nature-based solutions such as reforestation grows, and the impacts of climate change become more apparent, we are increasingly seeing satellites used for monitoring vital ecosystems and tracking climate impacts.

Two satellite innovations set to come of age in 2023:

• Using satellites, AI, and LiDAR to map every tree
• A micro-satellite constellation set to monitor water availability

A real estate reckoning … With buildings responsible for 39 per cent of global energy-related carbon emissions, innovators are increasingly reckoning with the need to decarbonise real estate – both through cleaner construction and retrofitting. And this is likely to accelerate next year.

Two real estate innovations set to come of age in 2023:

• A 3D-printed house made of bio-based materials
• An AI platform for de-carbonising real-estate portfolios

Green is the new black … Fashion has long been criticised for its poor sustainability credentials. But as pressure on the industry grows, innovators are increasingly working to give fashion a makeover. This year, we have seen developments such as compostable materials and platforms that create a market for unused fabric. And next year we expect to see even more innovation.

Two fashion innovations set to come of age in 2023:

• A website plugin helping shoppers find the correct size for any brand
• A fashion brand converting to fully circular production

Cultural creativity … Innovation is not limited to the world of business. The impact of digital technologies on art and culture has been nothing short of transformative. And in 2023 we expect to see some exciting creative developments. 

Two arts and culture innovations set to come of age in 2023:

• A catamaran converted into a digital art museum
• ️ A metaverse space for museums.

Seize the recession to your advantage

Economic downturns are the moments when markets are shaken-up, when the poor performers are shaken-up, and when the innovators step up.

56% of Fortune 500 companies were founded during an economic downturn. 92% of patents are filed during a downturn. Most upturns are forged during the preceding downturn.

When others are losing their heads, will you seize the future?

• Beyond the downturn: recession strategies by Bain
• How to survive a recession, and thrive afterwards by HBR
• Preparing for and managing through a downturn by McKinsey
• How to market in a downturn by HBR
• The next consumer recession, preparing now by Deloitte
• Building resilience in a time of uncertainty by BCG

More from Peter Fisk

• Next Agenda of best ideas and priorities for business
• Megatrends 2030 in a world accelerated by pandemic
• 49 Codes to help you develop a better business future
• 100 companies innovators shaking up the world
• 100 leaders with the courage to shape a better future
• Education that is innovative, issue-driven, action-driving
• Consulting that is collaborative, strategic and innovative
• Speaking that is inspiring, topical, engaging and actionable

“Problems are inevitable. Misery is a choice” said Ann Landers, the American 1940s journalist.

From the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan to the rise of Omicron, from stagflation to strained global supply chains, the mainstream media is all too eager to sell you an apocalypse-themed view of our future.

We have huge challenges.

The IPCC’s “code red” for our last chance to fight climate change, before 1.5 degrees is no longer a viable target at which to retain carbon emissions, is real, and deadly. Overshooting by half a degree could destroy twice as many animals on earth, see huge increases in sea level rises, global warming and much more.

We need to act, and act fast.

We need to focus out science and tech megabrains on these moonshot challenges, in order to rethink how to solve these problems while also sustaining a growing population, a fair and positive life for everyone, where everyone can equally pursue their dreams and ambitions .

But we’ve proven a fairly resilient species over time.

• The Earth is 4.5 billion years old, and has survived at least 5 major ice ages and 5 extinction events
• The ozone later has reversed, particularly through the elimination of most CFCs,, and reverse impacts
• Electric cars are getting better, cheaper and faster. With a little nudge most people will drive one in 10 years
• Vertical farming is being embraced rapidly, with efficient use of resources, closed nutrient loops.
• Energy is rapidly transitioning to wind and solar, with more efficient production, and rapid adaption.
• Young generations, particularly GenZ and Alpha, care even more about our world, and love nature.
• 100 companies are said to responsible for 70% of carbon. Investors are now driving rapid transformation.
• We could be optimistic, we could be pessimistic. Why wouldn’t you be an optimist?

Global achievements in 2022

2022 was not an easy year – the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high inflation, supply chain shortages, and the threat of food insecurity for many nations – but it was also a year of milestones toward a better future, scientific breakthroughs, and stories of hope. TIME magazine brought together 10 stories of human progress from the last 12 months:

1. Civilization reached peak agricultural land

For nearly all of human history, producing more food required more land. But starting in the early 1900s, and continuing through the next 100 years, four powerful forces—synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, synthetic pesticides, hydrocarbon-powered mechanization, and improved genetic selection—allowed humanity to produce more food from less land. Between 1900 and 2000, agricultural land—that is, the sum of cropland and pastoral land used for grazing livestock— increased dramatically and consistently year after year.

But the latest data released in 2022 suggest that while land use for crops is still increasing, total agricultural land use appears to have peaked in the year 2000, and is now in decline. Peak agricultural land use has been driven in large part by changing the way we feed the animals we eat, shifting from grazing livestock to feeding them crops we’ve grown. The change has helped reduce the amount of land that must be converted from wilderness to pasture, which has, in turn, reduced the pressure on wildlife habitat. Progress forward is, however, not progress completed, and to continue to reduce pasture land allocation and turn the tide toward peak cropland, we must continue to improve crop yields.

2. A malaria vaccine for the first time

Between the years 2000 and 2020, global malaria deaths declined by roughly 30%; however, in 2021, there were still an estimated 247 million cases and 619,000 related deaths. The hard-won progress thus far has been driven in large part by the expanding use of insecticide-treated bed nets and antimalarial drugs. The most powerful tool in the war against malaria, a safe and effective malaria vaccine, has remained out of reach.

But this year, for the first time, the World Health Organization recommended the use of a malaria vaccine: the RTS,S/AS01 Mosquirix shot, which the WHO said should be deployed to protect children living in regions with moderate to high transmission. By April 2022, more than 1 million children in Africa had received the world’s first malaria vaccine. The WHO estimates that the shot could save the lives of roughly 40,000 to 80,000 such children annually.

In addition, another malaria vaccine, the R21/Matrix-M developed by Adrian Hill and the University of Oxford, also continued to show promise. According to a study published in The Lancet in early December, the vaccine provided 80% protection against the disease in human trials. If approved, the plan is for the R21 malaria vaccine to go into production with the Serum Institute of India, with a target of 200 million doses annually, and may be sold at less than half the price of the RTS,S malaria vaccine.

3. James Webb telescope sees the universe 

Through the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, the James Webb Space Telescope had a successful launch, essentially flawless deployment and calibration, and began returning its first images. The next-generation telescope took nearly 26 years and $10 billion to make happen. But it appears the gamble is going to pay off, as Webb brings into focus the way galaxies looked just a few hundred million years after the formation of the universe.

The first images from Webb, released in July of 2022, captured the imagination of the world, instilling a sense of both wonder at the magnitude and beauty of space, and also our small and seemingly insignificant place within the greater universe.

The focus in 2023 will turn to the telescope’s primary missions: studying the early galaxies of the universe, observing star formation, and observing the chemical properties of planetary systems, inclusive of the solar system in which we reside. This year there were hundreds of ways that Webb could have gone wrong, and only one way for the mission to go right. Against all odds, Webb performed flawlessly.

4. Beavers and bison rebounded in Europe

Across Europe, many wild animals are making a comeback, returning to the region’s oceans, forests, and rivers. A reduction in habitat loss and conservation, along with reintroduction programs, offer hope for a future where many native species to the region can once again flourish.

For much of the 20th century, hunting and habitat loss reduced large animal populations throughout the European continent. But over the last 50 years, many species have made an incredible comeback, with stable and self-perpetuating populations of large animals, from whales to bison, rebounding.

At least 19 species had an average relative change in abundance greater than 100%, while at the top end of improvements, European bison and Eurasian beaver populations grew by an astonishing 16,626% and 16,705%, respectively.

5. The first large-scale genetically engineered “golden” rice crop in the Philippines

One of the best stories of progress this year unfolded quietly in 17 rice fields in the Philippines this October. For the first time in world history, farmers in the Philippines harvested golden rice on a large scale—some 74 tons that had been cultivated over the previous year. That’s relatively insignificant when compared to the annual production of conventional rice for the country, a little over 13 million tons in 2022; it is, however, a milestone for genetically engineered rice. While golden rice has been around for decades, this is the first time it has been made legally available.

Golden rice is a powerful tool in the fight against vitamin A deficiency, a condition that claims the eyesight and lives of hundreds of thousands of children annually. In 2009 the WHO estimated that “250,000–500,000 children who are vitamin A-deficient become blind every year, and half of them die within 12 months of losing their sight.”

Often, this condition affects children in low- and middle-income regions with a high dependency on standard rice, which lacks vitamin A. Golden rice is a version of the staple grain genetically engineered to produce vitamin A, and in theory, could reduce or eliminate vitamin A deficiencies without requiring a major change in dietary habits.

6. Guinea worm disease reached near-eradication levels

In 1989, there were 892,055 cases of Guinea worm disease, a dreadful and debilitating waterborne parasitic infection historically endemic to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. In 2022 there were just 15 cases globally—a decline of 99.998%.

This astonishing decline in infection rates was driven not by a new vaccine or breakthrough technology, but through community education programs, effective isolation of infected persons from water sources, expanding access to improved and treated water sources, and basic water filtration. Thanks to these largely low-tech mitigations there is now hope that it may be possible, perhaps within the next few years, to declare the disease truly eradicated,

7. India developed a cervical cancer vaccine

The Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, announced the development of India’s first domestically developed and manufactured cervical cancer vaccine—but it’s the price that is the true breakthrough. The newly-developed vaccine will provide broad protection against the human papilloma virus (HPV), types 16 and 18, which are responsible for at least 70% of cervical cancers, as well as types 6 and 11.

While there are already two highly effective HPV vaccines available in India—Gardasil, from Merck, and Cervarix, from GlaxoSmithKline—they are both prohibitively expensive for many low-income families in India, with each dose costing Rs 2,800 (about $34) and Rs 3,299 (about $40), respectively. The price point for the new domestically-manufactured HPV vaccine is expected to be between 200 rupees and 400 rupees ($2.42-$4.85), ultimately helping more girls across India access the potentially life-saving shot. The Serum Institute is targeting to produce approximately 200 million doses over the coming two years.

8. Lab-grown meat got the green light from US authorities

Lab-grown meat has been on the horizon for over a decade, with the world’s first lab-grown burger eaten in 2013. In 2022, the technology had a milestone breakthrough, when California-based Upside Foods’ meat cultivated directly from chicken cells was given a green light from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The FDA basically says Upside’s cultivated chicken is safe for human consumption; the next step is to get approval from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. After that, it would be the first lab-grown meat to be sold in the U.S.

The technology, while still in its infancy, could help transform how we grow and consume meat, providing a sustainable alternative to the modern factory farm. If developers can effectively scale and market lab-grown meat effectively, it could help to offset the high inefficiency losses in using living animals to turn energy into delicious protein, reducing resource consumption and credulity.

9. The Covid-19 vaccine saved millions of lives

In light of the hardships experienced by billions of people globally, you would be forgiven for overlooking the silver lining that was the rapid research, development, manufacturing, and deployment of the four primary COVID-19 vaccines. A study published in June in The Lancet concluded that SARS-COV2 vaccination had already prevented between 14-20 million COVID-19 related deaths across 185 countries globally.

The Commonwealth Fund, a private foundation, estimates that the administration of the roughly 655 million doses covering 80% of the U.S. population has prevented more than 18 million hospitalizations and 3 million deaths. The vaccine deployment saved an estimated $1 trillion in medical costs, to say nothing of the social and emotional devastation it helped avoid.

10. CRISPR for cancer had a major breakthrough

This year has been replete with news of advancement in medical and agricultural applications for the genetic engineering tool CRISPR.

Among the most powerful stories about CRISPR was its breakthrough effect in the treatment of a 13-year-old girl suffering from aggressive leukemia that was unresponsive to conventional treatment. The teenager had her immune cells genetically altered via CRISPR to seek out and destroy cancer; she now has no detectable cancer within her body.While it may be too early to hail the new treatment as a readily deployable cure, it’s unquestionably a major breakthrough, possibly a watershed moment in the history of how humanity treats cancer.

Doctors and researchers are now working toward engaging another 10 adolescent patients for further trials of the treatment.The breakthrough was part of the larger story of progress in the use of CRISPR for the treatment of cancer, with research advancing on a number of fronts, including most prominently a promising personalized T cell modification which would allow for the body’s own immune system to fight solid cancers, and with the FDA lifting its ban on CRISPR base editing for cancer treatment.

Think about these facts, brought together by FreeThink

• Since 1998, average global life expectancy grew by nearly seven years through 2019 (the last year of data available), while global GDP per capitarose by over 50%, even counting the 2020 recession. This means that a third of the increase in standard of living that human beings have ever attained – measured as income per person – was achieved in the last 24 years.
• Extreme poverty decreased faster than ever, from 30% in 1998 to below 10%. On average — for two and a half decades — over 120,000 people have escaped extreme poverty not annually, or even monthly, but daily. While 2020 saw a rise in the number of people living in extreme poverty, the trend began to decline again in 2021, according to the World Bank.
• Since 1998, global child mortality — the share of children who die before the age of five — was reduced by over half, from over 8% each year to below 4%. There are more children living today than ever, and yet five million fewer children die each year. And, according to UNICEF, child mortality continued to decline through 2020.
• The proportion of the population with access to meaningful electricity jumped from 72.6% in 1998 to over 90% by 2019, while outdoor and indoor air pollution-related deaths fell by more than a million annually through 2017.

When you zoom out, the overall trend of human progress is unmistakably positive.

To quote Max Roser of Our World in Data, “The world is much better. The world is awful. The world can be much better. All three statements are true.” It’s an apt quote for the year as it draws to a close.

McKinsey’s superb Pixels of Progress report is another source of optimism, insights and inspiration. It takes a zoomed-in view of the world by considering more detail, rather than averages. Again, the outputs are about decades of progress:

More reasons

Some great anecdotes about the ways in which the world has made great progress over recent decades from The Mackinac Center for Public Policy, who put together a list of 50 ways markets and technology have helped reduce our impact, feed more of the planet’s population, and actively reverse past harms humans have caused to our environment.

1. NUTRITION

Many people in developing nations rely on rice as their primary food source. But a typical rice grain does not provide them with beta carotene, a healthful red-orange pigment found in many fruits and vegetables like carrots, and a material that our bodies naturally convert to Vitamin A. Some people who lack sufficient Vitamin A, especially small children and pregnant women, struggle with depressed immune response and blindness as a result. But through a gene-modifying technology, food scientists have developed crops like Golden Rice and Golden Promise barley. In rice, this technology effectively “turns on” two genes that naturally occur, allowing the rice grain to produce enough beta carotene to supply people with the Vitamin A they need. The presence of beta carotene also turns the rice grain a gold color – thus the name. The result: Millions of lives across the planet have been saved or improved. Sadly, however, this technology has encountered fierce opposition from anti-GMO activists and groups like Greenpeace.

2. DISEASE PREVENTION

Mosquitos that have been “bred [in a lab] to carry Wolbachia,” a bacteria that is common in insects but harmless to humans, are helping to reduce the spread of dengue fever in tropical nations. Researchers have not pinpointed the cause, but they do know the bacteria keep the disease from being transmitted when these insects bite. So the mosquitos may still be annoying, but their bite is not necessarily life-threatening anymore. As a side benefit, researchers report that the bacteria may also help reduce the number of mosquito eggs that hatch. One study of an Indonesian community reported a 76% decrease in the spread of dengue there since the release of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes in 2016.

3. FIGHTING WILDFIRE

New computing and mapping technologies are helping firefighters in their battle to reduce the costs and impacts of wildfires. Where it used to take a day or more to prepare maps, we can now fly over a fire and have a detailed map in a few minutes. Supercomputers are also now able to combine meteorological, topographic and other data to predict the likelihood of a wildfire.

4. WILDFIRE 2.0

Building on the same theme, the amount of land affected by wildfire has gone down 25% since 2003. Improved mapping and satellite technology, along with far greater societal wealth, has given forest managers the ability to spot, target and extinguish fires before they can burn out of control. This is especially helpful in remote and thinly populated northern forests.

5. CHEAP, RELIABLE COMFORT

Since 1952, free-market innovations and improved efficiencies have decreased the price of air-conditioning by 97% for the average family. Many other household appliances that also help to reduce costs, reduce risks, and improve human well-being and comfort have experienced similar price declines over the same periods. According to the website HumanProgress.org, Walmart sells a 6,000 BTU air-conditioning unit (with a remote control) for $178. Today an average blue-collar worker earns about $32 an hour. That person, then, would have to work 5.56 hours to afford this appliance. In 1952, a 5,500 BTU unit cost about $350 and the average blue-collar worker, earning $1.72 an hour, would have had to work 203 hours to pay for a less efficient A/C. Workers today can enjoy a far better quality of life as they work fewer hours to afford what would have been luxury items a few decades ago. And the appliances they can purchase use far less energy today to do the same job. For example, the SEER rating (or seasonal energy efficiency ratio) of an air conditioner measures the amount of electricity that it uses to produce a given amount of cooling, expressed as a ratio. The higher the rating, the more efficient the system. The Environmental and Energy Study Institute reports that minimum SEER ratings for home A/C units were between 8 and 10 in the late 1980s. In 2015, the average system had a minimum SEER rating of 14, and some more expensive systems can be as high as 23.

6. ABUNDANT FOOD

Green groups often quote academics like Thomas Malthus and Paul Ehrlich to warn that human populations will soon outstrip the Earth’s ability to produce food, leaving billions to starve. In the real world, however, we’re producing more food and feeding more people than ever before. Human populations increased from 5.588 billion in 1993 to 8 billion in 2022. However, worldwide global hunger, depicted by the Global Hunger Index(which tracks hunger on a global scale and ranks it from zero — no hunger — to 100 — extreme hunger) dropped from a “serious” value of 31.5 in 1994 to a “moderate” value of 17.2 in 2016. Sadly, the mix of a global pandemic, conflicts like Russian aggression in Ukraine, and restrictions on the development of reliable and affordable energy sources like natural gas, have forced progress on the GHI to a standstill. The 2022 edition of the Global Hunger Index report indicates a worldwide score of 19.1. The best way for world governments to resume improvements in the GHI and increase food production is to ensure the production and use of reliable forms of energy and fertilizers.

7. INCREASING WEALTH

Despite growing human populations, the number of people living in extreme poverty has decreased dramatically. The U.N.’s 2015 Millennium Development Goals Report notes that, “In 1990, nearly half of the population in the developing world lived on less than $1.25 a day; that proportion dropped to 14% in 2015.” World Bank numbers mirror this report. The World Bank explains that, in 2015, only 10% of the world’s population experienced “extreme poverty,” which they define as living on less than $1.90/day. This means that 1.1 billion fewer people — a 36% reduction — live in extreme poverty than did in 1990.

8. LONGER LIVES

Human life expectancy has also gone up significantly over the past several decades, primarily due to advances in medical science and agriculture, especially in the developing world. CDC statistics indicate that life expectancy in OECD countries has increased from 1980 to 2015. In the United States, average life expectancy at birth was 70.0 years for men and 77.4 for women in 1980. But by 2020, those numbers had increased to 74.2 and 79.9 years, respectively.

9. VACCINES WORK

Improving medical technologies include the production and use of vaccines, which have eliminated or radically decreased the prevalence of many deadly diseases. The CDC estimates that, for children born between 1994 and 2013, vaccines will help to avoid more than 21 million hospitalizations and 732,000 deaths. Vaccines have already brought about a 79% reduction in measles-related deaths, essentially eradicated small pox, and ensured the US has been polio free since 1979. CDC predicts that widespread vaccine use will save $1.38 trillion in total costs to society.

10. CHEAP, RELIABLE, AND CLEAN ENERGY

One of the reasons we have the ability to clean our environment and produce better medicines and food is the easy availability of affordable, reliable and increasingly clean energy. The advent of improved exploration and fracking technologies means that, even though we’re using more, we actually have far greater accessible reserves of natural gas and oil than we’ve ever had. EIA data indicates that while American natural gas production has increased by more than 79% from 2007 to 2021, our proved reserves of natural gas have increased from 211 trillion cubic feet in 2006 to over 473 Tcf in 2020.

11. NATURAL GAS

In the U.S., and around the world, we’ve been making good use of these fuels. Worldwide consumption of natural gas, the cleanest burning fossil fuel, has increased by more than 600%since 1965. Despite the increased use, prices for this essential fuel remain relatively low. Natural gas prices were at around $4.40/million Btu in early 2022, compared to $13.33 in June 2008. A clean burning and affordable fuel leads us to our next point.

12. CLEAN AIR

While some may argue that increased use of fossil fuels entails more air pollution, our air is much cleaner today than it has been in the past several decades. EPA data show that national levels of the six “criteria air pollutants” tracked by federal regulators have decreased by an average of 78% from 1970 to 2020. Today all six of these pollutant levels are below the EPA’s national standards.

13. SAFER VEHICLES

We’re using more energy to move ourselves around, but improved technologies in automobiles — air bags, stronger and lighter metal alloys, the addition of crumple zones, etc. – mean that the number of vehicle traffic fatalities has dropped dramatically: from a rate of 3.35 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled in 1975 to 1.36 in 2021.

14. MORE EFFICIENT

At the same time as we are using more energy, our use of that energy is becoming far more efficient. In just one example, the Department of Energy reports that people voluntarily switching to LED lighting will save the U.S. as much as $30 billion and 348 terawatt-hours of electric power (compared with traditional incandescent lights). Those savings come (in part) from the fact that LEDs consume 75 percent less energy and last 25 times longer than incandescent bulbs.

15. CO₂ CAPTURE

We have repeatedly questioned the so-called consensus narrative on climate change. But for those who remain concerned that human-caused climate change presents a potentially catastrophic challenge to our continued survival, one new technology should provide you some comfort. This new technology, which is being developed by researchers at M.I.T., is much like a large battery that absorbs carbon dioxide from the air as it is being charged. It can then be discharged by releasing and capturing the CO₂. The captured CO₂ gas can be used in medical or industrial processes and food production.

16. OZONE REPLENISHMENT

The ozone hole: In the early 1980s, scientists discovered that, each spring, a hole was opening in the ozone layer over the Antarctic due to destructive interactions between human-made chlorofluorocarbons and ozone in the stratosphere. The ozone layer is essential because it blocks a portion of the UV-B light that comes from the sun, protecting people, animals, and plants from potentially damaging exposure to too much UV-B radiation. In 2019, NASA found that the ozone hole was the smallest ever recorded. When growing in the spring, the hole is as large as 8 million square miles, but in 2019, it reached a maximum size of 6.3 million square miles and then shrank down to less than 3.9 million square miles. While the size of the hole expanded to 9.5 million square miles in 2021, researchers reassured readers that this recent expansion is temporary and “does not mean the longer-term aim to close the ozone hole is off track.”

17. CO₂ IS PLANT FOOD

NASA also reports that, “From a quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands have shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.” Furthermore, the greening of the planet is benefitting developing nations the most. The research, a collaborative effort among 32 authors and 24 institutions in eight countries, found a 14% increase in green, leafy biomass, or plants, over the past three decades. They estimated that 70% of the increase is due to increased levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere.

18. GENETIC LIBRARY

To speed up responses to pathogens — pests and diseases — in agricultural crops, a genetic “library” has been created by researchers at the John Innes Centre in the U.K., with help from researchers in the U.S. and Australia. Together, they have developed a technique called AgRenSeq that uses genetic material from wild plants known to be resistant to a variety of pests and diseases. Researchers can insert the disease-resistant genes into domestic relatives and then speedily clone crops that have a defense against many pathogens the crops might encounter.

19. COSMIC CRISP APPLES

After being designed and bred for more than two decades, the ‘Cosmic Crisp’ apple is now being sold commercially. The apple has been in development since 1997, with generation after generation carefully selected to grow in all of Washington state’s microclimates. Even more impressive is the fact that, once picked, it can last up to a year in the refrigerator. So far, the new variety has been very popular; over 15 million individual trees have been planted across Washington state.

20. PESTICIDES

While they are often vilified, pesticides have been used for decades to protect crops and significantly increase yields in both industrial and smaller organic farming. When used properly, these pesticides can help reduce losses of fruits and vegetables by between 50% and 90%. That means more food is produced on fewer acres of land. Additionally, new technologiesallow farmers to reduce overall pesticide use, while still maintaining productivity.

21. GEOSPATIAL TECHNOLOGY

This technology allows for more accurate pest detection and more effective and targeted use of pesticides. Additionally, as noted above, genetically engineered crops can now have built-in protection against pests and diseases. Both technologies help protect crops from predation, saving around $60 billion in the U.S. from 2002 to 2008.

22. HEALTHIER, MORE PRODUCTIVE CROPS

The enset, a banana-like staple food crop that grows in a wide variety of conditions, is being genetically engineered by the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture and Ethiopian researchers to resist bacterial wilt. Scientists are sequencing the DNA of hundreds of varieties of enset to determine how best to spread the use of this beneficial crop to other areas of the world that need it the most.

23.AQUACULTURE

In eastern Indiana, AquaBounty Technologies is growing the first genetically modified salmon, “creating sustainable fishing and getting fresh seafood closer to consumers.” The company edited genes in Atlantic salmon so the fish grow to market size almost twice as fast as wild varieties. By isolating their operations in an inland setting, they can also reduce disease spread and address concerns about these fish influencing wild populations.

24. POLAR BEARS

Contrary to claims that accompanied a heart-wrenching 2017 video of a starving polar bear, the species is not being driven to extinction by climate change. In fact, according to The State of the Polar Bear 2021, prepared by Dr. Susan Crockford for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, the wild population has increased from about 5,000 in the 1950s to the current “global polar bear population [of] at least 32,000.”

25. HALTING EXTINCTIONS

Scientists are working to halt the impending extinction of the northern white rhinoceros. The last remaining male of the species died of old age in 2018. But scientists preserved sperm from that individual and have harvested ten eggs from the remaining two females. A joint effort, involving the Ol Pejeta Conservancy, the Leibniz Institute for Zoo & Wildlife Research, Dvůr Králové Zoo in the Czech Republic, and the Kenya Wildlife Service, is using IVF to breed offspring. This extraordinary attempt may save the near-extinct species, and provide a ray of hope for other threatened and endangered species.

26. MOSQUITO CONTROL

Researchers at the University of Maryland teamed up with African colleagues to genetically modify a species of fungus that naturally infects the Anopheles mosquito. The modifications cause the fungus to produce a toxic venom once it is ingested by the mosquitos. In testing, researchers built a small, artificial village and enclosed it with mosquito netting. They added 1,500 mosquitos to a portion of the study area that contained the fungus. Within 45 days, only 13 mosquitos remained; 99% had succumbed to the fungus.

27. LAZARUS SPECIES

“Lazarus species” — more than 20 separate species that were thought to be extinct have been rediscovered, many in remote locations or deep beneath the ocean surface. One of these species is the small elephant of the Indonesian island of Java. This species survived because of the elephant trade in Asia decades ago; the tiny elephants were considered valuable by traders, so they were captured and bred in captivity before poachers could reach them.

28. LAZARUS RIVER

The Thames river and its tributaries in the United Kingdom appear to be showing a remarkable improvement in biodiversity and wildlife numbers, despite London becoming increasingly urban and populated. The U.K.’s Center for Ecology & Hydrology found that the river is “starting to reach levels one might expect to find in a river without any wastewater.” Modern sewage treatment systems, mixed with other technological improvements and restrictions on dumping pollutants, have allowed the river to revive. Considered biologically dead in 1957, the river system has regained 125 different species of fish, as well as many other plant and wildlife species. Recreational and commercial fisheries have returned.

29. RECOVERING ENDANGERED SPECIES

Even the progressive activists at the Center for Biological Diversity recognize that endangered species are doing much better in the United States than in earlier years. Their 2012 paper, “On Time, On Target” says that 90% of the species protected under the Endangered Species Act have been recovering at rates proposed in federal recovery plans. The center says that habitat preservation and captive-breeding programs have helped to increase the populations of sensitive species like the peregrine falcon, wood bison, and sea otter, among others. Populations of several species, like the black-footed ferret or the El Segundo blue butterfly, have increased by several thousand percent. Of the bird populations covered by the Endangered Species Act, 85% have increased or stabilized.

30. FULL BELLIES

The U.N.’s Millennium Goal #1 for 2015, announced in 2000, was to reduce by half the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. But the world actually met that target five years early! The New York Times and the U.N. annual hunger report both note that from 1990 to 2015, the number of people who lived in a state of hunger dropped by more than 200 million — from 991 million to 780 million.

31. IMPROVING PLANT PRODUCTIVITY

Using science to improve food production has helped reduce hunger. One recent example comes from the Realizing Increased Photosynthetic Efficiency research project, in which researchers are taking the higher photosynthetic capacity of algae and inserting it into crop plants. Doing this allows these plants to convert CO₂ into sugar more efficiently and to better transform light energy into chemical energy. Together, these improvements could increase the productivity of plants by up to 60%, while helping them use water more efficiently.

32. HIGHER CHILDHOOD SURVIVAL RATES

Unicef reports that the worldwide mortality rate of children under five years old has been cut to less than half its 1990 total, dropping from 93 deaths per 1,000 live births, to 37 in 2020. And the number of children who died before reaching their fifth birthday dropped from 12.7 million in 1990 to about 5 million in 2020.

33. CONTROLLING HIV

HIV.gov reports that thanks to new treatments and better education, the spread of HIV and AIDS has been reduced by about 31% since 2010. Additionally, the number of people living with HIV but receiving antiretroviral therapy increased from 800,000 in 2003 to 28.2 million in 2020.

34. CONTROLLING MALARIA

W.H.O. numbers show that malaria-caused mortality dropped by 38% from 2000 to 2019, due to rapidly expanding interventions and better treatments. Sadly, the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the battle to limit the spread of malaria. Total cases jumped from 227 million in 2019 to 241 million in 2020. Global deaths increased from 558,000 in 2019 to 627,000 in 2020. The number of malaria deaths should resume their declines as we learn to live with SARS-CoV-2 virus.

35. MORE TREES – MORE FORESTS

Our World in Data reports that tree planting — or afforestation — and the natural expansion of forests have decreased the global rate of deforestation. The net loss of forests around the world has been reduced from an annual average of 7.8 million hectares in 1990 to 4.7 million hectares per year in the decade since 2010. Additionally, many developed nations are actually adding to their forested lands. For example, the United States increased its forested area by 153% from 1990 to 2010.

36. SAFE DRINKING WATER

The United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals include one goal to reduce by half the proportion of people around the planet who lack “sustainable access to safe drinking water.” Initially, the U.N. had hoped to meet that goal by 2015, but it was achieved five years ahead of schedule. Between 1990 and 2015, the percentage of people who obtained access to “improved drinking water sources” jumped from 76% to 90%.

37. SANITATION

In a related benefit, the U.N. also aimed to increase worldwide access to basic sanitation. From 1990 to 2015, 2.1 billion people gained access to improved sanitation. Since 1995, the percentage of worldwide population relying on unsafe sanitation dropped from 57% to 33%. Given the value of handwashing in reducing the spread of diseases and pathogens, continued improvement in this area is essential.

38. BATTERY PRICES

International Energy Agency data indicate that prices for lithium batteries, which are used for energy storage and in many electronic devices, have dropped significantly. From 2010 to 2018, utility scale battery prices decreased from approximately $4,300/kWh to $1,600/kWh, a 63% decrease. The research firm BloombergNEF explains the price declines by noting that, “factory costs are falling thanks to improvements in manufacturing equipment and increased energy density at the cathode and cell level.” Growing demand for lithium ion batteries for personal electronics, electric vehicles, and utility scale batteries is currently pushing prices for lithium and batteries up. It remains to be seen whether world governments will allow rapid permitting of lithium mines or other innovative battery technologies to help reduce prices.

39. BATTERIES 2.0

While they still face substantial barriers related to price, supply, and environmental impacts, lithium battery installations grew by 45% in 2018. The World Energy Council reports that pumped hydroelectric storage currently supplies over 96% of worldwide energy storage, but battery storage has the most potential for growth. They predict that “as much as 250 GW of energy storage [will be] installed by 2030,” and that the costs of battery storage could drop by 50-66% by 2030.

40. SAVING HUMAN LIVES

Despite many frightening headlines about deaths from extreme weather, deaths from natural disasters have actually dropped significantly since 1900. In the early 20th century, annual deaths from natural disasters — earthquakes, famines, tornadoes, flooding, etc. — often exceeded one million. More recently, there are fewer than 20,000 annual deaths caused by natural disasters, a 98% reduction. Often this number is below 10,000, and has not gone over 500,000 since the 1960s. This dramatic decrease in deaths caused by natural disasters has occurred despite the addition of more than two billion people to the planet over the past 25 years.

41. ELECTRIFICATION

The global electrification rate has now reached 89%, as 153 million people gain access to electricity each year. Worldwide, the number of people who lack access to electricity dropped to 770 million in 2019. Once again, the COVID-19 pandemic has reversed this positive trend and some areas are seeing growing numbers without access to electricity. However, we expect numbers to resume their declines as we learn to live with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

42. SAFER FISHING

Improved fishing methods have increased the fish catch off the coast of Mexico while also reducing the percent of sea turtles caught in fishing nets. Grupo Tortuguero is a coalition of groupsin the region researching changes to fishing practices to reduce the bycatch and unintended deaths of sea turtles, while maintaining or increasing the fishing success of local fishers. Hanging lights on fishing nets decreases the number of turtles caught and increases the number of fish, for instance. Researchers from Duke University have found conservation efforts like these have led to a “90-percent reduction of sea turtles as bycatch since 1990.”

43. BIO-LOGGERS

Specialized devices that record animal behaviors and habitat conditions are playing a valuable role in wildlife and habitat conservation. Research published on Intechopen.com indicates that these devices use GPS and other instruments to track animal movement patterns and “measure the animals’ physiology, behavior, demographics, community interactions, and the environment [the] animal inhabits.” With improving technologies and reduced battery sizes, it is now possible to bio-log the activities of a broad range of organisms — from insects to blue whales.

44. CLEAN, BASELOAD ENERGY

Researchers at Michigan Tech University have created a process to clean and revivify coal-fired electricity generation plants that have been targeted for closure. Ezra Bar-Ziv’s research uses a process called “torrefaction” — heating biomass and plastic waste in oxygen-free conditions — to create what he calls “biocoal.” Bar-Ziv explains that, while they are still working on sourcing sufficient supplies of affordable biomass, he believes his process could keep existing baseload plants open, maintaining jobs and reducing overall emissions.

45. BREWING BEER WITH BURNT IRON

A family brewery, based in the Netherlands, has begun burning very finely ground iron powder to heat its brewing process. When burned, this inexpensive, easily transported and stored fuel can produce a great deal of heat. Where other heating processes produce various pollutants, this process is reported to produce heat and rust (iron oxide). The rust can be regenerated into iron powder using electricity and then reused in the heating process, with the claimed benefits for the fuel focusing on energy storage. It’s still very early in the development of this technology, but there are plans to expand to a 10 MW system by 2024 and to replace an existing coal-fired plant by 2030.

46. IDENTIFYING RARE SPECIES

Identifying rare species is becoming easier as Expeditionlab’sportable “GENE” field labs are moving the technical abilities of an established laboratory into a field setting. The GENE system allows field researchers to “extract, amplify, and sequence DNA” and has proven especially useful in remote areas. It can analyze the DNA of plants and animals to aid in the rapid identification of rare and hard-to-find species.

47. ARTIFICIAL REEFS

Artificial reefs are being built around the world in an attempt to encourage the growth of marine life and reverse the loss of coral reefs. As a result of reef-building efforts in Australia, 50 species of fish have moved onto one artificial reef, where only 12 had been before. While not all attempts to build artificial reefs are successful, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission reports that “more than 3,750 planned public artificial reefs have been placed in state and federal waters off Florida’s coast,” and many of those will succeed.

48. GREENER GREENHOUSES

Automated greenhouses are cheaper to run. Automation is allowing greenhouse operators to grow a wider variety of plants and produce a more consistent product year-round, regardless of location or outside climate. Contemporary greenhouses are increasingly tech-reliant, using LED grow-lights, sensors and computer automation to monitor and increase production. These newer technologies allow greenhouses to save on energy and production costs.

49. OYSTER CASTLES

The Chesapeake Bay Program, a partnership of government, academic, and nongovernmental organizations, was established to improve water quality, educate the public, and sustain the local economy. As part of its efforts, the program is working to rebuild oyster populations that declined due to, among other things, increased harvesting. Typically, oyster shells are sent to landfills after the oysters have been eaten. This practice actually reduces oyster populations because juvenile oyster larvae rely on the shells of their forebears to anchor and establish themselves. The Chesapeake Bay Program is building “living shorelines” made up of plants, sand, rock, and a mix of concrete and oyster shells as a way to provide a habitat for juvenile oysters. As each new generation of oysters becomes established on these castles, the living shorelines will also help reduce shoreline erosion, improve water quality and restore wetlands.

50. TREE PLANTING WITH DRONES

Drones are now being used to speed up the planting process for trees and crops. One company that has developed drones, and the software to replant areas that have been logged or impacted by wildfire is called DroneSeed. Its specially equipped drones can plant up to 800 tree seed vessels per hour, compared to the entire day it takes an effective human tree planter to do the same work. Various agriculture startups have created drone systems that help to map out planting areas, improve crop spraying systems, monitor crop growth, and even “decrease planting costs by 85 percent,” according to work done by PwC.

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