Trend Kaleidoscope 2024 … Curating all the best trend reports, from AI hype to being human, sustainable and synthetic reality, value hackers and zenthusiasts … What should you do next?

January 22, 2024

How will economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the reality of climate change, the speed of tech advance, and uncertainty about AI, shape consumer attitudes and preferences in the year ahead? What is the economic outlook by industry and region? How can businesses respond with new ideas and innovation?

Trend Kaleidoscope 2024 is a compilation of over 50 reports about economic and industry outlooks, market and consumer trends, emerging technologies and new possibilities, and much more. We all recognise the uncertainty driven by conflicts, climate and economics, and the spluttering growth of today’s environment – but two big, closely related, trends stand out:

  • AI hype and being human … 12 months of ChatGPT has certainly sparked enthusiasm for AI startups, investment and innovation … but at the same time (a legacy of pandemic, and antidote to digitalisation) is the desire to be more human – more personal, empathic, and in search of real experiences, from in-store immersions to meditative moments and travel adventures.
  • Sustainable and synthetic reality … technological innovation is taking us in two directions – to address the problems of the past (most significantly, the huge and difficult effort to decarbonise old industries – although energy transition has stalled because of the greed of higher oil prices) – and also a huge rise in new synthetic innovations, from gene-editing and mRNA in healthcare, to alternative foods and VR gaming.

Also take a look at who I see as some of the most innovative businesses who are likely to deliver rapid progress in 2024, just some of the 250 inspiring companies which I track for their innovation and performance:

  • Authentic Brands, from Ali to Elvis, Reebok to Ted Baker
  • BYD, Chinese EV maker, now the world’s #3 automotive business
  • Holcim, Swiss cement, building progress for people and planet
  • Lilium, former Airbus and BMW leaders, innovating the future of flight
  • MercadoLibre, the Amazon of Argentina, from retail to finance
  • Northvolt, pioneering a sustainable battery industry, key to future energy
  • Rains, concept meets function in Nordic outerwear from Aarhus
  • SSAB, zero carbon steel from Sweden, stronger, lighter and more sustainable
  • Twelve, capturing carbon, to make more sustainable plastics and fuels
  • Vuori, soft and stylish Californian fashion, ready for IPO in 2024

While looking ahead, it’s also interesting to see how the last year has unfolded – as predicted by Trend Kaleidoscope 2023 – from ChatGPT to $3 trillion Apple thriving on financial services, BYD’s rapid acceleration to lead the auto market, AI-generated influencer Noonoouri’s chart-topping hit with Warner Music, and India joining the space race.

Slower, greener growth

As polycrisis consumes agendas around the world – conflicts, climate and more – the IMF Economic Outlook 2024  sees a continued stagnation of growth in western markets next year (1.2% in Europe, 1.5% in USA) but higher in Asia (4.4% in China, 6.1% in India), and 2.9% average globally.

The EIU’s Industry Outlook 2024 reflects on the turbulence of recent years for most companies as the pandemic, soaring commodity prices, high interest rates and political disruption resulted in profits for many and bankruptcy for some. It produces a weather forecast by industry:

EIU also considers the next agendas on each continent

  • Europe 2024: Subdued growth, political fragmentation and the green transition.
  • North America 2024: US elections will dominate the year, while the economy will struggle with higher borrowing costs.
  • Latin America 2024: substantial political change has led to democratic retreat and social risks.
  • Asia 2024: Strong growth despite China’s slowing economy and geopolitical tensions.

Ipsos’ Global predictions for 2024: Optimism is on the rise as more think next year will be better

  • 53% say 2023 was a bad year for them and 70% say it was a bad year for their country. This is the lowest level since before the Covid-19 pandemic.
  • Seventy per cent think next year will be a better year than this one. This is an increase of 5pp on last year’s figure.
  • More people think AI will lead to more jobs being lost than being created in 2024.
  • After 2023 being the hottest year on record, 81% expect average global temperatures to go even higher in 2024.
  • A majority (59%) think we’ll spend more time working in the office in 2024 than working at home.

The Economist focuses on 10 business trends:

  • Central banks including America’s Federal Reserve start to reduce interest rates as price rises slow. With global inflation still at 5%, however, consumers remain thrifty.
  • Amid efforts to slow climate change, renewable-energy consumption climbs by 11% to a new high. But fossil fuels still meet over four-fifths of energy demand
  • IT spending picks up, rising by about 9%. Artificial intelligence generates remarkable hype but produces precious little revenue and plenty of scrutiny.
  • The gap between the infrastructure the world needs and what it gets amounts to $3trn. To plug its infrastructure hole, Asia’s gross fixed investment expands by 4%.
  • Revenue in the advertising industry increases by 5%, thanks to America’s presidential election and big sporting events such as the Paris Olympics.
  • International tourism rises above geopolitical and economic uncertainty to create record revenue of $1.5trn, fuelled by high prices and post-pandemic wanderlust.
  • A greying world spends vigorously on health. With about one in ten people aged 65 or older, health care makes up one-tenth of global gdp.
  • America shells out $886bn on defence, supporting Ukraine and countering China—whose neighbours, including Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines, also bolster their defences.
  • Electric vehicles speed forth, driven by strong government support. One in four new cars is a plug-in, with more than half of these sold in China.
  • With 60% of America’s firms allowing working from home, a fifth of American offices lie empty. The eu’s less relaxed employers will keep its vacancy rate at just 8%.

Being Human

Mintel’s Global Consumer Trends is summarised by these 5 themes:

  • Being Human: In a world increasingly dominated by algorithms, we will need human skills and emotion to make the most of this technological revolution. A new ‘human-as-premium’ label will emerge, giving greater influence to artisans who can take on the creative spirit that exists outside of an algorithm
  • More Than Money: Consumers will reassess what matters most to them, affecting not only what they want and need, but their perception of what constitutes value. The social and emotional value of a brand will grow in importance as consumers look more towards what a brand means to them personally, rather than what it stands for societally.
  • Relationship Renaissance: Consumers who find comfort through screens at the cost of meaningful, real-life relationships, will seek new forms of intimacy for the sake of their physical and mental health. Consumers don’t just want to be cared for; they want to care for others too, including their pets and plants.
  • New Green Reality: Incorporating sustainability into the day-to-day is not enough; consumers and brands will be faced with the reality that survival within a new climate context has to be the priority. Anxious consumers may be reluctant to adopt necessary lifestyle changes, which will drive brands to do more to help smooth these transitions.
  • Positive Perspectives: Brands and consumers will work together in new ways to deal with uncertainty. To counter the feeling of always waiting for something to happen, consumers are waiting for a clear sense of direction, or profound statements from voices of authority, including brands.

These trends are illustrated by innovations that have emerged in recent months around the world:

  • US biotech company Nix launched a wearable hydration biosensor that calculates fluid and electrolyte loss and informs the user about their hydration levels.
  • Danish tech start-up Be My Eyes has incorporated OpenAI’s GPT-4 into its eponymous mobile app to create a virtual visual assistant for blind and partially-sighted people that can generate spoken words from images.
  • Artists and illustrators in the US are using the hashtag #artbyhumans as a form of silent protest and a rallying cry against the abundance of AI-generated images/art.
  • Digital bank Brubank Argentina invited entrepreneurs to use AI and the Mi Negocio app to submit visualisations of their dream store and the bank produced the digital designs for free.
  • French cooperative Ethikis has developed the Longtime label, a quality mark to help consumers identify durable products.
  • Chinese baijiu brand Wuliangye has launched ‘W Planet’, a metaverse-based virtual space, aimed at encouraging young consumers to experience its brand culture.
  • US food processing company Heinz has created a collectable sauce packet for all 50 US states, each one highlighting a regional delicacy from the state to bring Americans together rather than highlight what divides them.
  • Chinese fragrance brand Documents has opened a community-based store in Shanghai—‘Yuyuan Bookspace’ (愚园书室)—where consumers can read themed books (eg trees) for free while experiencing Documents’ fragrance products.
  • ‘Body doubling’—the practice of using livestreams to replicate the feeling of working alongside others to boost productivity—is becoming increasingly popular among remote workers and students in the US, with virtual platforms like Flow Club matching members in small accountability groups.
  • The staff at Tokyo’s Tomodachi ga Yatteru Café (‘Café Run By Friends’) are actors who pretend to know every customer who walks in to make them feel like long-time friends.
  • Australian start-up Immersion Group harvests and supplies red seaweed, which produces a compound called bromoform. When fed to cattle and sheep, bromoform blocks an enzyme in the gut that produces methane, thereby, reducing methane levels in livestock farming.
  • Coffee and espresso machine maker Nespresso partners with small organic farmers in Taiwan, supplying them with coffee grounds to enrich their soil. Local Italian, vegetarian restaurant Miacucina created a special menu centred around cabbages harvested from farms using these coffee grounds.
  • For April Fool’s Day 2023, US-based women’s clothing brand Cuyana launched a fictional clothing line, ‘Made With Air’, stating it had no negative impact on the environment, as a tongue-in-cheek way of drawing attention to brands that greenwash through various environmental claims.
  • Indian instant delivery service, Blinkit’s, ‘Recipe Rover’ utilises ChatGPT technology to enable users to explore different recipes and add suggested ingredients to their Blinkit shopping carts.
  • The 2023 Faal Festival (‘Failure Festival’) in the Netherlands encouraged young people to embrace failure through talks and activities to improve their mental health.
  • Inception is a US-based mental health gym that helps members take a holistic approach to health by achieving ‘inner fitness’ through mindfulness and relaxation.
  • Chinese Buddhist temples are launching new offerings, like blessed objects, coffee drinks and mental health counselling, to attract younger generations, making them the latest trendy destination for Gen Z which seeks pleasure and slowness in their hectic lifestyles.

Ethical Zen

Statista’s “Must Watch” Consumer Trends 2024 are strongly driven by the economic context of inflation, rising living costs, and unpredictable demands which are reshaping consumer spending habits and needs.

  • Quest for quality: the search for a new quality-value equation in tough economic times. Despite tightened consumer budgets they prefer to buy better, not simply cheaper – better quality, more sustainable – forget disposable consumption and fast fashion. This is leading to a rise in premium products, selectively purchased, but also a thrift economy.
  • Ethical spenders: Sustainability and ethics at the forefront of decision-making. Sustainability is no longer just a buzzword. Ethical Spenders will buy from eco-friendly brands, even during challenging times. Ethical Spenders are willing to pay a premium for essential goods that align with their values – especially food and drink, beauty, homeware and fashion.
  • Zenthusiasts: The hunt for respite from stress and anxiety is surging. Spearheaded by Gen Z and Millennials, these generations are acknowledging the mounting stressors in their lives. Zenthusiasts are actively seeking solace through online health gurus who promote self-care and alternative therapies like cannabis.
  • Data Ad-vocates: Say goodbye to one-size-fits-all advertising. Consumers aren’t as concerned about data privacy if it means they get personalized content and experiences in return. Data Ad-vocates want ads catered to their interests, location, and lifestyle preferences. Personalization can be a powerful way to attract new as well as retain customers.

Where’s the love?

Accenture’s Life Trends 2024 report is a refreshingly human view of emerging behaviours, but from a tech expert company. largely thanks to its acquisition of Fjord which did great work on trends.

The report starts by asking “Where’s the love?”

“For years, the correlation between customer experience and revenue growth inspired organizations to hold the customer at the center of every decision. Now, economic considerations are forcing cuts throughout enterprises, driving friction between customers and brands across channels—in the form of price increases, quality cuts, illogical subscriptions, and poor customer service. Customers are noticing, and some feel hard done by. The key question: How do brands keep their product in the basket in the long term?”

Businesses are scrambling to cut costs and protect profits against a strained economic backdrop.

They’ve made tough decisions to survive, with one major consequence: the erosion of customer experiences. Like it or loathe it, consumerism is a socio-economic fact of life for billions of people, with much of their day-to-day experience influenced or mediated by consumer culture. The changes described in this trend are having a significant impact across multiple aspects of life, affecting how people feel every day.

Until recently, the direct link between profit and customer experience made the latter top priority, often at the expense of other factors.2 Widespread digital adoption in the 1990s—particularly the internet and, later, smartphones—pushed focus onto experience, which hadn’t previously been emphasized by many businesses outside hospitality. Screen-driven interaction expanded design’s scope beyond physical and graphic design to include usability and desirability.

Barbie, brands and beyond

Barbie smashed box office records in 2023, the movie earning $1.44 billion, but the pink-themed brand spread far beyond the big screen.

Over 160 brands had Barbie collaborations during the year, from Barbie cosmetics to scented candles, Barbie sofas to kitchen appliances.

You could feast on Burger King Barbie burgers, followed by Pinkberry Barbie frozen yoghurt and wash it all down with Barbie x Swoon pink lemonade. They could even pack their cutest outfits in Béis x Barbie luggage and jet off to a Malibu Airbnb decked out as a veritable Dreamhouse.

Contagious magazine’s Most Contagious Report 2023 makes Barbie its brand of the year.

The report also profiles the best ad campaigns of the last year:

  • Warner Bros/Mattel’s “The Barbie Movie” … the marketing campaign was so extensive that it transcended the film it was promoting, unleashing a Barbie movement months before it hit cinemas.
  • Ikea “Proudly Second Best” … In a series of ads, Ikea in the Middle East presented heartwarming parenting situations, like a baby snoozing on its mother’s chest instead of in its fully kitted Ikea cot, where the brand was happy for its furniture to be ‘second best’.
  • Apple “Relax, it’s iPhone” … The ads captured relatable moments of interaction between humans and their iPhones, like sending a text you immediately regret or shakily recording a video of your kid playing sports, to promote features like ‘Unsend iMessage’ and the motion-smoothing Action Mode.
  • Fiat “Operation No Grey” …  Fiat dunked its CEO into a giant vat of orange paint. The epic stunt was shot for real at a suitably vibrant Italian piazza and symbolised the manufacturer’s promise to live up to its dolce vita values by no longer selling its cars in grey (despite it being the most popular colour in many markets).
  • Carrefour “Shrinkflation” … By affixing labels on products that had shrunk in size but increased in price, French supermarket Carrefour provided shoppers with useful information and showed it was on their side during a difficult economic time.
  • Romania “the Most Beautiful Dental Clinic in the World” … Romanian travel agents and dentists teamed up to promote local  dental tourism, offering packages that combined excursions to Romania’s cultural sites with a trip to the dentist, targeting countries like the UK with long waiting lists, while also promoting the country.

In WARC’s annual Marketer’s Toolkit survey 61% of CMOs have higher business expectations for 2024 than the year just gone. This is probably because consumer spend- ing has remained surprisingly high. It has kept the US economy out of recession, and helped coin the term “YOLO economy” (you only live once), an economy driven by consumers prioritising today over the future.

Thanks also to events such as the Paris 2024 Olympics and US election spending, WARC expects global advertising spend to grow 8.2% in 2024.

Gen Y and Z

Australia-based Soon Futures have some greatFuture Forecasts 2024, focusing on Gen Y and Z, with 7 themes:

  • Life Wellbeing: An eruption of destabilising societal ills and issues is guiding a new holistic and collective approach to feeling and healing. This chapter features six emerging trends including emotional hygiene, financial wellbeing, super-natural, faith reformed, community wellness, and audio healing.
  • Meta-Worlds: Touted as the next internet, the opportunity value the Metaverse unlocks is well into the trillions. In the last year, as society moved online, we were offered a glimpse into what the next digital future will look like. This chapter features six emerging trends including experience enhanced, digital citizens, omniverse, the metro-verse, blockchain boom, and NFT rush.
  • Age of Awareness: Today’s structures, constructs, and labels don’t reflect the changing values of Gen Z. In 2024, alternative voices will challenge the status quo while the call to action for inclusivity and equality will pose a non-negotiable for brands and businesses. This chapter features six emerging trends including pop culture push, inclusive by design, corporate accountability, art-tivism, intimacy introspection, and psychonaut subculture.
  • Reworking Work: With the Great Resignation under way, and a fundamental shift in how we view the traditional 9-5, young people are redesigning their relationship with labour, hierarchy, and hustle culture. This chapter features five emerging trends including polywork, be your own boss (BYOB), micropreneurship, 4-day work week, and the screen surge.
  • Revenge Travel: Despite the present home-centric mindset people are experiencing, 2024 brings with it a new appetite for immersive, transformative, and regenerative experiences. This chapter features five emerging trends including the bleisure boom, extended voyages, regenerative travel, transformative travel, and next-level luxury.
  • Retail Revival: E-commerce was the focal point during the pandemic but in 2024, physical stores will become important hubs for convenience, community, and curated ease. This chapter features 10 retail strategies to invest in, centred around convenience, curation, and community.
  • Post-Growth Paradigm: The growth imperative is under a critical review, as discerning Gen Z challenge (and blame) the current economic system for its harmful impact on the environment. This chapter features six emerging trends including questioning capitalism, the recycle boom, climate tech, meatless majority, material innovation, and farming futures.

Drivers of change

GenZ get real

Instagram Trend Talk 2024 explores Gen Z’s take on trends that will drive global culture in the year ahead. It starts by saying 2023 was a year on socials to remember. From Barbie-core painting the world pink, to the rise of the ‘girl dinner’, viral moments and trends on Instagram and beyond have been driving global culture and influencing Gen Z’s next move.

  • Gen Z is all about prioritizing meaningful connections in 2024, with the generation planning to use social media to keep up with their friends and family. A close second was to stay on top of trends (Fashion, Music, Tech)
  • When asked how they use their Instagram to get closer to someone, the top ways were: liking someone’s story, sending reels or memes in DMs, and liking a post on their feed.

2024 is going to be defined as Gen Z’s growth era, with many honing in on self improvement and development. Gen Z’s top eras for 2024:

  • #1 Self Improvement or Development
  • #2 Lucky
  •  #3 Unapologetically Myself

TikTok’s “What’s Next” 2024 Trend Report for brand owners says that in 2024, the TikTok community will ignite a transformative mindset:  Creative Bravery. Fueled by a blend of curiosity, imagination, vulnerability and courage, brands demonstrating Creative Bravery on TikTok will build deeper community connections. Breaking through on TikTok means shifting from occasional displays of Creative Bravery to infusing it into their daily behavior and strategies. Brands that will see most success will regularly pique global curiosities, flip traditional story arcs, and deepen trust with their audiences.

  • Curiosity Peaked: Users come to TikTok looking for far more than a single ‘right answer.’ Here, your every curiosity reaches its ‘peak’ with new interests leading to relevant perspectives, uncharted rabbit holes, and IRL action thanks to the perfect blend of passive discovery and an active mindset.
  • Storytelling Unhinged: Ends of stories are starting first. Multiple story arcs can happen at once. Communities are making up fictional celebrities and narratives. On TikTok, the shift where everyone can have a voice has unleashed creativity for all, where diverse voices, collaborative formats, and subject matters are flipping everything we know about traditional storytelling on its head.
  • Bridging the Trust Gap: There continues to be a growing trust gap between consumers and brands igniting audiences to seek beyond the engagement of a one-time sale. They’re also looking for brands to lead positive societal change and transparency. Establishing clear brand trust and values are non-negotiables. On TikTok, brands have an open line of communication with their consumers and community, and can leverage creators as shortcuts. Each campaign and organic piece of content is an opportunity to share, listen, and learn, building brand trust and values together to generate deeper loyalty on and off-platform.

Tech hype and AI, phages and omics 

Generative AI has stolen all of the air space in technology over the last year.

Future Today Institute led by Amy Webb always produces great insights into the emerging tech world, although her Tech Trends 2024 report tends to arrive mid year. Following a year, 2023, of breakneck innovation and global upheaval, she sees 10 key themes for 2024:

  • Concept-to-concrete AI unleashes a wave of innovation.
  • The crypto winter begins.
  • Making sustainability sustainable.
  • Algorithms are our labor force, and they may need professional licenses.
  • Wearables are back. They will usher in a new era of visual and voice answers.
  • Organiod intelligence will shape both computing and geopolitics.
  • Legal challenges are coming for big tech again––and could succeed this time.
  • Biotech accidentally creates a new genetic caste system.
  • A world of new materials.
  • Elections and unintentional misinformation.

Gartner is a tech advisor who maps what is hot, and what actually works. Their Top 10 Strategic Technology Trendsfor 2024 have a strong AI focus, with:

  • Democratised generative AI
  • AI trust, risk and security management.
  • AI-augmented development.
  • Intelligent applications.
  • Augmented-connected workforce.
  • Machine customers.
  • Continuous threat exposure management.
  • Sustainable technology.
  • Platform engineering.
  • Industry cloud platforms.

World Economic Forum has a more interesting report, the Top 10 Emerging Technologies, based on a huge global network of tech experts. The 10 technologies  go far beyond AI hype, and are

  • Flexible batteries: powering wearable technologies for healthcare and e-textiles.
  • Generative artificial intelligence: expanding the boundaries of human endeavour.
  • Sustainable aviation fuel: moving the aviation industry towards net-zero carbon emissions
  • Designer phages: engineering viruses to augment human, animal and plant health
  • Metaverse for mental health: shared virtual spaces to improve mental health
  • Wearable plant sensors: revolutionising agricultural data collection to feed the world
  • Spatial omics: molecular-level mapping of biological processes to unlock life’s mysteries.
  • Flexible neural electronics: better engineered circuits to interface with the nervous system
  • Sustainable computing: designing and implementing net-zero-energy data centres.
  • AI-facilitated healthcare: new technologies to improve the efficiency of healthcare systems

Expectation Economy

TrendWatching’s Trend Check 2024explores how the Expectation Economy is giving way to the Exchange Economy, an age requiring brands to work together to tackle the world’s toughest and most urgent problems. Over the last decade or so, this has been driven by two financial crises, a pandemic, countless climate-related disasters and deepening geopolitical tensions have, and will continue to, fundamentally alter the landscape. Trends include:

  • Sustainability on display: As the beauty sector’s not-so-pretty eco-reality — from deforestation to growing emissions — is uncovered, 50% of millennials globally and 45% of gen Z are prepared to drop personal care brands that fall short of their responsibility to the Earth. Example: Asket’s receipts itemize the environmental cost of every clothing purchase.
  • Code it yourself: Ever since the generative AI boom, conversations about tech have dominated public discourse. The adoption of LLMs and text-to-anything software created a newfound willingness to play and experiment, giving rise to a code it yourself mindset, with new tools enable consumer-led personalization. Example: BlueSky is a social media platform that lets users choose their own algorithm
  • Common Tongue: Reconnecting a divided world through entertainment. For entertainment brands who want to captivate diverse audiences, taking a definitive stance risks alienating audiences and inadvertently deepening polarized societies. Example: SOS AMAZÔNIA is a Fortnite game teaches gamers to protect Indigenous land.
  • BrandCare: Fashion brands take a more active role in caring for consumers’ health. Across the globe, pandemic-struck healthcare services still remain under pressure. As a result, care demands outweigh supply, pushing consumers to look elsewhere for ways to optimize their wellbeing. Example: Morrisons and NHS: UK supermarket puts cancer awareness messaging on underwear labels.
  • Future Proofed: Building financial literacy in a complex economic context. As the world grapples with widening economic disparities, record debt and a lack of affordable housing, there’s a clamour for financial literacy. Example: Brazil-based financial platform Nubank has introduced its version of the classic board game Game of Life.
  • Eco-Boosters: Sustenance that gives back to nature. A new wave of food and beverage consumers don’t want to just ‘cause less harm’, they want to go further, returning more to nature than they take. Example: London brewery Gipsy Hill release an offset-free, carbon-negative beer.

Future Shock

WGSN’s Future Consumer 2024 report starts with Alvin Toffler, author of Future Shock, who said “In the past, you made a decision and that was it. Now, you make a decision and you say, ‘What happens next?’ There’s always a next”.

Coined by futurist Alvin Toffler and Adelaide Farrell in their 1970 book of the same name, Future Shock refers to the social and emotional paralysis induced by the “shattering stress and disorientation” at the magnitude and velocity of the changes we are experiencing.

In 2024 we will see the dawn of the Everything Net – a circular existence where lines between physical and digital worlds are blurred. There is great promise in the meta-economies that will arise from this, but rapid technological change that affects daily life always induces a sense of anxiety. This uneasiness has a name: Future Shock.

The pandemic exacerbated these sentiments, and the subsequent war in Ukraine and cost-of-living crisis are only likely to compound these feelings. Disruption to routines, isolation from loved ones and conflation of home and work life all gave rise to chronic multitasking, particularly for those working remotely. A 2021 Microsoft study found that people multitask more frequently in larger and longer video meetings, and in recurring meetings rather than ad hoc ones.

To perform a task, several brain networks dealing with attention and cognitive control are involved. Kevin Madore, a neuroscientist at Stanford University in the US, has proven that attempts to multitask can create interference among these networks and this can lead to slower processing as well as mistakes, creating a chronic circle of stress. Research shows that only 2.5% of people are able to multitask effectively. When we think we are multitasking, we are actually performing individual actions in rapid succession.

Synthetic reality

Canvas8’s Expert Outlookis always one of the most considered sources of new insight, but unfortunately is not published in an easily accessible format. It identifies eight critical challenges that will shape consumer behaviour and brand-consumer relationships in the coming year:

  • Global Boiling Point: Living with extreme heat sparks a new climate, culture, or war.
  • Economic Polarization: People struggle to maintain control over their finances
  • Cultural Detachment: An overload of information makes consumers less committed to products and places.
  • Rogue Leaders: Volatile leadership creates a sense of anarchy.
  • Anti-human: A sense of human devaluation drives unrest.
  • Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DE&I): The failure of DE&I initiatives erodes trust.
  • Synthetic Reality: Artificial intelligence intensifies cognitive stress and challenges perceptions of truth.
  • Cyber Vigilantism: Digital security concerns foster technophobia.

AI excitement

GWI’s Connecting the Dots is another, in an interactive format rather than a report. Some of their big themes to dive into include:

  • The media’s got a trust problem: How to rewrite consumers’ relationship with the news. Media organizations should prioritize rebuilding public trust, highlighting the transparency, accuracy, and authenticity of their work.
  • AI excitement is rising, but so is concern: Navigating the tension between AI fears and opportunities. AI is set to become a core part of life for humans and businesses. To make the transition as smooth as possible, brands need to address consumers’ red flags.
  • Boomers are doing more scrolling and shopping: Why they offer brands bang for their buck. Boomers represent a lucrative and increasingly accessible market, as well as an untapped opportunity for many brands.
  • Short-form video is changing sports: How social media’s rewriting the sports playbook. Short-form video is key to drawing in new audiences, and major sports should get in on the action.
  • Veganism ain’t so hot anymore: How to make plant-based diets tasty again. Plant-based food’s addressable market is evolving. Food brands should target flexitarians and those interested in reducing their meat consumption, not just vegans.

Greenwashed out

Euromonitor also explores how consumer preferences are closely linked to the sustainability agenda, technological progress and the impact of sociopolitical issues.

  • Ask AI: New tools are evolving into co-creators for consumers, influencing their decisions and reshaping their expectations of brand engagement. These platforms will become increasingly integrated into consumers’ daily lives. Businesses should utilise generative AI to enhance personalisation and improve the overall customer experience.
  • Delightful Distractions: Consumers seek an escape from daily stress and anxieties to break away from the mundane. Some 29% of consumers would be comfortable with brands tracking their emotions and personalising experiences to their moods. 
  • Greenwashed Out: While consumers are attempting to live more sustainably, they question whether companies and governments are fully utilising available resources to create a meaningful impact. They want organisations to step up and show proof of their eco pledges.
  • Progressively Polarised: Political and social issues are at the core of personal identities. These belief systems influence perspectives, values and attitudes. Consumers will not refrain from expressing their convictions. Social responsibility, political affiliation and sustainability initiatives will motivate spending.
  • Value Hackers: With the ongoing cost-of-living crisis consumers are adjusting their financial mindset and 44% of consumers planned to save more money in 2023. They are employing increasingly clever strategies to get the very best deals. 
  • Wellness Pragmatists: Consumers are seeking fast and effective solutions to improve both their physical and mental wellbeing. Demonstrated effectiveness will play a significant role in their purchasing decisions.

Social is retail, retail is social

CapGemini‘s “What Matters to Today’s Consumer” Report 2024 finds that consumers are feeling a bit more optimistic than last year, despite the continued higher cost of living, and economic uncertainty. The report also explores attitudes to AI saying that consumers are generally positive about the benefits it can bring to their experiences.

  • 66% of users welcome product recommendations from generative AI
  • 60% trust services and products suggested by generative
  • 55% seek advice in areas such as diet plans, make-up suggestions, and fashion combinations from a generative AI tool.
  • 58% say generative AI should be able to identify their brand and product loyalty, thereby recommending similar products.

The reports main focus is on social commerce – or live commerce – with the increasing fusion of social to retail, and retail to social.

Social commerce refers to shopping experiences that occur directly on a social media platform, including clicking a link on a social network that leads to a retailer’s product page with an immediate purchase option.

  • 25% of consumers have bought a product via a social media platform: 41% of consumers from Spain; 30% from the US; and 28% from Sweden. More purchases are made by households with children (36%) than households without children (17%).
  • 46% of Gen Z consumers surveyed have made a purchase on a social media platform in the past year. Almost 48% of US Gen Z (aged 18‒29) say they will do at least some of their year-end shopping on social media platforms such as TikTok or Instagram.
  • Instagram (62%) and YouTube (62%) are the preferred purchasing platforms across generations of consumers, followed by Facebook (55%) and TikTok (44%). Gen Z consumers show a strong preference for Instagram (70%), TikTok (63%), and YouTube (58%) for their purchases, whereas Millennials primarily prefer to use Instagram (67%) and YouTube (63%)
  • The most strongly preferred platforms for Gen X and Boomer consumers are YouTube,Instagram, and Facebook.

Never Normal

Nexxworks “Look Up!” 2024 Trends Report starts with “We have arrived in the Never Normal, an era of accelerated change and enhanced complexity where companies will need to behave differently if they want to survive.

A beautiful example of our times was the OpenAI saga where Sam Altman was ousted from his own company. Then a lot of things happened, after which he came back triumphantly, and ironically with more power than ever. Fun fact: I was in the process of editing this document when I changed Sam’s title to ex-CEO only to undo that change the very next day. That was peak 2023 behavior.”

Conway’s Law states that organizations will design systems that copy their (communication) structure. This OpenAI soap seems to prove that it works the other way around, too: that a system – in this case, the fast and furious LLMs which are overconfident, have limited context understanding and lack explainability and common sense – can apparently also influence how an organization handles situations.

The only real recurring themes they see are the drivers of this enhanced unpredictability:

  • The Great Depression 2.0: people are struggling financially and mentally, and companies are adapting to that, some better than others.
  • Climate change: (people and) companies no longer have the luxury of ignoring the harsh truth of climate change, because they are starting to feel its direct impact.
  • The Age Of Generative AI: rarely have I experienced such an acceleration of technology as with generative AI and we’re probably just at the very beginning.
  • A Quantum World: on a perhaps more philosophical level, the real world is increasingly demonstrating quantum characteristics like entanglement and superposition and that is making it even more complex and unpredictable. It’s like having our own personal never- ending feedback loop but make it quantum.

“So basically, it’s we, humans of planet earth, who are creating this Never Normal. We have created a geopolitical, capitalist and resource environment that is so entangled and volatile that wars on one end of the world fuel energy and food crises in the other.”

Moments of Joy

Dentsu’s Creative Trends Report 2024 explores the power of hope in a volatile world. At a time where the future has perhaps never felt so uncertain, “The Futures Less Travelled’ urges brands and business to seize the moment to design, innovate and strive for the future they want to see.

Yasuharu Sasaki, Global Chief Creative Officer at Dentsu Creative, said: “Against the backdrop of this uncertain world our report turns to hope as a deliberate choice, to empower us to take control and design our own futures. Through creativity, armed with the powers of technology and storytelling, we hold potential to pave ways for many exciting ‘Futures Less Travelled’, borne of core principles of optimism and ambition”.

The report unpacks five macro trends for 2024 and beyond, each with a number of sub trends to explore. Each trend uncovers unexpected possibilities, such as the power of joy in the face of anxiety, the potency of storytelling as a force for change or the potential of deep local insight to connect diverse communities around the world.

  • Ode to Joy: In a world where joy can seem in short supply, it becomes more important than ever. As we look around at the close of 2023, we see joy, softness and play emerging as protection against a chaotic and volatile world.
    • Joyful Resistance Moments of joyful surrealism emerge in response to a world in chaos, while advertising rediscovers the transformative power of humour.
    • Self-Care as Subversion Be it the refuge of an “Everything Shower”, or the rise of the “soft life” and “lazy girl jobs” in rejection of hustle culture, a quiet rebellion against the fast-paced, high pressure, lifestyle is underway.
    • Unadulterated Play Adult responsibilities are unattainable or being deferred in favour of play, as seen in the boom in “Kidult” toys, the popularity of a basic #GirlDinner or a new wave of experiences that merge art galleries and soft play.
  • The Memes of Production: In a related trend, we see creators reclaiming genres and formats easily underestimated as soft, superficial or trivial as forces for change.
    • From world-building to building better worlds A generation raised on world-building and co-creation are taking those skills and expectations with them into adulthood, with heightened expectations of agency and empowerment.
    • Change the story, change the future Broadcasters and curators are embracing storytelling over factual content to help audiences digest the complexity of our times, recognising the power of new narratives to unlock new possibilities.
    • The meme-ing of life Like parables or cartoons before them, memes and reels have emerged as a way of distilling complex ideas or scathing commentary into brilliantly bite-sized, shareable and endlessly repeatable formats. Be it #Fintok, #Cleantok or social justice, no topic is too complex to go viral.
  • Here we are now:  Perhaps in response to a world that can feel overwhelming, perhaps in response to a cost of living crisis, we see a powerful engagement with all things local and homegrown
    • Empathy in Action Personal truth is a new imperative, seen in the rising popularity of neighbourhood media and the growing importance of indigenous populations in shaping a new and more equitable travel industry.
    • Local Luxury The post-pandemic world relies less on international networks, with an increased appreciation for goods and services closer to home that draw on local traditions and iconography.
    • The Cosy Web A desire for a more rooted sense of place in the world is also being reinforced in the digital space. The idea of the ‘cozy web’ is replacing vast social platforms as a safe space for more intimate online conversations.
  • The Magic in the Machine: As AI both impresses and perturbs, perhaps in equal measure, we ask ourselves, what is the role of technology in augmenting our humanity? How can technology unlock imagination and shape new experiences that bridge physical and virtual world?
    • AImagination With ChatGPT emerging as the fastest growing app in history, we will see not only unfettered imagination but more practical and scaleable use cases designed to enhance the customer experience.
    • In Touch with Humanity Despite exponential leaps forward in artificial intelligence, we see enduring power in experiences that connect technology and humanity through touch, haptics, voice, gesture and beyond.
    • Borderless Commerce Technologies such as Augmented Reality, Image Recognition and virtual worlds are blurring the boundaries between online and offline commerce beyond all recognition.
  • Me, Myself, and Us: Changing demographics prompt us to re-evaluate our relationship with the communities and collectives that define us, while the emergence of “digital twins” poses fascinating questions about identty and autonomy.
    • The “I” in Collective Traditionally individualist Western culture is opening up to a more collective existence, while in contrast, traditionally more collective cultures are exploring a new sense of individuality.
    • My (Inter)generations An increase in intergenerational living is giving rise to a reappraisal and appreciation of the older generation, demonstrated through an increase in fashion brands engaging mature ambassadors and the enduring popularity of the #grandmillennial trend.
    • Digital Doppelgangers The rise and rise of AI also prompts us to explore the nature of our own identity, as artists, gamers and time poor individuals explore the potential of digital doppelgangers to act on their behalf.

Finding hope

Finally Marian Salzman entitles her latest report “Trends for 2024: On Hope’s Edge.” In a world that can seem oppressively bleak, I hope it sparks a bit of optimism, and renewed resolve:

Dear future,

Hope you are well; you aren’t what you used to be.

There is no doubt we are standing on a precipice.

Living in a time of poly-crisis.

Climate change. Culture wars. Paralyzing polarization.
Info wars. Authoritarianism. Military conflict. Economic fragility. Inequity. Disinformation. Disconnection. Bubbles. Hate. And now, with AI, the future is coming so fast that it’s impossible to take in.

Like lampposts that light up a path, trends have helped me make sense of what the future could look like. Throughout my career, I’ve laid out scenarios of probable, predictable, and preferable futures and looked at the data of human behavior and culture to make connections where others had not. But now, I find myself wondering: Are humans still in charge? Or will the unseen hand of AI erode our free will, leading us to do things, buy things, think things without us even detecting any external influence?

With AI, the future is coming faster or, to quote futurist Ray Kurzweil, is “nearer than near.”

Prediction consensus

Bringing this all together, based on over 700 reports, Visual Capitalist summarised what it saw as the major moments and trends for 2024:

  • The S&P 500 makes new all-time highs
  • Robotic workers loom over labor
  • There will be an Al deepfake election scandal
  • Heightened global migration flows
  • Bonds are back! (for real this time)
  • TikTok leads social media e-commerce
  • The U.S. avoids recession again
  • 2024 breaks heat records
  • Inflation stays cool around target levels
  • Lots of lawsuits and regulation around Al
  • Japanese markets offer opportunity
  • Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars won’t end
  • Increased geopolitical risk
  • GLP-1 (weight loss drugs)become commonplace
  • Manufacturing keeps shifting away from China
  • First interest rate cut by mid-year
  • Apple launches Al in its products
  • Diversified portfolios are back in favor
  • De-dollarization efforts continue slowly
  • 2.5% to 3% global GDP growth
  • U.S. tech and chip limits on China intensify
  • Hollywood’s influence continues to wane
  • India outpaces China in GDP growth
  • Generative Al’s next wave is text-to-video
  • Marine shipping faces more volatility

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